Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
US Strikes on Iran Lead to Renewed Demands for War Powers Legislation
Democratic lawmakers condemned President Trump’s unilateral strikes on Iran, labeling them dangerous and unnecessary. They are pushing a Senate‑originated War Powers Resolution to require congressional approval before any further US military action against Iran. The effort has attracted bipartisan backing, with Republicans such as Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul co‑sponsoring the measure. Congressional leaders are demanding an immediate classified briefing on the intelligence and threat assessment behind the attacks.
China Aims 5% Growth; Consumption, Innovation to Drive 2026
China Daily: “Around 5% seen as likely GDP target—Consumption, innovation expected to emerge as key economic engines in 2026” https://t.co/mvmKY53AFy
Exports Jump 29 Pct to Record Feb. High on Surging Chip Demand
South Korea’s exports surged 29% year‑over‑year in February, hitting a record high. The jump was driven primarily by a sharp rebound in semiconductor shipments as global chip demand accelerated. The trade surplus expanded sharply, reinforcing the country’s position as a...
Banking on Nonbanks
The IMF paper documents a rapid rise in non‑bank financial institution (NBFI) subsidiaries within banking groups, now accounting for about 32 % of syndicated loan origination in 2024. When macroprudential policies tighten bank‑level constraints, bank subsidiaries cut lending by roughly 1 %,...
Iran Conflict Sparks Oil Surge and Market Turbulence
Major News to Track on March 1, 2026: 1. US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Khamenei Reported Dead 2. Oil Prices Surge Amid Fears of Strait of Hormuz Disruption 3. Global Stock Markets Brace for Volatility Post-Iran Attacks 4. EPF Announces...
Who Is Ali Shamkhani, Iran Official Reportedly Killed in US-Israel Attacks?
Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s Defence Council secretary and former defence minister, was reported killed in coordinated Israeli and U.S. strikes. The attacks occurred while he was overseeing the latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations that concluded on Friday. Shamkhani, a 70‑year‑old...
Trump Says Iranian Supreme Leader Is Dead
President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike, a statement not corroborated by Tehran. Iranian state media reported Khamenei as “steadfast,” casting doubt on the allegation. The report...
U.S.-Israel Dominance Reshapes Middle East Power Balance
american and israel military escalation dominance is the most important geopolitical story in the middle east post-october 7. no ability of iran or its proxies to counter strikes against them. and nobody willing or capable to support them outside the...
Technology and Power: Why Africa’s Tech Boom Must Prioritise Peace
Africa’s rapidly expanding digital ecosystem is being hailed as a catalyst for growth, yet its future hinges on whether it can be harnessed for peace. Young, connected Africans are already building AI‑driven early‑warning tools and civic platforms that can defuse...
Curb High, Deadly Cost of Early Election Campaigns
Kenya’s political landscape is plagued by perpetual election campaigning, with parties launching rallies for the 2027 poll as early as January 2026—about 1.5 years before the vote. The High Court ruled that any campaign activity outside the official 30‑60‑day window...
KCM Charts a New Era of Investment, Modernisation and Growth
Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) has poured roughly $600 million into its Zambian operations since Vedanta Resources returned, prioritising underground development, infrastructure rehabilitation and AI‑driven safety systems. The capital injection has created more than 2,000 jobs, expanding the workforce to over 14,000...
Middle East Faces “Risk of Being Dragged Into Ring of Fire”, Says Erdogan in Response to US-Israeli Attack on Iran
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed deep sorrow over the joint US‑Israeli strike on Iran, labeling it a breach of Iranian sovereignty. He blamed Israeli provocations for the escalation and condemned Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf states...
Rosatom Confirms Bushehr Nuclear Plant Undamaged as Russia Evacuates 94 People
Rosatom confirmed that Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, operated by Russia, sustained no damage during the recent US‑Israeli military operation. The Russian state nuclear corporation evacuated 94 family members of its staff via Azerbaijan and Armenia after the Russian embassy...
Uncertainty Looms as Shipping Is Hit, Exporters in Wait and Watch Mode
India’s Directorate General of Shipping issued urgent advisories for seafarers in the Gulf region, urging heightened security drills for Indian‑flagged vessels. Global carrier Maersk announced a repeat avoidance of the Red Sea, rerouting services around the Cape of Good Hope....
Iraqi Shi'ite Militia Group Declares All US Bases ‘Legitimate Targets’
Iraqi Shi'ite militia Saraya Awliya al‑Dam announced all U.S. military bases are legitimate targets. The group, aligned with Iran, said its fighters are ready to fire at any American installation in Iraq and beyond. The declaration follows recent Iranian strikes,...
Iran Crisis Puts the Regime's $7.8 Billion Crypto Shadow Economy in Spotlight
Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes have shone a spotlight on Iran’s parallel crypto economy, now estimated at $7.78 billion. Since legalising mining in 2019, Tehran subsidises electricity for licensed operators who sell Bitcoin to the central bank, using it to bypass...
Iran's Future Hinges on Strike Severity and Regime Damage
Lots of scenarios on polymarket on how today’s developments in Iran will play out.. How this unfolds will depend on the extent, intensity, and longevity of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, and, crucially, the damage inflicted not just on physical...
BofA: Slowing Demand to Hit Philippines Growth
Bank of America projects Philippine GDP growth at 4.6% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, falling short of the economy’s 5.5‑6.5% sustainable range. The slowdown is driven by weak household consumption, softer private investment and a tapering of government disbursements...
NFTY: Comparatively Better, Structurally Weak
The First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal Weight ETF (NFTY) provides U.S. investors with an equal‑weight exposure to the Nifty 50 constituents, but its performance is hampered by a weakening Indian rupee. Over the past two decades the equal‑weight index has generated...
Before Trump Bombing, Oman FM Called US-Iran Deal ‘Within Reach’
Hours before President Donald Trump announced air strikes on Iran, Oman's foreign minister Badr Albusaidi appeared on CBS's Face the Nation and declared a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal within reach. He said Iran had pledged zero stockpiling of weapons‑grade material and...
FIIs Pour Rs 22,615 Crore Into Indian Equities in February. Can Iran-Israel Conflict Flip the Trend?
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in February, pouring Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities, with Rs 19,782 crore going to secondary markets and Rs 2,832 crore to primary issues. However, a sharp sell‑off on February 28 saw FIIs dump Rs 7,536 crore, dragging the Nifty and Sensex...
Predict the Next Global Shift with Real‑Time Intelligence
Can you afford not to know what’s coming next? We are entering one of the most significant geopolitical and economic shifts of our lifetime. Power balances are changing. Conflict cycles are accelerating. Markets and global systems are entering a new phase. Global Forecaster...
ECH: Recent Pullback May Be A Sign Of Things To Come
The iShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) is currently rated Hold as analysts cite high risk and an unclear growth outlook for Chile through 2026. While the fund benefits from solid momentum and liquidity, its expense ratio is above average and...
PH Joins Japan-Pacific Defense Dialogue for First Time Amid RAA Push
The Philippines joined the 3rd Japan Pacific Islands Defense Dialogue (JPIDD) in Tokyo, marking its first participation in the forum. Led by Defense Assistant Secretary Marita I. Yoro, the delegation discussed humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, climate change and maritime security....
FRDM: Are Emerging Market Equities Driving The U.S. Market?
The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) uses a "freedom‑weighting" model to pick stocks from 24 emerging‑market nations, deliberately excluding companies with more than 20% state ownership. With $2.97 billion in assets and a 0.49% expense ratio, the fund has consistently outperformed...
Malaysia’s Economy Faces Geopolitical Shock and Record IPO
Major news to track on February 27, 2026: 1. The Friday Power-Play: Malaysia's Economy in the Crosshairs A critical convergence of geopolitics and capital is reshaping Malaysia’s financial landscape this morning. From high-stakes Cabinet decisions on US tariffs to the largest...
Geopolitics Turns Middle East Hotel Diversification Into Risk
Big hotel groups like the Middle East growth story. But geopolitics can turn diversification into concentrated risk overnight. Owners can insure buildings against damage, but not traveler confidence. via @skift https://t.co/hg8LnBTgHd
Argentina’s Milei Scores Win with Controversial Labor Overhaul
Argentina’s Senate approved President Javier Milei’s Labor Modernization Act, a sweeping overhaul that lengthens the workday to 12 hours, cuts severance payouts, eases firing, and curtails union activity. The legislation aims to bring the country’s 40% informal workforce into the formal sector,...
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
The Week in Charts: GDP Growth, National Monetization Plan, IT Troubles
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the December quarter, a deceleration from 8.4% in the prior quarter, driven by weaker agriculture, non‑manufacturing output and reduced government spending. The statistics ministry’s revised base year projects FY25‑26 GDP at 7.6%, up from 7.1%...
Turkey's Lira Faces Pressure Amid Iran War Uncertainty
When markets open tomorrow night, they'll be hunting for winners and losers from war with Iran. Turkey is a big energy importer (red) and its trade deficit excluding gold and energy is near record levels (blue). Turkish Lira will be...
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
Trump, Iran and Geopolitical Mind Games
The Trump administration has escalated threats of military action against Iran while covert nuclear talks continue, and Tehran’s state media claim the pressure is a distraction linked to the Epstein scandal. In parallel, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit...
India Poised to Gain From U.S. Tariff Shift
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1
Global Debt Hits Record High, Driven by China, US
SCMP: "Global debt climbed to a record high in 2025, rising at the fastest pace since the pandemic, with China and the United States accounting for a large share of the increase, according to a new report." https://t.co/GSQFwnXnb0
Pakistan-Afghanistan Live: Iran, EU Urge Dialogue Amid Deadly Clashes
Escalating clashes along the Pakistan‑Afghanistan border have intensified after Taliban‑aligned drones struck Pakistani military camps in Miranshah and Spinwam, prompting Islamabad to launch airstrikes on Afghan cities, including Kabul. The violence shatters the October cease‑fire and revives fears of a...
How America’s Action in Venezuela Guaranteed Guyana’s Oil Future
U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a January 2026 raid, removing the military threat to Guyana’s Essequibo region and clearing the path for the country’s oil expansion. Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with Chevron and CNOOC,...
How Sanctions Can Help Stabilise Global Oil Supply
A G7‑backed price cap on Russian oil, introduced in 2022, is shown to boost near‑term extraction while curbing global oil prices and volatility. The cap neutralizes market power and reduces the option value of holding reserves, shifting producer incentives toward...
Recommended Weekend Readings
The newsletter highlights a resurgence of U.S. geopolitical pressure on China, from Trump’s revived Monroe Doctrine in Latin America to a new 15% global tariff. Demographic data show major population gains in Texas and Florida while New York and California...
Who Runs Venezuela Now? Trump, Oil and the Fight for Power
In January 2026 the United States orchestrated the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, installing an interim administration that quickly aligned with Washington. President Donald Trump has since proclaimed control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, sealing new contracts with U.S....
PTT Eyes Partners Across Value Chain
Thai state‑owned energy group PTT Plc announced it will seek external partners across its value chain, aiming to sell stakes in its oil‑refining and petrochemical subsidiaries—Thai Oil, PTT Global Chemical and IRPC—to global investors. The company also plans to attract...
The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
The 10‑year versus 3‑month Treasury spread has been compressing sharply, as high‑frequency data show a pronounced narrowing. Analysts note that the traditional term premium calculation omits heightened default risk, which is evident in rising U.S. Treasury CDS spreads. When inflation...
Pakistan’s “Open War” Claim Masks Limited Cross‑border Strikes
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared his country to be in “open war” with Afghanistan on Friday, following a series of cross-border strikes between the two neighbors. The reality is more muted. While the Pakistani military is currently conducting strikes against...
Beyond the Third Neighbor: Mongolia-US Ties in an Era of Great Power Competition
The United States and Mongolia marked 39 years of diplomatic ties while deepening their Strategic Partnership with flagship projects such as the $462 million MCC Water Compact and a USTDA‑backed aviation safety program. Mongolia’s recent accession to the Trump‑led Board of...
US Ignores China AI Threat to Corporate Profits
Notable IMO b/c thus far this sell-off narrative seems to be focused solely on how US AI could disrupt the US. No one seems to be worried yet about what happens to US corporate profits if China AI disrupts the US. If...
During Lula’s Visit, South Korea and Brazil Agree to Revive Mercosur Trade Talks
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited Seoul, upgrading the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership and signing ten MOUs across AI, biotech, agriculture, health and security. The summit’s headline outcome was the decision to revive stalled Mercosur free‑trade...
Where We Are in the Storm | ClubGPF Clip with George Friedman
In a recent ClubGPF live discussion, Geopolitical Futures chairman George Friedman revisited his book *The Storm Before the Calm* to argue that America is moving through an 80‑year institutional cycle. He compared today’s political polarization and economic anxiety to three...
GDP Revision May Widen FY27 Fiscal Deficit Ratio, Raise Debt Path Concerns
India's new series GDP data for FY26 shows nominal output ₹345.47 lakh crore, about 3.3% below the budget’s estimate. This revision pushes the FY27 fiscal‑deficit ratio to roughly 4.46% of GDP, up from the projected 4.31%, and lifts the FY27 debt‑to‑GDP ratio...