Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Foreign Issuers Triple Panda Bond Sales to $4 B in March Amid Iran Conflict
Foreign issuers pushed panda bond sales in mainland China to 27.8 bn yuan ($4 bn) in March, more than tripling year‑to‑date volume. The surge comes as the Iran war pushes borrowers toward the yuan‑denominated on‑shore market, marking a record month for foreign fundraising in China.
Production Cuts, Cost Pressures Cloud War-Driven Commodity Windfall
Indonesia is seeing a surge in coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices as the US‑Israeli war on Iran pushes oil to about $100 a barrel, prompting countries to seek cheaper coal and bio‑fuel alternatives. Newcastle coal futures have climbed...
Asia Is Getting Crushed Between Oil Prices and the Dollar
Asian economies from India to South Korea are feeling a double squeeze as oil prices spike and the U.S. dollar reaches its strongest level against regional currencies in two decades. The war in the Middle East has choked the Strait...
Trump to China in May; Iran War; Manus Mess; Mexico Heading for the Trade Doghouse
President Donald Trump announced a two‑day visit to Beijing on May 14‑15, contingent on the Iran war ending by May 13. The trip follows his public statement linking the cease‑fire to his diplomatic agenda. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice...
Gulf Nations Unite for Strait Security, Boost Asian Trade
It's the first time in 60 years you've heard Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar all sing from the same song sheet, saying status quo doesn't work. That's really good for everybody because that's a lot more trade into Asia. That'll...
Trump May Announce Iran Ceasefire Even WITHOUT a Deal, Israeli Media Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a public cease‑fire announcement with Iran as early as Saturday, even if no formal agreement is in place. Israeli officials, cited by outlets such as N12 and Al Qahera, view the move as...
Saudi Arabia Looks to Africa as It Spreads Its Economic Wings
Saudi Arabia has accelerated its push into Africa, pledging $41 bn of investment through Vision 2030 to diversify away from oil. The focus centers on logistics hubs like Djibouti, large‑scale renewable energy and desalination projects, and securing food and mineral supplies....
Gas Crunch Could Spur Solar‑Battery Leap in Emerging Markets
Interesting debate here between JP Morgan's Michael Cembalest and @JigarShahDC on the latest Open Circuit episode. Will the global natural gas crunch accelerate solar + batteries in emerging markets that are considering deeper investments in LNG? Michael argues that comparisons people...
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
This Corner of the EM Bond Market Is Worth Checking Out
Emerging‑market corporate bonds are delivering yields well above U.S. benchmarks, and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB) exemplifies this trend with a 5.07% SEC yield. The actively managed ETF holds a 3.97‑year effective duration, positioning it as an...
Is Cuba Next? | Mario Braga, RANE
The Trump administration has signaled it may target Cuba next, prompting a livestream analysis by RANE’s Latin America analyst Mario Braga. Cuba is grappling with a deepening crisis marked by chronic energy shortages, an economy on the brink of collapse, and...
Italian Looks to Receive LNG From Algeria, Strengthen Energy Cooperation
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced plans to deepen energy cooperation with Algeria during a visit to Algiers, aiming to increase LNG supplies to Italy. The move comes as Italy grapples with prolonged disruptions in Qatar LNG deliveries, which previously...
Asian Economies Feel the Pain of the US-Israel War with Iran
The episode examines how the US‑Israel conflict with Iran is driving a fuel crisis that is hitting Asian economies hardest, especially Southeast Asia, where soaring oil and gas prices are inflating food costs and prompting emergency measures. Albert Park of...
WEBINAR: Saudi Gigaprojects 2026 & Beyond
MEED and HKA are hosting a live webinar on 31 March 2026 to dissect Saudi Arabia’s accelerating gigaproject pipeline. The session will outline the $200 billion‑plus contract backlog across infrastructure, tourism, real‑estate and energy, and examine shifting financing models. Ed James...
Iran‑Israel War Pushes Oil Over $100, Slams Emerging‑Market Stocks and Currencies
The renewed Iran‑Israel conflict has driven Brent crude above $100 a barrel, igniting inflation concerns in oil‑importing emerging economies. The price spike has knocked Asian equity indices and currencies lower while also tightening global gas markets.
RBI Steps In as NDF Outflows and FII Exits Push Rupee Near 94 per Dollar
The Reserve Bank of India intervened through state‑run banks, selling dollars to keep the rupee from slipping past the 94 per dollar barrier. The move came as a wave of non‑deliverable forward (NDF) maturities and foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows...
Southeast Asia: The Next Economic Powerhouse?
Jack Ma, Alibaba founder, says Southeast Asia will eclipse China as the next global economic powerhouse. He cites China’s aging population, regulatory crackdowns, and real‑estate woes, contrasted with the region’s 680 million‑strong, youthful workforce and multilingual talent. Singapore serves as a...
At The Money: Investing in Freedom
The Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) uses a freedom‑weighted index to allocate capital to the world’s freest emerging‑market economies, deliberately excluding autocratic nations such as China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. Managed by Life and Liberty Indexes, the...
Russia's Oil Exports Plunge 40% After Drone Attacks
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
China Prepares for Imminent Hormuz Strait Closure
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.
Russian Baltic Port Halts Crude Loading as Drones Cause Fire
Ukraine launched a massive drone strike on Russia’s Ust‑Luga Baltic port, igniting storage tanks at Novatek’s oil‑product facilities and forcing a halt to crude loadings of roughly 450,000 barrels per day. Russian defenses intercepted 389 drones, the highest number recorded...
2019 Book Predicted Missile‑Drone Dominance
2019 book that predicted the “missiles + drones > naval ships” dynamic we are watching play out in real time in Hormuz. Martyanov’s warnings apparently fell on deaf ears in DC unfortunately. https://t.co/4nsMkPDhTm
IEA Chief to Brief EU Ministers on Iran War Impact
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Global Petrol Prices: Here's a Look at How Much Fuel Cost Has Changed Due to the West Asia War
The West Asia war that began on 29 February 2026 has pushed global petrol prices to an average of $1.41 per litre, with the United States seeing a 30.2% jump to $1.13/L. Australia leads the surge at 42% higher, while Sri Lanka’s...
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
Trump and Xi Set to Meet in Beijing May 14‑15
President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will hold their highly anticipated summit in Beijing on May 14-15, following a delay that brought fresh uncertainty to relations between the world’s largest economies. https://t.co/mGv6Vxm4He
Nigerian Coast Guard Could Unlock N90trn Revenue Annually – PC-NCG
Provisional Committee leader Noah Ichaba says establishing a Nigerian Coast Guard could unlock up to N90 trillion (≈ $196 billion) in annual revenue from oil, gas, fisheries and other maritime activities. The agency would curb piracy, smuggling and illegal fishing while enforcing the...
China Struggles to Pair Surplus with Limited Foreign Asset Growth
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
Hormuz Closure Threatens World Economy, Outweighs US Strikes
...and yet Hormuz remains closed. The US bragging about how many targets we've hit in Iran while Hormuz remains closed is the geopolitical equivalent of "Every kid gets a trophy", because Hormuz closure means the world economy is on the clock. Another...
Nigeria’s Stock Deals Skyrocket to N2.4trn in Two Months
Nigeria’s equity market posted a record‑breaking N2.4 trillion ($1.73 bn) of stock deals in the first two months of 2026, more than double the same period last year. Domestic investors drove 89% of the activity, while foreign participation rose to just over...
China's Primary Oil Sources Revealed in Chartbook
Where China gets is oil from. This and more in the today's Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/o4m9jIk6D4
Biden's China Strategy Prioritizes Tech Competition and Selective Decoupling
Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy An interesting study, some thoughts on US China technology competition portion. A thread. 🧵 https://t.co/Y81X3BGkEJ
China Still on Track to Supplant US as World’s No 1 Economy in 10 Years: Academic
China is projected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy within the next decade, according to a University of Hong Kong political science professor. The forecast draws on IMF and World Bank growth trends that show China’s...
China AI Stocks Surge After State Media Touts Token Boom
China’s AI Stocks Rally as State Media Highlights Surge in Token Usage - Bloomberg https://t.co/gL8DSTlUNg
Emerging Markets Plunge Amid War, Strong Dollar, Commodity Chaos
$EEM -3.44% in ONE session. Emerging markets are getting destroyed. War + strong dollar + commodity chaos = perfect storm. $DXY $EFA https://t.co/WNM0jw3qha
Will the Iran War Revive Russia’s Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline?
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, driving up Asian LNG prices and prompting Beijing to reconsider its heavy reliance on maritime energy imports. Analysts say the disruption revives interest in the stalled Power of Siberia‑2 pipeline, a...
BCA Research Hormuz Crisis Dashboard Now Open to Public
Just a reminder that everyone should check out the BCA Research Hormuz Crisis dashboard, which we have now made available to non-cients. https://t.co/2w3YrSrMuA https://t.co/PRmuyuEG4a
Kafafy for Foreign Policy: Empty Words Don’t Open Straits
The Atlantic Council piece critiques recent U.S. rhetoric, especially former President Trump’s aggressive language toward Iran, for offering no tangible solutions to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. While Tehran threatens to disrupt the roughly $100 billion daily oil flow, Washington’s...
'Every War Has Collateral Impact, There Are Difficulties': Union Minister Piyush Goyal
Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal warned that the ongoing global war, while not involving India directly, creates collateral trade difficulties for the country. He highlighted India’s aggressive trade‑diplomacy, noting free‑trade agreements with 38 developed nations that grant preferential...
Fitch Reaffirms Ghana's B‑ Rating, Adds RR4 Recovery Rating for Investors
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ghana's long‑term sovereign rating at B‑ and introduced a RR4 recovery rating, marking the first time the agency embeds recovery assumptions into its sovereign framework. The move removes Ghana from Under Criteria Observation and keeps a...
India's Growth Outlook Trimmed as Oil Prices Surge and Geopolitical Risks Mount
Analysts including S&P Global, Goldman Sachs and the RBI have lowered India's GDP growth outlook, citing soaring oil import bills, geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. The downgrade reflects widening pressures on the private sector, from corporate tax reforms to...
Foreign Outflows Reach $50.45B in Asian Stocks Amid Iran‑Israel War
Foreign investors have sold a net $50.45 billion of Asian equities in March, marking the largest monthly outflow since at least 2008. The sell‑off is tied to renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities, soaring oil prices and heightened risk‑off sentiment across emerging‑market Asia.
A Generational Investment Window: Taranis Capital Highlights the GCC as the New Epicentre for Tech and Biotech
Taranus Capital, a DFSA‑regulated Dubai firm, says the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has entered a generational investment window for data centres, biotechnology and disruptive technologies. The firm cites sovereign balance sheets, Vision 2030‑style diversification plans and a policy‑driven ecosystem as the...
RI Urged to Honor Contracts, Keep Doors Open in Mineral Tug-of-War
Indonesia stands at a crossroads as the United States and European allies push to onshore critical‑mineral supply chains, challenging China’s dominance in the archipelago’s mining sector. The recently signed US‑Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) could deepen Western ties, but...
China Says Mexico’s Tariff Hikes Constitute ‘Trade Barriers’ After Probe
China’s Ministry of Commerce declared Mexico’s recent tariff hikes on over 1,400 products – ranging from 5% to 50% – a breach of trade rules, affecting more than $30 billion in Chinese exports. The measures, which also include stricter customs procedures...
Pension Funds Snap Up $14B Equities, Top Percentile
GS on Flows via BBG: - Pension funds to buy $14 billion in equities for month/quarter-end rebalancing. - Ranks 75th percentile over the past three years in absolute dollar terms, and 97th percentile on a net basis. https://t.co/PkjmgbNxLG
Oil Falls, Asian Markets Rally as News of US Peace Plan Emerges
The United States delivered a 15‑point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, prompting Tehran to announce safe passage for non‑hostile tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil benchmarks reacted sharply, with Brent sliding to $98 a barrel and WTI to...
The Rise and Fall of China’s Overseas Lending
China’s state‑owned policy banks extended roughly $1 trillion in sovereign loans to developing nations over the past two decades, primarily financing large infrastructure projects. The loans were market‑rate, short‑term, and often secured by commodity‑export revenues, creating a massive exposure for borrower...
EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Launches May 1, Covering 25% of Global GDP
"EU says Mercosur free trade deal will start May 1, accounting for 25% of global GDP" https://t.co/357IyH3KRA https://t.co/tpysXMlyjm
Uganda Economy Expanded 8.5pc in Quarter Ended December
Uganda’s economy expanded 8.5% in the quarter ended December, up from 5.4% a year earlier, driven by strong consumer demand and a construction surge. The $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline is now 80% complete, positioning the country for oil...