Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Hungary Moves to Halt Gas Supplies to Ukraine, Raising Energy Security Stakes
Hungary announced it will cease gas deliveries to Ukraine, intensifying a regional energy standoff. The move threatens Ukraine's power supply as the country awaits a €90 billion EU loan that Hungary is delaying, while broader sanctions and oil market shifts add pressure to the dispute.
Rosatom and Brazil's NBEPar Launch Joint Venture for Critical Minerals Extraction
Rosatom and Brazil's private holding NBEPar have created a joint venture, Nadina Minerals, to extract and process critical minerals in Brazil. The JV will focus on uranium and other high‑technology metals, targeting deposits in Paraná's Figueira region and Bahia's Caculé....
EPA Issues Temporary E15 Waiver to Ease Gas Prices Amid Iran Conflict
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
Belt-Tightening Mode
The Philippines is entering a belt‑tightening phase as a four‑week‑old Middle East conflict drives global oil prices higher, eroding the peso and inflating consumer costs. A temporary suspension of petroleum excise taxes will cut government revenue by roughly $2.5 billion, potentially...
Venture Capitalists Eye Philippines
Venture capital activity in the Philippines surged in 2025, with private‑capital funding rising about 34% year‑on‑year despite a regional downturn. Foxmont Capital Partners alone raised $1.5 billion, up from $960 million in 2023, and e‑commerce now accounts for 67% of the country’s...
Russia Sharing Intelligence with Iran to Help ‘Kill Americans,’ Says EU’s Top Diplomat
EU foreign minister Kaja Kallas accused Russia of supplying Iran with intelligence that enables Tehran to target U.S. military assets in the Middle East. She said Russia also provides drones, facilitating attacks on neighboring states and American bases. The allegation...
After Maduro: Latin America’s Policy Community Reassesses the US-China Balance
The United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting a hard‑power display that many Latin American analysts view as a game changer for regional geopolitics. The move reinforces U.S. coercive dominance while exposing China’s limited military reach,...
E&Ps Flag Iran War in Latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey
The first‑quarter 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows that exploration and production (E&P) companies are flagging the Iran‑Israel war as a major source of volatility. While a few firms note a temporary boost to oil prices and potential profit upside,...
Turkey Likely Used Gold Swap to Fund Lira Defense
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
Costa Rica Colon Hits Two-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
Tazapay Closes $36m Series B to Scale Emerging Market Payments
Tazapay announced the close of a $36 million Series B extension led by Circle Ventures, bringing total Series B funding to $36 million. The round added new investors CMT Digital and Coinbase Ventures alongside existing backers. The capital will fund licensing expansion, accelerate go‑to‑market...
West Asia Conflict to Strain India's FY27 Fiscal Math, Says ICRA
India’s FY 2027 budget faces heightened pressure as the West Asia conflict drives global crude oil to $157 a barrel and natural‑gas prices to $22 per MMBtu, more than double pre‑crisis levels. Higher energy costs are expected to lift fertilizer and...
Saudi Wealth Fund Commits to Global Investments Despite Iran War
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, led by Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, reaffirmed its commitment to global investments despite the rising economic burden of the war with Iran. Al Rumayyan described the kingdom’s macroeconomic and physical position as strong, stable and resilient. He...
The Security Architecture of the Taiwan-US Trade Deal
On February 12, 2026 Taiwan and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), eliminating tariffs on roughly 99 percent of bilateral goods and expanding market access across multiple sectors. Beyond tariff cuts, the pact embeds a security architecture...
Dubai Reaches 7th Spot in Global Financial Centres Index, Boosting Investment Banking Ambitions
Dubai has surged to seventh place in the Global Financial Centres Index, its best ever position and the highest for any Middle East, Africa or South Asia hub. The rise reflects rapid growth at the Dubai International Financial Centre, drawing...
Trump Reschedules Beijing Visit to May 14-15 Amid Iran War, Raising Emerging Market Stakes
President Donald Trump has moved his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to May 14‑15 after postponing it to deal with the escalating war in Iran. The shift underscores a clash between U.S. Middle‑East commitments and its Asia‑Pacific strategy,...
VINCI to Acquire Nine Indian Highway Concessions for $1.8 B
VINCI Highways, the toll‑road arm of French construction giant VINCI, signed an agreement to purchase nine highway concessions in India from Macquarie Asset Management for roughly 150 billion rupees (about $1.8 billion). The deal, covering 700 km of key routes in Andhra Pradesh...
US‑Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Past $100, Sparking Massive Losses for Importers
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, triggering the sharpest macro‑economic shock in weeks. Energy‑importing economies from Kuwait to Japan face double‑digit GDP contractions, soaring import bills and heightened inflation, while Gulf diversifiers...
Trump Eyes China Deal, but Dragging Out Talks Risks Backlash, Warns Former Diplomat
Former U.S. diplomat Stephen Biegun says President Donald Trump will pursue an economic deal with China during his mid‑May visit to Beijing. The agenda is expected to focus on securing large‑scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural and manufacturing products. Biegun...
Blockade Risks Spike Prices, Yet Market Already Priced In
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
SADC REGIONAL PORTS CONFIRM PARTICIPATION IN LANDLINKED ZAMBIA 2026
Land‑linked Zambia 2026 has secured participation from all six key SADC ports—Beira, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lobito, Nacala and Walvis Bay—signaling a major push toward multimodal connectivity. Zambia’s goal of producing 3 million metric tonnes of copper by 2031 will place...
What the Engagement Debate Misses: Visiting China Is Not the Same as Understanding It
The article argues that recent calls for renewed U.S. trips to China overlook a crucial distinction: visiting China does not equal understanding it. While official delegations showcase polished factories and elite think‑tank briefings, they miss the everyday realities of ordinary...
Trump's 6‑Week Iran Deadline Triggers Market Volatility
🚨 TRUMP SETS 4–6 WEEK DEADLINE TO END IRAN CONFLICT President Trump is pushing for a quick resolution within 4 to 6 weeks and has proposed a 15-point peace plan that includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying 1,000...
Iran War Sends Shockwaves Through Energy, Fertilizer and Consumer Goods Supply Chains
The war sparked by Iran’s confrontation with the United States and Israel has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driven Brent crude above $100 a barrel and halted key fertilizer shipments, while India grapples with an LPG shortage that threatens millions...
Russia to Deploy Combat Drones to Iran, Signaling First Direct Military Aid
Russia announced it will begin delivering combat drones to Iran, the first clear evidence of Moscow providing direct military assistance in the regional war. The move heightens tensions in a volatile market and could reshape defense procurement across emerging economies.
Brazil Unveils First Domestically Assembled Supersonic Fighter, the F‑39E Gripen
Brazil has unveiled the F‑39E Gripen, its first domestically assembled supersonic fighter, marking the first time a Latin American nation has produced such an aircraft. The jet is part of a $4 billion deal for 36 fighters, with 15 built locally,...
Iran War: Why a Trump Climbdown Won’t Save Asia’s Economies
A year after President Trump’s trade assault, Asian economies escaped tariff fallout thanks to market pressure and AI‑driven growth, but the Iran‑Israel war has reignited a severe energy shock. Goldman Sachs warns that soaring oil and LNG prices could derail...
China’s $1.2 Trillion Export Surplus Ghost Economy
China’s annual trade surplus now exceeds $1.2 trillion, yet official foreign‑exchange reserves remain around $3 trillion. Export firms split operations between domestic manufacturers and offshore entities in Hong Kong, Singapore or the UAE, invoicing only production costs locally while retaining full profits abroad...
As Iran War Rages, China Links Peace to Economic Growth at Boao Forum
At the Boao Forum for Asia, China’s top legislator Zhao Leji warned that power politics should give way to economic development amid the ongoing US‑Israeli war on Iran. He pledged that Beijing will keep promoting free trade, openness and a...
Asian Stocks Mostly Fall, Oil Climbs Again over Iran War De-Escalation Uncertainties
Asian equity markets slipped on Thursday as uncertainty over a de‑escalation of the Iran war weighed on investor sentiment, with the Nikkei down 0.3%, the Kospi off 1.9% and the Hang Seng falling 1.4%. Oil prices rebounded, lifting Brent crude...
China’s Growth Model Hinges on Weak Consumption, Excess Investment
The East is Red provides a translation of a very interesting essay by Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute. The problem with the Chinese economy, Wang says (and as I have argued for over a decade), is...
Jordan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka,
According to The Economist, the biggest emerging market countries that are being hit by the energy shock are: Jordan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Ethiopia. THE COUNTRIES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/ED3ID96us3
China Open to Reviving South China Sea Oil Talks, but Tells Philippines to 'Show Sincerity'
China signaled that its door remains open for joint oil and gas development in the South China Sea, but it told Manila it must first demonstrate sincerity before talks can resume. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. linked the renewed interest to...
Kazakhstan’s View of China Hardens After Ukraine War
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Yen Carry‑Trade Stress Triggers Kospi Slide, Global Ripple
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
Vietnam and Russia Ink Nuclear Power Plant Deal, Details Not Disclosed
Vietnam and Russia have signed a deal to build a nuclear power plant, marking a new chapter in bilateral energy cooperation. Specifics on capacity, financing and construction schedule were not disclosed, leaving analysts to gauge the partnership's impact on regional...
Middle Eastern Funds Reap Huge Gains on Chinese AI IPOs
Middle Eastern funds have racked up outsize gains from bets on newly-listed Chinese AI companies China uninvestable? Seems like so long ago now... https://t.co/u1DyM6ixKs
AI Boom Fuels China's Record‑breaking Trade Despite Oil Shock
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Dangote Refinery Leverages Middle‑East Crisis to Expand Africa’s Downstream Market
Aliko Dangote’s refinery has lifted its ex‑depot gasoline price to N1,285 per litre – its fifth hike in March – as the U.S.–Israel war on Iran pushes crude to $120 a barrel. The move deepens Dangote’s downstream foothold while sparking...
Budapest, Bratislava Blame Ukraine for Oil Delay, Block EU Loan
Meanwhile, back in the madhouse, Budapest and Bratislava have accused Ukraine of deliberately delaying the resumption of oil flows, triggering a political dispute that has seen Hungary block the EU loan to Kyiv... it's a mess. https://t.co/9Rnn7Wxy82
Iran War Derails Global Economic Optimism
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
Zambia Development Agency Signs Landmark MoU with Imbono to Boost Investment and Job Creation
The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) and global investor Imbono have signed a landmark MoU to channel large‑scale investment into Zambia’s priority sectors. Imbono pledged to invest roughly $2 billion annually across Southern Africa, with a substantial share earmarked for Zambia’s infrastructure,...
Global Trade Faces Fragmentation Amid Geopolitical Upheaval
From Liberation Day to the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and world order going thru an upheaval? Will the world move go from bifurcation or trifurcation to fragmentation? Who will dominant? What would supply chains look like and operate...
Russia Welcomes US Security Aid Tied to Donbas Concession
MOSCOW, March 26 (Reuters) - Russia is pleased about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy statement that the U.S. is making its offer of security guarantees conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country's eastern region of Donbas to Russia, a senior...
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RCEP Explained: Fostering Global Trade Relations
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) entered into force in 2022, creating the world’s largest free‑trade bloc with 15 Asia‑Pacific economies. Together the members represent roughly 30% of global GDP and population, and the pact cuts tariffs across a broad...
Singapore Sees China as Engine for Regional Growth
1/6 Bloomberg: "“Singapore believes China can play a bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said at the Boao Forum. “Its vast domestic market can be a powerful engine of growth for the region.” https://t.co/npbm7nXQEo
China Claims Right to Counter Mexico's Tariff Hikes
1/9 Reuters: "China said that Mexico's trade measures against it, including tariff increases, constitute trade and investment barriers and that it had the right to take countermeasures." rld/china/china-says-it-has-right-retaliate-against-mexicos-tariff-hikes-2026-03-25/
Gulf Crisis Could Cripple Energy Markets Until 2027
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
China's $3T Surplus Hasn't Boosted US Bond Inflows
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...