Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
The EU's Recipe for Trade Deals : Easy on Beef, Tough on Wine
The European Commission has finalized trade agreements with Mercosur, India and Australia, keeping a defensive stance on beef while pushing an offensive agenda for wine, cars and other high‑value products. In the Australia deal, the EU granted a 30,600‑tonne beef quota with long‑term safeguard clauses, while securing protection for over 1,600 EU wine geographical indications. Indian tariffs on premium and mid‑range wines were slashed from 150% to 20‑30%, and car duties were dramatically reduced. Despite farmer backlash, Brussels maintains this dual‑track approach to balance market access and domestic sensitivities.
Bosai's Indonesia Smelter Signals China's Overseas Capacity Surge
Bosai plans an Indonesia aluminium smelting project in East Java, highlighting China’s accelerating overseas capacity strategy. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/bosai-indonesia-aluminium-smelting.html
Xi's Push for Intensive Growth Faces Execution Hurdles
Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). For...
Pakistan to Get $1.2 Billion as IMF, Islamabad Reach Staff-Level Agreement After Month-Long Review
The International Monetary Fund and Pakistan have reached a staff‑level agreement that will make roughly $1.2 billion available to Islamabad, comprising $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The deal awaits IMF Executive Board...
Growth Signals Remain Intact Despite Geopolitical Shocks
Despite ongoing Middle East tensions that have heightened market volatility, global growth signals remain intact. U.S. business investment intentions are improving, with a notable tilt toward AI‑related capital expenditures. Meanwhile, the U.S. consumer continues to spend robustly even as energy...
India’s Calculated Silence on the Iran War
India is deliberately staying out of the Iran‑Israel war, opting for quiet diplomacy rather than acting as a broker. New Delhi cites its strategic‑autonomy doctrine, preferring flexible, low‑visibility engagement over high‑risk mediation. The decision is driven by massive economic stakes...
China’s 90% Model Redefines Global Supply Chains
@KirkusReviews , 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 1933, 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥. Kirkus describes the book as “𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐮𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚’𝐬 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤.” The review highlights how China has built industrial capacity to meet 90%...
China's 15th Plan Signals End of Expansion Era
Many have given great interpretations of China's 15th five year plan. My read is a little different: "For one, lower growth targets will likely be a norm rather than a surprise. Moreover, it implies China is likely at the beginning of...
U.S. Rare‑Earth Production Resumes, Sector Earnings Show Mixed Trends
A U.S. firm has reportedly resumed domestic production of a critical rare‑earth material for the first time in decades, though the company gave no specifics. Meanwhile, Chinese mining and energy groups posted divergent full‑year results, underscoring volatility in the global...
Turkey Leverages Gold Reserves for Liquidity, Defends Lira
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
Japanese Investment in India Hits Record $8.8 B
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Japanese investment in India’s financial sector has hit a RECORD HIGH. In 2025, Japanese firms invested $8.8 BILLION in Indian businesses. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount invested in 2024. GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA. MORE FDI = MORE GROWTH. https://t.co/C27VI2pF62
Bond Sell‑Off Accelerates as Yields Spike, Investors Flock to Chinese Fixed‑Income
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2‑year rate hitting 3.98% and the 10‑year at 4.39%, triggering the sharpest bond‑market sell‑off since the Iran conflict began. Capital rotated into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds, signaling a new safe‑haven preference amid heightened...
Thailand Secures Safe Strait of Hormuz Passage for Tankers
Thailand has reached a deal with Iran to allow Thai tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. “An agreement has been reached to allow Thai oil tankers to transit safely through the Strait of Hormuz," Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said...
India's Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israel Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
Oil Prices Drop as Trump Extends Iran Cease‑Fire Deadline to April 6
U.S. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for a potential Iran energy deal to April 6, pausing attacks on Iranian energy sites. The move pulled Brent crude down to about $105‑$108 a barrel and WTI to $92‑$94, marking the steepest weekly...
Asian Equities Tumble as Iran‑Israel War Spikes Oil Above $100 a Barrel
Asian equities fell sharply Friday as the Iran‑Israel war intensified, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel and triggering the worst Wall Street session since the conflict began. Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong led the declines, while bond yields...
Market Underestimates Ukrainian Hits on Russian Fuel Exports
Feels to me like the effects of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and diesel export capacity is underappreciated by the market.
China Chip Sector Targets 80% Self-Sufficiency with US in Its Sights
China’s semiconductor industry has set an ambitious goal to achieve 80% domestic self‑sufficiency by 2030. The target was announced by a coalition of 13 leading Chinese chip firms, signaling a coordinated effort to close the technology gap with the United...
Insufficient Source Data to Report on $52 Bn Emerging‑Asia Equity Outflow
The requested story about a record $52 bn withdrawal from emerging‑Asia equities due to a Middle‑East oil‑price shock cannot be produced because none of the eight supplied sources mention capital flows, oil prices, or related market activity.
India Projects >7% FY27 Growth as Assocham Defies Global Slowdown Risks
Industry body Assocham says India will grow above 7% in FY27, buoyed by consumption and investment, even as the OECD projects a slower 6.1% pace. Analysts warn that soaring oil and gas prices and fertilizer supply shocks could strain the...
The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region
In this episode, RAINN analyst Chase Blazik explains how the Iran war is reshaping security and energy dynamics across the Asia‑Pacific. He details the recent Washington summit between Japan’s Prime Minister Takeichi and President Trump, highlighting Japan’s delicate balancing act...
Weighing Recession Probabilities
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts discuss the rising probability of a U.S. recession amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, higher oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Using a random‑forest model that aggregates dozens of leading indicators—especially labor market...
Afreximbank Pushes Industrialisation as Path to Economic Sovereignty
The African Export‑Import Bank will make industrialisation the centerpiece of its 33rd Annual Meetings in El Alamein, Egypt, from June 21‑24. The gathering will convene heads of state, policymakers, financiers and private‑sector leaders to design projects that shift Africa’s trade model from...
News From the Frontier: Africa Leads Emerging Market Bond Revival
The episode examines the surprising resurgence of emerging‑market bond issuance, led by African issuers such as Angola and telecom tower firm Helios, while Central‑Eastern European and Middle‑Eastern markets remain largely dormant due to war‑related volatility. George Collard explains why lower‑rated...
India, US Review Next Steps in Trade Pact Talks
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met on the sidelines of the WTO’s 14th ministerial in Yaounde to review progress on a bilateral trade agreement announced in February. The parties reaffirmed a March signing target...
Epic Fury Oil Shock: Repositioning Your Portfolio for War
Operation Epic Fury, the US‑Israeli offensive against Iran, has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking roughly 20% of global crude oil flow and a host of other critical commodities. The closure also traps 22% of urea and ammonia, 24%...
Strategy Calls for Hub Luring Wealth Capital
Thailand’s Association of Investment Management Companies (AIMC) is pushing a private‑trust framework and new asset‑management legislation to turn the country into a regional hub for wealth capital, especially from the Middle East. The plan includes Singapore‑style tax incentives, a 10‑year...
Hormuz Ship Traffic Stays Frozen Despite Move to Start Fees
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually halted four weeks into the Iran‑Israel conflict, with only six vessels recorded on March 26 versus the pre‑war average of nearly 60 daily transits in 2025. Iran announced a toll system demanding...
The Eastern Mediterranean Won’t Replace Russian or Gulf Gas—But It Can Be Europe’s Energy Shock Absorber
Europe has cut Russian gas imports by 90% since 2021 and aims to end them by November 2027. To replace the lost volume, the continent now relies on LNG, exposing it to global shipping chokepoints. The Eastern Mediterranean basin, with...
Iran Conflict Spurs Global South Renewable Shift, Canada Lagging
Why Energy Shocks Like the Iran War Are Accelerating Electrification Canada gets it wrong. Iran war is encouraging Global South (inc Asia) to switch from oil/LNG to renewables/electrotech. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/7IbLVXk81Ow
Press Note 3 of 2020 Amendment Provides for Beneficial Ownership Definition: Govt to Parliament
The government amended Press Note 3 of 2020 to define beneficial ownership for investors from countries sharing a land border with India, allowing them up to 10% equity via the automatic route and a 60‑day approval window. Foreign direct investment reached a...
Alaska Ore Tests Beat Military‑Grade Specs, Raising Strategic Mineral Stakes
Independent testing of ore from a newly identified Alaskan deposit found it exceeds military‑grade quality thresholds. The discovery could reshape U.S. supply chains for defense‑critical minerals, intensifying the clash between mining advocates and conservation groups.
Dubai Climbs to 7th Spot in Global Financial Centres Index, Highest Ever Ranking
Dubai has surged to seventh place in the Global Financial Centres Index, its highest position ever and the top ranking for any centre in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. The rise reflects rapid growth at the Dubai International...
U.S. Shifts to Ground Operations in Iran Conflict, Deploys Paratroopers
The United States is moving from air strikes to ground operations in its escalating war with Iran, dispatching Army paratroopers and weighing a larger troop surge. The shift, reported by multiple outlets, raises questions about the conflict’s trajectory and its...
Logistical Complications for Russian Energy Exports
Russia's oil export revenues have resumed growth after four years of decline, buoyed by higher energy prices and a temporary U.S. sanctions easing. However, the country's ability to capitalize on this rebound is constrained by aging western pipelines and ports...
Xi Prioritizes Innovation, Targets TFP Over GDP
My take on the Chinese five year plan and the rise of "high quality" as approximating a "Xi Doctrine" on the economy - for @CarnegieEndow Emissary @CarnegieChina The TL:DR version: - For Xi, innovation-driven economy > consumption driven economy. -...
Iran War's Market Ripple: Key Signposts From Luke Gromen
No better timing than to have @LukeGromen as my guest tonight on The Danny Moses Show @scrippsnews at 7PM ET. We discuss the impact that the war in Iran is having on global markets & what we should be watching....
WTTC Chairman Manfredi Lefebvre Sounds Alarm: Latin America’s Trillion-Dollar Future Hinges on Fixing Infrastructure Failures
At the Future Investment Initiative in Miami, WTTC Chairman Manfredi Lefebvre warned that Latin America’s trillion‑dollar growth prospects depend on fixing chronic infrastructure gaps. The council estimates the region must invest about $150 billion each year—roughly 2.4 % of GDP—to close shortfalls...
Trump Tariffs Are Strangling US‑China Trade, Data Shows
WSJ: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade (with AMAZING charts) by @hannahmiao_ & @CloudberryRoque 🤓 👉🏻 https://t.co/vNeIUWWiqm https://t.co/GB3I7d35ly
Houthis Warn Red Sea Escalation Amid Iran War
Houthis Threaten Red Sea Escalation as Iran War Risks Spreading to Second Shipping Chokepoint https://t.co/9Nypu2iQHO
US Envoy Announces Upcoming Iran‑US Talks
US special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff says that Iran and US will hold talks soon https://t.co/TVVUeaYqaZ
Bank Flows Explain $3 Trillion China Surplus‑Reserve Gap
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...
Markets Misjudge Risks: War Threats Underestimated, Private Credit Overrated
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
How the U.S. Can Counter China’s Tech Dominance
Rebecca Fannin, author of THE NEW TECH TITANS OF CHINA on how the U.S. can respond to China’s growing lead in several tech areas including batteries, energy, EVs and AI. https://t.co/DFOk3yJikn
India's Export Bans Could Sway Global Rice, Sugar Prices
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
US Assures Allies: No Immediate Iran Invasion Plans
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
Cold War with China Underm
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating
Insights Into China's New Five-Year Plan
An assessment of China's new Five-Year Plan from my @CarnegieEndow teammate @damienics who directs @CarnegieChina in Singapore.
Only US and China Can Police Hormuz Strait
This is important especially since US and China are the only countries able to ‘police’ the strait of Hormuz