Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Fitch Keeps Israel Credit Rating at A with Negative Outlook as War Costs Mount
Fitch reaffirmed Israel’s sovereign credit rating at A with a negative outlook on March 27, 2026, citing escalating war costs and fiscal strain. The agency highlighted that the ongoing Operation Lion’s Roar and northern front clashes forced Israel to exceed its budget framework, widening the 2026 deficit to an estimated 5.7% of GDP. Fitch warned that public debt could rise to 72.5% of GDP by 2027, well above the median for A‑rated nations, and that a fragmented political environment may delay needed consolidation. An upgrade to a stable outlook is now contingent on post‑election fiscal reforms.
Rathbones AM Broadens Lux Sicav with EM Equity Strategy
Rathbones Asset Management launched the Rathbone Sicav Global Emerging Markets Equity fund, expanding its Luxembourg‑based SICAV platform. Managed by former GAM professionals Tim Love and Joaquim Nogueira, the active fund will hold 80‑120 stocks, using bottom‑up selection and top‑down screens...
The Global Implications of China’s 5-Year Plan AI Ambitions
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) places AI and cybersecurity at the core of its strategy to become a global tech superpower. The plan accelerates deployment of Chinese AI models, especially open‑source offerings like DeepSeek R‑1, while embedding strict information‑control mandates aligned...
ECB Vice President De Guindos Warns Middle East War Could Spark Systemic Stress in Euro Markets
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the ongoing Middle East war could trigger systemic stress across financial markets, jeopardising investor sentiment in Europe. He cautioned that while spillovers to the euro‑area have so far been contained, the conflict...
Indian Rupee Hits All‑Time Low of 94.70 per Dollar Amid West Asia Tensions and Oil Surge
The Indian rupee breached 94.70 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level ever, as Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel and geopolitical risk in West Asia intensified. Foreign portfolio investors dumped roughly $9.5‑$10 bn of Indian equities, while the...
Chinese Market Regulator Tells Firms to Focus on Healthy Competition Overseas
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation urged major exporters such as BYD and CATL to adopt healthier, fair‑competition practices as they expand abroad. The regulator highlighted the need to curb “involution‑style” competition that squeezes margins and forces costly overseas moves....
Leave Your Valuables on the Way Out
Turkey’s central bank sold roughly $3 billion of gold last week, cutting its reserves to 772 tonnes – the steepest weekly decline since August 2018. The sale is part of $26 billion in foreign‑currency sales since the Iran‑related war began, wiping about $35 billion from...
Boao and Qionghai Where Global Dialogue Meets Free Trade
From March 24‑27, Boao’s Dongyu Island Cultural Park hosted the “Boao: Where the World Meets, Qionghai: Where Free Trade Thrives” city exhibition, the first showcase since Hainan Free Trade Port’s island‑wide customs launch. The event highlighted Qionghai’s role as a...
Russia Survived without SWIFT, but that Doesn’t Mean It Won
Russia’s banks were cut off from the SWIFT network in 2022, prompting the country to rely on its domestic messaging system, SPFS. While SPFS kept internal payments flowing and softened the immediate shock, it did not replicate SWIFT’s global reach,...
Emerging Markets Optimism Hits Record High, but Geopolitical Risks Temper Outlook
HSBC’s latest Emerging Markets Sentiment Survey shows optimism reaching a record high, with 68% of investors bullish on EM assets over the next three months, up from 63% previously. The survey recorded zero bearish responses, marking the 14th consecutive reading...
U.S.–Indonesia $33 Billion Trade Deal Draws ‘Extractive Colonialism’ Criticism Over Mining Expansion
The United States and Indonesia signed a $33 billion trade agreement that eases U.S. access to Indonesia’s critical minerals and fossil‑fuel sectors. Activists and watchdogs label the pact ‘extractive colonialism,’ warning it could accelerate mining, weaken export controls and deepen environmental...
Deribit Bitcoin Options Expiry Looms as Middle East Tensions Spike Crypto Volatility
Deribit, the leading crypto derivatives exchange, is set for a large Bitcoin options expiry this week, with industry estimates hovering around $14 billion. The event coincides with a sharp rebound in oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk from the Middle East,...
Next Africa: Why War In Iran Risks a Farming Crisis (Podcast)
The Bloomberg Next Africa podcast warns that the war in Iran could trigger a farming crisis across the continent. Iran supplies a large share of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizers, and conflict threatens to choke off those exports. African growers, already...
Southeast Asia Revives Nuclear Plans to Power AI Data Centers Amid Oil Shock
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines are accelerating nuclear power projects to meet soaring electricity needs of AI data centers, a shift driven by soaring oil prices from the Iran war. The region could contribute roughly 40 GW of new...
The Rise of the Chinese Platform State
China’s recent Two Sessions underscored technology as the cornerstone of its economic strategy, signaling a shift from a purely top‑down innovation model to a “platform state” approach. In this model, the government acts like a digital platform, shaping market rules...
Deep Dive: Strait of Hormuz’s Closure Will Hit Every Economy
The United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly 20% of global oil shipments and disrupting a wide array of petrochemical, industrial gas, and refined product flows. Prices for key commodities such...
Trump’s Iran War Pushes India to Rekindle Old Friendship with Russia
India is moving to revive its energy partnership with Russia, negotiating a direct LNG supply deal despite the risk of violating Western sanctions. The talks follow a recent surge in Russian crude purchases, which could rise to 40% of India’s...
Global Risk Concentrates in Few Nations, Demands Selective Exposure
Global risk isn’t evenly distributed. In 2026, a small group of countries - including Belarus, Lebanon, Sudan, and Venezuela - sit at the top of the global risk ranking, with premiums around 30.9%. At the other end, only 19 countries globally have risk levels below...
China Launches Trade Probes in Response to U.S. Actions
China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit Beijing responds to investigations by the U.S. that could raise tariffs @pstAsiatech: yes, Beijing will respond to every measure coming from within Beltway, every one.. https://t.co/XZraiO7f8W
FA at 30: AIA's Mark Konyn on Asia's Fast-Changing Financial Ecosystem
AIA’s group chief investment officer Mark Konyn discussed how Asia’s financial ecosystem has accelerated change over his three‑decade career. He highlighted how regional crises—from the 1997 Asian financial crisis to the COVID‑19 pandemic—reshaped risk management and regulatory frameworks. Konyn emphasized China’s...
China Plays the Long Game Against Trump
How China Is Playing the Long Game With Trump China is always playing the long game... https://t.co/ca5y4Jpyct
Iran Conflict Dims Short‑Term Expectations, Survey Shows
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran, Particularly Over Short Run" - UMichigan sentiment survey https://t.co/w6h4uxLJ0V
Geoeconomic Headwinds Fracture ASEAN Neutrality
Indonesia signed the U.S. Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Feb. 19, 2026, obligating Jakarta to align its domestic regulations with Washington’s security agenda. The pact challenges Indonesia’s long‑standing “free and active” foreign‑policy doctrine and threatens ASEAN’s reputation as a neutral,...
Iran Redirects COSCO Vessels, Signaling Hormuz Tension
Looks like all is not well between Iran and China/COSCO as two of their ships were turned around at the toll gate. "COSCO’s ships are a new gauge for Hormuz crisis" https://t.co/i9oWIPHi5V https://t.co/266IvJBUES
Indian Stocks Slide 9% Monthly, Prompting Exit Questions
INDIA: stocks down another -2% overnight to -9.2% in the last month - who gets you out of these country exposures? $INDA https://t.co/pQ984qpHQx
Rising Oil Prices and Recession Fears Prompt Call for Long‑Term Investing
Oil prices have surged as the war in Iran pushes fuel costs higher, reigniting recession concerns across equity markets. Analysts warn that short‑term volatility may mask the benefits of disciplined, long‑term portfolio construction.
China Mulls Loosening Investor Limits to Aid Banks
Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling from an economic slowdown." https://t.co/HCdl6eFRCX
Iran Gets US 15‑Point Ceasefire Plan via Pakistan, Rejects Talks with Trump
Iran has been handed a 15‑point cease‑fire proposal from the United States via Pakistan, but Tehran has ruled out any direct talks with President Donald Trump. The plan, whose details remain largely confidential, touches on sanctions relief, nuclear roll‑back and...
China Bonds See Inflows as Safe‑Haven Demand Rises Amid Global Bond Sell‑Off
Investors shifted capital into Chinese sovereign and corporate bonds as safe‑haven demand surged, while U.S. Treasury yields moved sharply amid Middle‑East tensions. The reallocation highlights a growing appetite for China’s fixed‑income market despite limited disclosed inflow figures.
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9089 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
S&P Global Lifts India FY27 Growth Forecast to 7.1% Amid Private Investment Rebound
S&P Global has raised its forecast for India's fiscal year 2027 GDP growth to 7.1%, up from its prior estimate. The upgrade reflects a rebound in private investment, resilient consumer spending and export performance, though the agency cautions that volatile...
Iran Ships 1.5M Barrels Daily, Prices Surge
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Iraq Gas Field Project Disrupted by Regional Conflict
Progress on Iraq’s Akkas gas field development has stalled as security concerns tied to the US‑Israel war with Iran forced the evacuation of SLB’s foreign staff. The U.S.‑based contractor was hired in July 2025 to lift output to an initial...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Raises Risks to Japan's Aluminum Supply
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatens Japan’s aluminum supply chain, as the country imports roughly 20% of its metal from the Middle East. The closure disrupts shipments of primary ingots that feed industries ranging from beverage cans to bullet‑train components....
China's Undersea Mapping Push Fuels Defense Data Market
China has accelerated a multi‑year undersea mapping campaign, deploying 42 research vessels and hundreds of sensors across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic oceans. Experts say the data harvest is poised to become a lucrative commodity for the country's defense industry,...
Australian, New Zealand Dollars Slip Toward Support as Middle‑East Oil Shock Hits Asia‑Pacific
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged toward key support zones after Brent crude plunged 6% to under $99 a barrel amid renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities. Energy‑price volatility and broader regional security worries are weighing on Asia‑Pacific currencies, setting the stage for...
China Poised to Top Global Economy by 2035 Amid Domestic Consumption Woes
China is on track to become the world’s largest economy by 2035, driven by rapid tech expansion and a 7% boost to its 2026 defence budget, while household consumption remains sluggish. The dual dynamic shapes global markets and raises questions...
Asian Stocks Plunge as Oil Near $100 and Iran‑Israel Tensions Escalate
Asian equity markets tumbled Thursday as Brent crude hovered around $100 a barrel and Tehran rejected a U.S. cease‑fire proposal. South Korea’s KOSPI slumped more than 3%, while Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also posted declines, underscoring the...
The Clues Binance Missed That Led to Billions in Crypto Flowing to Iran
The New York Times uncovered that Binance’s vendor Blessed Trust moved roughly $1.2 billion through the exchange, ultimately reaching entities tied to Iran. Internal compliance investigators later identified an additional $1.7 billion in sanction‑evading transfers, but Binance only severed ties with Blessed Trust in...
Data Centers en América Latina: Cinco Países Concentran El 80% De Las Infraestructuras Y Lideran La Inversión
Latin America and the Caribbean host 533 data centers, but five countries—Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia—account for roughly 80% of the total. Brazil leads with 204 facilities and expects $37 billion from TikTok’s upcoming Pecém hub, while Chile and Mexico...
SARB’s Short
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Mexico's Rate Cut Highlights EM Outpacing Developed Central Banks
mexico just cut rates 25bps (split 3-2 vote) some DM central banks already getting outclassed by an EM
Middle East’s Fundraising Oasis Awaits GPs Who Are Willing to Commit
Private equity fundraising in the Middle East is entering a boom, with capital commitments reaching multi‑billion‑dollar levels. Sovereign wealth funds and regional investors are increasingly favoring general partners who demonstrate deep, long‑term commitment to the market. The region’s regulatory reforms...
Embrace Latin America Pullback in Emerging Bull Market
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Goldman Sachs Cuts India Rating, Nifty Target to 25,900
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
UAE Advances Alternative Trade Route to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
The United Arab Emirates is fast‑tracking a new trade corridor that connects its eastern Khorfakkan port in Sharjah to Saudi Arabia’s Dammam, allowing cargo to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The corridor combines maritime access via the Gulf of Oman...
Asian Nations Dumped
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Oil Price Surge Is Hurting African Economies: Scholars in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa Take Stock
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil. The disruption has sent fuel costs soaring across Africa, prompting...
Nigerian Naira Falls in Parallel Market as FX Inflows Jump 45% to $4.4 Bn
Nigeria’s parallel‑market naira slipped sharply even as foreign‑exchange inflows surged 45% to $4.4 bn in February. The rally in offshore portfolio flows and a sharp rise in central‑bank dollar sales highlight a liquidity boost that is not enough to offset structural...