Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Sustained Rise in Crude Oil Prices May Hit Remittances, Stoke Inflation: Finmin Report
The Finance Ministry’s latest Monthly Economic Review warns that sustained crude‑oil price hikes could dampen India’s remittance inflows, which rose to $36.9 billion in Q3 FY26. Gulf Cooperation Council nations, accounting for about 38% of total remittances, face fiscal strain from higher oil bills, potentially moderating future transfers. The report also flags upside risks to inflation, with February retail CPI climbing to 3.21% amid rising fuel and food costs. Combined, these pressures could weigh on the current account and the rupee’s stability.
CoM 2026, Committee of Experts - Opening Remarks by Deputy Executive Secretary Mama Keita
Deputy Executive Secretary Mama Keita opened the 2026 Committee of Experts, emphasizing the theme “Growth through innovation: harnessing data and frontier technologies for economic transformation in Africa.” She highlighted that while Africa’s GDP has averaged 3.5% growth since 2000, productivity gains...
South India Will Lead the March to a $5-10 Trillion Economy: CII Chairman
South India is positioned to drive India’s march toward a $5‑10 trillion economy, according to CII Southern Region chairman P Ravichandran at the Kochi convention. The six southern states generate roughly 38‑40% of the nation’s merchandise exports, about $124 billion, and have been...
One Month Into Iran War, only Hard Choices for Trump
One month after the U.S.-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, President Donald Trump is wrestling with two stark choices: negotiate a rapid exit or intensify military action that could drag the United States into a prolonged conflict. Iran’s missile and drone...
Houthis Missile Attacks on Israel Widen Middle East War
Iran‑backed Houthi rebels fired a barrage of cruise missiles and drones at Israeli military sites, marking their first direct strike in the month‑long Middle East conflict. The attacks heightened concerns about the war spilling into the Red Sea, where Houthi‑targeted...
Iran War, Crude, Rupee Among 8 Factors to Steer D-Street in Holiday-Shortened Week
The NSE Nifty slipped 2.09% to 22,819.60, trading below its 21‑hour EMA as bearish momentum builds. A month‑long Iran‑Israel conflict has driven WTI crude to $101 per barrel and Brent to $115, stoking global inflation worries. Indian equities faced heavy...
Middle East War Erases $100 Billion From Luxury Brand Valuations
The month‑long Iran war has stripped about $100 billion from the market value of leading luxury groups, with LVMH and Hermès shares falling 16% and 20% respectively. Analysts warn the hit could depress quarterly growth and deepen the sector’s bearish sentiment.
India Brewers Brace for Bottle and Can Shortages as Middle‑East Conflict Hits Packaging Supply
The Brewers Association of India has warned that the war in Iran is choking gas supplies, driving up glass bottle prices by about 20% and prompting a request for 12‑15% retail price hikes. The shortage threatens both beer and bottled‑water...
Israeli Airstrike in Southern Lebanon Kills Three Journalists Covering the War
Israel said its airstrike on a media vehicle in southern Lebanon killed three Lebanese journalists covering the conflict. The strike, justified by Israel as targeting a Hezbollah intelligence source, comes as U.S. Marines arrive in the region and the war...
Houthis Fire First Missiles at Israel, Raising Red Sea Trade Risk
Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched a barrage of ballistic missiles toward southern Israel on Saturday, marking their first strike in the month‑long Middle East war. Israel’s military intercepted the projectile, while the attack reignited concerns over Red Sea shipping routes that...
Tyme Co‑Founder Nate Clarke to Share Multi‑Country Bank Playbook at StrictlyVC Athens
Tyme co‑founder and GoTyme Bank CEO Nate Clarke will speak at StrictlyVC Athens 2026, where he will detail how the fintech grew to serve more than 17 million customers across South Africa and the Philippines. The session highlights the leadership tactics...
Mexico Slashes Rates as Peso Slides Past 18 per Dollar Amid Oil Spill Fallout
The Bank of Mexico voted 3‑2 to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, even as headline inflation rose to 4.63%. The move sent the peso past 18 per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since December,...
Energy Prices Surge to New Highs, Gasoline Tops $4 as West Asia Conflict Tightens Budgets
West Asia hostilities have driven crude oil to record levels, sending U.S. gasoline past $4 per gallon and inflating consumer costs. India responded with a 38,000‑tonne fuel shipment to Sri Lanka and an ethanol push, while the finance ministry warned...
ASEAN Leaders Set May Summit to Tackle Fuel, Food and Migration Amid Middle East Conflict
ASEAN heads will convene in May for a streamlined summit focused on securing fuel supplies, stabilising food prices and addressing migrant worker issues. The meeting comes as the Middle East conflict fuels volatility across Asian equity markets, making the agenda...
Europe Stuck Between China Dependency and US Reliance
Yes, this is the key question right now. And the answer is No because Europes economy depends on China, but also Yes, because we need American defense, energy, tech and trade. The alternative is Russian energy, Chinese Tech, defense and Trade So...
China-U.S. Parity Threatens Europe, Gulf Eyes New Alliance
These are hard words, and will create resentment. Fact of the matter is that they are true. China and US are equals and in a few years China could be stronger than US in many ways. Therefore Dunroe doctrine is...
RBI Caps Banks' Net‑open FX Exposure at $100 Million as Rupee Falls 4%
The Reserve Bank of India imposed a $100 million net‑open foreign‑exchange position ceiling on domestic banks, a move that comes as the rupee weakened 4% against the dollar. Banks warned of mark‑to‑market losses and have asked the RBI for temporary relief,...
India Gains Global Market Share Across Industries
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
Houthis May Keep Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait Open
In fairness this means the Houthis are also considering not closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, guys. https://t.co/ZiiVU0cw8C
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan Prioritizes Self‑Reliance and AI, Sparking Global Economic Ripples
China unveiled its 15th Five‑Year Plan, a 2026‑2030 roadmap that puts self‑reliance, AI, and advanced manufacturing at its core. The plan coincides with profit turnarounds at AI firms like XtalPi and the launch of China Mobile’s Global Intelligence Center, signaling...
Foreign Investors Dump $52 Billion From Asian Emerging‑Market Stocks in March, Record Outflow
Foreign investors sold roughly $52 billion of Asian emerging‑market equities excluding China in March, the biggest monthly withdrawal on record. The outflow eclipses the 2020 pandemic sell‑off by 49% and the June 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war outflow by 148%, raising alarms about capital‑flow...
The Illusion of the BRICS as a «Bric-À-Brac»: Why the West Is Wrong to Underestimate the Resilience of BRICS+
The article argues that Western portrayals of the BRICS+ as a disjointed "bric-à-brac" underestimate its growing resilience, especially as India assumes the 2026 presidency amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite criticism over heterogeneity, the bloc is expanding its economic infrastructure through...
UN Launches Task Force as COSCO Ships Turn Back, Oil Hits Three‑year High Amid Hormuz Crisis
The United Nations announced a new task force to safeguard Strait of Hormuz trade as two COSCO container ships were forced to retreat, and oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2022. The moves highlight mounting pressure on global...
Nepal Police Detain Former Prime Minister Over September Protests, New Govt Seeks Stability
Nepal police have taken former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai into custody over protests that erupted in September, citing alleged involvement in unrest. The arrest comes as newly elected premier Balendra Shah emphasizes cooperation with India to steady the country’s political...
India's Economic Ties with Azerbaijan Improve Despite Political Drift
India’s outbound investments to Azerbaijan surged in 2025, reaching $56.0 million, a 29.8% increase over the prior year. Cumulative Indian capital in Azerbaijan has climbed from $480 million in 2016 to $1.26 billion by mid‑2025, reflecting a decade‑long expansion. While Azerbaijan assisted in...
Oil Prices Surge as Middle East Tensions Threaten Energy Security
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to halt oil shipments to Cuba and a high‑level call involving Elon Musk, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open have pushed global oil prices to multi‑year highs....
Pro-Ukraine Lawmakers Call Out Russian Delegation’s Visit to Washington
A congressional delegation led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna hosted a Russian Duma delegation at the U.S. Capitol, sparking sharp bipartisan backlash. Critics, including Democrats and some Republicans, called the meeting a security risk and a moral misstep amid Russia's...
India Says Iran War Could Hit Growth, Widen Fiscal Deficit
India’s government warned that the ongoing war in Iran could dampen economic growth and widen the fiscal deficit as energy and shipping disruptions ripple through multiple sectors. The March economic review highlighted higher input costs and supply constraints as near‑term...
Africa Can Leverage Remittances for Growth Through Fintech
In 2024, formal remittances to Sub‑Saharan Africa reached about $100 billion, with Nigeria alone receiving roughly $21 billion—around 10 % of its GDP. Policymakers see the challenge of turning these consumption‑driven inflows into savings and investment, a task that hinges on scaling Africa’s...
Iran’s Water Weapon Against the Gulf
The Gulf states rely on desalination for the vast majority of their drinking water, producing roughly 40% of the world’s desalinated supply. Amid the US‑Israel conflict with Iran, Tehran has warned it will strike regional water‑treatment facilities if the United...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
U.S.–Indonesia Trade Deal Sparks Outcry Over Mining Expansion and Fossil‑Fuel Extraction
Environmental activists have condemned the U.S.–Indonesia trade agreement signed on Feb. 19, saying it paves the way for expanded mining and fossil‑fuel extraction in Indonesia. The deal, valued at $33 billion, includes provisions that could loosen export bans on raw minerals and...
Hormuz Controls Global Economy; Oil Flow Secures War Viability
Let me be clear @LukeGromen: Hormuz is the global economy. If you couldn’t secure oil flows, you had no business starting a war that could put the world here. No aspirations. Just hard reality.
Iran War Erases $12 Trillion, Surpassing Three Major Economies
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
MercadoLibre Beats Estimates, Emerges Safe‑Haven as U.S. Markets Turmoil
MercadoLibre reported net revenue up 45% year‑over‑year, outpacing analyst forecasts and positioning the Latin‑American e‑commerce leader as a defensive play for investors rattled by U.S. market turbulence. The company’s fintech arm, Mercado Pago, now serves more than 78 million users and...
China’s Subsidies Surged Post‑Made in China 2025, Trade War
Industrial subsidies in China have increased dramatically. Notably, there was a sharp acceleration in subsidy levels following the launch of the “Made in China 2025” programme in 2015 and the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. https://t.co/eFhIfiECI4
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
India's Forex Reserves Slip Below $700bn as Gold Loss Triggers $11.4bn Drop
India's foreign exchange reserves fell $11.4 bn to $698 bn in the week ended March 20, driven by a $13.5 bn plunge in gold holdings as global prices slipped 10%. The decline pushed the rupee to fresh record lows and raised questions about the...
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Indonesia’s ‘Perfect Storm’: Downgrade Risks, US Trade Tensions and Iran War Threaten Growth
Indonesia’s growth outlook is being squeezed by three simultaneous shocks – looming sovereign‑rating downgrades, renewed US trade friction and a fuel crisis sparked by the Iran war. Analysts warn the combined impact could stall the country’s 8% growth target and...
AI Agents Power China’s One‑Person Company Surge, Alibaba Says
Alibaba.com president Kuo Zhang reports that 30%‑40% of the platform’s customers are now "one‑person companies," a growth fueled by AI agents that automate core e‑commerce functions. The trend is reshaping how startups are formed in China, with 10 million active users...
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
George Answers Your Questions: Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe
George Friedman argues the Trump administration’s push to destabilize Iran is less about Tehran itself and more about choking China’s future oil supply. He links this strategy to the 2019‑2020 U.S.‑backed regime change in Venezuela, suggesting a pattern of using...
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
EU’s Šefčovič Confirms Push for Western Steel Club with US and UK
The European Union is weighing a Western steel alliance with the United States and the United Kingdom to curb China’s massive overcapacity, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič announced at a WTO ministerial in Cameroon. Britain has been actively lobbying for the...
Sony Suspends Global SD and CFexpress Card Orders as Memory Shortage Hits Emerging Markets
Sony announced a temporary suspension of orders for almost all SD and CFexpress memory cards due to a worldwide semiconductor shortage. Prices have tripled, tightening supply for AI data centers and consumer electronics across emerging markets.
Israeli Strike Kills IRGC Navy Chief Alireza Tangsiri, Raising Iran‑Israel Tensions
Israel carried out a precision strike that killed IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, intensifying the ongoing Iran‑Israel war. The hit follows a series of high‑profile Iranian leader assassinations and has prompted Tehran to vow retaliation, while oil prices have surged...
India's Sensex and Nifty Plunge over 2% as US‑Iran War Spikes Oil and Triggers Fund Outflows
The BSE Sensex slid 1,690 points (2.25%) to 73,583 and the NSE Nifty dropped 487 points (2.09%) to 22,820 as the US‑Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors dumped roughly Rs 1,805 cr crore (≈ $217 million) of Indian...
The China 5: EVs Accelerate, Dollar Shortage Bites, Pork Crisis Hits
China’s electric‑vehicle market now commands over half of new car sales, propelling record‑high export volumes that generated a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Yet most of those earnings sit offshore, creating a hidden domestic dollar shortage that hampers imports and weakens internal...