Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Sanctions Waivers on Russian and Iranian Oil Are Set to Expire. Here’s What Trump Should Do Next.
The U.S. Treasury’s general licenses that let Russia and Iran ship oil expire on April 11 and April 19, respectively. The temporary influx has not stopped crude prices from climbing, and both regimes are now earning roughly $150 million and $139 million per day. Extending the waivers would boost those windfalls, but reinstating the G7 price cap on Russian crude and re‑introducing escrow mechanisms for Iranian oil could limit revenues and ease global price pressure. The article urges the Trump administration to adopt these tools while deepening coordination with G7 and Indo‑Pacific partners.
Shipping Stalls in Hormuz Until Iran Halts Attacks
The last plot is through 9:43 AM ET today (April 8th). It is on track to be the highest of the last month. Again, this has to go to zero for shipping to start moving through the Strait. Note that the uptick...
The IMF’s Spring Meetings Must Deliver Three Reforms
Kenya announced it will not seek IMF financing for the current fiscal year, raising roughly $4.5 billion through a pipeline IPO, Safaricom stake sale and Eurobond issuance—about five times the Fund’s typical offer. The move spotlights the structural imbalance in the...
Productivity Boom Hidden by Stagflation Benefits Powerful Bureaucracy
My new framework: We are in a productivity boom inside a government sovereign debt bubble that causes geopolitical & demographic issues- these issues mask themselves as stagflationary. In a productivity boom there are massive winners and losers. Passive management doesn’t work well...
What’s Behind Tehran’s Tollbooth?
Iran briefly shut the Strait of Hormuz and began levying steep fees on transiting tankers, effectively turning the waterway into a tollbooth. Although a ceasefire has been brokered, the fee‑collection mechanism remains active, targeting vessels that are not subject to...
Foreign Investors Flee US Treasuries for Low‑Yield Chinese Bonds
Forget US Treasuries, Chinese bonds are the new safe-haven trade Since the start of the war, foreigners have: - Dumped $82B of Treasuries - Piled into panda bonds The math makes sense: - US 10-year yield: 4.4% - China 10-year yield: 1.8% In the midst of the...
Qatar Begins Work to Resume LNG Production After Ceasefire
Qatar is mobilizing engineers to restart the Ras Laffan LNG complex, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility, after a cease‑fire in the Middle East conflict. The plant, offline since early March, suffered missile damage that removed roughly 17%...
China Is Having a Good War—So Far
China is weathering the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran better than most of its neighbors, keeping its oil imports stable while cautiously probing profit opportunities. Beijing is monitoring strategic missteps by other powers and positioning itself to secure discounted energy deals....
Lipsky Quoted in Reuters Article on China’s Role in Iran’s Military and Drone Production Process, and How Trump Is Unlikely...
The Atlantic Council cited a Reuters interview in which former Pentagon official Michael Lipsky warned that China is deepening its partnership with Iran, supplying components that enable Tehran's expanding drone and missile programs. Lipsky also noted that President Trump’s recent...
Iran-Krieg: Feuerpause Lässt Börsenkurse Weltweit Nach Oben Springen – Analyst: „Die Apokalypse Bleibt Erst Mal Aus“
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran was announced Wednesday night, prompting a surge in global equity markets. Investors welcomed the pause in hostilities and the guarantee of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, driving major indices...
Catalyst for Change: Africa Feels the Brunt of Middle East Conflict, but It Could Also Accelerate Structural Change
A joint report by the AfDB, AUC, UNDP and UNECA warns that the Middle East war‑driven surge in oil and fertiliser prices is straining African economies. Currency depreciation in 29 nations has raised debt‑service costs and made essential imports more...
World Bank Cuts Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Outlook Due to Iran War
The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth projection for sub‑Saharan Africa to 4.1%, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% forecast made in October. The downgrade reflects the fallout from the Iran‑Israel war, which has pushed up fuel and...
Inside Q1 2026’s Mega Deal Drought: War, LP Shift & Growth Capital Gap
India’s startup funding fell sharply in Q1 2026, with total capital inflows dropping 26% YoY to $2.3 bn and no $100 million mega deals recorded for the first time since 2022. Despite the funding dip, the number of deals rose 17% as...
Iran Tries to Impose Toll on Hormuz Shipping
🚨Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire🚨 This 'agreement' will confirm Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 1️⃣Iran has ZERO authority to monitor what sails into or out of the Persian Gulf 2️⃣The requirement to sail through Iranian waters...
Vietnam’s To Lam Consolidates Power as President, Pushing $200 Bn Infrastructure Drive
Vietnam’s National Assembly unanimously elected Communist Party General Secretary To Lam as president, giving him the same authority once held by Xi Jinping in China. Lam will steer a $200 bn construction spree that includes a new stadium, high‑speed rail and an $8.1 bn...
CII Proposes 20-Point Agenda to Support Indian Firms Amid Iran War Disruptions
India's Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has presented a 20‑point policy agenda to the government and the Reserve Bank of India to mitigate the fallout from the Iran‑West Asia war. The plan calls for coordinated fiscal, financial and trade actions,...
NEWS: Trump Declares Victory in Iran Ceasefire But the Deal Reveals a Stunning Reality
After 39 days of conflict, a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran was announced, with President Trump touting a victory. The agreement, largely based on a 10‑point Iranian proposal, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, hints at lifting long‑standing...
What Ukraine’s Wartime Tech Ecosystem Can Teach the Rest of the World
Ukraine’s wartime experience has turned its defense sector into a rapid‑innovation laboratory. Since the February 2022 invasion, the country expanded from seven drone manufacturers to over 500 and built the Brave1 cluster, now linking more than 3,000 firms with frontline units....
Iran, US Mull Hormuz Toll; Oman Warns Legal Fallout
Iran and the US are considering imposing tolls on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the UN Law of the Sea's free passage principle. Oman opposes the tolls, raising legal and economic concerns that could impact global maritime norms...
As War Premiums Hit Groceries, China Deals Give Africa Room to Breathe
The recent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, inflating diesel, fertilizer and food costs in vulnerable African economies. At the same time, China announced zero‑tariff access for imports from 53 African countries,...
Fragile Ceasefire Lifts Markets as Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran Arms Suppliers
A tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel sparked a brief rally in global equity markets, easing investor anxiety. At the same time, President Donald Trump announced a potential 50% tariff on any country that supplies weapons to Iran, reigniting trade...
Middle East War: Global Economic Fallout
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing the first two merchant vessels to transit and prompting a sharp drop in oil and gas prices. Iran’s drone strikes on Kuwait’s power, desalination and oil facilities underscore the...
CNBC: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon Flags Risks in Geopolitics, AI and Private Markets
JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon told CNBC that 2026’s macro backdrop is fraught with three intertwined threats: escalating geopolitical volatility, the rapid, unregulated expansion of artificial intelligence, and stretched valuations in private‑equity markets. He warned that heightened US‑China tensions and Middle‑East...
Iran Conflict Sparks Worst Month of Outflows Since Autumn Budget
The Middle East conflict sparked a sharp rise in equity fund outflows, reaching $1.78 bn in March – a 55% jump from February and the worst month since November 2025. UK equity funds led the sell‑off with $752 m withdrawn, while North...
Gulf Wars 1991 and 2026: India’s Economic Challenges and Policy Shifts
The article revisits the 1991 Gulf War’s shock to India’s economy—sharp oil price spikes, a ballooning import bill and a fiscal squeeze that accelerated market liberalisation. It then projects how a hypothetical Gulf conflict in 2026 could repeat and amplify...
Zhou Yongmei: The World Bank Remains Central to Reconstruction Finance—But in Gaza, It No Longer Sets the Rules.
Former World Bank official Zhou Yongmei argues the institution’s role in post‑conflict reconstruction is shifting from a governance gatekeeper to a mere financial conduit. In Afghanistan and Iraq, the Bank oversaw project design, procurement and audits, but in Gaza it...
Peace or Illusion? U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Reopens Tourism, Skies, and Shipping—But for How Long?
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing immediate oil‑price pressures. Gulf shipping firms are resuming transit but face higher insurance costs, while airlines are launching a...
Indriya's $330 M Stake in Aditya Birla Housing Finance Boosts Private Credit Confidence
Indriya Ltd bought a 14.286% equity stake in Aditya Birla Housing Finance Ltd (ABHFL) through a preferential private‑placement issue, injecting ₹2,750 crore ($330 million) and valuing the lender at about $2.3 billion. The deal, cleared by India’s Competition Commission, signals strong appetite for private‑credit...
Action Needed to Address Africa's Structural Challenges, Says AfDB
The African Development Bank’s new Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook reports that Africa grew 4.2% in 2025, beating the global average but still falling short of the 7% growth needed for structural transformation. Thirty‑two of 54 economies posted stronger growth, with...
A Robust Market Reaction to a Quite Fragile "Cease-Fire" In Iran.
The episode analyzes the market fallout from a fragile two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and Israel, focusing on oil logistics, price volatility, and speculative positioning. Hosts note that despite ongoing missile launches, the cease‑fire has sparked a sharp drop in Brent...
Ray Dalio: Trump-Xi Meeting to Focus on Trade, Capital Flows
Hedge‑fund founder Ray Dalio said the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing on May 14‑15 will prioritize trade and capital‑flow issues. He expressed optimism that the leaders will show empathy, which could calm bilateral tensions and reassure investors. Dalio noted the S&P 500...
India Set to Get First Iranian Crude Oil Cargo in 7 Years
India will receive its first Iranian crude cargo in seven years after the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil. The shipment, aboard the Curacao‑flagged VLCC Jaya, was bought by state‑run Indian Oil Corp. and is bound for India's...
Jet Fuel Crisis to Last Months Even After Iran-US Ceasefire, IATA Warns
IATA warns that jet fuel shortages will linger for months despite the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a US‑Iran ceasefire. Damage to regional refining capacity means crude flows alone cannot quickly restore supply, leaving airlines with higher...
RBI Ups Crude Oil, Exchange Rate Baseline Assumptions for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
From the Hype of Destruction to the Hype of Ceasefire
Oil prices plunged about 14% after President Trump posted that the United States would pause bombing Iran for two weeks, contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe shipping. Iran accepted the conditional ceasefire, and diplomatic talks are...
RBI Holds Rates, Balances Inflation Control with Growth Outlook
The RBI is balancing inflation control with growth support, keeping rates unchanged amid global uncertainties, while projecting solid GDP growth but slightly softer momentum next year.
Tolls on Iran, Oman, DJT
Well, an Iranian toll -- Or an Iranian, Omani and DJT toll -- Would create a financial incentive to build this alternative export infrastructure for the GCC's oil and (more difficult) gas
Morgan Stanley Cuts India's FY27 Growth Outlook to 6.2% Amid Gulf Conflict
Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for India's fiscal year 2027 GDP growth to 6.2%, down 30 basis points, citing supply‑side disruptions and higher energy costs from the Gulf conflict. The bank raised its inflation projection to 5.1% and expects the...
Dollar‑EM Indicator Signals Return to 2010‑13 Weakness
It's the Dollar versus EM that's been the key leading indicator for USD direction and that's now tumbling (black). We're in a new regime for the Dollar and are going back to the 2010-2013 period, when Dollar weakness was primarily...
China Boosts Gold Reserves, Heralding Deglobalization Shift
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
India's 10-Year Bond Yield Nears 6.90% on Iran Ceasefire, RBI Decision Awaited
Indian government bond yields dropped sharply on Wednesday as oil prices plunged following a U.S.-brokered two‑week cease‑fire with Iran. The benchmark 2035 bond yield fell to 6.9177%, down from 7.0458% the previous day, just before the Reserve Bank of India’s...
Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits China, Calls It Peace Mission
Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun arrived in China on Tuesday at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, in what she’s calling a “journey for peace” as Beijing pushes for the self-ruled island to come under its control. @EECastilloAP @SiminaMistreanu https://t.co/aJ3NijhPub
US Treasury Faces Deadline on Russian, Iranian Oil Waivers
The US has to answer some questions: Does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Russian oil sales? (the general license expires on Sunday, Apr 11) And more politically charged, does the US Treasury extend the waiver on Iranian oil sales?...
Ray Dalio Warns of “World War” Dynamics:
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio cautioned that tensions among the United States, Israel and Iran signal a broader “world war” dynamic, marking a shift from episodic conflicts to a systemic multipolar rivalry. He argues markets are underpricing the inflationary and volatility...
US Superiority Can't Compel Iran, Despite Russian, Chinese Fears
".. While Moscow and Beijing fear US military and intelligence superiority, they have seen it couldn’t force Iran’s capitulation, the people said." @business https://t.co/3Z3v7Boini
Turkey's Inflation Eases, but Loose Policy Fuels Surge
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
How the Iran War Will Upend the Global Economy
In late March Israel and Iran struck gas fields in the Persian Gulf, creating a sharp supply shock that will push global energy prices higher. The disruption has already prompted U.S. markets to price in further Federal Reserve rate hikes...
Pakistan Seeks China, Saudi Aid to Repay UAE Debt
Pakistan owes $3.5 billion to the UAE, due this month. To cover it, they are going hat in hand to China and Saudi Arabia, again. PAK = THIRD WORLD. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/e4naldX7Ad
Inflation Surge, Market Risk Unmoved Without Economic Shock
We know we face months of physical disruption to energy and food markets. Inflation will keep getting worse. The question is whether risk assets will care, if the underlying conflict has been resolved. I suspect not...unless the economy deteriorates in...
Romania's Central Bank Pushes Euro Adoption Despite Austerity
Romania’s central bank governor joined calls for the Black Sea nation to revive a goal of adopting the euro as the country seeks to get through a painful period of austerity https://t.co/SjqJU4C4eB https://t.co/wJj4vWehdb