Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Iran Proposes Bitcoin Toll for Strait of Hormuz Oil Transits, Targeting $1 per Barrel
Iran announced it will require oil tankers to pay a transit fee in Bitcoin, roughly $1 per barrel, for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal aims to bypass sanctions‑linked banking channels and could force the shipping industry to adopt crypto payments amid volatile markets.
How Global Conflicts Are Threatening India’s Maritime Trade and Energy Security | Energonomics Podcast | EP 15
The Energonomics podcast examines how escalating geopolitical tensions are jeopardizing India’s maritime trade and energy security. It highlights the vulnerability of critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, where conflict could disrupt oil and cargo...
Deutsche Bank Says China Is Energy ‘Winner’ in Age of War
Deutsche Bank’s emerging‑markets CIO Jacky Tang argues that the Middle‑East war makes China the clear energy winner. While Iran‑linked oil imports pose a test, China’s rapid clean‑tech expansion and near‑40% renewable electricity mix cushion it from oil price shocks. Tang...
Corridor Of Power: China’s Inland Hub Connects to ASEAN
China’s New International Land‑Sea Trade Corridor (New ILSTC) moved 1.425 million TEUs in 2025, a 47.6% year‑on‑year rise, and generated $196 billion in trade value, up 17.9%. ASEAN’s share of Chinese exports climbed to 17.6% in 2025, while shipments to Southeast Asia jumped...
First Iranian Oil for India in Seven Years
The episode covers three main stories: India’s receipt of its first Iranian oil cargo in seven years following a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver, the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting global shipping and energy markets, and BTS’s kickoff...
Emerging Markets Outlook: Has the Asset Class Finally Turned a Corner?
Emerging‑market equities have finally outpaced U.S. stocks, delivering their widest performance gap in years after a decade‑plus of under‑performance. The Wealth Enterprise Briefing attributes the shift to stronger balance sheets, improved profitability and accelerating earnings momentum. The composition of the...
Chart Shows Iran May Have Put Sea Mines in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is alleged to have deployed sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a chart released by semi‑official Iranian news agencies. The diagram marks a “danger zone” over the Traffic Separation Scheme and suggests...
Uzbekistan Prepares to List State Assets in London
Uzbekistan announced plans to float a portfolio of state‑owned enterprises on the London Stock Exchange, marking a major step in its market‑oriented reforms. The government aims to tap deep international capital pools, improve corporate governance, and generate a sizable cash...
Delegation to Visit Washington as India, US Look to Revive Trade Deal Talks
The United States and India first outlined a bilateral trade framework in February 2026, promising to slash reciprocal tariffs on industrial goods and lower duties on U.S. agricultural products. Momentum stalled when the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal‑tariff mechanism,...
India’s Worrying Plans for Dams on Transboundary Rivers Shared with Bangladesh
India’s northeastern state of Meghalaya is accelerating a suite of hydropower projects on the Myntdu and Kynshi rivers, including the 210 MW Myntdu‑Leshka Stage II and several upstream schemes. The detailed project reports are finished and the state government is seeking central...
Chhangani Cited in FT Article on the Banks and Financial Institutions Willing to Launder Dollar Payments for Iran
The Financial Times reported that a network of banks and financial institutions is facilitating dollar‑denominated payments for Iran, effectively laundering sanctions‑evading funds. Atlantic Council senior fellow Alisha Chhangani is quoted highlighting how correspondent‑bank relationships and opaque shell entities enable the...
Fuel Shortages, Hunger, Inflation Spiral: IMF Fears ‘Scarring’ Harm From Iran War
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict will trigger widespread fuel shortages, heightened hunger and an inflation spiral, leaving lasting scarring effects on the global economy. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected...
The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
Egypt’s Foreign Minister: One Cannot Secure Waterways ‘While Ignoring the Political Order of the States’ Along the Shore
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that Red Sea security cannot be ensured without political stability in the Horn of Africa, linking maritime chokepoints to Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues. He cautioned that unilateral recognition of Somaliland threatens African sovereignty norms...
Brazilian Election Tie Sparks U.S. Push on Critical Mineral Supply Chains
A new IDEIA poll puts Brazil's incumbent Lula at 45.5% and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.8%, a statistical tie that has amplified U.S. worries about securing Brazil's critical mineral output. Bolsonaro’s appeal to the United States and his framing of...
Mooted South China Sea Oil Deal with China Draws Fire in Manila
The Philippines is weighing a joint oil‑exploration pact with China despite a national energy emergency and soaring fuel prices. Lawmakers and nationalist groups have condemned the talks, arguing they send the wrong signal to a territorial aggressor and could compromise...
Iran Proposes Bitcoin Toll for Strait of Hormuz Transits, Targeting $1‑Per‑Barrel Fees
Iran announced it will require oil tankers to pay transit fees in Bitcoin, roughly $1 per barrel, for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The move ties a strategic maritime chokepoint to cryptocurrency, prompting concerns from shipping firms, regulators and...
What to Know About the Bab El-Mandeb Strait as Iran Threatens to Restrict Other Key Trade Passage
Iranian officials have warned they could leverage the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait as a geopolitical bargaining chip, mirroring their threats on the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, currently handles about 4.2 million...
How Global Investors Are Thinking About India Today
Global investors are pulling back from India, citing heightened geopolitical risk, especially vulnerability to oil price shocks, and a lack of compelling AI investment opportunities. Valuations are viewed as rich, while a weakening rupee further erodes appeal. Recent tax reforms—higher...
Hormuz Re-Shuts Over Lebanon Strikes: Oil Prices Rise Again | Rapid Read 9 April 2026
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed hours after a US‑Iran ceasefire, citing Israel’s large‑scale airstrikes in Lebanon. Marine tracking shows only three to seven vessels transited in the past 24 hours, a sharp drop from...
Global Investors Help Boost Latin America’s Late-Stage Funding Boom In Q1
Latin America’s venture ecosystem recorded a $1.03 billion funding surge in Q1 2026, driven primarily by a 158% jump in late‑stage and growth capital to $761 million. Mexico eclipsed Brazil, with Kavak’s $300 million Series F alone accounting for nearly a third of regional funds....
The Big Picture
The United States is sending mixed economic signals: a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report suggests labor market resilience, while the Treasury Department has declared the nation fiscally insolvent. Global trade appears robust, yet investors are fleeing private‑credit funds amid fears of deteriorating...
Saudi Arabia’s PIF Plans to Anchor King Street’s Regional Credit Fund
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has signed a memorandum of understanding to anchor a new private credit fund managed by King Street Capital. The fund will focus on financing opportunities across Saudi Arabia and the broader MENA region, tapping...
Stakes Rise for Pakistan as It Prepares to Host US-Iran Face-to-Face Talks
Pakistan is set to host U.S. and Iranian delegations in Islamabad on April 11 for face‑to‑face talks aimed at ending the 39‑day war. The meeting follows a fragile two‑week cease‑fire that Pakistan secured through intense diplomatic effort. A Strategic Mutual Defense...
Trump Accepts Two‑Week Iran Ceasefire After Threatening Annihilation, Oil Prices Plunge
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran hours before his 8 p.m. ET deadline, averting a threatened bombing campaign. The deal, brokered by Pakistan and contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude down more than 13%...
Rupee Stalls Near 92.6 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Fears Meet RBI’s Low‑Rate Outlook
The rupee lingered at 92.65 per dollar on Thursday, squeezed by volatility from a fragile US‑Iran cease‑fire and the Reserve Bank of India’s suggestion that policy rates could remain low for the next year. Traders unwound roughly $40 billion of arbitrage...
South Korea’s AI Industrial Policy Meets the Energy Shock
South Korea is confronting a new Middle‑Eastern oil shock while pushing an aggressive artificial‑intelligence industrial strategy first outlined in the mid‑1970s. President Park Chung‑hee’s historic pledge to modernise heavy‑machinery and chemicals sectors now intersects with today’s AI ambitions, creating a...
War in the Gulf Could Tilt the Cloud Race Toward China
Iranian drone attacks on three AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain in March disrupted banking, fintech and ride‑hailing services, marking the first confirmed strike on a hyperscale cloud provider. The incident has intensified calls for multi‑cloud strategies, highlighted...
What’s Driving Startup Investors’ Shift Towards Domestic LPs?
Indian venture capital firms are increasingly turning to domestic limited partners as macro volatility and geopolitical tensions make foreign capital harder to secure. A recent Inc42 survey shows 74% of institutional investors would prefer Indian‑origin LPs for the next funding...
China Real Estate Crisis: Millions Face Negative Equity
China’s property slump is deepening as falling home prices push mortgages into negative equity. Roughly 700,000 loans are already underwater, and analysts project up to 3.3 million by next year, affecting half of new‑home purchases. Banks are quietly restructuring debt—extending terms...
China's Q1 GDP Forecast Hits 4.8%, Annual 4.7%
Yicai: "Chief economists surveyed by Yicai predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year....
Iranian Traders Swap Gold for Bonds Amid War
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
India Is Slowing Down but Southeast Asia Is Falling Behind Faster
India’s venture capital market contracted 18% in FY2025‑26, pulling in $11.7 billion, yet it remains the world’s fourth‑largest funding pool. The decline is uneven: late‑stage financing fell 38% while early‑stage capital rose 33%, signaling a shift toward disciplined growth. Southeast Asia,...
Mid‑South Generates Double Texas Wealth with Fewer People
The Midsouth (TN + Carolinas) have 24m people combined Texas has 32m And yet, the 3 states of the Mid South picked up 2x as much wealth as Texas ($11b vs. $6b) The mid South is the next great economic region...
IMF Highlights Iran War Impact, Offers No New Action
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.
TR Capital Appoints Umang Agarwal As India MD, To Invest $1 Bn Over 5 Years
Private equity firm TR Capital announced a $1 billion commitment to invest in Indian secondary transactions over the next five years. The firm appointed former Eight Roads principal Umang Agarwal as India Managing Director and co‑head of its Asia secondary platform....
Mexico's Climate‑scientist President Backs Controversial Shale Gas
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
Conflict Outcomes Remain Uncertain, Like Schr
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
Chokepoint in the Gulf: What the US-Israeli War on Iran Means for Southeast Asia’s Food Security
The US‑Israel war on Iran has choked Gulf energy and fertilizer supply chains, locking up roughly 20‑30% of global oil and LNG and a third of traded fertilizers. Prices for nitrogenous fertilizers have surged over 50% since the start of...
Trump's Oil Ultimatum Threatens Post‑WWII Security Order
Trump's latest statement telling countries to secure their own oil dismantles the very fabric of the global order. We'd be stepping away from the post-WWII system where the U.S. provided security for everyone, so economic growth could be the priority. Full...
France's Lescure: Iran War's Economic Impact Remains Moderate
France’s Lescure says the economic impact from the Iran war is moderate for now https://t.co/hUDRHnjPtG via @WHorobin https://t.co/fRjzKgdDjb
Oil Shock, AI Tailwinds, and Portfolio Shifts Across Emerging Markets>
Emerging‑markets investors faced a sharp near‑term shock as the Middle East conflict drove Brent crude above $100 a barrel, tightening current‑account balances for oil‑importing economies while boosting exporters. Despite the volatility, the fund retained confidence in long‑term AI‑driven supply‑chain and...
UAE Oil Chief Calls Hormuz Closure “Control, Not Passage”
UAE senior oil official Sultan Al Jaber denounces the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” “Conditional passage is not passage. It is control by another name,” he says. https://t.co/TFczKBO4kk
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Hormuz Shipping Remains Stalled
The good news: attacks have come down markedly (ex Lebanon), and the fragile ceasefire seems to be holding. The bad news: so far, almost no movement of ships in-and-out of the Strait of Hormuz. Several Chinese oil tankers have pre-positioned to...
Operator of Yiwu Market, Former Mecca of Global Consumer Goods Trade, Eyes Hong Kong IPO
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, the state‑owned operator of the Yiwu international trade market, announced plans for a Hong Kong initial public offering to finance its overseas expansion. The company posted a 2025 net profit of ¥4.2 billion (about $614 million), up...
Major Chinese Banks Cut Pay as Economy Stalls
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
Russia Offers Sanctioned LNG to South Asia at 40% Discount
Russia is offering to sell US-sanctioned LNG to South Asian buyers at a *40% discount* 🇷🇺🚢 Moscow is seeking to leverage the global natural gas crunch to lure energy-hungry countries like Bangladesh and India https://t.co/SsirotyuhI
The Commodities Feed: Hormuz Remains Blocked for Now
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, with ICE Brent climbing over 3% to trade above $97 per barrel as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.1 million barrels, the highest level since June...
Russia Tempts Energy-Starved South Asia with 40% Discounts on US-Sanctioned LNG
Russia is courting energy‑short South Asian nations by offering LNG from U.S.-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 and Portovaya plants at roughly a 40% discount to spot prices. The discount is being brokered through obscure Chinese and Russian intermediaries who can falsify paperwork to...
Saudi Firm to Develop $300m Syria Beaumont Project
Saudi-based Ezdihar Holding has signed a 50‑year joint venture with Syria’s Ministry of Tourism to build The Beaumont, a $250‑$300 million mixed‑use development in Damascus. The 77,000‑square‑metre project will feature two waterfront towers—a 150‑room luxury hotel and a 26‑floor residential tower—plus...