Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Middle East Retail Investing: The WealthTech Opportunity
Retail investing is rapidly gaining momentum across the Middle East, driven by a young, digitally native population and strong economic growth in hubs like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The GCC digital neobrokerage market reached $1.2 bn in 2024, while government initiatives such as Saudi Vision 2030 and the UAE’s National Financial Inclusion Strategy are expanding financial literacy and market access. WealthTech firms see a structural shift toward personalized, analytics‑driven platforms, but must navigate cultural nuances, trust barriers, and fragmented regulations. Success will hinge on delivering transparent, localized solutions that align with regional investment preferences.
The Iran War Has Ended a Year of Economic Promise
Before President Donald Trump launched his war on Iran, global financial markets were on an upswing and private‑sector confidence was rebounding, according to the Brookings‑FT TIGER index. The index highlighted solid growth prospects despite lingering trade‑policy volatility and high public...
Cubans Living Abroad Now Hold the Key to Their Country’s Uncertain Future
Cuba announced in March 2026 that it will allow Cuban expatriates, especially those in the United States, to return, invest in the private sector and own businesses. The policy shift follows a deepening economic crisis marked by food, medicine shortages...
Iran’s Bitcoin Toll in Hormuz: Sanctions Hack Meets U.S. Crypto Normalization
Iran has begun charging oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz a toll of roughly $1 per barrel payable in Bitcoin or stablecoins, turning the chokepoint into a crypto‑enabled revenue stream. The payments are invoiced by email and settled on‑chain...
Ghalibaf Demands Lebanon Ceasefire, Frozen Iranian Assets Release
Ghalibaf says two conditions must be fulfilled before negotiations with the US begin: 1. A ceasefire in Lebanon 2. The release of Iran's blocked assets The blocked assets refer to tens of billions in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks under...
Africa Is Losing the Iran War
The Iran‑related war in the Middle East is triggering a cascade of economic shocks across Africa. Fuel prices have jumped about 50% and global fertilizer costs are up more than 40%, straining household budgets and agricultural yields. Simultaneously, African governments...
2026 European Gas Shock Pales Beside 2022 Crisis
CHART OF THE DAY: The European natural gas crisis of 2022 vs the 2026 (so far) mini-shock. The chart starts in July (both for 2021 and 2025) and tracks prices over 2022 and YTD 2026. Of course, full caveat: the Persian...
Finance Titans Bet Mideast Resilience Will Outweigh War Fallout
Wall Street’s biggest banks and private‑equity firms are deepening their Gulf foothold despite Iran’s missile attacks and a two‑week cease‑fire. Blackstone announced a $250 million private‑equity commitment, while Citi’s CEO Jane Fraser reiterated confidence in the region. Goldman Sachs is pursuing...
Investors Increasingly Influenced by Industrial Policy and Technology Prowess, Amid ...
Management consultancy Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index shows that despite heightened geopolitical tension, 88% of surveyed firms intend to raise FDI over the next three years. Industrial policy now ranks as a decisive factor, with 84% of investors...
KMT Echoing Beijing Narrative Could Affect Global Support for Taiwan: MAC
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) warned that Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li‑wun’s recent remarks, which framed cross‑strait relations as an internal Chinese matter, mirror Beijing’s narrative and could erode global backing for Taiwan. Cheng’s call to reject foreign intervention and...
Kenya Leaves Benchmark Lending Rate Unchanged on Inflation Jitters
Kenya’s central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 8.75% after ten consecutive cuts, citing rising inflation risks from higher global oil prices. Inflation edged up to 4.4% in March, while private‑sector activity contracted, ending a six‑month growth streak....
US Minerals Deal Helps Congo Raise $1.25bn in Maiden Bond
The Democratic Republic of Congo completed its inaugural sovereign Eurobond, raising $1.25 bn. The issue comprised $600 m of 2032 notes at an 8.75% yield and $650 m of 2037 notes at 9.50%, with order books reaching $2 bn and $2.8 bn respectively, allowing tighter...
Kenya Risks Loss of $40m Monthly Gulf Remittances
The World Bank warns that Kenya could lose up to $40 million each month in Gulf‑origin remittances as the Middle‑East conflict drags on. About 500,000 Kenyan workers are employed in Gulf construction and services, and their earnings are already slipping. The...
Indian Rupee Hits 92.41/USD Amid West Asia Tensions and RBI Limits, Edges to 92.57
The Indian rupee appreciated to 92.41 per U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday, later opening at 92.57, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to curb banks' overnight dollar positions and heightened geopolitical risk in West Asia....
Argentina’s 2026 Inflation Forecast Jumps to 29.1% as Middle East Oil Shock Hits
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
A US Strategy for Energy Competition with China in Emerging Markets
Emerging economies will drive the bulk of global energy demand growth over the next 20 years, turning them into a strategic battleground for influence. China has leveraged the Belt and Road Initiative to provide over $230 billion in concessional loans and...
Global Chaos Has Become a Permanent Guest in Your Portfolio. This Strategist Says Big Tech and Emerging Markets Are Now...
Nuveen strategist Laura Cooper warns that markets are under‑pricing the escalating Iran war and its broader geopolitical fallout. She advises investors to tilt toward U.S. large‑cap technology and AI, overweight emerging markets such as South Korea and Brazil, and add...
Qatar Vows to Remain Reliable Energy Supplier to India Amid West Asia Tensions
Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al‑Kaabi pledged to remain a reliable supplier of LNG and LPG to India during a two‑day visit by Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. Qatar accounts for 45% of India’s LNG imports and 20% of its LPG, making it...
Japan Downgrades Description of China in Annual Diplomatic Report
Japan’s 2026 Diplomatic Bluebook downgraded its description of China from “one of the most important bilateral relations” to “an important neighboring country,” reflecting heightened tensions after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a...
Iran Confusion Makes the Case for Causal Modelling
Risk managers are grappling with the tangled uncertainties of the Iran‑US conflict, where traditional scenario testing—relying on past crises—fails to capture the unique dynamics of oil prices and prolonged infrastructure damage. Alexander Denev showed that Anthropic’s Claude LLM can construct...
Chinese Firms in Hungary Face a Post-Election Reckoning – No Matter Who Wins
Chinese firms operating in Hungary are bracing for the upcoming parliamentary election, fearing that a victory for the EU‑friendly Tisza party could bring stricter regulations, visa hurdles, or even asset seizures. Under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Budapest offered generous subsidies, tax...
Iran’s Impact on Markets: Where There Is Volatility, There Is Opportunity
François Collet, CIO of DNCA, says the Iran conflict will act as a short‑term inflationary shock, lifting European inflation expectations above 3% and keeping U.S. inflation near 3.25% over the next year. He forecasts GDP growth could be trimmed by 10‑30...
Taiwan Opposition Leader Calls for ‘Reconciliation’ After Meeting Xi
Opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, becoming the highest‑ranking Taiwanese official to hold a face‑to‑face dialogue with Beijing since President Ma Ying‑jeou’s 2015 meeting. Both leaders reiterated opposition to Taiwan independence and framed the dispute as a cultural‑historical...
Global Growth to Slow to 3.2% in 2026, Amid Largest Energy Shock on Record Due to West Asia Crisis: S&P...
S&P Global now projects global GDP growth slowing to 3.2 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025, as the West Asia conflict generates the largest recorded energy shock. Disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to...
ADB Lifts India FY27 Growth Forecast to 7.3% Amid West Asia Oil‑price Risk
The Asian Development Bank raised its FY27 GDP growth projection for India to 7.3%, up 80 basis points, citing salary hikes, regulatory reforms and a new EU trade pact. At the same time, the bank warned that a protracted West...
India’s Currency Clampdown Triggers Sharp Sell‑off in Offshore Bond Holdings
The Reserve Bank of India’s abrupt limits on banks’ daily currency positions have forced a $30 billion unwind of arbitrage trades, sending foreign investors fleeing Indian sovereign bonds. The rupee rallied more than 2% to 92.66 per dollar, but banks face...
Oil Rebounds Toward $100 as US‑Iran Ceasefire Doubts Spark Supply‑risk Fears
Oil prices surged toward the $100 mark after doubts resurfaced about the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, with Brent at $99.3 and WTI at $101.5 per barrel. Traders cite a still‑closed Strait of Hormuz, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and mixed signals from...
Fitch Says Indian Banks Stay Resilient Amid Growing Credit Pressure in Asia
Fitch Ratings' April 10 analysis finds Indian banks remain relatively resilient as credit pressure builds across South and Southeast Asia. The agency warns of margin compression of 20‑30 basis points and a liquidity surplus that has slipped to just 0.5%...
Uzbek Bank Posts 36% Q1 Profit Surge as Central Asian Firms Boost Local Procurement
Uzpromstroybank reported a 36% jump in first‑quarter 2026 profit, even as its loan portfolio slipped slightly. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas raised its domestic procurement share to 93% and launched a new Register of Domestic Manufacturers, underscoring a broader...
Lebanon’s Role in Turkey’s Vision for the Eastern Mediterranean
Turkey is positioning Lebanon as a cornerstone of its Eastern Mediterranean strategy, linking economic cooperation with security objectives. President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have highlighted Lebanon’s role in shaping post‑Israel‑Hezbollah dynamics and in accessing offshore gas reserves. Ankara’s...
Yuan Settlements Hit Record Amid Iran war...Beijing Looks to Curb Hidden Local debt...China’s Car Exports See Growth Despite Global Volatility
China’s cross‑border payment system hit a record RMB 1.22 trillion ($178.5 bn) single‑day settlement amid heightened Middle‑East tensions, while regulators moved to block banks from creating hidden local‑government debt through agricultural loans. March saw Chinese car exports surge 73.7% to roughly 700,000...
US-Iran Ceasefire Eases Oil Prices but Gulf Economies Showing Strain – Oxford Economics
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire announced on April 7 triggered a 13% drop in Brent crude, pulling prices to about $93 per barrel. Oxford Economics still expects a two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by lingering disruptions, forecasting a 0.8%...
Tax, Not Dollar, Is the Main Barrier to FII Inflows
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
After Talking the Talk, It Is Time for US (and Iran) to Walk the Walk
President Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a flurry of diplomatic back‑and‑forth. Tehran confirmed the truce but insists on a 10‑point proposal, while Washington negotiates on a 15‑point framework, accusing Iran of...
India Eyes 20 More Countries for Open Market Access in Next Big Trade Bet
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced that the government is negotiating free‑trade agreements with at least 20 additional countries, adding to the nine FTAs signed in the past 3½ years that already cover 38 developed nations. The new round targets...
Sánchez to Push China to Hand Over Tech Secrets on Beijing Trip
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will travel to Beijing to seal a High‑Quality Investment Agreement that obliges Chinese firms to share technology, use local suppliers and create jobs in Spain. The pact aims to address Spain’s $36.1 billion trade deficit with...
ADB Ups India's FY26 Growth Projection to 6.9% on Strong Domestic Demand, Lower US Tariffs
The Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for India’s FY 26 GDP growth to 6.9%, citing resilient domestic demand and the recent easing of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. The projection contrasts with the Reserve Bank of India’s more bullish 7.6%...
China’s Lending Prioritizes Short‑Term Demand Over Viability
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
High Oil Prices Boost Colombian Peso, Brazilian Real
We've now reached the point where commodity exporters in Latin America are up from before the start of the war with Iran. We're getting a ceasefire, but oil prices will stay elevated for a long time. That lifts the ...
Asian Q1 Trade Surplus Rises as Chip Exports Soar
Rather large increase in the trade surplus of a couple of important Asian economies in the first quarter. Weak oil and gas import volumes in March, but mostly surging chip exports https://t.co/LP5kTo4Nfs
Dollar Slides, Commodity Currencies Surge as War Winds Down
We've entered the phase where the Dollar falls hard against EM. This is driven by a mix of markets feeling like the war is winding down and oil prices still very elevated, which boosts commodity exporting countries like Brazil. Real...
OPEC+ Supply Chains Crippled, US Fuels Global Allies
So, the oil and gas infrastructure of major OPEC+ producers in the Gulf and Russia is being blocked, disrupted, and damaged... While China is forced to halt exports of petroleum products, and the US is supplying fuel to satellite countries like...
Control of Hormuz Strait Determines Global Power Balance
Already both the U.S. and Iran are claiming to have won the war and are negotiating about the negotiations. As explained in my recent note, it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz, which will have big implications...
Trump Abandons Aggressive China Playbook, White House Reverses
Trump Quietly Scraps His Own Playbook on China The White House walks back the aggressive approach of the first administration, in a dramatic reversal Times change, leverage changes... https://t.co/emValbLeko via @WSJ
Seeking the Next China: High‑Upside Emerging Market ETFs
Hey @grok What emerging market or country ETF today feels like buying China in 2003 that most likely has a massive multi-year upside?
Iran’s Economy Stable, Mirroring Australia’s Growth Despite Media Claims
Contrary to Western propaganda, the Iranian economy DID NOT COLLAPSE prior to the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran’s growth profile is almost identical to Australia’s. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the financial press is either WRONG or...
Day 3 Ceasefire Holds: Hormuz Stays Still
Day 3 of the ceasefire: no movement in Hormuz (But the fragile truce seems to be holding on the ground, air and sea, despite sporadic violations, with not major attacks by either Iran or the US)
Sánchez to Demand China's Tech Secrets in Beijing
Sánchez to push China to hand over tech secrets on Beijing trip https://t.co/iSThlJP5lO via @basteiro https://t.co/gW7fldvHZn
China Q1 Car Sales Plunge Over 17%, NEVs Down 21%
1/2 Yicai: "China's retail sales of passenger cars declined more than 17 percent in the first quarter of the year, as new energy vehicle sales fell 21 percent following adjustments to the NEV purchase tax breaks." https://t.co/sWTFDBWjLi
China Touts Domestic Demand, yet Auto Sales Slump
China's leaders now at least give lip service to supporting domestic demand -- and sometimes even claim not to want to rely on exports for growth. But in at least one prominent sector, domestic demand is down (autos) 1/ https://t.co/jZxOmf68t9