Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Trump’s Iran War Gamble Backfires
Donald Trump’s decision to launch a full‑scale war against Iran collapsed because the United States entered without a plausible theory of victory. The campaign relied on airpower and maritime pressure to force regime change, end nuclear enrichment, destroy missile capabilities, and sever regional alliances, yet none of these objectives were achieved. Facing escalating costs, global market disruption, and domestic backlash, the administration pivoted to a cease‑fire that left Iran’s strategic posture largely intact. The fallout reshapes U.S. credibility, NATO cohesion, and resource allocation for other conflicts such as Ukraine.
Can World Bank and IMF Leaders Rescue a Global Economy on the Brink?
The World Bank and IMF will convene their annual meetings in Washington on April 13, amid escalating tensions after the US‑Israel strike on Iran. The conflict threatens global supply chains, especially energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and could dampen...
Thailand Feels Heat as Iran War Sparks Energy Shock
Iran’s war with Israel has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking the main oil transit route into Asia. Thailand, heavily reliant on imported crude, is experiencing an acute fuel shortage that is rippling through tourism, farming, street‑food...
How the Gulf Conflict Recast Risks for Asian Investors in Dubai
The six‑week Iran‑UAE conflict has exposed financial and operational vulnerabilities for Asian digital entrepreneurs using Dubai as a launchpad. Drone and missile attacks disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil to about $100 a barrel and tightening freight liquidity, while...
Macron Demands Concrete Action on Global Imbalances
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
China’s Middle East Billions Still Woefully Reliant on US Gunboats
China has pledged roughly US$145 billion in Middle East investments and construction contracts, yet it maintains only a single overseas military base in Djibouti. The region’s energy flow—especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 70% of China’s oil imports—remains...
‘Cancelling Orders’ in China: How Hormuz Oil Crisis Is Hitting Transport, Manufacturing
The reopening and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude to $100‑$105 a barrel, inflating fuel and petroleum‑based raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers. Higher freight rates—up to four times normal—are prompting firms to delay or...
UAE Pulls US$3.5 Billion From Pakistan After Iran War Mediation
The United Arab Emirates has demanded the repayment of a US$3.5 billion deposit held by Pakistan's central bank, signaling a sharp diplomatic rift after Islamabad helped broker a cease‑fire in the Iran war. The demand comes just days after Pakistan’s mediation...
Big Pharma Is Turning to China for the Newest Drug Ideas
Pfizer is intensifying its search for breakthrough cancer treatments by tapping Chinese biotech. Last summer the company paid $1.25 billion to Shanghai‑based 3SBio for rights to a promising oncology candidate. The move reflects a broader shift as China evolves from a...
Two‑Month Hormuz Reopening Too Late for Global Economy
Two months: that’s how long it might be before the Strait of Hormuz opens and resumes transit akin to before the war (from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett). Translation: We F’d up so bad and had zero plans to deal...
US Extends Russian Oil Waiver Amid Iran War Tensions
That says the Trump administration is ready for a deal with Iran, but is Iran ready? Is Netanyahu ready? US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/jMSFlgcOrq
Investec Secures $200 Million IFC Loan to Boost Green Buildings in South Africa
Investec Bank Limited has closed a $200 million senior unsecured loan with the International Finance Corporation, complemented by a $3.8 million UK‑backed incentive, to finance sustainable residential and commercial developments across South Africa. The facility targets projects that meet recognised green standards,...
KMT Chair’s Xi Meeting Signals Wider Regional Implications
KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun just met Xi Jinping. Events like this matter far beyond the Taiwan Strait https://t.co/QoX0QEMgRk https://t.co/RrjzHha4Xd
Smart Axiata Secures $50 Million Maybank Financing to Accelerate Cambodia 5G Rollout
Smart Axiata, the Cambodian arm of Malaysia's Axiata Group, has obtained a $50 million financing facility from Maybank Cambodia to speed up 5G network deployment and broader digital infrastructure. The deal aligns with Cambodia’s Digital Economy and Society Policy Framework and...
Kearney Survey Shows 88% of Investors Boost FDI Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index reveals that 88% of senior executives intend to expand FDI in the next three years, while 84% say industrial policy now drives capital allocation. The findings come as China climbs to fourth place...
U.S. Deputy Secretary Calls for Private‑Sector Diplomacy to Counter China in Emerging Markets
Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau told the Atlantic Council’s Global Prosperity Forum that the United States must mobilise its private sector to out‑compete Chinese firms across emerging economies. He outlined a three‑pronged commercial‑diplomacy strategy, warning that without risk mitigation...
Kenya Softens IMF Stance as Iran Conflict Fuels Balance‑of‑Payments Strain
Kenya's central bank governor Kamau Thugge said Nairobi will resume IMF negotiations in Washington this month, signaling a softer stance after the Iran‑US conflict widened the current‑account gap and forced a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 5.3%. The...
Russia Targets 10.3 M Bpd Oil Output in 2026, Novak Says
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Russia will lift oil output to 515 million metric tons in 2026 – about 10.3 million barrels per day – up from 512 million tons in 2025. The forecast comes as Moscow seeks to boost domestic...
Strait of Hormuz Lies Within Iran‑Oman Territorial Waters
Journalists, politicians, and so-called experts all omitting (disingenuously, I reckon) to mention that the Strait of Hormuz is not “high seas”, it is fully within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. RNZ still framing it all as US sycophants...
Longer-Term Impacts From War Constrain SET
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) experienced extreme volatility in March after Israel and the United States began bombing Iran, triggering a circuit‑breaker when the index dropped 8% on March 4. Oil prices surged nearly 40%, sending diesel to over 50 baht...
Iran Conditions Talks on Asset Release, Lebanon Ceasefire
JUST IN: Iran demands the release of its blocked assets and a ceasefire in Lebanon before entering talks.
Iran Ceasefire Eases Markets, Not Singapore’s Concerns
A cease‑fire in the Iran conflict has steadied global risk assets, but Singapore’s foreign affairs minister warned that the worst‑case energy‑supply shock is not fully priced in. Singapore responded with about S$1 billion (≈ $785 million) of support measures and urged reduced electricity...
Wall Street Strategists Wrestle with War’s Toll on 2026 Outlook
A fragile cease‑fire in the Middle East sparked a brief rally, lifting the S&P 500 3.6% – its strongest jump since November – while emerging‑market equities and Bitcoin surged. Wall Street strategists, however, warn the war has already scarred inflation, energy...
Neuron Energy to Build 5 GWh Battery Factory in India
Neuron Energy plans 5 GWh battery storage factory in India #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/lCGZ48gTkw
AIIB Boosts Climate Finance to $5.6 Bn in 2024, Targets Resilient Energy and Transport
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank announced that climate‑related projects will receive $5.6 bn in 2024, representing 67% of its total approved financing. The bank is scaling policy‑based loans, private‑capital partnerships and cross‑border grid initiatives to accelerate low‑carbon transitions in emerging Asian...
Cuban Foreign Minister Blames U.S. for Pressuring Latin Nations to End Cuban Doctors Program
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said the United States is extorting Latin American governments to terminate decades‑old agreements that send Cuban doctors abroad. The claim comes as Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica and Guyana have pulled the plug on the program that...
US Expands Regional Deployment, Unlikely to Pull Back
All the while the US has a massive additional deployment to the region underway. Will they stand it down or turn it back? I doubt it.
China’s 41‑Month Deflation Streak Ends, PPI Up 0.5%
China’s deflation streak is FINALLY OVER. Yesterday, after 41 straight months in the red, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) finally ended -- barely -- at 0.5%/yr. https://t.co/Ysgkv6ogB2
Thai Export Pain Set to Continue Despite Mideast Truce
Thai export growth is expected to stall at 0‑1% this year as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply chains and dampens demand in key markets. The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian tolls raises shipping costs, while...
Investors Are Gloomy About Inflation and Risk-Taking Ahead of Saturday’s Iran Talks
U.S. equities slipped on Friday as investors grew wary of rising inflation and the upcoming U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad. The Dow Jones fell 0.6%, the S&P 500 edged down 0.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4% after a week‑long rally. Market sentiment...
Brazil Pulls in $883 Million Equity Fund Inflows, Defying EM Outflows
Brazil's domestic equity funds attracted $883 million (about BRL 4.5 billion) of foreign money in the week to April 9, 2026, while equity funds across emerging markets recorded net outflows of $3.9 billion. The inflow, driven largely by index‑fund purchases, underscores renewed confidence in Brazil’s...
China Receives Global Concessions, Offers Little
Am sure Yufan describes the basic view of many in Beijing -- At the same time, the world has already made enormous accommodations to China, and I am not sure China has made much effort to accommodate other creditors that also...
Is the US Overlooking Turkmenistan in Its Iran Strategy?
The United States is weighing whether to tap Turkmenistan’s border airfields and logistics hubs as a foothold for operations against Iran amid a tentative cease‑fire. Turkmenistan, the only Central Asian nation sharing a 1,126‑km frontier with Iran, maintains a UN‑recognized...
Market Outlook: Impact of Ceasefire Success or Failure
My video looking out over the coming week: Market Outlook Should a Ceasefire Fail or Hold https://t.co/MVQDZY94oJ https://t.co/Ir3CZFs9DE
Chhangani Cited in House of Saud Article on How Iran Avoids US Sanctions and Sell Oil to China
Alisha Chhangani was quoted in a House of Saud analysis describing how Iran circumvents U.S. sanctions to continue oil shipments to China. The piece outlines Tehran's use of covert shipping routes, shell companies, and diplomatic channels to mask the origin...
AC Front Page Event with World Bank Group President Ajay Banga Featured in Reuters Article on Slower Global Growth and...
The Atlantic Council hosted a front‑page event featuring World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, whose remarks were subsequently highlighted in a Reuters piece on the slowdown in global growth. Banga warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is pushing oil prices...
Iran Pushes Hormuz Fees in Rial as Currency Gains 9%
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
Only Iranian-Linked Vessels Now Using the Strait
While everyone is focused on variations of this chart, the story reposted below might be more important. Essentially, only Iranian-linked ships are passing through the Strait; no one else. https://t.co/SvcJA7aoSC
The Future of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains technically open but is functionally constrained as Iran imposes coordination requirements and quasi‑tolls, turning the waterway into a tool of economic coercion. Shipping volumes have fallen sharply as insurers and operators avoid the heightened risk....
Strait Delays Threaten US Supply Chains, Global Crisis
White House/Trump. Opening the Strait will not happensoon. Delays with the Strait mean the impact will start to hit the US. And make global situation worse. What then? Will supply chains find a tenth circle of hell?
Imagining Iran Without Sanctions
The post argues that decades of foreign interference—first by Britain and the Soviet Union, then by the United States and Israel—have kept Iran under a sanctions‑driven siege despite its vast oil wealth. It highlights that 90% of Iran’s crude exits...
China, Russia Threaten Retaliation if Iran Is Flattened
1. Then open the waterway. 2. Tell us what China and/or Russia have threatened in retaliation for flattening Iran. https://t.co/0WWO6gawpE
War's Fallout Harms Global Economy, Boosts Russia
My view with @LenaPetrovaOnX on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran: “The outcome of the war is unambiguously bad for the world economy… except for Russia and China, with Russia being a big winner.” https://t.co/5Rj36XtJ4O
Nano Nuclear Energy to Invest $230 Million in Argentina’s Dioxitek Fuel Plant
Nano Nuclear Energy, a U.S. nuclear fuel company, announced a $230 million-plus investment to revive Argentina’s state‑run Dioxitek New Uranium Plant in Formosa. The deal, structured in two phases, would bring the stalled facility online, produce uranium dioxide domestically and eventually...
US‑Iran Talks Stall, Markets Slide Across Board
Based on this, US-Iran talks aren't going well 👎 Markets telling same story with stocks lower, gold lower, US dollar strengthens, oil rebounds https://t.co/ZmGKsaR6y5
GE Vernova Spin‑Off Accelerates B2B Power‑Generation Growth as Utility Demand Surges
GE Vernova’s 2024 spin‑off and the meteoric rise of its Indian transmission‑and‑distribution arm have positioned the company as a premier B2B supplier to utilities. A 2,800% stock gain, a 56% YoY revenue jump and a ₹14 trillion order backlog underscore the...
Hedging Security in the Gulf Is Risky
The Gulf states have long pursued a hedging strategy, balancing ties with the United States against the threat posed by Iran. Recent uncertainty over a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire highlights the fragility of that approach, exposing the region to heightened security...
Speculation Surges That US-Iran Talks in Pakistan Are a Delay Tactic
U.S.‑Iran negotiations slated for Islamabad are being viewed as a tactical pause while the Trump administration readies additional forces in the Persian Gulf. Open‑source logistics data suggest a surge in Marine and Airborne deployments ahead of the talks, hinting at...
FDI Inflows Drop to Four-Month Low
Foreign direct investment into the Philippines plunged 39.2% in January, reaching $443 million – the lowest level in four months. All major FDI components posted year‑on‑year declines, with equity and fund shares down 41.1% and reinvested earnings falling 56.6%. Japan topped...
ADB Trims 2026 Philippines Growth Outlook to 4.4 Percent
The Asian Development Bank’s April 2026 outlook lowered its Philippines GDP growth projection to 4.4% for the current year, down from the 5.3% forecast made in December. The downgrade is driven by uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and higher...