Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Why Hiring Talent Is a Growth Strategy
In this 7‑minute episode, Kalpana Fitzpatrick talks with Karen Hewitt of The Gym Group about how partnering with Jobcentre Plus has become a core growth strategy for the fast‑expanding gym chain. Hewitt explains the challenges of finding qualified Level 3 personal trainers and how the Accelerate PT program—developed with the Department for Work and supported by Jobcentre Plus’s sector‑based work academy (SWAP)—has turned over 60 candidates, including former navy personnel, into permanent trainers. The conversation highlights the commercial benefits of investing in recruitment and training, especially for Gen Z talent, as The Gym Group plans to open about 75 new gyms in the next three years. Hewitt advises other employers to leverage Jobcentre Plus’s no‑fee, tailored recruitment services and build strong relationships with local advisors to tap into motivated talent pipelines.
The Ceasefire, Africa and Senior: Companies and Markets Show
The episode opens with Julian Hoffman dissecting the shaky US‑Iran ceasefire, highlighting the lack of clear terms, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the mixed market reaction that has nonetheless lifted European equities and trimmed oil prices. The...
Venezuela’s Treacherous Recovery
The United States has installed an interim caretaker government in Venezuela after removing President Maduro, opening the door to a potential economic rebound driven by oil, mining and diaspora capital. Restoring oil production could require more than $100 billion and a...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Doubts over Islamabad Talks This Weekend
Iranian state media rejected reports of a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, insisting talks will only resume after a Lebanon ceasefire. Japan’s finance minister Shunichi Katayama warned of possible FX intervention as oil‑driven volatility spikes, while the Bank of Japan flagged...
China Fills Infrastructure Gap, yet Cuts Sovereign Loans
Kevin Gallagher and Rebecca Ray: "Given that financing from the World Bank and its counterparts has remained stagnant since the 1990s, China has helped fill widening infrastructure gaps across the Global South. That’s the good news. The bad news is...
Asian Economies Face ‘Formidable Test’ as Middle East Conflict Drags On: ADB
The Asian Development Bank warned that the ongoing US‑Israeli war with Iran will blunt Asia’s growth momentum, revising the region’s 2026 GDP expansion to 5.1% from 5.4% in 2025. If the conflict persists for a year, the bank estimates a...
Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Middle East Energy Shock Ends China’s Deflation, Prices Rise
Middle East Energy Shock Snaps China’s Deflationary Streak—Factory-gate prices rise in China for the first time in over three years @hannahmiao_ https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5 https://t.co/8yOC6VYhc5
Central Pattana Launches $3 B Mixed‑use Development Push in Thailand
Central Pattana Plc announced a THB 110 billion ($3 billion) investment plan to roll out 33 mixed‑use developments by 2030. The strategy targets new economic districts in Bangkok and regional growth centres, aiming to generate jobs and recurring income.
Energy Shock Drives Rapid Borrowing Cost Surge in Africa, Asia
This is how Hormuz turns into a debt crisis Borrowing costs are spiking across the developing world—fastest where resilience is weakest. Borrowing costs are up 0.64% in Africa and 0.7% in Asia Energy shock → higher yields → tighter liquidity. https://t.co/Pbx05iepX6 #DebtCrisis #OilMarkets...
Argentina Sets Record 874,000 Bpd Oil Output as Vaca Muerta Shale Booms
Argentina's oil output climbed to a record 874,000 barrels per day, up 15.9% from a year earlier, as the Vaca Muerta shale complex ramps up production. The surge lifts the country's share of global oil supply and fuels optimism on...
Japanese Yen Near 159/$ and Korean Won Drop to 1,480/$ Amid Fragile US‑Iran Ceasefire
The Japanese yen slipped back toward ¥159 per dollar and the South Korean won opened at 1,480.6 per dollar as investors reacted to renewed doubts over a newly‑brokered US‑Iran ceasefire. The moves underscore how Middle‑East geopolitics are reverberating through Asian...
EU Poised to Slash up to €1.5B in Funding to Serbia over Democracy Fears
European Commission is considering withholding up to €1.5 billion (about $1.6 billion) in conditional funding to Serbia over concerns about democratic backsliding, including recent judicial reforms and media repression. The decision hinges on whether Serbia complies with recommendations from the Council of...
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto Could Visit Russia Soon, Kremlin Says
Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto is preparing a visit to Russia, where he is expected to meet Vladimir Putin and discuss potential oil purchases. The Kremlin confirmed talks are underway as Asian nations scramble for alternative energy amid a widening Middle‑East‑driven crisis....
Financial Services Bear Maximum Brunt of Late-March FPI Selloff
Foreign portfolio investors dumped over ₹60,000 crore (≈ $7.2 billion) from Indian financial services in the second half of March, the steepest outflow since 2012. The sell‑off peaked at ₹28,824 crore (≈ $3.5 billion) from March 16‑31, contributing 43% of the ₹67,081 crore (≈ $8.1 billion) withdrawn across 21 sectors. Banking...
Global Birth Rates Keep Dropping Despite $1,000 Baby Bonuses and Other Incentives
Birth rates are sliding worldwide even as governments roll out cash bonuses, tax tweaks and relaxed family‑size limits. New Zealand’s natural increase fell to just over 19,000 births in 2023, the lowest since World War II, while the United States, Russia...
US‑Iran Two‑Week Ceasefire Falters as Lebanon Strikes Ignite Market Turmoil
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but within 48 hours Israel’s heavy bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory moves have rattled the deal. The fallout has knocked the CAC 40 lower, slumped India’s Sensex by 1,100...
Shanghai Cooperation Organization Takes Steps to Open Financing Arm
Kyrgyzstan, set to chair the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2026, is pushing to launch an SCO Development Bank (SCODB) during its tenure. The bank concept was approved by all ten SCO members at the 2025 summit, with Chinese President Xi...
Asia-Pacific Markets Set to Open Mixed as Renewed Tensions Test a Fragile Iran-U.S. Ceasefire
Asia‑Pacific markets opened mixed on Friday as renewed Middle‑East tensions tested a fragile two‑week Iran‑U.S. ceasefire. Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks provided attacks stop, while Israel also signaled compliance. Oil prices rose, with WTI...
DEBATE | Marc Faber vs Brent Johnson: What Comes Next After The Iran War?
Thoughtful Money moderated a live debate between Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, and Brent Johnson, founder of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, to assess the fallout from the US‑Israel war with Iran. The discussion explored whether...
China Lures Home Its Top AI Talent From Silicon Valley
Over the past year more than thirty AI researchers have left Silicon Valley for Chinese tech giants, including ByteDance and Tencent. High‑profile defections such as Wu Yonghui from Google DeepMind and Yao Shunyu from OpenAI illustrate a broader reverse migration....
EU Trade Deal Set to Change India’s Wine Industry
The EU‑India trade agreement, signed in January, will cut tariffs on European wines from 150 percent to 75 percent initially and eventually to 20 percent, opening a market valued at $450 million in 2024 and projected to grow 14 percent by 2029. European vintners have...
Ceasefire of the Madman
HSBC’s latest geopolitical paper argues that a de‑escalation of global tensions will diminish the U.S. dollar’s safe‑haven appeal. With reduced risk, demand for the dollar should fall, allowing higher‑risk, undervalued currencies to rally. Emerging‑market (EM) currencies and those of energy‑importing...
Middle East Crisis Is Pushing China to Deepen Latin America Ties
Amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted China's vulnerability to concentrated energy supplies. Beijing is turning to Latin America for food, copper, lithium and other strategic commodities to diversify its import base. The United States'...
Colombia Cae a BB- Con Perspectiva Estable, Su Peor Calificación en 30 Años Y Por Debajo De La Crisis De...
Standard & Poor’s has lowered Colombia’s sovereign credit rating from BB to BB‑, marking the country’s weakest rating in more than three decades and a level not seen even during the 1999 crisis. The downgrade reflects a widening fiscal deficit...
Asian Stocks Shy of Full Recovery Amid Fragile Iran Ceasefire
A tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran lifted some pressure on Asian equity markets on Wednesday. However, the rally was limited as Israel’s large‑scale strikes on Lebanon, which Tehran says breach the truce, kept regional tensions high. Major...
US‑Iran Two‑Week Ceasefire Tested as Israel Escalates in Lebanon, Oil Markets Jolt
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but Israel’s massive bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have already strained the truce. Oil prices surged, dragging down European...
Iran Temporarily Closes Strait of Hormuz, Crude Futures Surge Over 5%
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh announced a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of breaching the cease‑fire. The move pushed U.S. crude oil futures more than 5% higher after a 16% plunge the day before, reviving...
AI Hype, Hard Lessons: Where SEA’s Startup Capital Is Really Going
Cooley partner David He told e27 that Southeast Asia’s startup funding landscape has shifted dramatically, with capital becoming more disciplined and expectations higher. AI has emerged as the dominant sector, now attracting a sizable share of new investments. He identified...
Mexican Startups Overtake Brazil in Q1 VC Funding
Mexican startups outperformed their Brazilian counterparts in the first quarter, raising a total of $404M compared to Brazil’s $240M. Historically, Brazil has been the powerhouse in Latin America for venture capital funding. But it’s not the first time in recent quarters...
Macro Buffers to Help India Tide over Gulf Crisis: World Bank
The World Bank projects India’s GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, noting that the ongoing Gulf conflict could shave a few tenths off the outlook. It assumes oil prices of $90‑100 a barrel and expects growth to rebound to about...
Emerging Markets Leapfrog Oil, Embrace Energy Tech
Emerging Markets are Leapfrogging Oil and Gas ...just like the Global South leapfrogged landline phones and rapidly adopted cellular at scale. With @KingsmillBond of ember_energy. #uspoli #cdnpoli https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/emerging-market-are-leapfrogging
“The West Has Completely Lost Its Soul, but the Iranians Are Searching for Theirs” — Interview with Alastair Crooke (Part...
In a three‑part interview, former MI6 officer Alastair Crooke argues that the West has succumbed to post‑modern nihilism, while Iran’s elite fuse Western philosophy with Shiite tradition to craft a broader worldview. He warns that Israel’s rhetoric about tactical nuclear...
Markets Calm as Middle East Tensions Ease, Bull Persists
Stress levels in the financial markets have subsided a bit as the conflict in the Middle East enters its 5th week. Bonds and equities (and their vols) have moderated as the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up...
China-US Trade Relations: Between Engagement and Decoupling
A new national web survey of 810 Americans reveals a nuanced view of U.S.-China trade. While a majority consider the relationship important (7.27/10), 59% label China’s trade practices unfair and 34% deem current trade inequitable. Partisan gaps are stark: Republicans...
Can FPIs Return to Dalal Street Soon? Nithin Kamath Outlines the Roadblocks
Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn ₹1.77 lakh crore in FY26, surpassing 2025 outflows. Zerodha co‑founder Nithin Kamath cited geopolitical tensions, rich valuations, limited AI opportunities, and tax changes as key deterrents. He warned that investor sentiment toward India has “pretty much died out,”...
Middle East War Headlines Instantly Dent Oil and Gilt Markets
Markets remain incredibly sensitive to Middle East War headlines. Case in point: the latest Israel-Lebanon headlinea erased 4 percentage points of today’s oil price gains (CNBC chart below). Even more significantly, they took 8 basis points off the 10-year UK gilt...
China Poised to End PPI Deflation in March
Probably the most globally consequential data point you didn’t know was coming out this week. China is expected to have exited PPI deflation in March. Data due in ~90 min. https://t.co/i6OFkfd0Ki
UAE Oil Chief Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber: 'The Strait of Hormuz Is Not Open'
UAE oil chief Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite a U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, noting that Iran still controls ship movements and imposes permits. About one‑fifth of global oil passes through the narrow waterway, and the continued...
Live Talk: Iran War Ceasefire's Impact on Oil
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
Gold, Not Currency, Will Dominate Future Reserves
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
America’s War Is Adding to Africa’s Debt Burden
The US‑Israeli war in Iran has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, adding roughly $4.4 billion to Africa’s annual debt burden. With $149 billion of Eurobonds outstanding, the continent now faces $900 million to $1.2 billion of extra fiscal pressure each year. The increase stems...
Iran, US Escalate Tensions Ahead of Ceasefire Talks
Both Tehran and Washington are upping the ante ahead of the ceasefire talks over the weekend. But raising the stakes increases the miscalculation risk: “We will definitely bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz to a new stage,” Iranian...
Brazilian Real Leads Global Gains, Heralding New LatAm Cycle
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
India Navigating Global Uncertainties Like a ‘Chakravyuh’: Shaktikanta Das
India’s economy grew 7.6% in FY 2025‑26, showing resilience amid heightened global volatility. Principal Secretary Shaktikanta Das likened navigating the crisis to a “Chakravyuh,” stressing that a calibrated exit is essential to avoid new imbalances. He pointed to macro‑stability, rapid digitalisation,...
China Secures Germany’s Premier Robotics Asset
How China Acquired Germany’s #Robotics Crown Jewel by @JacklouisP #AI #MachineLearning #ArtificialIntelligence #ML #Innovation https://t.co/DuFtEGfyDb
US Leverage Forces Israel to End Lebanon War Quickly
The US has major leverage over Israel, so there's no way war in Lebanon continues if it prevents a ceasefire with Iran and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This war is a big political liability for Republicans and...
Indonesian Rupiah Slides to 17,070 per Dollar, Squeezing Businesses
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to roughly 17,070 per U.S. dollar on April 9, 2026, intensifying cost‑push inflation for manufacturers that rely on imported components. Business leaders warned the slide threatens cash flow, margins and overall demand, and urged the government...
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Iran Ceasefire Sends Prediction Markets Into Turmoil
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9