Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Pakistanis Face up to 54% Rise in Fuel Prices
Pakistan announced record fuel price hikes on April 3, 2026, with petrol rising 49 cents per litre and diesel jumping 67 cents, a rise of up to 54 percent. The surge, driven by the Middle East conflict and global oil price spikes, follows a 20 percent increase just a month earlier. The government called the hikes unavoidable while offering free public transport for 30 days and promising subsidies for motorcyclists, who make up about 78 percent of vehicles. Economists warn the higher fuel costs will exacerbate inflation and strain low‑income households.
Iranian Crude Tanker Reroutes to China, Highlighting Shifts in Global Oil Supply Chain
The Eswatini‑flagged tanker Ping Shun, loaded with Iranian crude, abandoned its planned berth at India's Vadinar port and signaled a new destination of Dongying, China. The sudden change, tracked by maritime data services, reflects mounting geopolitical pressure on Iran and a...
NDB Pushes Yuan‑denominated Financing, Sells $3.6 Bn in Panda Bonds to Boost Global South Projects
The New Development Bank (NDB) announced a push for yuan‑denominated funding, having sold 25 billion yuan ($3.6 bn) in panda bonds last year – its biggest issuance since 2016. The move aims to give Global South projects cheaper, locally‑hedged capital and to...
2008: Bucharest NATO Summit
At the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, alliance leaders issued a declaration that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become NATO members. The pledge was driven by strong U.S. advocacy and Ukraine’s pro‑Western president, Viktor Yushchenko. Germany and France blocked an...
Brazil Rejects U.S. Push to Change Pix Instant Payment System
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced the government will not alter the Pix instant‑payment platform after a U.S. report accused it of distorting trade. The stance highlights Brazil’s commitment to a state‑run fintech model that serves over 120 million...
Ukraine – Invest Now Rather than Later
Ukraine’s war‑torn economy, valued around $400 bn, is poised for a massive $800 bn capital influx that could double its size. Investors can tap high‑yield opportunities such as 22%+ gross returns from Kyiv real estate, 10× upside in blue‑chip stocks, and a...
EU Lawmakers Press China on Unsafe Products and Market access...China Takes Spot From Japan as Australia’s Top Auto supplier...China’s EV...
EU lawmakers confronted Chinese officials in Beijing over a wave of unsafe, non‑compliant products and limited market access for European firms, highlighting consumer safety and forced‑labour concerns. In February, China overtook Japan as Australia’s top source of imported vehicles, capturing...
Hormuz Blockade Driving a Gulf Logistics Revolution
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forced Gulf states to fast‑track a network of alternative logistics corridors, including the Oman‑UAE Green Corridor, a Saudi‑UAE trade bridge, and the Gulf Shuttle maritime service. New ultra‑heavy‑lift cranes, expanded rail capacity and...
‘Liberation Day’ Anniversary, War on Iran, Taiwan’s KMT Visits Beijing
China commemorated the anniversary of its Liberation Day with large‑scale patriotic displays and a televised military parade, underscoring Beijing’s emphasis on national unity. At the same time, Chinese officials issued stark warnings to the United States and its allies over...
The Middle East’s Butterfly Effect on the Global Economy
Gulf sovereign wealth funds now control roughly $4.9 trillion and are projected to exceed $7 trillion by 2030, making the region a top global capital allocator. Recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz cut oil shipments, sending crude above $100 a barrel...
Is the US Dollar Collapse Imminent?
The episode examines whether a collapse of the US dollar is imminent, focusing on how recent Middle East conflicts have accelerated the shift of some nations toward trading oil in currencies like the yuan, ruble, or cryptocurrencies to avoid US...
The Best Funds to Buy as Vietnam Evolves
Vietnam is poised to shift from a frontier to an emerging market when FTSE Russell reclassifies it in September 2026, unlocking broader investor access. The economy’s growth is driven by export diversification, a massive investment push, and a burgeoning middle class,...
Hormuz as Precedent
The UN Security Council is set to vote on Bahrain’s revised resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, replacing the original language that authorized "all necessary means" with a more limited, defensive clause. China, which had opposed the initial draft,...
US Tariff Uncertainty Pushes Indian Exporters to More Stable Markets Like Japan
Indian textile exporters are facing near‑impossible conditions in the United States after a Supreme Court decision overturned Trump‑era tariffs and a new 10% global duty was imposed. The uncertainty has forced manufacturers to cut production, lay off workers, and accept...
China Adds Household Income Boost to Top Policy
1/12 Caixin: "For the first time, China has embedded a dedicated plan to raise household incomes into a top-level national policy document, signaling a change in priorities as policymakers grapple with persistently weak consumer spending." https://t.co/ynrYu49v8R
Q1 2026 Dim Sum Issuance Rises 14% to 400bn Yuan
Caixin: "For the first quarter of 2026, dim sum issuance totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, up 14% from a year earlier." https://t.co/yksX2koWPr
CRE Trends Amid Demographic Shifts and Geopolitical Tensions
Cushman & Wakefield’s latest Market Matters report links slowing U.S. population growth and modest job losses to softer demand for multifamily and office space, while noting that recent CRE transaction volume and debt liquidity remain resilient. Energy price volatility from...
Drone Strikes Destroy 40% of Russia's Primorsk Oil Storage
Exclusive: Russia's Primorsk oil terminal lost 40% of storage to drone attacks, satellite images show https://t.co/zqKHubcFrw
Kremlin Says Strait of Hormuz Open for Russia
MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was open for Russia.
Transcript: Economic Warfare — Lessons From History, with Mark Harrison
The Economics Show hosted by Soumaya Keynes examined the effectiveness of economic warfare with historian Mark Harrison, who traced its evolution from revenue‑denial blockades in the 18th century to modern supply‑chain sanctions. He highlighted the Allied blockade that helped force...
Tokenization Makes Finance More Efficient but Introduces Risks: IMF
The International Monetary Fund warned that while tokenization can cut friction and boost transparency, it also introduces financial‑stability risks. About $27.6 billion of real‑world assets are already tokenized on‑chain, with forecasts ranging from $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030. The IMF highlighted...
How China Reinvented the BRI
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rebounded in 2025, reaching $213.5 billion in project value and surpassing its 2016 peak. China’s foreign trade hit $6.3 trillion, delivering a record $1.2 trillion surplus. The BRI has been repurposed from pure infrastructure to a tool...
India's Markets Crash Wipes Out $126 Bn of Investor Wealth
Indian stocks slumped more than 2% on April 2, with the Sensex and Nifty each losing over 2% and total market capitalisation shedding about ₹10.45 lakh crore (≈$126 bn). The plunge was driven by heightened West‑Asia tensions, a record foreign‑institutional outflow and soaring oil...
Gunmen Kill Over 70 in South Sudan Gold‑Mine Clash, Spotlighting Mining Violence
Gunmen attacked a gold‑mine site in South Sudan, leaving over 70 dead. The massacre, reported by Xinhua via Big News Network, highlights the deadly intersection of mineral extraction and armed conflict in the region, raising urgent questions about security, governance...
Kazakhstan's Central Bank Sells $400 Million to Bolster Tenge as Oil Prices Rise
Kazakhstan's National Bank sold $400 million from the National Fund in March, using the proceeds to support the budget and shore up the tenge, which rose 3.9% to 478 per dollar. The move, accounting for about 6% of daily FX volume,...
India’s First Iranian Oil Shipment Rerouted to China
🇮🇳While the media highlighted India's first Iranian oil shipment in recent years, Kpler tracking now shows the vessel has been redirected to China. Will get an update tomorrow. Map form @Kpler
India's FX Reserves Drop $11.4B to $698B Amid Gold Sell‑off
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves shrank by $11.4 billion to $698 billion for the week ending March 20, 2026, after a sharp decline in gold holdings. The drop follows a record peak of $728.5 billion two weeks earlier and coincides with heightened geopolitical tension and a...
Nomura Cuts India Rating to Neutral, Urges Shift to Korea and China Amid Oil Spike
Nomura has downgraded Indian equities to Neutral from Overweight, warning that soaring energy costs, AI lag and a slowdown in domestic inflows could pressure valuations. The broker also flagged $61.2 bn of foreign outflows and suggested investors re‑allocate to Korean equities,...
Wang Yi Works the Phones About Iran War; CICIR Head on National Security; Pig Overcapacity; Wemby's Time at Shaolin; Balanced...
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively dialing diplomatic lines over the past 24 hours, speaking with the foreign ministers of Germany, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as well as the EU’s High Representative on the Iran crisis. He has...
No IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings without a Global Crisis
The IMF and World Bank’s April 13‑18 spring meetings will be dominated by a supply‑side crisis sparked by the Iran war and the de‑facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions to oil, gas, helium and aluminum shipments are inflating...
U.K. Hosts Coalition Talks to Reopen Hormuz—Without the U.S.
The United Kingdom convened virtual talks with over 40 nations to form a coalition aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since its war began on Feb. 28. The United States was absent, with President Trump...
Proterial Ltd. Targets India's Rare‑Earth Magnet Incentive to Cut China Dependence
Japan’s Proterial Ltd., owned by a Bain Capital‑led consortium, is weighing participation in India’s newly announced incentive scheme for rare‑earth magnet production. The move signals a strategic push to shift part of the supply chain out of China and into...
Options Traders Flock to Brazil as Low Volatility Meets Clean‑Energy Upside
Options desks are piling into Brazil’s emerging‑market equity and bond space, citing unusually low implied volatility and a clean‑energy narrative that sets the country apart from peers. Call‑spread strategies on the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) have gained traction as...
Walton Global Courts Investors For U.S. Fund As Money Starts Shifting Away From Gulf
Walton Global has launched the U.S. Land Income & Growth Fund, a Shariah‑compliant vehicle aimed at offshore investors, especially in Asia and the Middle East. The fund seeks to acquire undeveloped, pre‑entitled land in high‑growth U.S. markets such as Dallas‑Fort Worth,...
Liquidity CEO Discusses UAE’s Strategic Advantage Despite Regional Turmoil
Liquidity, an AI‑driven fintech lender with a multi‑billion‑dollar portfolio, operates its largest office in Abu Dhabi and a second hub in Tel Aviv. Amid escalating US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, more than half of its staff are located in the conflict...
How To Break Up With China
The article outlines a strategic playbook for U.S. firms seeking to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing and market exposure. It highlights three core steps: mapping critical supply‑chain nodes, building alternative sourcing hubs in Southeast Asia and Mexico, and renegotiating contracts...
Trump Tariffs Cast Shadow as US-China Trade Shrinks Ahead of Xi Meeting
U.S. trade data released Thursday shows direct commerce with China continuing to shrink, reaching one of the lowest bilateral goods deficits in two decades. The decline follows last year’s tariff escalations, which have deepened economic tensions between the two powers....
Wind Turbine Giant to Invest over $10bn in Green Fuels Projects
Chinese wind turbine maker Mingyang announced plans to pour more than $10 bn into renewable energy, green hydrogen and ammonia projects in Ethiopia. The pledge was disclosed by the Ethiopian Investment Commission following a business forum that secured over $13 bn in...
MUFG Warns Philippine Peso Could Slip Past P61 per Dollar as Oil Shock Lingers
MUFG's research arm says the Philippine peso could break the P61 per dollar barrier if oil prices remain elevated amid the Middle East conflict. The outlook follows a series of record lows, with the peso at P60.748/$1, and comes as...
KB Kookmin Bank Launches QR‑Code Payments in Indonesia, Tapping 32 Million Merchants
KB Kookmin Bank announced the rollout of a QR‑code payment service in Indonesia, giving its customers access to more than 32 million merchants. The move makes KB the first Korean bank to connect directly to Indonesia's national QR network and follows...
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
US Blames China for Harassing Panama‑Flagged Ships
The US accused China of harassing and detaining #Panama-flagged ships after the Central American nation struck down contracts with a Hong Kong conglomerate operating ports on both sides of the Panama Canal. https://t.co/l49JKUezz4
Several Measures Announced to Cushion Exporters From Gulf Conflict Impact: DGFT
The Indian government announced a suite of measures to protect exporters from disruptions caused by the Gulf region conflict. Exporters of gems, jewellery, rice, pharma and other high‑value goods, which generated about $57 billion in FY 2024‑25, face rising freight costs, war‑risk...
Turkey's $40bn Lira Defense Mirrors 2025 Intervention
Factoring in gold, I estimate Turkey has intervened to the tune of $40 bn in March 2026 to defend the Lira. That's the same as in March and April 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, an episode that ended...
UK Accuses Iran of Hormuz ‘Hijack,’ Holding Global Economy Hostage
The United Kingdom accused Iran of hijacking the Strait of Hormuz, effectively holding the global economy hostage as Iranian attacks have halted almost all commercial traffic. Over 40 nations gathered virtually to discuss diplomatic pathways for reopening the waterway, emphasizing...
Markets Overreact, Then Calm After Political Shocks
Trump knows the market stops overreacting given enough time to digest Happened with the tarrifs too - as 'Liberation Day' grew 4+ weeks old... the market became indifferent and started going up anyway So far, it's happening again with the Iran War
Iran Drafts Protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz Traffic
Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed a draft protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing safety rather than restrictions. The agreement, described as post‑war housekeeping, includes plans to levy tolls on transiting vessels. Tehran frames the...
Iran War and Hormuz Blockade: A Marathon, Not Sprint
"Pace yourself. The Iran War and Hormuz closure is a marathon, not a sprint." https://t.co/BU5JGk7A7w
Iran War Prep, UK Drift, China Gains: US Crisis
Devastating frontpage for America. 1/ Iran preparing for prolonged war 2/ UK leaning away from US alliance 3/ strength in China's bond market due to the Iran war What a disaster. https://t.co/XMURlfO7uv
Iran Turns Hormuz Passage Into Paid ‘Peace’ Toll
Iran’s ‘Tollbooth’ Tightens Grip on Hormuz as Ships Offered Safe Passage—For a Price. Will this be the “peace” of the war? https://t.co/cD3EleDx1i