Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Iran War Accelerates Chinese US Treasure Bill Sell Off
China has accelerated the sale of its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, dropping from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn—a $50 bn decline in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The sell‑off follows a pattern of larger drawdowns during the 2019 trade war and the 2022 sanctions wave, and coincides with Beijing ordering commercial banks to liquidate $70‑$200 bn of T‑bills. Analysts view the move as a geopolitical signal, potentially foreshadowing a broader shift away from the dollar amid the Iran war and rising tensions over Taiwan. The broader BRICS trend shows similar reductions, hinting at a coordinated challenge to the petrodollar system.
Iran's Conventional Strength Forces Global Trade Reset
I wrote this at the beginning of the war. I don't like to predict things, but it appears that the initial probabilities I'd spoken of have kinda sorta come about. The war will continue, but now there is an attempt...
UK, Allies Mull Fresh Iran Sanctions as Hormuz Toll Threatens Oil Supply Chain
Britain and a coalition of allies announced they are drafting new sanctions on Iran after Tehran imposed a $2 million toll on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while European nations rebuffed President Trump’s request for military support. The move threatens...
Nigeria Approves $6 Billion External Borrowing, Sparking Debt‑Sustainability Alarm
Nigeria’s National Assembly cleared a fresh $6 billion external loan, prompting Afrinvest to warn that the move could undo recent improvements in the country’s debt‑to‑GDP ratio. The report flags falling reserves, a weakening naira and looming fertilizer price shocks as additional...
Middle East Conflict Lifts Crude to $111 a Barrel, Snarls Shipping and Spikes Global Inflation Risk
The war in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude to $111 a barrel, forced Indian refiners to divert tankers to China, and left basmati exporters invoking force majeure. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and airline routes is...
ASX 200 Slides 1% to 8,579 as Trump’s Iran Threat Spurs Oil Surge and Risk‑Off Sell‑Off
The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 92.3 points, or 1.06%, at 8,579.5 on Thursday, erasing Wednesday’s gains after President Donald Trump warned of “very hard” strikes on Iran. Brent crude jumped about 5‑6% to $107 a barrel, driving a broad market...
Anonymous App Fizz Hits Saudi App Store #1 in 48 Hours, Proving Rapid Traction in a Censored Market
Fizz, the anonymous social networking app founded by Stanford dropouts Teddy Solomon and Ashton Cofer, vaulted to the top of Saudi Arabia’s App Store charts within 48 hours of launch, logging more than 1 million messages. The surge follows a $40 million funding...
Sixth Week of Hormuz War Sparks Oil Demand Destruction
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign. For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although...
Zimbabwe Push to Extend President Rule Risks Elite Rifts, Weakened Democracy
Zimbabwe’s ruling party ZANU‑PF has introduced a constitutional amendment bill that would extend the presidential and parliamentary terms by two years, allowing President Emmerson Mnangagwa to stay in office until 2030. The proposal also seeks to abolish direct presidential elections,...
EU-India FTA May Boost India's Competitiveness in some Sectors: EY Report
EY’s March 2026 European Economic Outlook notes that the newly announced EU‑India free trade agreement will have limited macro impact on Europe but could sharpen India’s competitiveness in select sectors such as minerals and textiles. The report flags that U.S....
Strait of Hormuz Now Central as Vulnerabilities Rise
“They've demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable the global economy is,” said a European official briefed on diplomatic efforts to end the war. “So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz never...
Supply Shocks and Fiscal Math: How the War Is Stress-Testing India’s Economy
In a recent Businessline State of the Economy podcast, Union Bank of India's chief economic advisor Kanika Pasricha dissected the early economic effects of the Ukraine‑Russia war on India. She highlighted a steep decline in the manufacturing PMI caused by...
Aligned Signals Reveal a Larger Market Shift Coming
It wasn’t a surprise. You could see it in the buildup. In the positioning. In the signals across systems. Not just geopolitics — but markets too. Because markets don’t just react. They position. And when multiple signals align, it usually means something bigger is already underway. More on the website. #Geopolitics...
Canada Seeks to Grow Financial Services in China
1/12 Bloomberg: "Canada pitched expanding its financial services presence in the Chinese market as the northern nation aims to increase exports to its second-largest trading partner in a push to diversify from the US." https://t.co/MifJtmoDWc
U.S. Slaps 100% Tariff on Patented Drug Imports, Prompting Industry Pushback
The United States announced a 100% tariff on imported patented pharmaceuticals and ingredients effective July 31, while exempting generic drugs. The move targets a market that accounts for roughly 40% of India’s pharma exports and has triggered swift responses from Indian...
China’s Urban Rail Investment Slumps 34% in 2026
1/4 Caixin: "Investment in China’s urban rail networks is set to plunge nearly 34% in 2026, the fifth consecutive year of declining capital expenditure, as local governments struggle with mounting operating losses and tighter project-approval requirements." https://t.co/s0B8GEvatW
India’s First Census in 15 Years Adds Caste Data
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India launches its first census in 15+ years. It will include caste data for the first time in nearly a century. THE GRANULAR DETAIL OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE WORLD’S MOST POPULOUS NATION WILL BE EDIFYING. Stay tuned. https://t.co/DL2ZRYi9sW
Bahrain’s Crackdown Intensifies as Detainee’s Death Fuels Unrest Amid Iran War
Bahrain’s security forces have arrested dozens and returned the body of Shiite detainee Mohamed al‑Mousawi, showing clear signs of torture. The incident, occurring as the Iran‑U.S./Israel war rages, deepens sectarian tension and threatens stability in a key Gulf emerging market.
Vietnam's Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 7.83%
JUST IN: Vietnam's GDP expanded by 7.83% year-over-year in Q1, down from 8.46% in Q4.
India’s Crypto Exchanges Reach 49 Registered, Marking Regulatory Shift
India’s Financial Intelligence Unit has certified 49 cryptocurrency exchanges under its anti‑money‑laundering framework, turning a fragmented market into a regulated ecosystem. The move promises tighter fraud controls, clearer tax rules and a more attractive environment for institutional investors.
The Week in Charts: Jet Fuel Prices, FPI Exodus, E20 Vehicle Gap
India’s economy faces multiple pressures as the West Asia war fuels a global energy squeeze. Jet fuel prices have surged, squeezing airline fares, while the manufacturing PMI slipped to a 45‑month low of 53.9 in March, indicating a sharp slowdown....
How Emerging Markets Borrow: New Evidence on Sovereign Bond Issuance
The authors analyze 75,000 sovereign bond auctions from 20 emerging‑market economies (2000‑2023) to uncover how timing decisions differ by currency. Local‑currency issuances closely track refinancing needs, while foreign‑currency issuances are driven by global financial conditions, investor sentiment, and terms‑of‑trade shocks....
Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s Unclear that Ends Unclear
In this J.P. Morgan Weekender episode, Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dissect the latest U.S. labor market data, ongoing energy price shocks, and their implications for global growth. They highlight that while growth momentum remains supported by technology and business...
Will the Iran War Redraw the Global Energy Map?
The Iran‑Israel conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, instantly choking a key artery for global oil shipments. The disruption has triggered a sharp supply shock, pushing crude prices higher and exposing Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East...
Stabilizing Foreign Investment: China’s Upgraded Industry Investment Guide
China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 Catalogue for Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment on February 1, 2026, expanding the list to 1,679 entries – 205 new and 303 revised. The updated guide pivots...
How the Iran War Could Scramble the Climate Tech Capital Stack
The Iran‑Iran war’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking oil exports, slashing revenues for Gulf sovereign wealth funds and oil‑backed venture arms. Those investors have been a major source of early‑stage climate‑tech capital, funding electric mobility, clean hydrogen,...
Mideast Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Equities
Asian equities stayed under pressure as the Middle East conflict dampened optimism, though the Thai SET index nudged up 0.5% to 1,454 points, supported by net buying of roughly $126 million from brokerages. Oil price fears linger, with European policymakers warning...
Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk
Malaysian equities may experience a two‑quarter dip as geopolitical tensions, a weakening ringgit and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts compress interest‑rate spreads, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank analysts. Despite this, earnings for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) remain largely...
Uzbekistan Advances $40 Million Aviagen Poultry Project, Boosting Emerging‑market Agriculture
Uzbekistan announced it is pushing ahead with a $40 million poultry project backed by U.S. firm Aviagen. The investment aims to modernise the country's egg and meat production, create jobs and deepen ties with Western agribusiness. Analysts see the deal as...
Vietnam’s VN‑Index Surpasses 1,700 Points, Posts 1.7% Gain Amid Regional Volatility
The VN‑Index on Ho Chi Minh City’s exchange closed at 1,702.93, up 28.44 points (1.7%) for a second straight day, breaking the 1,700‑point barrier. Gains were driven by strong performance from Vingroup‑related stocks and a surge in market liquidity to...
Romania Deploys €1 Billion to Shield Leu Amid Global Market Turmoil
Romania’s central bank intervened with more than €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in March to support the leu amid a market rout sparked by the Middle East conflict. The move underscores the fragility of smaller European currencies and the lengths sovereigns will go...
Indian Sensex Gains 1,800 Points as IT and Banking Stocks Lead Rally
The BSE Sensex surged by 1,800 points and the NSE Nifty crossed the 22,700 mark, driven by strong buying in information‑technology and banking stocks. The rebound followed an earlier sell‑off triggered by geopolitical concerns and was amplified by short covering...
Fuel Crisis Pushes Indonesia Toward Perilous Policy Trade‑offs
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
Iran Refuses Pakistan Talks; Trump Demands More Time for Hormuz
Iran Unwilling To Meet US Negotiators In Pakistan, Talks At 'Dead End', As Trump Says 'A Little More Time' Needed To Open Hormuz: (ZeroHedge)
Latin America Offshore Drilling Gains Appeal as Iran War Reshapes Markets
Constellation Oil Services Holding SA, a major deep‑water rig supplier to Petrobras, has extended three offshore drilling contracts and is eyeing Brazil’s Equatorial Margin and Pelotas Basin. CEO Rodrigo Ribeiro called Brazil the world’s best offshore drilling market, citing high‑quality...
Qatar Rejects U.S. Push to Mediate Iran Cease‑fire
Qatar is resisting efforts by the U.S. and other regional countries to be a key mediator for a potential cease-fire deal with Iran, complicating efforts to find a way forward for the talks, officials familiar with the matter and mediators...
Chinese Government Bonds Stand Out as War Safe Haven
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab Upgrade: A Security-Driven Reconfiguration of Indo-Pacific Chip Competition
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will upgrade its Kumamoto, Japan fab to a 3‑nanometer process, targeting 15,000 12‑inch wafers per month and mass production by 2028. The $20 billion investment, backed by $4.62 billion in Japanese subsidies and equity from Sony, Denso...
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
The USMCA Review Is Shaping up to Be a Grind, Not a Grand Bargain
The six‑year USMCA review, due July 1, is shaping up to be a protracted negotiation likely spilling into 2027. Mexico is leaning into deeper U.S. integration while Canada hedges by diversifying trade partners, creating divergent bargaining positions. Washington is pressing for...
TSMC Confronts Supply Constraints and Geopolitical Risk, Shifting Market Dynamics
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which produces more than 90% of the world’s most advanced chips, is now wrestling with supply bottlenecks and heightened geopolitical risk. A naphtha shortage in Asia and the ongoing Iran‑related conflict in the Strait of Hormuz...
European Luxury Stocks Tumble 28% as Chinese Demand Weakens, LVMH Leads Slump
European luxury giants saw a sharp sell‑off, with LVMH plunging 28% in the first quarter, erasing tens of billions from Bernard Arnault's fortune. The slide reflects weakening Chinese demand and heightened risk aversion, prompting investors to question whether the correction...
Dubai Rolls Out $272 Million Stimulus to Bolster Companies and Jobs
Dubai's ruler Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced a Dh1 billion ($272 million) stimulus that postpones government fees and tourism charges, targeting hospitality, tourism and other private‑sector firms. The move is designed to preserve growth momentum and protect jobs...
TotalEnergies, Masdar Launch $2.2 Bn JV to Add 9 GW Renewables Across Asia
TotalEnergies and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar signed a $2.2 billion 50/50 joint venture to build 9 GW of on‑shore solar, wind and battery storage projects across nine Asian countries. The new entity will combine 3 GW of operating assets with a 6 GW pipeline slated...
Asian Stocks Rally 1.4%–2.7% as US Gains and Iran De‑Escalation Hopes Lift Markets
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.4% and South Korea's Kospi surged 2.7% after the S&P 500 rebounded, spurring a broader Asian equity rally. Traders cited fresh diplomatic signals between Iran and Oman on Hormuz traffic and a softer dollar as the...
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Global Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Flutterwave Secures Full Banking, Microfinance and Microlending Licences in Nigeria
Flutterwave has been granted a full banking licence, a micro‑finance bank (MFB) licence and a microlender licence by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The regulatory approvals let the payments giant accept deposits, issue loans and run end‑to‑end financial operations for...
China Challenges Iran at UN over Hormuz Closure
China, Europe and why Beijing took a swing at Iran over the Strait of Hormuz Beijing takes a stand at the United Nations at the closure of shipping lanes Despite all the blather about how China benefits from the conflict... https://t.co/dhDbWjo4ip via...
Taiwan Opposition Leader’s China Trip Is Fraught with Risk
Taiwan’s Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li‑wun will travel to mainland China from April 7‑12, marking the party’s first high‑level visit since 2016. The trip comes just weeks before a U.S.‑China summit between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, heightening concerns that Beijing...