Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Interview with Turkiye's Diplomacy 02.04.2026
In this episode of Turkey's Diplomacy, financial consultant Laurent Lecoe explains that the ongoing Iran war, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, is pushing the global economy into stagflation, with rising inflation and stagnant growth. He highlights how oil supply disruptions are hitting Asia and Europe hardest, while the U.S. is relatively insulated due to domestic production, and warns that soaring oil prices could trigger a risk‑off market environment across equities, bonds, and precious metals. Lecoe discusses government responses, such as South Korea's $68 billion stabilization package and fuel price caps, and notes that expanding sovereign debt worldwide will make fixed‑income assets unattractive. Finally, he warns that the long‑term fallout could resemble the 1970s stagflation, with the GCC and Europe facing the greatest economic pain.
Greece to Join MSCI Developed Markets in May 2027, Unlocking $300 Million Passive Flows
MSCI announced that Greece will be reclassified from emerging to developed markets in its May 2027 index review. The upgrade, hailed as a symbolic turning point in Greece’s post‑crisis recovery, is expected to generate about $300 million in net passive inflows,...
The Economic Impact of Mexico’s Autocratic Drift
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum suffered a rare legislative defeat in March, signaling waning support for her administration’s agenda. For a decade the country has enjoyed macro‑stable inflation, modest fiscal deficits and calm financial markets despite an ongoing centralization of power....
One Year on From Trump's 'Liberation Day,' Global Investors Are Rethinking American Exceptionalism
One year after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—34% on China, 20% on the EU and 46% on Vietnam—global markets have re‑evaluated exposure to the United States. The tariffs sparked a sharp sell‑off in U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar,...
Oil Rises and Asian Stocks Fall After Trump Says US Will Hit Iran Hard
Oil prices surged over 4% after President Donald Trump pledged to intensify U.S. strikes on Iran, pushing Brent crude to $106.16 a barrel and U.S. crude to $104.15. Asian equity markets reacted sharply, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.9% and South...
BP, ADNOC JV Takes FID on Harmattan Gas Project Off Egypt
Arcius Energy, the BP‑ADNOC joint venture, announced a final investment decision to develop the Harmattan gas field in Egypt’s El Burg Offshore concession. The project carries an estimated $500 million investment and aims to lift domestic natural‑gas output. Execution contracts have been...
U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, Signaling New Diplomatic Path
The United States removed all sanctions on Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez, formally acknowledging her as the country’s legitimate authority. The move follows the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife in January and could reshape oil exports and humanitarian...
Stopgap Oil Releases Fall Short as Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon
A coalition of 32 IEA members released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil, while the U.S. tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and lifted sanctions on Iranian crude. Despite these moves, Brent crude breached $100 per barrel and U.S. gasoline...
Trump’s Iran Threat Sends Oil 5% Higher, Triggers Sharp Drop in Asian Stock Markets
Donald Trump warned of intensified attacks on Iran, pushing Brent crude up 4.9% to $106.16 a barrel and U.S. crude 4% to $104.15. The rhetoric sparked a coordinated sell‑off across Asian equity indices, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk.
Telling the Truth About China’s Success
Yanis Varoufakis warns that the flare‑up in the Persian Gulf heightens the risk of a broader US‑China confrontation, making de‑escalation the top global priority. He argues that a pervasive myth—that China has cheated its way to prosperity—fuels mistrust and makes...
Sketches of the Middle East After the Iran War
The active phase of the Iran war appears to be drawing to a close, prompting analysts to step back from battlefield details and examine the emerging regional balance. While the future trajectory of Tehran's regime remains uncertain, the broader Iranian...
UK Offers Madagascar Near Tariff-Free Access to £3tn Market to Boost Supply Chain
The United Kingdom has announced a new trade framework that gives Madagascar near‑total, 99% tariff‑free access to its market. The scheme combines the Developing Countries Trading Scheme with the UK‑Eastern and Southern Africa Economic Partnership Agreement, simplifying rules of origin...
Trump’s Threat to Hit Iran 'Extremely Hard' Jolts Global Stocks, Bonds and Oil
President Donald Trump warned the United States would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks, prompting a sharp sell‑off across global markets. Asian equities reversed gains, with South Korea's KOSPI plunging 5.5% and European indices falling...
‘China Shock 2.0’ Is a False Narrative Born of Western Anxiety: Chinese Media
Chinese state‑run Economic Daily published front‑page editorials denying the existence of a so‑called “China shock 2.0.” The outlet argues that China’s export engine remains strong and that the real threat to the global economy is rising protectionism, not a slowdown in...
Iran Conflict Highlights Vietnam’s Energy Security and Foreign Policy Vulnerabilities
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, driving global oil and LNG prices to record highs and exposing Vietnam’s reliance on imported fuels. Since February, gasoline prices have jumped 50% and diesel 70%, prompting fuel shortages and longer...
Global Strategy Drives Disruptive, Long-Term Geopolitical Conflict
This was never a local conflict. What looks regional is built on years of preparation, alignment, and strategy. Different actors. Shared objectives. Long-term planning. And the focus isn’t just confrontation — it’s disruption at scale: energy flows, shipping routes, and global systems. That’s what makes this different. Not short. Not...
China's Solar Surge Powers the Next AI Race
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗔𝗜 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀. 𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘁𝘁𝘀. And right now, one country is moving faster than everyone else. China is not just “going green.” It’s building scale most economies can’t match. What stands out to me is...
Saudi Arabia Eyes African Critical Minerals
Saudi Arabia is pivoting from oil to critical minerals to meet Vision 2030 goals, targeting 30% electric‑vehicle sales and 50% renewable electricity by 2030. Africa, which holds about 30% of global critical‑mineral reserves, is becoming a key supply source. Riyadh has...
China Likely Remains Cautious on Iran Mediation, Not Catalyst
Will Beijing throw its weight behind Iran negotiations? That is a key question we tried to answer in our China Macro Watch report released yesterday. While markets and diplomats anticipate a more proactive Chinese role in mediating the Iran conflict,...
Erdoğan Warns War Extension Could Spark Regional Conflict
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned prolonging the war risks triggering a broader regional conflict, saying any new fronts would serve Israel’s “bloody strategy,” and vowed Turkey will act “without hesitation” to ensure peace. https://t.co/dy6Disl4Q7
As China’s Science Investment Soars, U.S. Cuts Spending Dramatically
China announced a major boost to its science and technology spending, pledging at least a 7% annual increase in R&D outlays over the next five years. The central government’s science budget will reach 426 billion yuan ($61.6 billion) this year, a 10%...
Iran Risk Unpriced Despite Trump's Stone Age Threat
Pretty simple, the fundamentals go like this: "Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Trump, last night. Me, on repeat: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In https://t.co/pIYOLN90wD
Macron Calls Military Reopening of Hormuz Unrealistic, Urges Iran Dialogue
French President Emmanuel Macron says it is "unrealistic" to think the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened through military means. "We must be able to reopen this strait because it’s strategic [...] but it can only be done in consultation with...
East Africa Crowds Out Businesses as Debt Costs Bite
East African economies are slipping toward a debt trap as governments replace concessional aid with costly commercial loans and Eurobonds, pushing debt‑service costs to record levels. In Kenya, roughly 68% of revenue now funds debt repayments, crowding out credit for...
Drone Attacks Force Unavoidable Russian Oil Output Cuts
Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say https://t.co/5XWsLO71R7
China Poised to Benefit From Iran War Dynamics
In the days after the Iran war started, Erica Downs and I wrote @ForeignPolicy about why despite large oil and imports through the strait, China could be a counterintuitive winner. This week’s @TheEconomist captures the dynamic well, far beyond...
Militias, Corrupt Officers Man 24 Roadblocks on Key DRC Trade Route
Twenty‑four roadblocks staffed by militias and corrupt officials line the Goli–Mahagi–Kisangani route, a vital segment of the Northern Corridor linking Uganda to eastern DRC. Unofficial fees of up to $300 per vehicle are inflating transport costs and delaying deliveries. The...
Caution Needed Before Declaring China Iran War’s Biggest Beneficiary
In this, some pushback against the view born of speculation or political prejudice that China is the biggest winner of the Iran war, innit? The args are warnings and poss serious but there is much to weigh b4 jumping to...
China Drives One‑Third of Global Growth Since 2000s
China has become a major engine of the global economy since joining the WTO in 2001, with its share of global production rising from 2% in 1995 to 16% in 2018 & as growing source of final demand. China accounted...
Weekly Outlook: Geopolitics, Energy Drive US Stock Sentiment (Mar 30‑Apr 3)
Analysts say the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices will dominate equity sentiment for the week of March 30‑April 3. A thin data calendar and mixed U.S. economic releases add uncertainty, prompting traders to focus on technical support levels and short‑term...
New Geopolitics & Markets Insight for Subscribers
April 2, 2026, 4:50 AM, website comment for subs on geopolitics and markets. Link in reply below 👇 https://t.co/tWw5e5VWPG
China Clamps Down on Consumer Lending, Forces Lower Rates
Interesting Caixin article on China’s intensifying crackdown on the consumer lending and loan-facilitation business, with regulators summoning major platforms for talks and pressing the industry to sharply curb borrowing costs. https://t.co/BIv3i5trGx
Ghana Unveils Binding Loans Act to Curb Borrowing and Boost Fiscal Discipline
Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson announced Ghana’s new Loans Act, a legal framework that will tie every public loan to high‑impact projects and set stricter borrowing limits. The move follows a $3 billion IMF programme that has already lowered debt...
China to Top CNY400 Bn R&D Spend by 2026
Yicai: "Beijing's expenditure on science and technology is expected to break through CNY400 billion (USD58 billion) for the first time in 2026, with a greater emphasis on basic research, as the country ramps up funding to drive innovation and strengthen...
China's EV Surge Cushions Potential Hormuz Oil Shutdown
China imports the most oil via the Strait of Hormuz but is also one of the best placed to weather its closure. EVs are part of that story. Five years ago China targeted 20% of new vehicles in 2025. They...
US‑Israel War on Iran Pushes Oil Past $100, Erases $120 Bn From UAE Markets
The escalating US‑Israel war on Iran has driven West Texas Intermediate above $100 a barrel and Brent past $115, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock indices have collectively shed roughly $120 bn in market value. The price spike stems from a...
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
India's Emissions Plan Spurs Grid and Battery Investments
India’s new emissions-reduction plans offer significant investment opportunities in sectors related to grid upgrades and storage batteries, according to one of the country’s largest climate-focused funds https://t.co/JLBiDWCCaC
Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway Faces Backlash over Amazon Impact, Analysis Flags 15 Protected Areas
The Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway, awarded to a Chinese firm in January 2026, has ignited fierce criticism after a joint study identified 15 protected natural areas and almost 2,000 communities at risk. Experts say the route threatens the Amazon’s biodiversity and...
From World War Trade to Domino Regionalism: The Emergent Global Trading Order
In April 2025 the United States unleashed sweeping tariffs and China responded with export controls, creating a “World War Trade” that shattered the post‑World‑II rules‑based system. While the US‑China clash intensified, the other 75 % of global trade—countries responsible for three‑quarters of...
Gulf War Triggers Asian Price, Debt, Scarcity Crisis
In this article, “how the Gulf’s war is becoming Asia’s crisis too,” The Economist magazine analyzes the three main transmission channels: “prices, debt and scarcity.” #economy #asia #middleeastwar #growth #inflation #debt @theeconomist
Malaysia’s Economy Expanded by 5.2% in 2025, Supported by Broad-Based Growth Across All Major Sectors
Malaysia's economy expanded 5.2% in 2025, slightly above the 5.1% pace of 2024, driven by a 5.5% rise in services, 4.5% manufacturing growth and a 12.2% construction surge, supporting a GDP of roughly $400 bn. Early 2026 data show the Industrial...
Jordan’s Regional Connectivity Begins in Riyadh
Jordan is positioning itself as a regional trade hub by leveraging deepening Saudi investment, which now exceeds $15 billion, and a series of bilateral agreements signed in Riyadh. Trade between the two countries grew 19% in the first half of 2025,...
Hormuz Closure Amplifies Global Trade, Inflation, Financial Strain
Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance Latest @UNCTAD report on Hormuz 1⃣Energy corridor halted: The Strait of Hormuz remains “practically closed,” disrupting a critical share of global oil and gas flows. 2⃣Trade losing momentum: Global merchandise trade is...
Indonesia Pushes Renewable Transition as Oil Spikes Above $100, Tightening Logistics Costs
Indonesia, a net oil importer of 1.5 million barrels per day, is urging faster renewable adoption after oil prices breached $100 per barrel, a shock that could add up to $3 billion to its fiscal deficit and pressure logistics costs. Policymakers argue...
Trump Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez
President Trump removes Delcy Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan government, from the U.S. sanctions list https://t.co/TUZyRVdQUV
IMF Flags Iran War as Asymmetric Global Shock; GCC Buffers Growth While Emerging Markets Brace
The IMF warned that the Iran war is delivering a global but asymmetric shock, bolstering Gulf Cooperation Council economies as a growth anchor while exposing emerging markets to heightened inflation and balance‑of‑payments stress. Malaysia’s central bank lifted its 2026 growth...
Iran Sees Conflict as Chance to Expel US Influence
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's position in the war: "Iran is seeing these events... as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia. To invert it completely, to remove the US... and its whole infrastructure of finance...
Iran Threatens Major US Companies in the Middle East Creating New Risk for Crypto
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that, starting April 1, it will target a list of U.S. multinationals operating in the Middle East, including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla, Boeing, JPMorgan, Oracle, Nvidia and others. Many of these firms form...
Trump’s Slip Could Derail Xi Meeting’s Trade Agenda
How will Trump’s “mistake” affect his meeting with Xi? What does it mean to the agenda, expectations, and outcomes? Starting with trade, supply chains, and logistics. Taiwan?