Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
From Theory to Reality: Evaluating the U.S.-Ukrainian Minerals Deal
The United States and Ukraine have launched a U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, injecting an initial $150 million to develop Ukraine’s critical mineral assets. The fund is governed by a six‑member board—three Americans and three Ukrainians—aiming to channel private and public capital into mining, processing and related infrastructure. While critics have dismissed the agreement as neocolonial, its joint‑control structure mirrors many of the strategic goals outlined in J.C. Ellis’s earlier proposal for shared access and economic benefit. The deal stops short of a broader multilateral framework but establishes a concrete partnership for mineral security.
Why Manufacturing Remains Indonesia’s Key Growth Driver, Accelerating Downstream...
Indonesia’s 2025‑2029 economic roadmap hinges on manufacturing, which posted a 5.3% growth rate in 2025—slightly above the nation’s 5.0% GDP expansion. The sector now accounts for 19.07% of GDP and over 80% of exports, employing more than 20 million workers. Government...
UK-Nigeria Economic Ties Deepening with Rising CBN Credibility
UK High Commissioner Jonny Baxter praised the Central Bank of Nigeria’s growing credibility and highlighted the United Kingdom’s position as Nigeria’s largest single source of foreign capital, accounting for roughly half of recent inflows. He noted that Nigeria’s macro‑economic reforms...
Balenciaga Expands Guangzhou Flagship to 572 Sqm, Doubling Size Under Piccioli
Balenciaga opened an upgraded 572‑square‑meter flagship in Guangzhou’s Taikoo Hui complex on March 27, 2026, nearly doubling the space first launched in 2022. The expansion, driven by creative director Pierpaolo Piccioli and CEO Luca de Meo’s growth push, signals a deeper bet on...
Positioning the Phl in Asia’s Growth Story
At the Boao Forum for Asia’s 25th conference, leaders reaffirmed Asia’s role as the world’s primary growth engine, with its share of global GDP projected to reach 49.7% in 2026. The Philippines, positioned at the heart of Southeast Asia, is...
Helios Towers to Expand Mobile Connectivity Across DRC
Helios Towers has secured a $110 million investment agreement with DRC’s ANAPI to expand its mobile tower infrastructure. The deal will fund new sites in urban and rural areas, improve network resilience, and incorporate sustainable energy and local skill programs. Helios,...
Iran Offers Ceasefire for Strait Access, US Demands Opening
The way out of this mess, according to our geopolitics guy: The TACO was trailed by yesterday's talk about leaving others to free up the strait. Trump's latest burp today hardens this somewhat when, in answer to his own claim that...
Helios Towers to Invest $110m on Telecoms Infrastructure in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Helios Towers announced a $110 million investment to expand telecom tower infrastructure in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The deal, signed with the government’s ANAPI agency, will fund new sites across urban and rural areas and improve energy resilience. Helios already...
China's Trade Reliance Makes Sea Lane Disruptions Catastrophic
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Attacks Persist in Iran and Across the Mideast as Trump Threatens Escalation
President Donald Trump’s statements on the Iran conflict have swung from pledging a quick exit to threatening to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Meanwhile, Iran has intensified missile and drone strikes...
Global Trade Thrives Despite US Tariffs, Economy Resilient
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
Markets Bet Big on a Quick End to the Iran War
President Trump signaled he may end U.S. strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, prompting a wave of market optimism. Brent crude briefly slipped below $100 a barrel, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures turned positive and 10‑year Treasury yields...
US Secures Rare Earths Supply as Part of $565mn Loan to Brazil Mining Group
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) approved a $565 million loan to Brazil’s Serra Verde, granting the United States off‑take rights to rare earths from the company’s Pela Ema mine. The agreement ensures that heavy rare earths, critical for magnets...
Iraqi Civilians Are Paying the Price of the Iran War
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is spilling into Iraq, where rockets and drones have struck near Baghdad and Erbil, disrupting daily life. Oil exports are faltering after Iranian attacks on tankers and a force‑majeure declaration on foreign‑operated fields, threatening the...
Economists, Business Warn Indonesia's Energy Crisis Response May Backfire
Indonesia’s government has rolled out emergency measures to curb a worsening energy crisis, including a push for remote work, reduced subsidies and scaling back free school meals to conserve fiscal resources. Economists and business groups warn that these austerity steps...
Russia Could Emerge as Global South's Partner Amid Iran War, Scholar Says
A Russian scholar argues that the US‑Israel war on Iran is threatening the Global South, especially as oil prices surge. He warns the conflict could normalize forceful interventions, destabilizing developing nations. Russia, he suggests, could step in as an alternative...
Iran War: What African Countries Can Do to Get Through the Crisis and Emerge in a Better Place
The US‑Israel war on Iran is destabilising global oil, gas, fertiliser and food markets and has triggered sharp depreciations of African currencies against the dollar. Rising interest rates and tighter foreign‑financing conditions are compounding debt pressures across the continent. Experts...
India’s Punjab Exporters Propose Barter Deal Between Basmati Rice and Iran’s Crude Oil to Offset War Losses
India’s Punjab Rice Millers Exporters Association has asked the government to negotiate a barter deal with Iran, swapping premium basmati rice for Iranian crude oil with payments in rupees. The proposal follows steep financial losses for exporters after the US‑Israel‑Iran...
PE-VC Exits Down 40 per Cent in FY26
Private equity and venture capital exits in India slumped 40% year‑over‑year, falling to $18.8 billion across 223 deals in FY26. Total PE‑VC funding also dipped 10% to $33.9 billion, with mega deals above $100 million shrinking in both count and value. AI attracted...
Oil Shocks Fade; Markets Typically Rebound Within Months
Military conflicts and oil shocks are nothing new. We’ve been through this many times. Yes, they create uncertainty and shake things up, but historically oil has come back down within a few months, and stocks often start moving higher not...
Can China Grow From Within?
China’s new 2026‑30 Five‑Year Plan pivots the economy toward a consumption‑led growth model, seeking to anchor expansion domestically amid rising geopolitical volatility. The strategy emphasizes expanding household demand and deepening capital‑market development to reduce reliance on external markets. While Chinese...
Nigeria Wraps up $3.1 Bn Banking Recapitalisation, Paving Way for Stronger Credit Markets
Nigeria’s Central Bank announced the conclusion of its two‑year banking recapitalisation, with banks injecting N4.61 trillion (about $3.1 billion) of fresh capital. The move meets higher minimum capital thresholds and is expected to deepen liquidity, improve risk‑taking capacity and attract more foreign...
Nigerian Naira Holds Near ₦1,385 per Dollar on Strong Autonomous Supply
The naira opened at ₦1,385.27 per dollar on April 1, with traders citing abundant autonomous supply and system liquidity exceeding ₦8 trillion ($5.8 bn). The stability comes despite a modest dip in gross reserves, underscoring the role of Nigeria’s oil earnings and...
Nigeria's Debt to Surge Past N155 Trillion After Senate OKs $6 Bn Loan
President Bola Tinubu’s request for a $6 billion foreign‑currency loan was approved by the Senate in under four hours, pushing Nigeria’s total sovereign debt to N155.1 trillion (about $111 billion). The borrowing, split between a $5 bn structured swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank...
When Bombs Replace Bridges: The Rise of Military Keynesianism
The episode examines the shift toward "military Keynesianism," where governments increasingly use defense spending to stimulate economic growth as traditional civilian investment loses its effectiveness. The host contrasts mainstream economic theory, which assumes equilibrium and smooth cycles, with the reality...
China’s 90% Model Threatens Global Industries
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
Beijing’s 2002 Strategy Exploited US’s War on Terror
Left: "Much of Beijing's current strategy toward the US was laid down in 2002, when the CCP concluded China faced an unprecedented 20-year 'period of strategic opportunity' [due to] the GWOT distracting US leaders." Right: Cover of this week's The Economist...
War with Iran Could Accelerate Africa’s Oil Revival
The escalating war with Iran is destabilizing Middle‑East oil supplies, prompting global buyers to seek alternatives. African basins—particularly offshore Namibia, Ghana, and Nigeria—are attracting heightened investor attention thanks to favorable geology and lower‑cost drilling technologies. New seismic imaging and digital‑oilfield...
Yuan Replaces Dollars for Iran Strait Transit, Signaling Currency Clash
Ships paying Iran for transit thru the Strait. In yuan. Not dollars. An indicator of a coming currency battle? And roiling supply chains and maritime?
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
U.S. Military Attacks on Iran Could End in 2–3 Weeks, Trump Says
President Donald Trump told the nation the U.S. could wrap up its Iran offensive within two to three weeks and urged oil‑dependent allies to assume responsibility for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. He expressed frustration that partners were not...
Saudi's 2025 Break‑even Oil Price Stays Near $100
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
US‑Israel Iran Conflict Boosts Chinese Exporters’ Global Market Share
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
Inflation Down Despite Oil Price Surge, Idul Fitri Demand Spike
Indonesia's annual consumer price index slowed to 3.48% in March, down from 4.76% in February, bringing inflation back into Bank Indonesia's 2.5% ± 1% target range. The decline reflects a base‑effect from last year's temporary electricity discount rather than sustained price easing....
Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
Korea Posts $25B March Trade Surplus on Chip Boom
Crazy March trade surplus for Korea ($25b a month, $300b annualized) Strong chip exports continued. And presumably a bunch of expected tankers didn't arrive so fuel demand was met out of inventory 1/2 https://t.co/NGcasg9i4v
Nigeria Sharpening Its Growth Strategy Through Policy Alignment and Power-Sector Reform
Nigeria’s leadership is aligning fiscal and monetary policy to stabilise the macroeconomy, a move that has already lowered inflation while sustaining growth. Special Adviser Sanyade Okoli stresses that coordinated policy is essential for attracting investment and creating jobs. The government...
U.S. Must Rethink Oil‑Security Ties with Diversifying Gulf States
Great new @ForeignAffairs essay by @ColumbiaUEnergy’s @ProfessorKaren about how post-war, the historic “oil for security” relationship is no longer tenable, & US needs to update its approach to Gulf states that are rapidly diversifying their economies https://t.co/Nmszm8a5bu
China Poised to Weather Hormuz Oil Shutdown
How China can survive without the Strait of Hormuz The world’s largest importer of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is, paradoxically, also one of the best placed to weather the waterway’s closure. https://t.co/YczOlt8T4v
Hong Kong Investment Chief Joins Global Board in First for Chinese Sovereign Funds
Clara Chan Ka‑chai, chief executive of Hong Kong Investment Corporation (HKIC), has been appointed to the board of FCLTGlobal, marking the first Chinese sovereign wealth fund representation on the nonprofit’s 19‑member board. FCLTGlobal, founded in 2016, unites leading long‑term investors...
China Poised to Capture Market as Iran War Reshapes Trade
Iran war gives Chinese exporters chance to grab global market share Ample oil reserves and renewables growth make manufacturing sector more resilient than rivals https://t.co/Zm287YiQYa via @ft
Qiushi Reaffirms China’s Trade-Rebalance Push, Calls Old Export-Led Growth ‘Unsustainable’
China’s leading Communist Party journal Qiushi reiterated the nation’s trade‑rebalancing agenda, warning that the traditional export‑driven growth model is no longer viable. The editorial cites rising global protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and a record‑high trade surplus as catalysts for a pivot...
Why ‘Billions to Trillions’ Has Failed to Attract Investment in Infrastructure
New research estimates the median social rate of return to building a kilometre of two‑lane highway in emerging markets at 55%, with a mean of 97%, far outpacing the roughly 7% private‑capital return in the United States. Despite this eight‑to‑fourteen‑fold...
Tisza Needs Supermajority Victory in Hungarian Elections to Unlock EU Frozen Funds
Hungary’s opposition Tisza party must secure a two‑thirds parliamentary supermajority in the April 12 election to reverse laws that have frozen roughly €18 bn ($19.44 bn) of EU funding. While polls show Tisza leading, merely ousting Prime Minister Viktor Orban will not suffice;...
The Iran War Hurts China Less than Its Rivals but More than It Admits
The article argues that the war in Iran harms China’s economy, but not as severely as its regional rivals, while China publicly understates the impact. It notes that Chinese officials continue to portray Beijing as a stabilizing force despite disruptions...
AfDB Says Africa’s Growth Risks Were Tilted to Downside Even Before Iran Conflict
The African Development Bank warns that Africa’s growth outlook was already fragile before the Iran‑Israel conflict and could slip further. Chief economist Kevin Urama estimates a 0.2‑percentage‑point slowdown if the war ends within three months, rising to a 1.5‑point decline...
Power Plants, Politics and Profitability: PWM Tea Break
In PWM’s latest Tea Break, a senior executive discusses her investments in energy and water companies across Brazil and the Philippines, emphasizing confidence in developing economies. She notes that emerging markets are projected to generate the majority of global GDP...
Asia Daily: April 1, 2026
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said no cabinet officials will travel to Beijing before the expected mid‑May Trump‑Xi summit, raising doubts about traditional pre‑meeting talks. A European Parliament delegation made its first visit to China in eight years, focusing on...
Can a Country Get Too Rich?
Norway’s new Edvard Munch Museum in Oslo, a 13‑storey slab of recycled aluminium and glass, opened in 2021 after a ten‑year delay and a $350 million price tag that ballooned by $200 million. The project, financed by the nation’s deep sovereign wealth...