Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Will Conflict in the Middle East Boost China’s Renewable Energy Sector?
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war has driven Brent crude to its highest level since 2022, rattling global markets. Despite a 5% quarterly dip in the Hang Seng, China’s large strategic crude reserves and aggressive renewable‑energy rollout keep its growth outlook intact. Renewable‑energy stocks rallied, with the CSI Green Electricity Index up 6% and solar firm GCL up 48% since the conflict began. EVs now represent 51% of new car sales, underscoring China’s shift toward clean power.
Rising Rates and Concentration Risk Drive Market Pullback
With the headlines lurching from one end to another, it’s not getting any easier to find clarity on how or when the conflict in the Middle East will end or what damage the ongoing Hormuz bottleneck will inflict on the...
UAE Bans Iranian Nationals From Entering Dubai Airport
Official notice from FlyDubai: the UAE has banned Iranian nationals from entering or even transiting through Dubai International Airport, effective immediately This hits Iranian passport holders hard. including people with valid UAE residency visas of any kind and those with visit/tourist...
Japan to Create Special Cell to Push FDI Into India
Japan’s Foreign Ministry is establishing a dedicated centre to streamline Japanese investment into India, targeting ¥10 trillion (about $62.6 billion) in private‑sector capital by 2035. The unit will help firms navigate India’s fragmented state regulations, opaque law enforcement, and complex tax regime...
Iran and Russia Profit as Oil Prices Surge Amid War
A month into this war: Iran is still exporting oil & to more customers Iran is making more money for its oil because prices are up Iran has effectively installed a tollbooth to enter and exit the Persian Gulf Russia is making more...
A Month Into the Conflict: What Has Actually Changed?
A month after the Iran conflict escalated, oil prices jumped from $65 to $98 per barrel, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise its inflation outlook. Treasury yields rose 50 basis points in three weeks, eroding bonds' safe‑haven status. Market expectations...
Iran War Triggers Global Inflation Spike and Market Turbulence
The International Monetary Fund says the Iran war is creating a global, asymmetric shock that is pushing oil prices to record highs, slowing growth and stoking inflation expectations. European consumer confidence has slumped and traders across the world report wider...
Philippines External Position Improves as Net Liability Narrows in 2025
The Philippines narrowed its net external liability to $50.8 billion, or 10.4% of GDP, by the end of 2025, improving from $52.1 billion three months earlier. External assets grew 1% quarter‑on‑quarter, outpacing a 0.4% rise in liabilities, driven by higher reserve assets...
India's First Iranian Oil Cargo Since 2019 Headed to Gujarat Coast
India is set to receive its first Iranian crude cargo since 2019, with the Aframax tanker Ping Shun carrying about 600,000 barrels to Vadinar, Gujarat. The shipment follows a U.S. 30‑day waiver allowing Iranian oil sales on the water amid the...
Middle East Conflict Lifting PPA Valuations, Says Pexapark
Swiss analytics firm Pexapark reports that recent LNG strikes in the Middle East are pushing up long‑term power purchase agreement (PPA) valuations across Europe. The conflict creates a structural supply‑side risk that tightens medium‑term fundamentals, especially in markets with limited...
Novastar Ventures Closes $147 Million Third Fund to Drive Pan-African Ambitions
Novastar Ventures closed its third fund, the Africa People and Planet Fund III, at $147 million, targeting climate‑focused and impact‑driven startups across Africa. Japanese investors such as SBI Holdings, SMBC, Mitsubishi and JICA joined returning partners like Norfund and British International Investment....
EU Legislators Visit China to Ease Strained Relations
EU legislators visited China for the first time in eight years, aiming to steady relations strained by trade imbalances, human‑rights disputes and Beijing's ties to Russia. The delegation, responsible for market and consumer protection, will discuss digital trade, e‑commerce fairness...
China Denies Energy Bans, Neighbors Left Out
From Belt and Road to belt tightening: China's neighbours get cold shoulder on energy But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses...
Japan and South Korea’s Energy Hedge
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a systemic shock to global energy flows, prompting Japan and South Korea to deepen bilateral cooperation on LNG security. Both nations’ top energy firms, KOGAS and JERA, signed an MOU enabling...
What Happens to Latin America if the Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed?
The author evaluates three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran conflict, focusing on the most likely outcome: prolonged reduced traffic. A sustained closure would tighten global oil and gas supplies, pushing prices higher and triggering inflation across...
China’s Economy Feels the Iran War Shock
The recent U.S.-Israel strike on Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 40‑50% of China’s seaborne oil imports and adding pressure to an economy already in a three‑year deflationary slump. Beijing’s four‑month oil stockpile and a dual‑track sourcing...
Canada’s Trade Deal With Mercosur Alliance Could Revamp Western Hemisphere Trade
Canada is close to sealing a free‑trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, potentially by September 2026. The deal would connect Canada with five South American economies—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay—representing 282 million people and about $3 trillion in GDP. In 2024,...
Hegseth Acknowledges China and Russia Could Be Supporting Iran as U.S. Threatens Intensified Strikes Against "New Regime"
The United States launched a massive strike on Iran’s Isfahan ammunition depot, using 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs that caused secondary explosions. Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that China and Russia are providing varying levels of support to Tehran’s war effort, though...
RBI Defers Bank Exposure Rules as Indian Analysts Boost Targets; PyroGenesis Misses 2025 Forecast
India's central bank postponed new capital market exposure guidelines for banks to July, prompting relief for lenders. Meanwhile, Nuvama lifted Welspun Corp's price target 33% and sees a 58% upside for Motherson Sumi Wiring. In Canada, PyroGenesis Inc. disclosed a...
Bridging Continents: The Future of Middle East-Africa Trade Alliances
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is deepening trade alliances with African nations, creating a new South‑South growth corridor. GCC countries bring abundant capital, sovereign wealth funds, and advanced logistics, while Africa offers natural resources, arable land, renewable energy potential and...
China Lifts QDII Overseas Investment Quota by $5.3 Bn, Highest Since 2021
China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange raised the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quota to $176.17 bn, a $5.3 bn increase and the largest since 2021. The move aims to satisfy growing domestic demand for offshore assets and signals a broader opening...
Laos - Vietnam Railway Gets Green Light
The Lao National Assembly approved the first phase of a 562‑km standard‑gauge railway linking Vientiane with Vietnam’s Vung Ang deep‑water port. Phase 1A, a 147‑km stretch from the Thai border to the Laos‑Vietnam frontier, will be built under a 50‑year build‑operate‑transfer...
Ramaphosa Launches R2 Trillion Investment Drive
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced the launch of a second investment mobilisation drive targeting roughly $111 billion (R2 trillion) over the next five years. The South African Investment Conference has already secured about $49 billion (R889 billion) for 31 projects, promising 230,000 permanent jobs. A...
Oil Prices Rocket; Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker; Some Hormuz Transits Resumes | Rapid Read 31 Mar 2026
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
Why African Cities Are Central to Global Development
By 2050, an estimated 900 million people will be added to African cities, effectively doubling the continent’s urban population. The region’s rapid growth—averaging 3.5‑4% per year—will occur at per‑capita incomes of only $2,000‑$2,500, providing a far smaller tax base than historic...
EU-India FTA Boosts Indian Aluminium, CBAM Still Caps Gains
The EU-India FTA may help Indian aluminium exports, but CBAM still limits the real upside. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-could-improve-indian.html
China’s Iranian Oil Purchases Become Risky, Costly, Contested
China can still buy Iranian oil, but every barrel now comes with higher military risk, higher shipping costs, and the threat of sanctions or interdiction. What was once a quiet $8 to $12 discount trade is now a fragile, contested...
Taiwan: Powering Ahead
Taiwan posted a record 7.71% GDP growth in 2025, outpacing IMF and ADB forecasts. The island’s economy is powered by a booming semiconductor and AI sector, which lifted exports by 35% and pushed the TAIEX above a $32 billion valuation. Foreign...
Foreign Central Banks Slash Treasury Holdings to 2012 Low
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
China Ships Diesel to Southeast Asia Despite Curbs
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what appears to be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month https://t.co/Ho2QuntmBc
Country Report: Turkey’s Booming Numbers
Turkey entered 2026 with a surge in market optimism, as the BIST 100 reached a record 13,867 points and the central bank trimmed its policy rate by 100 basis points to 37%. The government raised $3.5 billion through eurobond issuances, while...
Yuan's Global Reserve Share Declines Over Five Years
Well, there are a lot of meanings of global reserves currency that go beyond the currency held in formal foreign exchange reserves. But the yuan's share of reserves has actually slipped over the last 5 years 1/2 https://t.co/h07pcXMaYn
Iran Still Controls Hormuz, Selectively Filtering Tankers
"The regime has lost control" is wrong @EYakoby Iran is allowing more ships through Hormuz selectively It's sorting tankers by friends who pass for free, neutral parties that pay, and enemies that don't pass There may be a tactical uptick in flows,...
IHC Invests $1 Billion for Majority Stake in India's Sammaan Capital
International Holding Company (IHC) has received regulatory clearance to buy a 41.5% stake in Sammaan Capital Limited for roughly $1 billion. The deal, executed in stages, will make IHC a promoter with board control, signaling a major private‑equity‑style entry into India's...
Trump Claims Hormuz Will Reopen Automatically After U.S. Withdrawal
JUST IN: President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “automatically” once the U.S. exits
India's Economy Hit Hard by Shipping and Energy Woes
JUST IN: India’s economy is facing “considerable downside” due to shipping disruptions and surging energy costs
Natura Overhauls Board, Adds Advisory Council as It Launches New Growth Cycle
Natura announced a sweeping governance overhaul, installing Alessandro Carlucci as chairman, forming a new advisory board led by its founders, and confirming Advent International’s intent to buy an 8%‑10% minority stake. The changes are designed to accelerate a new expansion...
US VCs Embed in Chinese Labs, Courting Scientists Early
U.S. venture capital firms are no longer waiting for Chinese biotech assets to surface before investing in them — they’re moving upstream, embedding themselves inside labs and courting scientists before they publish their research https://t.co/7kOlGh0sbu
China Greets EU Lawmakers, Aims to Mend Strained Ties
China welcomes EU lawmakers' first visit in 8 years as chance to steady strained ties https://t.co/MvadiOAS0R
S&P Global Flags New Wave of Emerging‑Market Credit Downgrades Amid Middle East Conflict
S&P Global warned that sovereigns in emerging markets are entering a new credit‑downgrade era as the Middle East war pushes commodity prices higher and tightens financing conditions. The agency says the shock threatens fiscal balances in import‑dependent economies such as...
US Blocks Chinese EVs From Canada Despite Tariff Cut
US won’t allow Chinese EVs from Canada to enter its market, President Donald Trump’s ambassador in Ottawa said, after a January deal in which Prime Minister Mark Carney lowered tariffs on those vehicles Huh?https://t.co/vBvBuGKGqK
China Poised to Lead as US Credibility Erodes
A blueprint for Chinese global leadership With the US destroying its own credibility, the opportunity is Beijing’s for the taking https://t.co/AZmq1LQ7j4 via @ft
US Bunker‑buster Strikes Hit Iranian Nuclear Site as Drone Hits Oil Tanker, Crude Prices Jump
The United States launched 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs on an Isfahan ammunition depot linked to Iran’s enriched uranium program, while an Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti‑owned Al Salmi tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose...
EU Warns Prolonged Energy Market Disruption From Iran War
EU Tells Members to Prepare for 'Prolonged Disruption' to Energy Markets From Iran War https://t.co/oPLV3B8xsa
Foreign Central Banks Cut UST Holdings to 2012 Low
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
Alstom Wins €700 Million Systems Contract in AMECA, Boosting B2B Infrastructure Revenue
Alstom announced it has secured a €700 million systems contract in the AMECA region, accounting for roughly 30% of a $2.75 billion total project. The order, recorded in Q4 of fiscal year 2025/2026, follows a 2.46% dip in Alstom’s share price on...
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
Ukraine Drone Strike Shows New Threat to Russian Oil Exports
The global energy trade has been taking hit after hit, and things might be getting worse. Ukraine launched a large drone attack on oil export facilities in the Baltic, proving they can disrupt Russian exports. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Tp92ahyVzj https://t.co/Zk1DX6pw9v
Pakistan, China Foreign Ministers Meet Amid US‑Iran Deal Rumors
The Pakistani and Chinese foreign affairs ministers have met today in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. The meeting comes as **rumours** abound that Beijing could play a role as "guarantor" of any US-Iran deal.
Chinese Firms Shift to Vietnam, yet Overall Impact Remains Modest
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M