Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Uber Commits R5-Billion to South Africa Amid Licensing Woes
Uber pledged roughly $260 million (R5 billion) for South Africa over three years, mixing existing spend with new funds for electric‑vehicle fleets, charging infrastructure, merchant hardware and township‑focused Uber Eats. The announcement, made at the South African Investment Conference, is timed to bolster Uber’s lobbying for clearer e‑hailing licensing under the 2025 National Land Transport Amendment Act. While Uber’s platform licence remains pending, the company argues the investment demonstrates its economic contribution and seeks collaborative regulation. Uber remains optimistic about growth in South Africa and the broader sub‑Saharan market.
From Belt and Road to Belt Tightening: China's Neighbours Get Cold Shoulder on Energy
China has imposed broad bans on fertilizer and fuel exports, citing domestic energy security concerns, while refusing to acknowledge the restrictions publicly. Southeast Asian nations—including Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Australia—are pressing Beijing to honor existing contracts and keep...
Securing Asean’s Food Resilience Amid the Middle East Conflict
The ongoing Middle East conflict threatens ASEAN’s food security by jeopardizing both fertilizer imports and the LNG supplies that power nitrogen‑based fertilizers. ASEAN relies on 82% of its fertilizer imports from outside the region, with Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar especially...
Malaysia Raises 2026 Growth Forecast Despite Iran War Risks
Malaysia’s central bank has raised its 2026 growth projection to a 4‑5% range, up from the government’s previous 4‑4.5% target, citing stronger‑than‑expected momentum in late 2025 and resilient domestic demand. The outlook incorporates risks from the Iran‑related oil price surge,...
Japanese Firms Back VC Fund Targeting African Startups
Japanese conglomerates Mitsubishi Corp., Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., and Toyota Ventures LLC have pledged $147 million to a new Africa‑focused venture capital fund managed by Novastar Ventures. The fund also attracted capital from SBI Holdings, Mitsui OSK Lines, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency....
Colombia Highlights Common History in Africa Push
Colombia’s Afro‑descendant vice‑president Francia Márquez is spearheading a diplomatic outreach to Africa, highlighting shared heritage and seeking deeper economic ties. Trade between Colombia and the continent, though modest, has risen sharply – exports to Africa grew 16% annually from 2001‑2021...
Southeast Asia Braces for Fertilizer Shortages as Prices Spike on Iran War
Southeast Asian nations are confronting looming fertilizer shortages as global prices have surged sharply following the outbreak of war in Iran. The region relies on more than three‑quarters of its nitrogen‑based fertilizers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it...
Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Restrictions, AI Emerges as Key Driver of Global Trade Growth: McKinsey
Artificial intelligence is reshaping global commerce, with AI‑related hardware shipments surging nearly 40% in 2025 and accounting for roughly a third of worldwide trade growth. The United States emerged as the dominant demand hub, adding about half of all new...
Danantara’s ‘Impact Investing’ Is Really Just State Capitalism
Indonesia’s new sovereign fund, Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara), is marketed as an impact‑investing vehicle but operates as state‑directed capital. The fund is tightly woven into the government’s industrial strategy, aiming to reverse premature deindustrialisation as manufacturing’s GDP share slips to...
Ukraine Among Riskiest Markets as Equity Risk Premium Nears 20%
Ukraine’s equity risk premium has surged to roughly 19.8%, edging close to the 20% mark, making it one of the world’s most hazardous investment arenas. By contrast, mature markets such as Canada, Germany and Singapore sit near a 4‑5% premium,...
Mixed Inflation Trends Worldwide; India Trims Deficit, Growth Accelerates
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.32% for second session, as Powell noted long-term inflation expectations appear in check. ⦿ RBA minutes: Oil near USD 100/barrel could raise headline CPI to 5% in June quarter, with inflation...
Oil-Thirsty Asian Nations Seek Russian Crude as Iran War Strains Supplies
Asian nations are scrambling for Russian crude as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has cut roughly one‑fifth of global oil supply, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States temporarily eased sanctions on Russian shipments, first for India and...
Piyush Goyal Discusses Early Implementation of India-EU FTA with European Parliament Delegation
Union Minister Piyush Goyal met a European Parliament delegation in New Delhi to discuss accelerating the India‑EU Free Trade Agreement, which was concluded in January 2026 and is expected to be ratified by early 2027. The FTA targets $300 billion in...
Geopolitical Endgame and Stagflation
Capital Flows' new report warns that post‑COVID markets have entered a high‑volatility macro regime driven by intensifying U.S.–China geopolitical friction. The analysis links the recent S&P 500 pullback to broader risk flows and explains why the dollar now mirrors these dynamics....
Ajaokuta’s Uncertain Future: Nigeria’s Steel Ambition Amid UK Deal
Nigeria’s government has signed a roughly $950 million export‑finance pact with the United Kingdom to upgrade Lagos’s main seaports, including a $89 million contract for British Steel to supply 120,000 tonnes of steel billets. While the deal promises faster cargo handling and potential...
Reopening Hormuz Is ‘Easier Said Than Done,’ Starmer Says
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz for commercial traffic will be challenging, emphasizing the need for de‑escalation before safe navigation can resume. He hosted senior military officials and executives from Lloyd’s, Goldman Sachs, HSBC,...
India’s Real Estate PE Inflows Jump 59% to $6.7 Billion in 2025; Office, Data Centres Lead: Savills India
India’s real‑estate private‑equity inflows surged 59% in 2025, reaching $6.7 billion, driven by strong GDP growth and easing monetary conditions. Office assets led the market with $2.4 billion, while data centres and residential properties also saw sizable allocations. Foreign investors contributed roughly...
India’s Governing Trilemma and the Paradox of Economic Nationalism
India faces a governing trilemma—democracy, rapid development, and civilizational nationalism—that it cannot satisfy simultaneously. Since 2014, protectionist economic nationalism has limited growth to 5‑6% despite the need for 9‑10% expansion. The paper argues this equilibrium of democracy plus civilizationalism yields...
Traveling East Coast, Open to China Economy Discussions
Dear friends, I will be in DC, NYC, Boston, and Toronto from Apr 14–22. While China has taken a back seat amid the Middle East focus, that may change in H2 if Beijing's policy pivots accelerate. If you’d be interested in meeting...
Vietnam LNG Project Pivots to Renewables Amid Price Surge
LNG DEMAND DESTRUCTION ALERT 🇻🇳🚨 A proposed Vietnam LNG power project is asking the government to switch to a renewables+battery plant, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict Vietnam was expected to be a high-growth LNG importer https://t.co/ac6gBNmCDr
Foreign Direct Investments Into Ho Chi Minh City Grow by over 200% in Q1 2026
Foreign direct investment into Ho Chi Minh City surged to nearly $2.9 bn in Q1 2026, a rise of more than 200% compared with the same quarter last year. When measured against the city alone, the increase approaches 480%. Exports for the...
Iran Sets Hormuz Toll, Bans US, Israeli Vessels
Iran’s parliament approved a formal toll and access regime for the Strait of Hormuz but bars vessels linked to the US, Israel and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran from passage. https://t.co/c28zaLYYtE
China Unlikely to Share Real Food or Energy Aid
"China may offer some ceremonial assistance, but it's highly unlikely, if not wholly improbable, that it will share any substantive amount of its food, energy, or other reserves with other countries," Eric Olander, co-founder, China-Global South Project.
Pakistan Faces $1‑4 Billion Remittance Hit as Gulf Tensions Threaten Labor Flow
A new study by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics warns that ongoing Middle East conflict could prevent half a million Pakistani workers from going abroad and trigger a similar number to return home, slashing remittance inflows by $1‑4 bn. The...
Iran Attacks Kuwaiti Oil Tanker in Dubai Port
Iran has hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and starting a fire on board, state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said https://t.co/z0pPgEwdwx
India Shifts Fertilizer Imports to Russia, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India is one of the largest importers of fertilizers sourced in the Gulf. Now, India has pivoted towards Russia. It is locking in long-term deals, to cut its reliance from the Gulf. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING...
Hong Kong IPO Revival Stalls as Regulators and Market Turbulence Raise Stakes for Big Deals
Hong Kong's IPO market, which raised nearly $14 bn in the first quarter – its best since 2021 – is now confronting regulatory warnings, a shortage of deal‑banking staff and Beijing's new restrictions on Chinese listings, dampening investor appetite and putting...
Nine India‑bound Energy Ships Stuck at Hormuz
🇮🇳India: 9 India-bound energy vessels — carrying crude oil, LNG, and LPG — remain stranded at or near the Strait of Hormuz, unable to transit https://t.co/IzlRQxYqGH
China PMIs Remain Resilient, Non‑Manufacturing Returns to Growth
China PMIs Signal Resilience as Mideast War Raises Uncertainty—Nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both service and construction activity, also bounced back to growth territory https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF https://t.co/JJM08eJIFF
Nigeria Targets 7% GDP Growth, Flags $14 Bn Annual Infrastructure Gap
Finance Minister Olawale Edun said Nigeria will aim for 7% annual GDP growth and needs roughly $14 bn each year to close its infrastructure deficit. The pledge, backed by the Islamic Development Bank’s $2.4 bn support, is tied to broader reforms in...
India Tops China in Population, China Still Richer per Capita
India recently pulled ahead of China in population, surpassing 1.4 BILLION people. But, when it comes to income per person, China continues to outpace India. https://t.co/eKcw6L1crT
China’s Demand Has Stalled, Not Driven Global Growth
I am a big fan of Chartbook and the collected works of Tooze -- but there is no way to look at China over the last 6 years and conclude that it has been a source of demand for the...
Global Economic Chokepoints Grow at Cost of Resilience- #CapitalMarkets #Finance
Michael Spence warns that the global economy is riddled with single‑point chokepoints, from the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca to the Suez and Panama canals. Concentrated supply chains—such as Japan’s micro‑controller firms, the ASML‑TSMC‑Samsung semiconductor trio, and China’s rare‑earth dominance—have...
Air Freight Disruption Drives Surge in India-US Cargo Rates
Air freight rates from India to the United States have jumped 200‑350% since the third Gulf war began on February 28, driven primarily by severe capacity shortages. Gulf hubs such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have lost roughly 79% of cargo capacity,...
How Pakistan Became a Major Player in Peace Negotiations Between the U.S. and Iran
Pakistan’s military, led by Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has positioned the country as a broker in the U.S.-Iran war, offering to host talks in Islamabad and relaying President Donald Trump’s demands. The partnership deepened after the May 2025...
Pundits Fret over Oil Prices as War Widens
Houthi rebels have entered the Middle East war, raising concerns over oil supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $116.75 per barrel and WTI topped $100 as the rebels threatened to close the Bab al‑Mandab strait, which handles about 6 million barrels...
China Spillovers
China’s slowdown generates both supply‑side and demand‑side shocks that ripple through global production networks. Recent IMF‑affiliated research finds that a negative Chinese supply shock cuts partner‑country GDP by about 0.15 % over two years, while demand shocks produce a similar but...
The Emerging Franco-German Consensus on China
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s February 2026 visit to China signaled a sharp turn in Berlin’s China policy, bringing it in line with France’s more confrontational stance. Over the past three years Germany has grown wary of Chinese competition in the auto...
KMT Chairwoman to Visit China; Li Qiang on Xiong'an; March Politburo Meeting; Beijing Bans Drones; WDO, SAMR on Involution
KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li‑wen will lead a delegation to Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing from April 7‑12, with expectations of a meeting with President Xi Jinping. The visit aims to ease cross‑strait tensions, though its reception within the KMT remains uncertain. On March 27...
Kharg Island: What Role Does It Play in Iran’s Economy?
The episode explains that Kharg Island is Iran’s primary oil export hub, handling over 90% of the country’s crude shipments—about 1.7 million barrels a day, or roughly 1.5% of global supply. Experts Humayun Falak Shahi (Kpler) and Dr. Anahita Motazad‑Rad (LSE)...
Special Forces Grounding Diplomacy, Threatening Hormuz Oil Flow
While it’s possible that Iran’s enriched uranium could be secured by a diplomatic deal, most recent discussions have involved special forces’ boots on the ground And boots on the ground is going to seriously complicate efforts to reopen to Strait of...
War in Middle East Drives Inflation and Slower Growth
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Strait of Hormuz Blockade Cuts 28 Mt LNG, Drives Asian Power Generators Back to Coal
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 28 million tonnes of Middle‑Eastern LNG from the market, forcing major Asian economies to react by re‑activating coal‑fired power. The shift threatens industrial output, fuels price spikes and could stall regional...
Hormuz Closure Sparks Global Energy Crisis Amid Ukraine Strikes
The world is in an energy crisis as Hormuz is closed. Europe and Asia are running out of oil and gas. Meanwhile Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure using EU and U.S. funded weapons. What a retarded timeline.
Bank of England Joins Imbalance Club as Asia Surplus Swells
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Fintech Firms Scramble for Banking and Payment Licences as Nigeria's New Vision Reshapes Competition
Nigeria’s central bank unveiled a Payments System Vision at the Africa Capital Forum, prompting fintechs to rush for banking and payment licences. The move coincides with $706.84 million of foreign capital entering the country’s banking recapitalisation, underscoring the high stakes for...
America Divided on Taiwan: Elite Consensus Questioned
Ryan Hass On Taiwan: Is America dividing on Taiwan — And implications for Taiwan Is the "elite consensus" accurate? https://t.co/DyOQZXZLmE
Europe Needs a 21st-Century Containment Strategy Toward Russia
Europe is debating whether to resume diplomatic talks with Russia as several EU capitals, notably France, Germany and Belgium, signal openness to engagement. At the same time, NATO is reshaping its command and burden‑sharing model, urging European allies to assume...
The Guardian View on Trump’s Iran War: Escalation without End | Editorial
The Guardian editorial warns that Donald Trump’s fifth week of war against Iran lacks a coherent strategy, with U.S. strikes and Iranian missile attacks creating a stalemate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices above $80...
India Must Pursue Value-Driven Critical Minerals Diplomacy in Africa
The recent Strait of Hormuz disruption highlighted India’s vulnerability to energy chokepoints and underscored the need for a resilient critical‑minerals supply chain. A forthcoming CSEP paper proposes a value‑driven diplomacy with Africa, focusing on Zambia, Zimbabwe and Tanzania to secure...