Securing Asean’s Food Resilience Amid the Middle East Conflict

Why It Matters

Disruptions to fertilizer and energy inputs risk a sharp rise in food prices and reduced crop yields, undermining regional stability and economic growth. Policymakers must act now to safeguard supply chains and protect vulnerable populations.

Key Takeaways

• ASEAN imports 82% of fertilizers, heavy Middle East reliance
• Thailand and Cambodia face immediate import disruption risk
• LNG shortages could raise urea prices across Southeast Asia
• Regional fertilizer stockpiles and diversified LNG sources recommended
• Crop planting windows amplify impact of fertilizer supply shocks

Pulse Analysis

The Middle East’s role as a hub for LNG, LPG, crude oil and, crucially, fertilizer shipments creates an energy‑fertilizer nexus that underpins Southeast Asian agriculture. With roughly a third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passing through the Hormuz Strait, any escalation in the Iran‑Israel conflict can instantly choke the flow of urea and other nitrogen inputs. ASEAN’s heavy reliance on external sources—82% of its fertilizer imports—means that even short‑term disruptions translate into immediate price spikes and supply shortages for farmers across the region.

The first wave of risk centers on fertilizer import interruptions. Countries such as Thailand (71% of urea imports) and Cambodia, which lack domestic production, face near‑total exposure. The timing compounds the threat: March and April are critical planting windows for rice, maize, soybeans and sugarcane. A supply shock during these months forces growers to cut application rates or delay planting, directly eroding yields. Meanwhile, nations with modest domestic capacity—Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand—can only meet a fraction of their fertilizer demand, leaving them vulnerable to both price volatility and reduced output.

Mitigating these intertwined threats requires coordinated policy action. Building regional fertilizer stockpiles, expanding the ASEAN‑Plus‑Three Food Security Information System to track input inventories, and diversifying LNG sources away from Qatar toward Australia, the United States and intra‑ASEAN exporters are essential steps. Strengthening local fertilizer manufacturing and integrating it into the broader Local Resource‑Based Regional Food Reserve framework will enhance resilience against future geopolitical shocks, safeguard staple‑crop production, and stabilize food prices for the region’s growing populations.