Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
‘Malaysia Won’t Be Lectured’: Singapore’s Refusal to Negotiate over Hormuz Creates Waves
Singapore announced it will not seek a diplomatic appeal to Iran for access to the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that free transit through the waterway is a right for all shipping nations. The stance sparked sharp criticism from Malaysian lawmakers, who accused Singapore of lecturing Malaysia on maritime security. Singapore’s position underscores its broader policy of non‑intervention in regional disputes while protecting its trade interests. The dispute highlights tensions among ASEAN members over how to handle Iran’s control of the chokepoint.
As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'
Negotiators from the United States and Iran are set to meet in Islamabad to discuss a cease‑fire, after weeks of aerial strikes that failed to topple Tehran’s regime. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still commands the Strait of Hormuz, keeping...
Chinese Firms Deploy over 1,600 Autonomous Delivery Vehicles, Handling 1 M+ Orders Monthly
Neolix and other Chinese companies have rolled out more than 1,600 unmanned delivery vehicles in over 100 cities, completing 1.02 million autonomous drops in September and earning 8.7 million yuan ($1.2 M). The rapid expansion highlights a shift toward low‑cost, AI‑driven last‑mile logistics...
Global Pivot to Renewables Seen Accelerating as Hormuz Uncertainty Upends Energy Security
The US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a rapid reassessment of energy security worldwide. Analysts say the crisis, which the IEA deems more severe than the 1973, 1979 and 2022 shocks combined, is accelerating...
Vikram Misri Meets US Officials to Deepen Defence and Trade Ties
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri spent three days in Washington meeting senior U.S. defence and commerce officials, including Under Secretaries Michael Duffey, Elbridge Colby, Jeffrey Kessler and William Kimmitt. The talks aimed to deepen defence industrial, technology and supply‑chain linkages under the Major...
Iran Ceasefire Still Leaves Airlines Facing High Fuel Costs, Even if Peace Endures
A two‑week cease‑fire announced on 8 April temporarily eased financial markets, but oil prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels. Reduced refinery capacity in Iran and a lingering backlog of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed jet‑fuel prices to...
Global Relief Wave Lifts Indian Markets, but FIIs Stay Cautious
Indian equities surged on Wednesday, with the NSE Nifty climbing 3.8% to 23,997.35 and the BSE Sensex up 4% to 77,562.90—the strongest one‑day gains since early 2021. The rally was sparked by relief over a US‑Iran cease‑fire that sent oil...
India Urges Iran to Speed up Oil Cargo Shipments Amid Ceasefire Window
India is urging Iran to accelerate the release of oil and gas cargoes bound for India, hoping to use a two‑week cease‑fire window to rebuild fuel inventories. Sixteen India‑flagged tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and roughly 800 vessels...
China’s Coal Power Fuels Energy Resilience Amid Crises
The war with Iran and the Hormuz closure have kicked up a lot of debate about Chinese energy futures. And Venezuela, from which China also bought oil, adds fuel to one piece of that debate. But my #CarnegieAsia teammate @damienics,...
Asia's Energy Path: Coal Return or Renewables Surge?
Will Asia return to coal, or will a new renewables future emerge from the Iran crisis? David Fickling and Akshat Rathi discuss https://t.co/PdxxKr6KZD
US‑Iran Ceasefire Triggers 16% Oil Price Drop but Global Economy Still Faces Geopolitical Headwinds
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, sending Brent crude down 16% to $93 a barrel and lifting equity markets worldwide. Yet analysts warn that the temporary truce leaves oil‑supply risks, inflation pressures and growth outlooks vulnerable...
Secure Hormuz Passage, Markets Pay Billions for Stability
Pay the toll — move the oil. If you guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, markets will pay. Certainty lowers risk. Risk moves prices. And when 21% of the world’s oil is on the line, stability is worth billions https://t.co/m4JhLddeJq
Asian Markets Set to Open Higher on Fragile Iran‑US Ceasefire
JUST IN: Asian markets are poised to rise at the open due to the fragile Iran-US ceasefire deal.
Key China Pension Fund Bets on New Quality Productivity- #Wealth #AssetManagement #AssetFinance
China’s National Social Security Fund (NSSF) has rebalanced its A‑share holdings, cutting exposure to traditional banking and consumer‑staple firms. The fund is redirecting capital toward sectors the government deems drivers of “new quality productivity,” notably artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and...
Investors Must Navigate Tactical Gains, Structural Risks in US-Iran Ceasefire- #Wealth #AssetManagement #AssetFinance
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ignited a sharp relief rally, pulling equity markets higher as tail‑risk premiums recede. Investors can seize short‑term gains, but the rally masks lingering structural vulnerabilities in the energy sector, where...
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Ceasefire Already in Question. Expect Markets to Still Move on Headlines, Little Asian Data Today but...
A US‑Iran ceasefire was announced, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing more than 800 vessels to seek passage. Global equities rallied, and the CME FedWatch tool lifted the probability of a year‑end Fed rate cut to roughly 43%. Shipping...
Wages of War: Opportunities Amid Risks
Bill Campbell, head of DoubleLine’s Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets team, warned that the Iran conflict – dubbed Operation Epic Fury – is injecting new inflation and growth risks into the global economy. He highlighted rising risk premiums for energy,...
Tehran Takes the Strait — and the Premium
Iran maintained roughly 1.9 million barrels‑per‑day of crude exports in March, even as rival Gulf shipments were curtailed. By restricting Hormuz traffic to vessels linked to Tehran, the country turned the strait into a de‑facto gatekeeper, limiting eastbound supply. This scarcity...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Thursday 9 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
US President Donald Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The truce sent Brent crude down 15% to $92.97, its steepest fall in six years, and pulled WTI lower as well. Japan reported...
Daily Bulletin...
The United States announced a 14‑day ceasefire with Iran, prompting Trump to threaten 50% tariffs on any country that supplies Tehran with weapons. The ceasefire sent oil prices tumbling more than 16%, easing inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland...
Trump Administration Signals It Is Mulling NATO Withdrawal After Iran War
President Donald Trump has signaled that the United States is weighing a withdrawal from NATO after European allies refused to commit combat troops to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called the alliance’s response a...
EMXC: The Case For Emerging Markets Without China
EMXC is an emerging‑markets ETF that deliberately excludes China, removing a 25 % drag and reallocating exposure to Taiwan, South Korea and India. Over the past five years it has outperformed the benchmark EEM by 471 basis points, delivering a Sharpe...
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
Kalshi’s prediction market shows investors assign a low probability to former President Donald Trump’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened soon. The market price reflects skepticism, pricing full reopening at under 20% likelihood. Meanwhile, December 2026...
How War in the Middle East Paralyzed an Asian Food Giant
The war in Iran has choked fuel and fertilizer supplies, pushing diesel prices in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta to levels higher than after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The surge forced rice mills to shut down and electricity costs to skyrocket,...
How China Positioned Itself to Win the Global Energy Crisis
China entered the Iran‑War with extensive oil and gas stockpiles and a clean‑energy infrastructure that outpaces any other nation. The conflict has throttled Hormuz shipments, prompting a rapid global shift toward renewables where China already dominates solar panels, wind turbines,...
Why China Might Have Pressed Iran To Compromise With The US
In late 2025, President Trump warned that if Iran did not accept a cease‑fire, the United States would target oil infrastructure, potentially cutting half of the seaborne oil that fuels China. Three unnamed Iranian officials told the New York Times...
Top Strategies for Foreign Investment in Singapore (2026)
Singapore’s inbound foreign direct investment surged to $143.4 billion in 2024, a 6.1% year‑on‑year rise, reaffirming its status as a top‑ranked global business hub. The city‑state maintains a 17% headline corporate income tax rate, with startup exemptions and a network of...
Dow Spikes by over 1,300, Oil Prices Retreat in Ceasefire Rally
President Trump announced a two‑week Iran cease‑fire, igniting a broad market rally on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,320 points, up 2.85%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped nearly 620 points, up 2.8%. Volatility eased as the...
US‑Iran Ceasefire Triggers Oil Price Drop but Long‑Term Supply Uncertainty Persists
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, sending Brent crude down about 16% to $93 a barrel and sparking a rally in global equity markets. While the truce offers short‑term relief for oil‑dependent economies, analysts caution that the...
Why Pressure Toppled Caracas but Not Tehran
U.S.‑backed political transition in Venezuela, led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, has stabilized the country and revived oil production, with exports topping 1 million barrels per day in March. Polls show nearly 80% of Venezuelans feel conditions are the same or...
COMMENT: Should the Ceasefire Fail, We Could Expect a ‘Digital Hormuz’ Scenario
In less than three years GCC states have assembled the world’s largest non‑US digital infrastructure, with data‑centre capacity slated to triple to 3.3 GW by 2030 and projects like the UAE’s Stargate AI campus backed by $15 bn from Microsoft and partners....
Piyush Goyal Urges Exporters to Tap India-US Portal to Boost Trade
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal called on exporters in both countries to adopt the newly launched India‑US trade‑facilitation portal. The digital platform is positioned as a “runway” for Indian services and product exporters seeking U.S. customers. Officials highlighted the bilateral...
Dragon Does a Trump 'China Made Efforts to Stop War'
Chinese diplomat Mao Ning asserted Beijing’s “own efforts” to push a cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, following former President Donald Trump’s public credit to China for the deal. The truce, a two‑week pause mediated by Pakistan, came after...
‘Ceasefire’ Brings Little Relief for Persian Gulf Ship Traffic Jam
On April 7 the United States and Iran signed a conditional two‑week ceasefire that promised a “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, has made clear it will only permit vessels through if Israel halts its...
Analysts Warn the TACO Trade Won’t Last Forever After an Iran Ceasefire Wipes Out Weeks of Losses in Markets
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, prompting a rapid market rebound dubbed “TACO Tuesday.” The $1.5 trillion rally lifted the Nasdaq 3.55%, the S&P 500 2.7% and the Dow 2.6%, while oil prices dropped 16% to just under $100...
Tech Firms Skip Middle East, Boost Latin America Data Hubs
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
Beijing Is Trying to Break U.S. Narratives Over Taiwan
Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li‑wun led a delegation to Beijing from April 7‑12, meeting President Xi Jinping in the first KMT visit to China in a decade. Beijing framed the trip as a chance to promote the 1992 Consensus and argue...
Ajay Banga on Responding to This Economic Crisis: ‘Focus on Policies’ that ‘Create Jobs’
World Bank Group President Ajay Banga warned that the Iran war could add 0.9 percentage points of inflation and shave 0.4 percentage points off global growth, especially hurting emerging markets. He highlighted the Bank’s Crisis Response Windows, which let countries draw up...
The Dollar’s Slow Unraveling: How Bitcoin, Digital Currencies, and a Secret Oil Deal Are Reshaping the World’s Money
A new paper in the Journal of Post‑Keynesian Economics details how the US dollar became the world’s primary currency, largely thanks to a secret 1974 Saudi‑oil‑for‑Treasury‑bond pact that expired in 2024. The study argues that the petrodollar arrangement allowed the...
India's Growth May Slow to 6.6% in FY27 Due to West Asia War: World Bank
The World Bank now expects India’s economy to expand 6.6% in FY27, down from the 7.6% growth recorded in FY26. The downgrade reflects heightened energy costs and trade disruptions stemming from the West Asia war, which could shave 30‑40 basis...
Oil Slump Pushes Yields Lower, India Growth Forecast Cut
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ Brazil's 10-year bond yield tumbled toward 13.7% as crude oil prices plunged, improving the inflation outlook. ⦿ US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 464.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. ⦿ US 10-year...
US Mulls Lifting Venezuela Central Bank Sanctions, Boosting Economy
SCOOP: The US is considering lifting sanctions on #Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy, sources familiar with the matter tell Andreina Itriago, @zerpius and me. https://t.co/DlIY8v24CH
Taiwan Chip Industry Calls for Helium, LNG Reserves Amid Iran War Risks
The Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) urged the Taiwanese government to build strategic reserves of helium and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and to consider reopening nuclear power plants. The call follows heightened risk that the ongoing Iran‑related conflict could choke...
GCC U.S. Investments Threatened by Iran War Cash Cuts
Are foreign investments by GCC countries into the U.S. market compromised as cash flows continue to be cut off by the war in Iran? Watch my entire interview with @JayMartinBC here ➡️ https://t.co/0whdPPs6jQ #iranwar #economy #geopolitics https://t.co/pFuTmXYj79
Ceasefire Headlines Barely Dent Market; Futures Stay Strong
A day filled with headlines about the ceasefire being violated, not holding, etc. has had almost no impact on stock prices. Futures still way up on the day. https://t.co/6JyGWIaWcl
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% and Reaffirms Neutral Stance as Markets React
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy repo rate steady at 5.25% and reiterated a neutral stance on April 8, 2026. The decision came as the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee cited resilient macro fundamentals despite heightened geopolitical...
US Vice President Vance Leads First US‑Iran Talks in Islamabad
The first round of US-Iran talks will take place Saturday in Islamabad, with the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance, the White House said.
Escalating Middle East Conflict Ignored by Markets
Ok let's review, Strait is back to closed, Israel is bombing Tehran and Lebanon, Iran is drone bombing Kuwait/Saudi pipelines/UAE, they are threatening to cancel Friday's meeting and the markets couldn't care less.
Macro Data Deluge Competes with US‑Iran Tensions
Next week's macro docket is nuts. The IMF will update its WEO; China Q1 GDP; Bank earnings start and the Fed Beige Book will inform the Apr 29 FOMC decision (among other many other listings). Are we going to be...
Iran's Hormuz Closure Raises Global Energy Security Concerns
Iran has closed the Strait. What can be done with their having control of Hormuz? What is next?