Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Iran War, Oracle Layoffs, El Niño Worries: What’s Keeping the World on Edge
Global markets are rattled by three converging forces: a sudden U.S. pivot toward a two‑week conditional ceasefire with Iran, Oracle’s large‑scale AI‑driven layoffs, and escalating El Niño‑related climate risks. Elevated oil prices from Middle‑East tensions are tightening industrial supply chains, while tech‑sector job cuts signal a broader shift toward automation. Simultaneously, El Niño threatens agricultural output and adds volatility to commodity markets, creating a precarious backdrop for investors worldwide.
Philippines Faces Energy Crisis Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Since 2008, Philippines’s economy has put in a strong performance. But, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, PH is going to take a hit. It has ~50 days of oil reserves left and has declared a national energy emergency. PH should send...
Kenya, DRC, Ethiopia Growth Forecasts Trimmed as Fitch Warns of Tanzania’s Fragility
Fitch lowered its 2026 growth forecasts for Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia, citing a hotter‑than‑expected inflation outlook driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict. Kenya’s projection fell to 5.0% from 5.2%, DRC to 5.2% from 5.7% and Ethiopia to...
Hong Kong Stocks Jump as Risk Appetite Returns After US and Iran Agree on Ceasefire
Hong Kong stocks surged 2.7% to 25,801 points after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire, easing geopolitical tension. Brent crude fell 14% and WTI 15%, pushing both benchmarks below $100 a barrel and lifting risk appetite across...
Here's What Smart People Are Saying About Trump's Ceasefire Deal with Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil corridor. Reactions split along partisan lines, with business leaders and foreign‑policy experts debating its durability. Analysts suggest the move is aimed...
War‑Driven Curfews Slash Tourism in Egypt and Jordan, Visitor Numbers Plummet
Egypt and Jordan have imposed early shop closures and face missile alerts as the Iran‑related war drives up fuel costs, prompting a sharp decline in tourism. Jordan recorded just 2,000 visitors during the post‑Ramadan holiday week, while Egypt’s 19 million‑visitor market...
Indian Rupee Slides to 93.07 per Dollar as Oil Prices Top $110
The Indian rupee weakened to 93.07 per U.S. dollar, slipping 17 paise in early trade. The move was driven by Brent crude climbing to $111.11 a barrel and a $16 billion pull‑back of foreign capital, underscoring how commodity shocks are outweighing...
Trump Announces Two-Week Ceasefire in Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran’s immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal came just 90 minutes before a looming 8 p.m. deadline for potential U.S. strikes. Trump posted the deal...
Giant Stock Rally Erupts as Trump Offers Reprieve to Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week deferment of a planned U.S. attack on Iran, hoping to secure a deal over the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement sparked a rapid rally in global equities, with Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping over 3%...
Ceasefire Sparks Asian Rally; Vietnam Gains EM Upgrade
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
Chinese Banks' Net Dollar Exposure Surges Dramatically
To be blunt, no one gave this memo to China's banks External dollar assets up, external dollar liabilities down -- net long dollars way up. and we already know from other banking data that the dollar long increased significantly in...
Stock Futures Surge, Oil Prices Slide as Trump Announces Two-Week Cease-Fire with Iran
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, halting a planned U.S. bombing and securing an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement sent U.S. stock futures soaring—S&P 500 up about 2.2% and Nasdaq‑100 up roughly 2.8%—while West...
Iran, Oman Authorized to Charge Strait of Hormuz Fees
JUST IN: Iran and Oman can now impose fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire deal, per a regional official.
Iran Holds Strait of Hormuz Despite Trump Cease‑Fire Claim
JUST IN: Iran's regime is persisting with its grip on the Strait of Hormuz despite President Trump's cease-fire announcement.
Hermès Opens Five‑Story Flagship in Beijing’s Sanlitun, Fulfilling Family Promise
Hermès has opened its first standalone flagship in Beijing’s Sanlitun district, a five‑story, locally‑crafted store that fulfills a promise made by the late Jean‑Louis Dumas. The launch underscores the brand’s commitment to China’s luxury market and its strategy of marrying...
Israel Agrees to Two‑week US‑Iran Ceasefire Terms
JUST IN: Israel accepted the two-week US-Iran ceasefire terms, according to a White House official.
Letter: Countries that Abandoned Kabul May Soon Regret It
The Financial Times letter cautions that nations which abandoned Kabul after the Taliban’s 2021 takeover may soon regret their decision. It argues that the swift evacuation left a governance vacuum, weakening regional stability and compromising counter‑terrorism cooperation. The author warns...
Barclays Boosts Hong Kong Presence to Tap Thriving IPO Market, Global CEO Says
Barclays is expanding its Hong Kong investment‑banking franchise after reporting a 32% year‑on‑year turnover increase to £487 million and a 253% jump in pre‑tax profit to £152 million. The bank, which has operated in the city for 54 years, plans to invest further in...
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Strengthen Collaboration on Critical Minerals
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan launched a joint working group in Astana to coordinate prospecting, technology exchange, and extraction of critical minerals and rare earths. Both governments pledged to attract foreign investment and streamline cooperation. The initiative aligns with a U.S. push,...
Stay Cash-Ready: Capital Shifts to Energy, Compute, Data
Thoughts? We discuss how geopolitical tensions and Trump's deadline are creating major market volatility. We break down what the average person misses: how to watch the dollar, yields, and capital flows to stay ahead of the smart money. We explore...
Iran Updates: Pakistan Seeks 2-Week Pause After Trump Warns 'Whole Civilization Will Die' If No Deal by Deadline
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that a missed deadline would trigger massive strikes, claiming a "whole civilization" could die if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appealed on X for a two‑week...
Iran Agrees to Ceasefire, Reopening Strait of Hormuz Soon
*IRAN ACCEPTS PAKISTAN'S TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL: NYT -- "ceasefire will come into force when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz" -- So, this chart will be at zero tomorrow, and ships can start moving immediately? https://t.co/3VFPp2rq6x
Trump Delays Iran Attack as Ceasefire Nears
President Donald Trump postponed by two weeks his threat to attack civilian infrastructure across #Iran, as negotiators inched closer to a ceasefire deal that will see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/jaoOe5416G
Trump Says He's Extending the Deadline for Iran by 2 Weeks in Exchange for Immediate Opening of the Strait of...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week extension of the deadline for a deal with Iran, contingent on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The conditional ceasefire aims to create space for negotiations that could end the ongoing conflict....
Vietnam: AI Offers Path to High-Income Digital Economy
Vietnam is gearing up to make artificial intelligence the engine of a high‑income digital economy, with a JICA‑backed report estimating AI could contribute up to $130 billion to GDP by 2040 – roughly a quarter of current output. The government has...
Iran War; Ma Xingrui; Industrial and Supply Chain Security; PLA Political Rectification; MSS Warns About Foreign Dinner Guests
China and Russia vetoed Bahrain's UN Security Council resolution that sought multilateral cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint. Beijing’s ambassador argued the draft was influenced by President Donald Trump’s recent remarks, framing it as provocative....
The Iran Conflict Isn’t Panicking Investors — Yet. That’s About to Change.
Since the Iran conflict erupted in late February, U.S. equities have drifted lower but have not suffered a sharp sell‑off. Corporate bond spreads have stayed relatively narrow, and long‑term inflation expectations have risen only modestly. Wall Street analysts find the...
The Iran War Doesn’t Immediately Jeopardize Taiwan
The article argues that the U.S. war in Iran does not create an immediate threat to Taiwan, but it reshapes strategic calculations in the Indo‑Pacific. It examines whether Washington’s willingness to intervene in Iran signals a readiness to defend Taiwan,...
Commentary: China’s Muted Response to the Iran War Speaks Volumes
China’s response to the Iran war was deliberately muted, limiting its public statements to a generic expression of concern while focusing on evacuating thousands of citizens and dispatching a special envoy. The restraint reflects Beijing’s calculation that the conflict poses...
Trump Allies Play Down Iran ‘Genocide’ Threats as Critics Warn of War Crimes
Trump‑aligned politicians in the United States have downplayed recent accusations that Iran is committing genocide against Palestinian civilians, framing the claims as political hyperbole. Critics, including human‑rights groups and several foreign‑policy experts, argue that Iran’s support for Hamas and its...
South Africa’s ASP Offers US‑backed Gas Alternative to Russia, Qatar
ASP Isotopes to the rescue? $ASPI Strategically positioned in geopolitically neutral South Africa and bolstered by the backing of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), ASP’s Virginia Gas Project - integrated through the Renergen acquisition - stands as a...
The Democratic Republic of the Congo as a Near-Term Strategic Opportunity for U.S. Companies | Part 2
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is becoming a near‑term strategic market for U.S. firms thanks to new DFC financing, infrastructure commitments, and a bilateral partnership. However, this opportunity brings heightened governance and compliance scrutiny, requiring board‑level defensibility rather than...
IMF to Slash Global Growth Forecast Amid Iran War
The IMF is poised to cut its forecasts for global growth as a result of the Iran war, and sees danger in a world economy that’s ill-equipped to respond to shocks, the Kristalina Georgieva says https://t.co/KcfFIhk4sU via @jdorosario @sdonnan https://t.co/1P3OgECM3e
Strait Closure Fuels Market Drag; Iran Refuses Leverage Trade‑off
Two points that remain top of mind for me. How do you solve these? 1. Delays that don't open the Strait keeps negative carry on the stock market https://t.co/xqJjSx51rF 2. Iran is not going to open the Strait for a ceasefire and forego...
The Gulf’s Digital Transformation
The United Arab Emirates is positioning itself as the Gulf’s premier hub for digital assets, with regulators such as VARA, ADGM and the Securities and Commodities Authority creating a clear, activity‑based framework for tokenized securities, real estate and even oil‑backed...
IMF Flags Rising Imbalances, Revives Currency Manipulation Label
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
Ethiopia’s Birr Slumps 107% as Fertilizer and Fuel Costs Surge, Threatening Record Wheat Harvest
Ethiopia’s birr has lost roughly 107% of its value against the dollar since July 2024, pushing fertilizer prices up 60% and fuel up 56%. The surge in input costs threatens to erode gains from a projected record 7 million‑metric‑ton wheat harvest...
India's FY27 Growth Forecast Cut to 6.8‑6.9% Amid Energy Shock and Middle East Conflict
ICICI Bank trimmed its FY27 GDP projection for India to 6.8‑6.9% from 7.2%, while Moody's downgraded its own estimate to 6% from 6.8%. Both agencies cite the ongoing West Asia war, soaring oil prices and constrained LPG and LNG supplies...
China Drives Global Rollout of Data‑driven Agri‑tech, 270 Projects in 40+ Countries
Lisente Agricultural Technology Co. is exporting data‑rich greenhouse systems to Uzbekistan, Guinea and Romania, marking the latest push in China's 15th Five‑Year Plan to globalise precision‑farming. The company has completed more than 270 projects across 40 countries, delivering IoT‑enabled, AI‑monitored...
One in Eight British Residents Has Left UAE Since Iran War, Data Shows
Financial Times data reveals that roughly one in eight British residents have left the United Arab Emirates since the outbreak of the Iran‑UAE conflict earlier this year. The exodus, driven by heightened security concerns and travel restrictions, has accelerated in...
Muhlenkamp Quarterly Market Commentary – April 2026
U.S. and Israeli forces resumed combat against Iran in late February, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and launch missile strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. The conflict lifted crude oil to about $102 per barrel, boosted the DXY...
Pakistan Urges Iran to Reopen Hormuz, Pause Fighting
🚨 Pakistan requesting Iran: ➡️ Open straight of Hormuz for 2 weeks ➡️ Ceasefire for two weeks ➡️ Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks ➡️ Meanwhile, Iranian official tells Reuters: exchanges via mediators still ongoing (😇 this morning it was cutoff?)
Iranians Face More Chaos as New Year Begins and Trump Sharpens Threat
Iranians returned to work after the Nowruz holidays to the sound of fighter jets, as domestic unrest intensifies. President Donald Trump escalated U.S. rhetoric, warning of a possible annihilation of Iran. The heightened military presence follows recent airstrikes on Tehran...
China’s Reported Exports to US Dwarf Imports Post‑301 Tariffs
Indeed, an important question -- Ever since the 301 tariffs were introduced, the exports that China reports to the US have far exceeded US imports -- and now the gap is exceptionally big 1/3 https://t.co/b1eDSKKtRz
Trump Admin Warned of $200 Oil, Brent Hits $144
Two weeks ago, we scooped that the Trump administration was modeling the impact of oil prices reaching as high as $200 a barrel due to the #IranWar. Dated Brent oil just hit a record about $144...
Unseen Momentum Could Be Mounting Behind the Yuan
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Chinese yuan could become a global reserve currency within five years, challenging the U.S. dollar’s entrenched position. The dollar still processes about 58% of international transactions, while the yuan accounts for roughly 2% of...
General Caine Warns Iran Could Block Vital Hormuz Strait
MUST READ: “General Caine […] also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came...
Geopolitics, Inflation, & Crypto Resilience: What Advisors Need to Know
Markets faced heightened volatility as Gulf tensions revived oil price spikes and strained bond markets. The Federal Reserve confronts a mixed inflation picture, with the ISM manufacturing index hitting a four‑year high driven by input‑cost pressures, limiting rate‑cut flexibility. Meanwhile,...
UK Signals It Will Not Let US Use British Bases to Attack Iran’s Civilian Infrastructure
The United Kingdom has announced it will not permit the United States to use British military bases for strikes against Iran’s civilian infrastructure. The statement follows heightened regional tensions after Iran’s recent attacks on Israel and U.S. considerations of retaliatory...
Understanding the War in Iran: A Private Discussion with Geopolitical Dispatch Experts
In a private roundtable, Geopolitical Dispatch experts dissected the Iran war, tracing its roots to a disputed election that ignited mass protests and a harsh government crackdown. They examined how regional rivals and global powers—Russia, China, the United States, and...