Vietnam: AI Offers Path to High-Income Digital Economy

Why It Matters

AI’s projected $130 billion boost could lift Vietnam out of the middle‑income trap, reshaping its competitive position in Southeast Asia and attracting foreign investment. Coordinated public‑private action will be essential to build the talent, infrastructure, and financing needed for sustainable growth.

Key Takeaways

• AI could add $130 billion to Vietnam’s GDP by 2040.
• Government places AI in 11 tech groups and 35 priority products.
• National AI strategy to 2045 features AI‑X plan and council.
• Viettel and VNG prioritize sovereign AI models and commercial rollout.
• Current AI investment trails regional peers; talent pipeline remains critical.

Pulse Analysis

Vietnam’s AI ambition reflects a broader shift toward data‑driven economies worldwide. The JICA‑commissioned study quantifies that AI could inject $130 billion into the nation’s output by 2040, a figure comparable to a quarter of today’s GDP. This projection places Vietnam among the few emerging markets with a clear monetary target for AI, underscoring the technology’s role as a macro‑economic catalyst rather than a niche innovation. Investors and policymakers are watching closely as the country seeks to leapfrog traditional development pathways.

The government’s AI roadmap is anchored by a national strategy that earmarks AI across 11 strategic technology groups and 35 priority products, with an AI‑X action plan extending to 2045. A proposed National Council on AI, slated for 2026‑2028, would centralise decision‑making, streamline financing, and align land‑use policies to accelerate infrastructure rollout. Parallel initiatives aim to embed AI performance metrics into broader socio‑economic assessments, ensuring that progress is measurable and accountable. These policy levers are designed to nurture a robust data ecosystem, expand computing capacity, and cultivate a digitally skilled workforce.

Private sector players are translating policy into practice. Viettel has positioned AI as its fifth strategic pillar, committing to research, development, and commercialisation through 2040, while VNG stresses the need for homegrown foundational models. However, Vietnam’s AI investment still lags behind regional rivals, highlighting a talent gap that could impede scaling. Bridging this divide will require targeted incentives, university‑industry collaborations, and a focus on turning prototypes into market‑ready solutions. If these challenges are met, AI could become the cornerstone of Vietnam’s transition to a high‑income, globally competitive digital economy by 2045.