Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Brazil Nears Full Beef Quota to China, Threatening Export Shift
Brazil's meatpackers are on track to meet the 2026 Chinese beef import quota by mid‑year, after shipping more than 510,000 tons—about 65% of the limit—so far. The looming quota cap, coupled with a 55% tariff on excess volumes, could shave up to 10% off Brazil's annual beef exports and force the industry to hunt for alternative destinations.
RedCloud Hires Ex-Microsoft Exec Vikram Sharma as CRO to Drive AI Joint‑venture Expansion
RedCloud Holdings plc appointed Vikram Sharma, a former Microsoft senior leader, as Chief Revenue Officer for Infrastructure. Sharma will lead AI‑focused joint‑venture expansion in Southeast Asia and West Africa, building on a $30 million licensing agreement in Saudi Arabia and a...
Hong Kong Posts 5.9% Q1 Growth – Fastest in Nearly Five Years
Hong Kong’s government announced that the city’s GDP expanded 5.9% year‑on‑year in the first quarter of 2026, the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2021. The surge was powered by a boom in artificial‑intelligence‑related exports, a rebound in visitor...
USD/INR Dips to 95.12 as Record High Stalls Amid Middle East War
The Indian rupee fell to around 95.12 per dollar, a modest 0.12% drop after hitting a fresh all‑time high of 95.40. Traders cite the ongoing Middle East war and high oil prices as the main brakes on further depreciation.
Kyodo News Digest: May 7, 2026
The G7 trade ministers pledged to resist economic coercion, targeting China’s export controls on critical minerals, while China urged continued negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Japan demonstrated its maritime capabilities by firing anti‑ship missiles in the Balikatan...
The New Scramble: Turkey, Somalia and the Battle for the Red Sea
Turkey has deepened its partnership with Somalia, moving from humanitarian aid and soft‑power projects to a high‑stakes oil agreement and expanded military presence. In early 2024 Ankara signed a deal that lets Turkish state oil firms recover up to 90%...
A Way Out via the Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran are locked in a post‑Feb. 28, 2026 confrontation that includes a US naval blockade and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Scholars argue that the long‑standing time‑inconsistency of sanctions‑relief deals and accumulated political debt make a...
Iran FM in China; Trump China Visit Next Week; EU Losing Patience?; DeepSeek; Xi on Basic Research; MU5735 Crash Investigation
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir‑Abdollahian in Beijing, where Beijing pressed for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. Wang reiterated China’s principled stance, supporting Iran’s sovereignty while urging a comprehensive cease‑fire and renewed negotiations....
Commentary: Deepening Iran War and Hormuz Crisis Have Left India Sidelined
Iran’s recent drone strike on a UAE oil port injured three Indian nationals and earlier attacks on two Indian‑flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have exposed India’s diplomatic vulnerability in the Middle East. New Delhi condemned the attacks, summoned...
Commentary: The Heat Is on Thailand to Not Just Muddle Through
Thailand’s economy is confronting a perfect storm of falling tourism arrivals, a weakening baht and an unprecedented heatwave that is straining electricity use. Inflation, long stuck near zero, is projected to climb to about 3% this year, while GDP may...
How the Petrodollar Regime Came to Be, and What Losing It Would Mean for the U.S.
The petrodollar system began in 1974 when the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in dollars in exchange for military and economic support. This arrangement funneled massive oil revenues into U.S. Treasury bonds, cementing...
Indonesia Posts 5.6% Q1 Growth Amid Iran‑Related Energy Crisis
Indonesia's Statistics Agency reported a 5.61% year‑on‑year rise in first‑quarter 2026 GDP, beating Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal forecasts. The expansion came despite a regional energy shock tied to the Iran‑related conflict, highlighting the resilience of the Southeast Asian giant.
How the Iran War Is Affecting Latin America and the Caribbean’s Economic Outlook
The Iran war has triggered a fresh energy shock by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas. Latin America and the Caribbean are seeing inflation expectations rise as higher fuel, fertilizer and food...
Nigeria’s Naira Surges as CBN Reserves Hit $46.7 Bn After Rate Cut
The Central Bank of Nigeria raised its foreign‑exchange reserves to $46.7 bn and trimmed its policy rate, prompting a pronounced rally in the naira. Analysts see the move as a test of Nigeria’s reform agenda and a potential catalyst for renewed...
Navigating the Many Issues Surrounding China’s Ports Abroad
China’s overseas‑port strategy has expanded to more than two dozen nations, where Chinese firms act as builders, financiers, operators and investors. Host governments tout expected gains in cargo capacity, surrounding economic zones, jobs and foreign‑exchange earnings, while critics highlight debt...
The Iran Standoff and the Future of Oil
The United States has officially declared the three‑day conflict with Iran over, yet diplomatic friction persists as Tehran signals a strong negotiating position. Analysts argue that Iran is likely to emerge with a strategic win, which could push global oil...
OTC Speakers Say Venezuela Reopening Hinges on Stability, Legal Clarity
At the 2026 Offshore Technology Conference, speakers warned that Venezuela’s re‑entry into the U.S. energy market hinges on political stability, clear legal frameworks, and manageable geopolitical risk. U.S. majors such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have already dispatched technical teams to...
Markets Catch a Whiff of Peace as Oil Cools, but Risks Linger
A tentative US‑Iran memorandum sparked a sharp retreat in oil, with Brent falling 7% to $102 a barrel and WTI dropping 8% to $94, the steepest two‑session decline since the April ceasefire. The easing of supply‑risk fears lifted Indian equities,...
Brazil Poised for $21.3 Bn Critical‑Mineral Investment by 2030
Brazil will draw $21.3 bn in critical‑mineral investments through 2030, a 15.2% rise over the previous forecast. The surge centers on rare‑earth, lithium and other battery metals, positioning the country as a key alternative to China’s dominance.
Iran Peace Hopes Spark 3% Surge in Emerging‑Market Stocks, Boosting Risk Appetite
Investors pushed a benchmark of developing‑world equities up 3.1% on Wednesday as signals of a US‑Iran peace agreement revived risk appetite. The rally lifted the index’s year‑to‑date gain to nearly 22%, while currencies rallied and oil prices fell.
Brazil Central Bank Holds Tight Policy as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Pressures
Brazil's central bank approved a 0.25‑percentage‑point cut to the Selic rate, bringing it to 14.5%, yet signaled that monetary policy will remain restrictive. Officials cited the war in the Middle East, higher global oil prices and strong domestic demand as...
Q&A: How the Strait of Hormuz Closure Affects Global Oil Supply
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted the transit of roughly 20% of the world’s oil, sending shockwaves through global commodity markets. Tim Statts of Schneider Electric explains that despite the U.S. being the top oil producer, it...
Belgium Urges EU to Save Industry by Getting Tough on China
Belgium’s foreign minister Maxime Prévot called on the European Union to protect strategic sectors—including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, metals, automotive and critical minerals—from a surge of Chinese imports. He warned that the EU’s €360 billion (about $390 billion) trade deficit with China is eroding...
US to Lift Eritrea Sanctions as Red Sea Tensions Reshape Alliances
The United States plans to lift the 2021 sanctions on Eritrea around May 4, according to a State Department note. The decision reflects Washington’s reassessment of Eritrea’s strategic value along the Red Sea shipping corridor amid heightened tensions after the Strait...
Africa's Rising Relevance Amid Global Shifts: Banks Are Key Catalysts
The first quarter’s geopolitical shocks have highlighted Africa’s growing integration with the global economy. Despite tighter financing, the continent is projected to grow over 4% in 2026‑27, outpacing the 3% global forecast, driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area’s...
China and Japan Are Entering a More Dangerous Phase of Rivalry
The long‑standing China‑Japan rivalry has entered a new, more confrontational phase as Tokyo adopts a stronger military stance. Prime Minister Takaichi’s warning that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatens Japan’s survival, the deployment of 1,000‑km Type‑12 land‑to‑ship missiles, and a...
China Will Benefit From the Iran War, Regardless of Any Deal Between Trump and Tehran
The Iran war is reshaping Gulf security calculations, exposing limits in U.S. military deterrence and prompting Gulf states to diversify defence procurement. China, while not positioning itself as a security guarantor, is leveraging diplomatic outreach—highlighted by Xi’s calls to keep...
Daily Memo: Rubio-Lavrov Call, Taiwan-Ukraine Ties
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone conversation, their first in six months, after Moscow initiated the contact. The call focused on bilateral relations and a range of global security concerns. In...
Understanding China's Economy and the Housing Bust, with Tianlei Huang
On May 19, 2026, the Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual PIIE Insider LIVE chat featuring senior fellow Tianlei Huang. Huang discussed the evolution of China’s economy, from export‑driven manufacturing to the massive housing boom and its subsequent...
Peace Deal or Bigger War? Markets Reassess Iran Optimism After Trump Warning
Markets swung from optimism to caution as reports of a one‑page, 14‑point US‑Iran peace framework pushed Brent crude briefly below $100 and sparked a dollar sell‑off. The upbeat mood was reversed when President Donald Trump warned on Truth Social that...
Five Killed as Russian Strikes Hit Ukraine's Power Grid Before Truce
Russian drones and missiles slammed Ukraine's power grid overnight, killing five civilians and injuring 39. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denounced the attacks as "utter cynicism" and pledged a reciprocal truce as Moscow announced a short‑term ceasefire for Victory Day.
India and Vietnam Target $25 Billion Trade by 2030, Sign 13 Agreements Across Key Sectors
India and Vietnam elevated their relationship to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and signed 13 agreements spanning critical minerals, digital payments, pharmaceuticals, tourism and education. Both sides set a target to boost bilateral trade to $25 billion by 2030. Key deals...
China Makes AI‑Powered Robots Central to 15th Five‑Year Plan
China has embedded AI‑powered robots in its 15th Five‑Year Plan, aiming to boost industrial automation with an estimated 2 million operational units and capture 54% of worldwide robot installations. The move signals a shift toward high‑end intelligent robotics and reshapes global...
India’s Energy Risk Surges as Sea Routes Turn Strategic
India’s energy security is increasingly threatened by the strategic weaponisation of maritime chokepoints. About half of its crude oil and 90% of LPG/LNG imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, while over a third of its overall trade depends on...
Indonesia Urges Restraint as Iran-US Tensions Spill Into UAE
Indonesia's foreign ministry voiced deep concern over recent missile and drone strikes on UAE oil facilities, urging all parties to exercise maximum restraint. The statement, posted on X, did not assign blame but warned that further escalation could disrupt global...
Chokepoints Review: Is Economic Warfare Here to Stay?
Edward Fishman's new paperback *Chokepoints* argues that control over the US dollar, advanced microchip technology and critical energy supply chains has become the primary weapon of 21st‑century geopolitics. Drawing on his tenure in the State Department’s sanctions teams, Fishman shows...
Peace Deal Would Boost US Iran Oil Blockade
If we end up with a peace agreement - a big if at this stage - that'll count as a big win for the US blockade of Iran. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the key question for the West has been...
China Gauges US Moves, Eyes Potential Taiwan Blockade
Is China watching the Strait and seeing what the US does? In case China blockades Taiwan.
Africa Forward Summit Will Be Judged by What It Delivers
The Africa Forward Summit, co‑hosted by Kenya and France in May 2026, aims to turn rising global recognition of Africa into concrete outcomes. Organisers stress delivery on established priorities—infra‑structure, industrial capacity, digital investment and climate finance—rather than new declarations. The...
China Discovers 8.8 Bn‑barrel Oil Field in Iraq
Tough times for Iraq...but good news for the future of its oil sector. China's Zhenhua finds 8.8 billion bbl oil field in Najaf province near the Saudi border. This is a long way from any previous discoveries either in Iraq or...
Trump’s Blacklist Blunder Reveals Internal Beijing Strategy Conflict
Major Scoop from colleague: A mishandled blacklisting of Chinese tech firms gives insight into how the Trump administration can be at war with itself on a Beijing strategy https://t.co/CqsqJdyIlW
Emerging Markets Set to Outpace Nasdaq 100 Gains
As impressive as the Nasdaq 100's charge is as it pushes fresh record highs, there is another asset class that is looking to outperform the market-cap dense/tech oriented index: emerging markets. Here's the EEM ETF overlaid with the EEM-NDQ ratio:...
China’s Imports Lag Behind Domestic Demand Since 2012
One important stylized fact about the Chinese economy that doesn't get enough attention -- import growth has lagged domestic demand growth since at least 2012, and arguably since 2007 or so 1/3 https://t.co/K5wsTUcAhf
Emerging Markets Still Undervalued—Diversify Now
Saw an ad from another firm that said: "Emerging Markets: the train has left the station, but you can still catch it" 10/10. Never too late to diversify. Especially with EM valuations *still* way below US and DM.
Silence From High-Level Sources May Signal Imminent Hormuz Crisis
To be clear: I have no information, on or off the record. But my gut says something may break soon around Hormuz. What has my attention isn’t what sources are saying. It’s which high-level sources have suddenly gone quiet. Sometimes silence is the...
BIMCO Warns Project Freedom Pause Spikes Hormuz Risk
BIMCO Warns Abrupt ‘Project Freedom’ Pause Complicates Hormuz Risk Calculus. Oil and other products that come thru the Strait. Can this go on until supply shortage meets demand destruction? https://t.co/R2ZJUtaZxX
OpenSquareCap’s Q1 Letter Maps Post‑War Energy Market Outlook
Q1 letter from @OpenSquareCap is the best breakdown of Iran war energy implications I've read. The granularity of the supply chain analysis and alt data interpretation is just something else. Whatever the outcome of the conflict, this letter maps out where energy...
Dedollarization Fails: Rubles Require Dollars to Acquire
What does it take to buy Russian energy? Rubles. How many outside Russia have Rubles? Almost no one. Where does one get Rubles? Gazprom. How do you get them? With US dollars. 😂 This is how you write Dedollarization in Cyrillic…
Staggering EM Reserve Losses Expose Policy Failures
The scale of EM reserve losses during this shock is staggering. More than anything, that tells you about policy dysfunction in certain EMs. Turkey kept its peg to USD, so it had no choice but to intervene a ton. Pakistan...
Energy Shocks Tighten Budgets, Downgrade Slovakia, Strain CEE
JUST IN: Energy shocks and support measures are straining Central and Eastern European finances, with Romania facing further budget tightening and risks to 2027 budget talks, negative outlooks for Hungary and Romania, and Slovakia's recent downgrade.