Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Can Countries Grow Richer by Exporting People, Not Goods?
Kerala’s prosperity increasingly stems from its diaspora rather than traditional exports. About 1.7 million Keralites—roughly 5 % of the state’s population and 11 % of its workforce—are employed in Gulf nations. Their earnings, sent home as remittances, now constitute a sizable share of household income and boost the state’s GDP. This labor‑export model ties Kerala’s fortunes to the health of oil‑rich economies and the stability of the Middle East.
India’s Weak Currency Reflects Deeper Problems than the Iran War
The IMF’s April update shows India’s rupee lost roughly 10% against the dollar in the fiscal year ending March, pushing the country to sixth place in global GDP rankings, behind the United Kingdom. The currency slide reflects not just external...
Taiwan’s Cheng Will Face a Tough Crowd on US Visit
Cheng Li‑wun, chair of Taiwan’s Kuomintang, will travel to the United States in June after recent talks with China’s leader Xi Jinping. She intends to pitch a cross‑Strait peace formula while still courting U.S. arms sales, a stance that clashes with...
World Bank Resurrects Industrial Policy: Ball Is in Southeast Asia’s Court
The World Bank has reversed its long‑standing opposition to industrial policy, declaring it a core component of national development strategies in its 2026 report. It cites three transformative trends—global value chains, green industrial policies, and AI—that require countries to upgrade...
Iran Tensions Push Oil Above $110, Market Volatility Spikes
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── U.S. oil prices surged above $110 per barrel amid potential military action against Iran. Iran maintains hardline stance on Strait of Hormuz control, increasing risk of extended blockade and oil supply disruptions. US Navy intercepted the 42nd...
Flexible Supply Chains May Soften UK Price Impact
Economic effects of the US/Israeli conflict with Iran are emerging for UK consumers and businesses. However, flexible supply chains may cushion price https://t.co/MNmgP7YtEG
This Oil Shock Will Hit Asia Harder than the 1970s
The recent oil shock stemming from the Iran‑Strait of Hormuz crisis is reverberating across Asia more intensely than the 1970s oil crises. Jet fuel in Singapore has doubled, prompting airlines to trim May schedules by 10‑15%, while Japan’s subsidies only...
China Eases Fuel Export Ban for Select Asian Buyers
Important development: China has given state-owned refiners the green light to export some gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel to a handful of regular customers (in Asia), signaling the country is effectively easing an earlier ban on shipments.
The EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement Is Finally Happening
After more than two decades of negotiations, the EU and Mercosur bloc reached a provisional interim trade agreement that took effect on May 1. The pact creates a trade zone encompassing roughly 700 million consumers, lowering tariffs on a range of goods...
Oil Surges to Wartime Highs as US Eyes Iran
Screaming Red Headline on Bloomberg *OIL HITS WARTIME HIGH ON REPORT US EYING IRAN MILITARY OPTIONS June Brent futures (green) have doubled since the beginning of the year December Brent Futures (blue) set a new all-time high. https://t.co/MdXjetPtqJ
Pentagon Backs Lynas to Restart Heavy Rare Earth Production Outside China
The U.S. Department of Defense has partnered with Australian miner Lynas Rare Earths to restart heavy rare earth separation in Malaysia, backed by a $96 million purchase agreement and $258 million in Pentagon funding. The move aims to cut reliance on China...
Nigeria Rolls Out $92 Billion Offshore Crypto Oversight Framework
Nigeria's government released a White Paper outlining a $92 billion offshore crypto oversight framework, seeking to bring the country's fast‑growing virtual‑asset market under formal regulation. The plan promises tighter supervision, broader tax collection and greater investor confidence, while critics warn enforcement...
Where Do Thailand-China Relations Stand in 2026?
Thailand’s ties with China deepened in 2026 as high‑level visits, booming Chinese consumer brands and joint infrastructure ambitions reinforced a pragmatic partnership. The Bangkok International Motor Show saw BYD outpace Toyota, while Thailand’s “land bridge” rail project looks to Chinese...
UAE Reserves at $285B; March Data Will Test Stress
Counterpoint: the UAE ended February with USD 285b in fx reserves. The first real indicator of stress will come when the Emirates releases data (soon I expect) on end March reserves 1/ https://t.co/eO790Q1e0x
DRC Launches $100 Million, 20,000‑Man Mining Guard Backed by US and UAE
The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a $100 million, 20,000‑person Mining Guard, financially backed by the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The force, slated to be fully deployed by 2028, aims to protect the country’s cobalt, copper and other...
Taiwan’s Stock Market Surpasses Canada, Becomes World’s Sixth‑Largest at $4.47 Trillion
Taiwan’s equity market eclipsed Canada to become the world’s sixth‑largest by market capitalisation, climbing to $4.47 trillion after a 35% gain this year. The jump reflects soaring demand for AI‑linked stocks and the outsized rise of chipmaker TSMC, which now accounts...
Indian Corporate Bond Issuances Falter as Yields Climb to 7% in Late April
Indian corporates are trimming bond offerings after yields on the 10‑year benchmark rose to about 6.98% in late April. State‑backed issuers SIDBI and NABARD fell short of their targets, reflecting heightened caution amid West Asia tensions.
First Quantum Minerals Posts $196 M Q1 Loss as Copper Market Pressure Deepens
First Quantum Minerals posted a $196 million net loss for the first quarter, driven by lower sales volumes, a stronger Zambian kwacha and $144 million hedge losses. The company warned that ongoing Middle East tensions and rising fuel prices could lift copper...
Brics to Push for Intra-Currency Payments as ‘Immunity’ Against Western Clout
BRICS is evaluating a digital payments framework that would settle cross‑border transactions in member currencies, aiming to reduce reliance on the US‑dollar‑centric SWIFT system and mitigate sanctions risk. The proposal, spearheaded by India’s central bank, will be discussed at a...
Kazakhstan Sticking with OPEC
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry announced on April 29 that the country will maintain its current OPEC+ participation, rejecting calls to follow the United Arab Emirates’ imminent withdrawal. The decision comes despite repeated quota overruns and ongoing struggles to meet OPEC+ compensation requirements....
Australia and China Forge Fuel Alliance
Australia’s foreign minister Penny Wong announced a breakthrough agreement with Chinese state‑owned oil companies to supply jet fuel directly to Australian businesses. The deal emerged after intensive diplomatic talks between Wong and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, marking the first formal...
Carney ‘Strong’ in Year One, Now Must Deliver on Promises in Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first year was defined by a confrontational U.S. trade environment under President Donald Trump, prompting Carney to resist a rushed US‑Canada trade pact and maintain policy independence. He leveraged the tension to reset relations with...
NFTY: Structural Headwinds Persist (Still On Hold)
The First Trust India NIFTY 50 Equal‑Weight ETF (NFTY) tracks the Nifty 50 Equal‑Weighted Index but is currently on hold due to persistent macro headwinds. Elevated energy prices, recent oil‑price shocks, and a 3.8% two‑decade rupee depreciation are weighing on total returns....
Brazil's Cuts Rate by 25bp to 14.50% but Flags Deanchored Inflation and Middle East Risks
Brazil's monetary policy committee (Copom) unanimously cut the Selic benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 14.50%, matching the majority of economists' expectations. For the second meeting in a row, the board offered no forward guidance, tying any further moves...
Africa’s Aviation Growth Collides with Financing Barriers
Africa’s aviation market is booming as urban growth and the African Continental Free Trade Area drive passenger demand, but airlines struggle to secure affordable financing. Nearly $1 billion in blocked funds and higher lease costs force carriers to operate aging fleets,...
Meta Deal Reversal Deepens Split Between China and Silicon Valley
Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus has been ordered undone by Beijing, marking a rare reversal of a high‑profile cross‑border deal. The Chinese government’s demand underscores escalating geopolitical friction over advanced technology. As U.S. investors pull back from...
Europe Braces for Jet‑Fuel Shortage as Middle‑East Tensions Threaten Summer Travel
Europe's aviation sector is confronting a looming jet‑fuel shortage as Middle‑East geopolitical tensions disrupt supply routes. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned reserves may only last six weeks, while airlines such as Lufthansa and easyJet are already cutting flights and...
India’s M&A Boom Persists in 2026, Driven by Investor Confidence
India’s merger‑and‑acquisition market remained robust throughout 2026, with inbound capital from the United States and the Middle East offsetting global headwinds. Stability in policy and a growing appetite for warranty‑and‑indemnity insurance are helping the country outpace other emerging economies.
UAE to Leave OPEC+, Cutting 13% of Cartel Capacity and Shaking Oil Markets
The United Arab Emirates announced it will withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership and removing roughly 13% of the cartel’s production capacity. The exit gives Abu Dhabi freedom to lift its output beyond...
Kompas VC Launches $187.5M Fund with Region‑sensitive Strategy Amid Global Fragmentation
Kompas VC announced a €160 million ($187.5 million) second fund designed to navigate a world split into three economic spheres. The European firm will target early‑stage physical‑goods startups with checks of €3‑5 million, betting that a region‑sensitive playbook can deliver venture‑scale returns despite...
RWC Asset Advisors Dumps $47.5 M of MercadoLibre Shares, Raising Questions on Latin America Ad Spend
RWC Asset Advisors (US) LLC sold its full 24,608‑share position in MercadoLibre for an estimated $47.47 million, ending a stake that made up 9.4% of its assets under management. The exit comes as MercadoLibre’s stock slides and its advertising arm faces...
Trump's Real Plan: It Was Never Just About Iran
In this episode Amber Duke examines three major stories: the UAE’s departure from OPEC, which she frames as a strategic pivot toward the United States and Israel to counter Iran and China’s influence; the controversial $8.7 million federal funding of the...
In Conversation with Treasurer Jim Chalmers
In this 41‑minute interview, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers outlines his long‑term economic philosophy: steering Australia through frequent global shocks by building a "fourth economy" powered by clean energy, technology and social mobility. He warns that mismanaging this transition could deepen...
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As the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Continues, a Food Crisis Looms
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded, cutting roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day and straining global supply chains. Vitol’s CEO warned that even a rapid reopening would still drain about one billion barrels from the market. The disruption has...
The Global Economic Impact From the Iran Conflict
The IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% from 3.4% as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pushing oil prices toward $100‑$110 a barrel. In its adverse scenario, world growth could slip to 2‑2.5% with inflation edging...
Current Growth Trajectory Paves Way for India to Be a Developed Nation by 2047: Jeffrey D Sachs
Renowned economist Jeffrey D. Sachs told a FICCI event that India could become a developed nation by 2047 if its current growth trajectory continues. He urged New Delhi to maintain a non‑aligned stance, avoiding participation in the US‑led Quad and steering...
Invest $100 in Emerging Market Solar Projects
Today on Volts: Want to invest a little money in renewable energy projects in the emerging economies where they're most needed? Thanks to "Regulation A" (don't ask), a company called Energea can accept consumer investments as low as $100 in...
Russia Eyes Mali Lithium While China Guards Its Interests
Watching the Mali situation to see if Russia decides to muscle in the lithium sector there although China will look after its in-Mali interests .
India Opens Automatic FDI Route for Chinese Investors Up to 10% Stake
On March 10, 2026, India’s Union Cabinet amended Press Note 3 to permit investors from land‑border countries, chiefly China, to hold non‑controlling stakes of up to 10% through an automatic route. The change aims to boost start‑up and deep‑tech funding...
1997 UAE‑OPEC Paper Disproves Current Media Narratives
My first paper on the UAE and OPEC was published in 1997. The analysis from back then debunk most of what you’re hearing in the media today.
China Threatens EU over “Buy European” And Cyber Rules
China to EU: We’re going to need you to make substantial changes to your proposed “Buy European” and cybersecurity rules, or else face the consequences. https://t.co/gGBr0Rq5nh
IFC Report Says Morocco’s Private Sector Holds Back Growth, FDI at 1.3% of GDP
The International Finance Corporation’s latest report finds Morocco’s private sector is failing to unlock its full potential, keeping GDP growth near 3% and foreign direct investment at only 1.3% of GDP. The analysis points to a split between large exporters...
US Iran Invasion Derails Expected Fed Rate Cuts
Fed rate cuts were on the cards. But then the U.S. invaded Iran. Now the outlook is very different. https://t.co/Hlv6G6KO9D
China's EV Subsidies Favor Domestic over Imported Components
China also has made an art out of local content requirements (i.e. "made in China") -- remember no imported car or imported battery ever qualified for China's EV subsidy list ... 1/2
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Flags Imminent Global Bond Crisis
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned at Norway’s sovereign wealth fund conference that soaring government debt worldwide could trigger a bond market crisis. He cited geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility and widening deficits as risk drivers, and said the market...
China's Overinvestment Fuels Tech and Infrastructure Success
My latest piece for Carnegie, in which I argue that the story of Chinese systematic overinvestment is fully consistent with the seemingly contradictory story of its technological achievements and great infrastructure. https://t.co/YkSsd4R8s5
Goldman Sachs: Non‑US Economies Face Greater Middle East Trade Risk
"Other Economies Are Much More Exposed to the Disruption of Trade with the Middle East Than the US" - GS https://t.co/ITX9QcNTWV
Stalled Iran Peace Talks Push Brent Above $112, Drag Asian Stocks Lower
Oil prices rose to around $112 a barrel after Iran‑war peace negotiations stalled, while Asian equity markets posted mixed but overall weaker performance. The deadlock keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, raising energy costs for import‑dependent economies such as Japan.
Google Invests $15 Bn in 1 GW AI Data Centre in Andhra Pradesh, Sparking India Data‑centre Race
Google announced a $15 bn investment to construct a 1 GW artificial‑intelligence data centre on 600 acres near Visakhapatnam, with Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu laying the foundation stone. The project anchors the state's ambition to reach 6.5 GW of digital capacity...
West Asia War, Weak Monsoon Pose Downside Risk to Growth, Says Finance Ministry
India’s finance ministry warned that the ongoing West Asia conflict and a potentially weak monsoon pose upside inflation risks and could dampen growth. Crude oil prices have hovered near $115 a barrel, feeding higher energy costs that may be passed...