Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
China is intensifying a diplomatic campaign in Paraguay, offering all‑expenses‑paid tours of Chinese cities to lawmakers and journalists to showcase its economic might. The outreach aims to persuade Paraguay’s political class to abandon its long‑standing recognition of Taiwan, its last South American ally, in favor of Beijing. Opposition figures such as Leidy Galeano and Roya Torres report that the trips highlighted advanced health‑care, infrastructure and trade opportunities, while trade data show Chinese imports reaching a record $6 billion in 2025. Paraguay’s ruling Colorado Party remains divided, with President Santiago Peña publicly reaffirming support for Taipei despite growing internal pressure.
The US‑Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly a fifth of global oil flows and pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel. The surge in oil and LNG prices is spilling into gasoline,...
Heineken announced it will intensify its focus on India, calling the country the world’s biggest untapped beer market. The brewer, which controls United Breweries and the Kingfisher brand, already commands close to 50% of Indian beer sales. It cites structural...
Iran has stated it will allow tankers through the Strait of Hormuz - but only for shipments paid for in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. The dollar is THE standard currency of the fossil fuel trade. Iran didn’t just announce...
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*. https://t.co/upeUqKge1T
Chinese tech magnates, including the founders of TCL and Xpeng, announced plans to double their outbound investment, targeting the Middle East and Latin America. The pledge comes as the US‑Israel conflict with Iran escalates and Washington intensifies pressure on Venezuela....
One-off or sign of easing? Two tankers transporting LPG (think the butane canisters) have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the last few hours on the way to India. The crossing happened after gov-to-gov talks between Tehran and New Delhi....
Hong Kong’s upcoming five‑year plan proposes making the Sino‑Indian partnership a strategic pillar. The proposal calls for extending visa‑free entry for Indian nationals, leveraging the Indian diaspora for scholarships and AI talent, and offering tax incentives to attract Indian firms...
The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting at UTCC outlined three Middle‑East war scenarios, estimating that a prolonged, wide‑scale conflict could shave 2.31 percentage points off Thailand’s GDP. In the worst case, energy‑cost burdens would rise above 200 billion baht, exports could...
The U.S. Trade Representative announced Section 301 investigations into 16 countries, including China, and separate probes into 60 economies over forced‑labor concerns. In response, Chinese officials warned they could reinstate rare‑earth export restrictions and halt soybean purchases if Washington proceeds with...
The Inter‑American Development Bank is backing the Bi‑Oceanic Corridor—a 2,300‑mile road and rail link from Brazil to Chile—with a $200 million loan for the critical Paraguay segment. The corridor, slated for completion in late 2026, promises to shave roughly two‑and‑a‑half weeks off...
FTSE Russell plans to reclassify Vietnam from a frontier market to the secondary‑emerging category, a move that will trigger substantial index‑fund inflows. Analysts estimate up to $5 billion could be redirected into Vietnamese equities once the change is implemented in September. Retail...
Cyprus, currently holding the EU presidency, has moved from a neutral position to actively opposing the removal of sanctions on Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov, citing historic disputes with Turkey. The shift follows a letter from Turkish President Recep Erdoğan to Slovak...
At a Long U.S.–China Institute distinguished lecture on Feb. 23, 2026, Professor Yao Yang argued that China’s reform‑and‑opening period effectively concluded in 2018, ushering a new era focused on manufacturing expansion and technological self‑reliance. He outlined domestic policy shifts—including anti‑corruption drives,...
India and the United Kingdom are set to bring their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) into force by mid‑April, just a month after the announcement. The deal grants duty‑free access for 99% of Indian exports to the UK market...
India’s imports from China have decelerated sharply, rising only 87.8% in FY2015‑25 versus a 618% surge in FY2005‑14, while exports to China accelerated to a 38.3% year‑on‑year gain in April‑January FY2024‑25 compared with a 13.8% import rise. The slowdown is...
Four years after the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom has turned civil nuclear exports into a robust geopolitical tool. The company now leads global reactor sales, offering VVER‑1200 and VVER‑1000 plants financed up to 90% by Russian state...
Microsoft announced a multi‑year push to accelerate AI adoption across Africa, pledging to train three million people through partnerships with schools and universities in key hubs such as South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Morocco. The company also struck a deal...
Africa faces a $2.8 trillion financing gap for climate action by 2030, yet ample capital exists within the continent’s savings pools and sovereign wealth funds, plus global yield‑seeking investors. The article argues that fragmented markets prevent this capital from reaching needed...
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
OK, I suppose we should admit the White House was right, and, all along, they did have a plan to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bomb Kharg Island.
Atlantic Council senior fellow Lichfield was quoted in a Bloomberg piece highlighting how governments are insulating their economies from the fallout of the Iran‑Israel conflict. He noted that nations are bolstering strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying supply chains, and employing financial...
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of...
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
The United States announced a 30‑day suspension of sanctions on Russian crude that is currently at sea, aiming to cushion the economic repercussions of the war in Iran. The temporary relief covers roughly 100 million barrels of Russian oil in transit,...
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Four years after Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has withstood Moscow’s destabilisation campaign and moved forward on its EU accession path. The country secured candidate status in 2022 and opened accession negotiations in 2024, while President Maia Sandu won...
India and Pakistan are a fascinating A/B test in modernization. After India threw off its socialist yoke, things really started accelerating. 2000 onward it’s a rocket ship. https://t.co/jBihDMGtl9
This is a critical point -- China's JV requirements worked b/c China had to approve investments (so it had leverage) generally speaking & b/c China had relatively high tariffs (25% on autos) and an undervalued exchange rate so there was a...
Vietnam has tightened restrictions on raw rare‑earth exports to force domestic refining, positioning itself as a niche superpower in critical minerals. Meanwhile, the United States is building a broad coalition of more than 50 partners through initiatives like the Critical...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to elevate India to a fully developed economy by August 15, 2047, marking the nation’s centennial of independence. Over the past twenty years, India has posted strong GDP growth, while recent years have seen an unprecedented surge...
Chief Investment Officer Sadiq Adatia of BMO Global Asset Management says India’s growth momentum remains strong despite short‑term energy shocks and medium‑term trade challenges. He cites a growing middle class, expanding infrastructure, and a new EU‑India trade agreement that could...
US Defence Secretary Hegseth says there is "not clear evidence" that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor announced that India and the United States are on the brink of finalising a critical minerals agreement, with a major public announcement expected within months. The pact is designed to shore up supply chains for advanced...
European leaders, including Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, condemned the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on stranded Russian oil. They argue the move will replenish Moscow’s war chest and undermine the G7’s unified pressure on Russia...
European freight forwarders are reducing exposure to the United States amid unpredictable tariff policies and turning to South‑East Asia for new import opportunities. The region, bolstered by the broader “China+1” diversification, shows steady growth, with Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam leading...
China enacted a sweeping ethnic‑unity law that codifies assimilation and expands legal tools to counter Western influence, while a U.S. report highlighted the concentration risk of its nuclear warhead storage at Base 67. In parallel, Beijing widened its ban on BHP...
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Burundi has signed a three‑year memorandum of understanding with U.S. miners KoBold Metals and Life Zone Metals to explore lithium, cobalt, copper and other critical minerals. The deal, witnessed in Washington, DC, includes a commitment to digitise Burundi’s geological data by July...
In this episode, Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower examine how the war‑induced oil shock is pressuring emerging market (EM) economies with rising energy costs, stagflation risks, and declining asset prices. They discuss the extraordinary policy...
Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for India’s FY 2025‑26 GDP growth to 7.5%, a slight uptick from the 7.4% projected in December. The agency also lifted its outlook for FY 2026‑27 to 6.7% from 6.4%, citing strong domestic demand and double‑digit credit...
China’s economy is shifting from labor‑intensive manufacturing to capital‑intensive high‑tech sectors, creating fewer traditional jobs. The Ministry of Human Resources reports over 200 million “flexible” platform workers—about 27 % of the national labor force and 43 % of urban workers. These gig workers...
Macro Pros @Hedgeye remain short Indonesia in $IDX terms Down another -3.0% overnight, collapsing -13.1% in the last month alone #GoAnywhere https://t.co/Ny66xrqpv3
The Nifty 50 slipped more than 2% on March 13, leaving the index 12% below its January 5 peak of 26,373. The correction is fueled by rising crude prices amid the US‑Iran war, a weakening rupee, persistent foreign institutional outflows and heightened macro‑economic...
Conflict between the US‑Israel coalition and Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, forcing commercial vessels to reroute through the Indian Ocean. At least 18 ships have been attacked and dozens have disabled AIS, while Iran permits Chinese‑flagged traffic,...
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
"I wouldn't say business is as usual, but the Israeli tech economy keeps on ticking." Here is half of my CNBC interview with Sara Eisen on Israeli resilience, Iran risk discount for Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and much more....
Analysts at Bank of America and S&P Global argue that accelerating AI and robotics adoption in China, South Korea and Japan can cushion the economic drag of rapidly ageing societies. These economies already boast robot densities far above the global...
Thailand’s commerce ministry has created a high‑level task force to counter new USTR investigations under Section 301, which target excess capacity in autos, auto parts, machinery and rubber. The United States highlighted a $51 billion trade surplus in Thailand’s favour, up from...
