Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
India announced a fast‑track approval process for Chinese investments in selected sectors, reducing clearance time to 60 days. The new rules apply to electronics, capital goods, solar cells and battery components, but require Indian residents to hold majority stakes. The government also removed the previous blanket approval requirement for deals with up to 10% Chinese ownership, easing restrictions that followed the 2020 Galwan clash. Additional categories will be added based on domestic manufacturing priorities.
The European Union accepted an asymmetrical trade deal with the United States, lowering its residual tariffs while the US maintains high reciprocal tariffs. The arrangement prevents a retaliatory trade war and keeps European import costs modest. Analysts argue the deal...
South Korean and Ghanaian leaders met to forge concrete cooperation on security and critical minerals. They outlined Korean investment in Ghana's mining sector, targeting lithium, cobalt and bauxite, while planning joint maritime and cyber‑defense drills. The agreement includes technology transfer,...
India announced a relaxation of its foreign investment rules, allowing Chinese firms to invest in a limited set of sectors after a six‑year freeze that began in 2020. The policy shift caps Chinese ownership at 49 percent in approved industries...
Brazil and Saudi Arabia launch a critical minerals working group and seek Saudi funding for Brazil mapping. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/brazil-saudi-arabia-to-cooperate-for.html
VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMBX) trimmed Gulf exposure as Iran‑related tensions heightened, yet bond prices in the region stayed flat, creating a weak risk‑reward profile. The fund now leans toward commodity‑exporting issuers in Latin America and Sub‑Saharan Africa, which...
Dubai’s economy has shifted from oil reliance to a diversified, high‑growth hub, posting 3.6% GDP growth in 2023 and 4% in 2024. The UAE’s free‑zone model, tax competitiveness and regulatory certainty have attracted global firms and AI‑focused investors such as...
There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
Inside the G7 (and the G20) most countries are absolutely livid with the Trump administration's attack on Iran, but don't mistake their indignation with a desire to let Iran take the global economy hostage via oil. G7/G20/OECD nations will respond...
Investment in MENA startups slowed sharply in February 2026, with total capital deployed falling 42% month‑on‑month to $326.6 million across 62 deals. The UAE remained the dominant ecosystem, contributing $162.8 million from 23 companies, while fintech led sector funding at $94.7 million. Early‑stage...
I was interviewed two weeks ago by Mark Sobel at OMFIF about the outlook for the Chinese economy. It just came out. https://t.co/d6LFlYcl14
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
The article warns that the economic shock from the Israel‑U.S. attack on Iran—dubbed Gulf War III—exposes how fragile global trade is when shipping routes are disrupted. It argues that a military move against Taiwan would create a similar, if not larger,...
"Beijing is not allergic to spending. It is just not confident about spending that gives households too much autonomy over how to use the money." --@ZichenWanghere Very good read on the need for rural pension reform, among other things https://t.co/HMmzkQ9ZMn https://t.co/sEMkJotQeP
South Korean military and regulators are treating the escalating Middle East conflict as an immediate business risk, especially after strikes near Korean units in Lebanon and the UAE. The Cheonghae Unit east of Oman has heightened surveillance and is now...
The opinion piece warns that President Donald Trump’s recent military strike on Iran has embedded a costly “risk tax” across all investment portfolios. By deploying hard power, the United States has heightened geopolitical uncertainty, forcing markets to price a higher...
Policymakers and experts convened to examine how critical minerals shape the Brazil‑US economic partnership. Brazil’s abundant rare‑earth and battery‑grade mineral reserves are increasingly vital to the United States’ energy‑transition agenda. The discussion highlighted supply‑chain vulnerabilities, especially reliance on China, and...
Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader and Brexit Party founder, has reversed his earlier stance opposing a military strike on Iran, now indicating he would back a UK‑led intervention. The shift follows heightened tensions after Iran’s recent missile tests and...
India’s Finance Ministry has asked Parliament to approve a ₹1 lakh crore Economic Stabilisation Fund aimed at cushioning the economy from market turbulence caused by the war in West Asia. The fund is part of the second batch of Supplementary Demands for...
Global equity markets began 2026 on a firm footing despite heightened geopolitical tension, with emerging‑market equities delivering an 8.85% return in U.S. dollar terms. In contrast, U.S. growth stocks slipped 1.51% while small‑cap and value segments posted solid gains. Bond...
It's a while since the last IEA emergency oil release, so I put together a briefing note on how it works in practice as it follows a strict technical and diplomatic protocol. The below is a (simplified) guide to follow...
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war could trigger a catastrophic shock to global oil markets if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The conflict has already halted up to 20% of world petroleum trade, pushed Brent...
China is rapidly expanding its south‑south trade, with the Belt and Road Initiative now responsible for roughly 52% of its foreign trade. Between 2007 and 2023, south‑south commerce grew from $2.3 trillion to $5.6 trillion, accounting for over a third of global...
Marex warns that a three‑month shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would erode the average current‑account balance of Gulf states by 3.8% of GDP. Bahrain, lacking alternative export routes, would see its surplus flip to a 3.2% deficit, while Saudi...
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it will condition passage through the Strait of Hormuz on Arab or European nations expelling U.S. and Israeli ambassadors, while simultaneously barring oil exports to the United States and its allies. The move signals...
Colombian right‑wing primaries saw Paloma Valencia capture over 5.5 million votes, eclipsing both Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella. De la Espriella’s early lead proved a prediction‑market bubble lacking grassroots support, and his momentum may soon fade. The governing Pacto Histórico secured legislative majorities...
Albert O. Hirschman's 1945 work *National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade* was largely ignored when published, but its analysis of how states engineer trade for strategic advantage is resurfacing amid today’s intensifying geoeconomic conflict. The book argued that...
India’s fiscal‑deficit ratios have been revised upward for FY 2022‑23 to FY 2024‑25 after the government adopted a 2022‑23 GDP base year. The new series shows deficits of 6.7 % in 2022‑23, 5.7 % in 2023‑24 and 4.9 % in 2024‑25, compared with earlier estimates...
Saudi Arabia has replaced veteran investment minister Khalid Al‑Falih with former HSBC banker Fahad Al‑Saif amid mounting pressure to boost foreign capital. Foreign direct investment last year accounted for just 2.1% of GDP, far short of Vision 2030 targets, while government...
U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III highlighted that more than 500 American companies operate in South Africa, collectively employing around 250,000 people. He emphasized the strong presence of tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Google and Visa, which...
The Mexican Economy Ministry and the U.S. Trade Representative announced the formal launch of the joint review of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, set to begin on March 16. While Mexico and the United States have been holding informal talks for...
A new working paper reveals that India’s GDP figures have been systematically misestimated over the past two decades. Growth from 2005 to 2011 was likely understated by roughly 1–1.5 percentage points, while the 2012‑2023 period appears overstated by about 1.5‑2...
Raghuram Rajan argues that India’s service‑led growth model—built on software, consulting and urban services—remains resilient despite AI’s rise. He explains how services have become embedded in tradable goods, turning back‑office functions into Global Capability Centres that command a strong cost...
Recent surveys reveal a majority of fund managers believe US technology companies are overinvesting in artificial intelligence. Analysts point to soaring R&D budgets and hiring spikes that outpace clear revenue prospects. The sentiment reflects growing skepticism that AI hype translates...
As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former...
G7 head of state and/or government will hold a video call Wednesday to discuss the impact of the Third Gulf War, particularly around the “energy situation” and the Strait of Hormuz. The call is scheduled for 2pm GMT. I doubt this...
U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an unconditional demand that Iran surrender to end the joint U.S.-Israeli operation launched on Feb. 28, which targets Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The demand follows Trump’s earlier endorsement of a Kurdish incursion into Iran...
“… Right now it looks like the Gulf - especially the UAE - is spending something like $28 in defense for every $1 Iran spends on offense […] that's not a long-term equation anyone wants to …”
As the U.S. becomes more transactional and predatory, Norway and Iceland are now considering EU membership to add a bit more security. #eu #geopolitics https://t.co/ziNWQ6FQIW
India has amended Press Note 3, easing foreign‑investment rules for all nations sharing a land border, including China. The change removes the mandatory pre‑approval requirement for investments from companies with shareholders in these countries, though approval remains required for any sector....
Pakistan says it has launched a naval operation to protect its “energy lifelines.” In some ways expected: oil importing nations in Asia may step in protecting their own tankers. (Importantly, Pakistan has a defence treaty with Saudi Arabia, and buys...
The Iran War is shifting toward civilian infrastructure. Israel is targeting fuel depots around Tehran, & Iran struck a desalination facility in Bahrain. Further escalation could carry serious economic & humanitarian consequences. Access Peter's 3/11 Q&A https://t.co/mlYf8sohf4 https://t.co/Azea9LqQlh
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
INDIA GAS SHORTAGE 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG away from industrial users to households LNG supplies to petrochemical and power plants are being curbed The crisis in the Middle East is throttling India’s LPG and LNG supply https://t.co/ujn00XTSnf
We're in a goldilocks environment for EM commodity exporters like Brazil and South Africa. Brent has fallen significantly, which is good for risk appetite. But it's still 20% above where it was before hostilities. That's good for EM commodity exporters......
Trump yesterday said war will be over soon. Oil tumbled. As I signaled over the weekend, better to steer clear of the frenzy around oil and focus on EM differentiation. That theme's only been traded for a few days and...
As strikes shake the Middle East and oil prices soar, what are the global ramifications of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran? 🎥 Tune in LIVE as @TimOBrien discusses with @JavierBlas and @MarcChampion1 Tuesday, March 10 @ 8:30 am EDT...
The comments from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser on the East-West pipeline, the last (and only partial) line of defence of the oil market against the Strait of Hormuz disruption (other than a SPR release) For background, my @Opinion column from...
