Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Foreign Companies Are Making Billions Off Australia’s Gas. It’s Time that Changed
Australia’s gas export boom has generated roughly A$149 billion (≈US$98 billion) in profits for multinational firms over the past four years, yet tax contributions remain minimal. A parliamentary inquiry is pushing a 25% export tax that could raise about A$17 billion (≈US$11 billion) annually and encourage more gas sales to the domestic market. Current Petroleum Resource Rent Tax and generous deductions allow companies to pay little tax, while new gas‑code rules from 2027 will require producers to reserve supply for Australia. Advocates cite Norway’s 78% petroleum profit tax as a model for capturing resource wealth.
Taiwan’s KMT Offers US an Off-Ramp From War with China
Taiwan’s opposition party, the Kuomintang, sent leader Cheng Li‑wun to Beijing for a week, where she met President Xi Jinping and framed Taiwan’s identity as culturally Chinese. Cheng highlighted shared heritage and proposed limited cross‑strait cooperation, signaling a diplomatic shift away...
State‑owned Firms Boost Investment 24%, Spur Growth
1/2 Yicai: "The 100 companies owned by China's central government raised their fixed-asset investment by 24 percent to more than CNY1 trillion last quarter from a year ago, playing an important role in driving the country's overall economic growth." https://t.co/a1CUMZDz2A
IFLYTEK Positions Singapore as Regional AI Hub at GITEX
iFLYTEK, a Chinese AI and speech‑technology leader, reaffirmed Singapore as its Southeast Asian command center at GITEX Asia 2026. The Singapore office, launched in 2024, has sold more than 10,000 hardware units and generated roughly RMB 200 million (about $28 million) in revenue,...
China, Russia Offer Discounted Gas, Bypass USD, Challenge Qatar
China and Russia building new natural gas pipelines to replace Nordstream. Asian countries being courted to buy natural gas at 40% discount to market rates. Won’t be priced in USD. Permanent shift from Qatar which will take years and billions...
The Clock Is Ticking on the EU’s Next Budget
The European Union is racing against a shrinking timeline to seal its next long‑term budget, a €1.8 trillion plan (about $1.95 trillion) that will shape spending through 2030. EU leaders convene in Cyprus amid fierce debates over new EU taxes, debt repayments...
India Seen to Line up Three Buffers for Its Economy Amid the Iran Storm: Fitch Unit
Fitch’s BMI unit says New Delhi will roll out three policy buffers to shield the Indian economy from fallout of the US‑Iran conflict. The first focuses on securing energy and critical inputs, invoking the Essential Commodities Act and curbing exports of...
India to Attract Major Share of EQT's $15.6-billion Asia Fund: EQT India Head
Private equity firm EQT says India will continue to capture the largest slice of its newly raised $15.6 billion Asia fund, roughly a third of total capital. The firm’s co‑investment model multiplies available equity by 1.6 times, expanding the deal‑making pool. Recent...
US Tightens Grip on Iraq over Iran-Linked Groups, Halt Dollar Flows over Militia Activity
The United States has halted a roughly $500 million cash shipment to Iraq’s central bank and paused portions of its security‑cooperation program, signaling heightened pressure on Baghdad to curb Iran‑backed militias. The cash, part of the dollar shipments that channel Iraq’s...
JPMorgan Sees China Property Stabilising, Boosting Outlook for Equities.
JPMorgan sees China’s property market approaching a turning point as price declines slow and secondary‑home values rise in dozens of cities. The bank argues that stabilising housing conditions could act as a tailwind for Chinese equities, helping them outperform other...
Magyar Wants to Put the Austro-Hungarian Empire Back on the Map
Prime Minister‑elect Péter Magyar, who defeated Viktor Orbán, is positioning Hungary to revive Central Europe’s influence by deepening ties with Austria and other neighboring states. He proposes merging the Visegrád Group with the Slavkov format to create a unified Central...
2026-04-22: Strait of Hormuz Blockade Disrupts Oil, Medical Supplies, and Global Negotiations
A magnitude‑6.8 offshore earthquake struck the Sanriku coast on April 20, prompting a tsunami warning and a week‑long aftershock advisory covering 182 municipalities. While damage remains moderate, the event has disrupted rail, courier services and forced school closures, creating a...
China Cyber‑spies Western Defense Firms, Dutch Intel Warns
China’s Cyberspying Targets Western Defense Industry, Dutch Intel Chief Says—Military intelligence report warns China poses a growing threat, alongside Russia @kimmackrael @DanMichaelsWSJ https://t.co/cu728ldZmp https://t.co/cu728ldZmp
War Risk Insurance Costs Surge for Middle East Offshore Projects
Rising war‑risk insurance premiums for vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz are inflating costs on critical offshore oil and gas projects across the Middle East. The surge follows recent attacks that have heightened geopolitical tension and disrupted logistics. Contractors now...
Indians Slam New Zealand Minister for ‘Butter Chicken Tsunami’ Remarks: ‘Outright Racism’
New Zealand’s NZ First party has condemned a pending free‑trade agreement with India, labeling it a “butter chicken tsunami.” The deal, hailed by the government as a once‑in‑a‑generation opportunity, would open New Zealand firms to India’s massive domestic market and allow...
China and India’s Solar Factory Surge Powers Global Clean Energy Leap by 2025
Solar generation in China and India surged 30% in 2025, pushing clean power growth to 887 TWh—outpacing global electricity demand growth of 849 TWh. The boom, driven by record‑high solar‑module manufacturing, helped renewables reach a 33.8% share of world electricity for the...
Russia Targets South Caucasus as Iran War Shifts Regional Power Balance
Russia is intensifying diplomatic and economic overtures toward Azerbaijan and Armenia, exploiting the fallout from the Iran war. The push follows a joint Russian‑Azerbaijani statement on the December 2024 downing of flight 8243, which killed 38, and comes as Baku...
Cambodia’s RCEP Exports Jump 9.5% Jan‑Aug 2025, Driving $6.6B Trade Surge
Cambodia exported $6.63 billion to RCEP members from January to August 2025, a 9.5% increase over the same period last year. The surge lifts total RCEP‑linked trade to $26.35 billion, highlighting the pact’s role in expanding the kingdom’s export base and attracting...
As FPIs Continue to Sell, Outflows Likely to Rise Before Inflows Revive
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) dumped roughly $6.0 billion of Indian equities in the first half of April, with the financial‑services sector absorbing the bulk of $2.3 billion in outflows. Overall foreign inflows this fortnight were only $161 million, the weakest level since January 2025,...
Iran and Russia Boost March Oil Exports Over 5% as Asian Demand Rises
Iran and Russia lifted March crude oil exports by over 5% compared with the prior 12‑month average, as India and other Asian buyers increased purchases. The surge undercuts former President Donald Trump's sanctions strategy and pushes Russian crude above West...
General Catalyst Publishes First Quarterly Review, Highlights $43B Portfolio and $5B India Bet
General Catalyst released its first‑ever quarterly review, laying out the health of its $43 billion ecosystem, a $5 billion commitment to India, and a $380 billion valuation for Anthropic’s Series G round. The review also flags a broken software‑buyout model, discusses a potential Summa...
China’s Shipyards Secure Wave of Oil Tanker Orders as Iran War Drives Demand
China’s shipyards are capitalizing on the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and tightened global crude transport. Shipping firms are scrambling for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to bypass the chokepoint, prompting new orders from...
Russia Stops Flow of Kazakh Oil to Germany
Russia has restarted oil deliveries to the EU via the Druzhba pipeline after a months‑long interruption caused by infrastructure attacks. Simultaneously, Moscow halted Kazakh oil shipments to Germany, officially citing technical constraints but widely seen as geopolitical retaliation. Kazakhstan says...
Iraq Turns to Risky Overland Routes as Oil Exports Collapse
Iraq’s oil exports have slumped about 80 % to roughly 1.2‑1.3 million barrels per day after the Strait of Hormuz became effectively closed. The government, which depends on oil for up to 95 % of its budget, is confronting a severe fiscal shortfall....
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Wednesday 22 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Donald Trump announced an extension of the U.S.‑Iran cease‑fire while maintaining the Strait of Hormuz blockade, keeping geopolitical risk high. Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel, closing near $98.5 as oil markets reacted to the cease‑fire move. Meanwhile, global...
The Strait of Hormuz Closure Forces a Choice: Ration Oil Now or Pay a Steep Price Later
The Strait of Hormuz closure after the U.S. counter‑blockade has removed roughly 13% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude to about $95 a barrel and draining strategic inventories. Daily production outages now exceed 13 million barrels per day, with an...
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TRADE DYNAMICS: China’s Promise of Duty-Free Access to SA Fruit Is a Decade-Long Gamble
South Africa’s trade ministry signed a framework with China that promises duty‑free entry for South African fruit, but most agricultural products will only benefit after a ten‑year lag. An earlier protocol already opened the Chinese market to five stone‑fruit varieties,...
Global Energy Markets Are on the Verge of a Disaster
On April 17, Brent crude plunged 10% to $90 a barrel after Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open." Hours later Iran attacked an Indian tanker, prompting a modest 5% rebound the following day. Despite the...
EU Attempts to Outmaneuver Iran Rollercoaster with Emergency Energy Plan
The European Commission will unveil an emergency energy package aimed at cushioning the EU from the cascading effects of the Iran‑Israel conflict. The draft proposes temporary subsidies covering up to 70% of wholesale electricity costs and 50% of extra fuel...
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Blockade Amid Uncertainty over Peace Negotiations
President Donald Trump announced via social media that the U.S. will extend both the ceasefire and the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz until Iran submits a peace proposal and talks conclude. The extension follows a pause in negotiations,...
The Nanoscale Engineering Behind China's Grip on the Green Energy Value Chain
China’s dominance in green‑energy hardware stems from aggressive nanoscale engineering, not just subsidies or scale. By mastering nanostructured silicon wafers, ultra‑thin TOPCon layers, and 2‑5 nm carbon coatings on lithium‑iron‑phosphate cathodes, Chinese firms now control over 80% of solar panel production...
IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Reveal Debt Stress as China Demands Quota Reform
The IMF and World Bank’s April 13‑18 spring sessions underscored soaring debt distress across emerging economies and a $20‑$50 billion loan demand, while China’s central bank chief called for IMF quota reform and tighter oversight of advanced economies. The dual pressure...
Iraqi Dinar Surges to 154,500 per Dollar Amid Political Deadlock
The Iraqi dinar rose sharply to 154,500 per U.S. dollar on Tuesday after the Coordination Framework failed to name a prime‑minister nominee. The move reverses a post‑ceasefire rally and underscores how political uncertainty is pressuring Iraq’s emerging‑market currency.
Thailand Secures $13.5 B Emergency Loan as Middle East Conflict Hits Finances
Thailand’s cabinet approved an emergency decree to borrow ฿500 billion (about $13.5 billion) to shore up public finances strained by the Israel‑Iran conflict. The move comes as the 2027 budget is limited to a 0.2% spending increase, highlighting the country’s tightening fiscal...
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Iran Talks on Hold because of Trump’s Blockade
Iran has refused to send its negotiating team to Islamabad, demanding that President Donald Trump lift the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before talks resume. Trump, who hinted negotiations could restart soon, has kept the blockade in...
Why China’s Exports Will Keep on Rising
China’s export momentum is accelerating, with semiconductor shipments leading the surge. In the first quarter of 2026, Chinese firms shipped transistors—particularly IGBTs—up 26% in dollar terms versus the same period a year earlier. The growth spans diverse markets, from motorbike...
Ethiopia Risks UK Courts over Failed Bond Restructuring
Ethiopia’s sole $1 billion international bond restructuring collapsed after official creditors rejected a draft deal, citing comparability of treatment concerns. The bondholder steering committee responded with a pre‑action letter, warning it will seek enforcement in English courts in May. Negotiations on...
India’s Infrastructure Investments to Surge 50% Despite Global Uncertainties: Crisil Ratings
Crisil Ratings forecasts India’s infrastructure spending to jump 45‑50% over the next two fiscal years, reaching roughly $277‑$289 billion by FY2026‑27. The surge will be spread across roads, renewables, data centres, smart‑metering, green hydrogen and real estate, with renewables adding 50‑55 GW...
The White Swallow or the Next Puppet? Radev's Bulgaria at the Crossroads
Former air force chief Rumen Radev’s newly formed "Progressive Bulgaria" party clinched a parliamentary majority in a surprise election, toppling the entrenched pro‑European elite. The author contends that Bulgaria’s EU and NATO membership has deepened systemic corruption, demographic decline, and...
GCC Nations Turn Net Drains on Offshore Dollar Liquidity
The UAE's request for a swap line -- presumably after a big fall in the central bank's $285b in reserves in March/ early April -- confirms that the GCC countries are now a net drain on offshore dollar liquidity. The Saudis...
China's Oil Wells at Risk Without Immediate Iranian Flow
Iran is without revenues, but way more important is that the oilwells that China relies on might be permanently damaged if oilflows does not start again within a short time
Stagflation Dead Ahead! | Chance Finucane
Chief Investment Officer Chance Finucane of Oxbow Advisors warns that the oil price shock from the Iran conflict is igniting a fresh inflation surge that could drag growth into stagflation. He believes markets are already pricing a near‑term de‑escalation, leaving...
Libya's Central Bank Funded Tripoli Assault Through Abu Dhabi
Eastern Libya’s Top Money Man - or how Libya’s central bank financed the assault on Tripoli by way of Abu Dhabi. The Sentry article featured in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/zY0VaxASFE https://t.co/unp3sIz4If
Trump’s War Tactics Alienate Key Asian Allies
My take on the Trump's war strategy on @MarioNawfal: "Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and India are under the gun. The US-Israeli war has imposed massive costs on them. Now they are pivoting away from the US." TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW...
Russia Is Making Bank on Trump’s Iran War
Russia’s oil earnings surged to a two‑year peak in March as the Trump‑led war with Iran pushed global crude prices up more than 50 %. Daily fossil‑fuel revenues hit roughly $777 million and tax receipts topped $8 billion for the month, driven by...
China May Follow Iraq Model for Gulf Deals
Wait for things to shake out and then make deals with Gulf states on the other side, leveraging its own offerings? Iraq, where China is a dominant player in the upstream, maybe an instructive precedent for China ...
Hyundai and TVS Motor Sign Joint Deal to Launch Electric Three‑Wheelers in India
Hyundai Motor Company and TVS Motor Company have signed a Joint Development Agreement to co‑develop and commercialize electric three‑wheelers in India and beyond. The partnership blends Hyundai’s human‑centric design with TVS’s proven electric platform, aiming to expand sustainable last‑mile transport...
India and South Korea Launch $720 M Fund and Education Roadmap to Boost EdTech Collaboration
India and South Korea announced a comprehensive education partnership and a INR 6,000 cr (≈$720 M) Unicorn Growth Fund to back AI‑focused technology firms. The deal targets student exchanges, joint AI research and digital learning platforms, positioning both nations as rivals to China...
Iran-Israel Conflict Triggers $50B Oil Shock, Slashing Emerging Market Growth Forecasts
The Iran‑Israel/US war has knocked more than 500 million barrels of crude offline, pushing Brent above $100 and diesel to $5.61 per gallon. The shock has slashed IMF growth forecasts for emerging Asia to 4.9% and forced the UAE to seek...