Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Luminous Ventures Raises $733M for Dual‑Currency Early‑Stage Funds
Luminous Ventures announced the final close of its sixth USD early‑stage fund at $460 million and the first close of its third RMB fund at 1 billion yuan ($146.7 million), bringing total commitments to more than $733 million. The dual‑currency raise, the largest of its kind in China this year, underscores renewed global LP appetite for Chinese tech startups.
Marcos Issues Negative List for Foreign Investments
President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos issued Executive Order 113, unveiling the Philippines' 13th regular foreign‑investment negative list. The order replaces the 2022 list and delineates activities fully closed to foreign capital (List A) and those with capped foreign equity (List B). Key sectors...
Positioning Between Relief and Risk
A two‑week conditional cease‑fire between the United States and Iran has lifted the immediate tail‑risk of the Middle East conflict, causing global equities to rally and oil prices to retreat. First Metro Securities frames the situation as a macro‑transmission story...
FX Settlement Reveals China’s $35B March Currency Purchases
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March even with all the turmoil in the oil market. That's down...
Supply Disruptions and Energy Security
War in Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 8% of global oil flow, the largest disruption since the 1970s. In the first month of the conflict, West Texas Intermediate rose roughly 50%, a muted response compared...
Saudi Arabia Scraps Tourism Funding In Vision 2030 Shake-Up
Saudi Arabia announced a major pivot in its Vision 2030 plan, scaling back Public Investment Fund financing for flagship tourism megaprojects such as Neom and the Red Sea Destination. The PIF will now channel capital toward artificial‑intelligence infrastructure and AI‑focused companies....
Beyond the Rupture: Where Are China-Japan Relations Heading?
Since November 2025, Sino‑Japanese relations have plunged to a decade low after Japan’s new prime minister Takaichi Sanae’s Taiwan remarks, prompting China to impose travel bans, seafood import bans, and heightened military activity. The crisis deepened with a knife‑wielding Self‑Defense Forces...
Limited Chip Exports Preserve US Edge, Fuel China’s Future AI
Jensen's arguments against chip export controls didn't make a ton of sense to me, but here's a steelman: selling a limited quantity of n-1 generation chips to China could undercut their domestic industry, while retaining a 10x American compute advantage. Totally...
China’s Taiwan Calculus Ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Taiwan’s opposition KMT chair Cheng Li‑wun on April 10, 2026, timing the encounter with the 47th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act to shape the agenda of the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit. Beijing will use the summit to...
Russia's Tight Money Stifles Growth Amid War‑Driven Inflation
“Russia’s tight monetary policy has landed it in an unlikely club of countries usually comprised of economies battling debt distress or runaway inflation, laying bare the economic costs from the war in Ukraine beyond the swelling military-spending bill… The sheer scale...
Intertek Expands Indian Solar Footprint with Ahmedabad Lab Acquisition
Intertek Group plc has purchased the assets of a solar photovoltaic laboratory in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, from Mitsui Chemicals India. The move adds ISO‑17025 accredited testing, BIS and IECEE CB Scheme certification capabilities, and deepens Intertek’s presence in western India as...
IMF Lifts Ghana's 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.8% as Inflation Eases and Debt Falls
The International Monetary Fund raised Ghana's 2026 GDP growth projection to 4.8% from 4.6%, reflecting a stronger‑than‑expected rebound in 2025. The revision follows a 6% expansion, a plunge in inflation to 3.2%, and a debt‑to‑GDP ratio of 45.3% at year‑end,...
CBRT Deputy Governor Hatice Karahan Vows Cautious Policy Amid Middle East Crisis
CBRT Deputy Governor Hatice Karahan told the IIF Global Outlook Forum that the bank will adopt a cautious, data‑driven approach as the Middle East conflict creates a global supply‑side shock. She confirmed the pause on rate cuts in March and...
WEF Report Says Middle‑Income Economies Will Drive Nearly Two‑Thirds of Global Growth by 2030
The World Economic Forum released a new analysis showing middle‑income economies are set to generate almost 66% of global GDP growth through 2030, with Asia alone accounting for more than half. The report flags AI adoption, debt burdens and climate...
Behind the Bluster, Donald Trump Desperately Needs a Peace Deal with Iran. Here's a Solution | Rajan Menon
Former President Donald Trump faces mounting pressure to avert a renewed US‑Iran conflict after a failed Islamabad negotiation and a self‑imposed naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Professor Rajan Menon outlines a four‑point framework: recognize Iran’s right to limited...
Be in the Know. 21 Key Reads for Thursday…
China’s Q1 GDP outperformed forecasts, driven by a surge in infrastructure spending, while U.S. investors posted the largest quarterly inflow into Hong Kong and China equities in three years. In the aerospace sector, Boeing announced a hiring push of over 100...
India Imports LNG From US, Oman, and Nigeria in March as Qatar, UAE Supplies Dry Up
India’s LNG imports fell 20% year‑on‑year to 1.2 million tonnes in March 2026 after Qatar and UAE cargoes stopped amid escalating Middle‑East tensions. The shortfall, equivalent to about 47.4 MSCMD of gas, was partially offset by higher shipments from the United States, Oman and...
AWS Plans $430 Million Data Center in Navi Mumbai, India
Amazon Web Services is set to spend $429.8 million on a new data‑center campus near Taloja in Navi Mumbai. The 49‑acre site will house six structures, including four seven‑story data‑center buildings, delivering a total capacity of 473 MW. AWS acquired the land for...
Q2 Strategic Income Outlook: Everything Everywhere All at Once
The first quarter of 2026 was marked by a cascade of geopolitical shocks—from Venezuela’s president’s arrest to a U.S.-Israel strike on Iran—while AI breakthroughs drove hyperscaler capital expenditures to an estimated $720 billion. Private‑credit markets showed stress, with default risk projected...
On My Mind: The $ Is Dead, Long Live the $
The article challenges the growing narrative that the U.S. dollar is in rapid decline, arguing that its dominance remains underpinned by deep capital markets, institutional credibility, and the sheer scale of the U.S. economy. Recent Deutsche Bank research linking Middle‑East conflict...
Chevron and Shell’s Venezuela Deals Vindicate Trump Strategy
Chevron announced two new agreements to expand its presence in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, while Shell is set to finalize a major deal later this week. Both moves are direct outcomes of the Trump administration’s decision to oust Nicolás Maduro, launch...
Trafigura Signs $1bn Oil-Backed Financing Deal with Gabon to Boost Liquidity
Global commodities trader Trafigura has signed a $1 billion oil‑backed financing agreement with the Republic of Gabon, providing upfront liquidity in exchange for the country's profit‑oil over seven years. The deal makes Trafigura the exclusive buyer of Gabon's post‑cost crude, with...
Dollar Dominance Is Surviving the Iran War – Just About
The Iran‑Israel war has not eroded the U.S. dollar’s global dominance, as the greenback rose about 2% against a basket of currencies and U.S. asset markets performed relatively well. The 10‑year Treasury yield climbed 35 basis points to 4.3%, a...
Asia Daily: April 16, 2026
In mid‑April 2026 Asia saw heightened geopolitical tension and economic maneuvering. China erected a 352‑meter floating barrier at Scarborough Shoal and doubled its AI‑for‑science supercomputer to 60,000 domestically‑made Sugon chips. Japan announced a roughly $10 billion framework to help regional partners...
Barings Opens Abu Dhabi Office to Expand Middle‑East Investment‑Banking Franchise
Barings announced the opening of a new office in Abu Dhabi's ADGM on April 16, 2026, marking its latest push into the Gulf. The move is designed to deepen relationships with sovereign wealth funds, family offices and other institutional investors,...
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Warns a Six‑to‑twelve‑month Hormuz Shutdown Would Trigger a Global Recession
Citadel founder Ken Griffin told the Semafor World Economic conference that a six‑to‑12‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz would make a global recession unavoidable. He linked the risk to oil prices above $100 a barrel and the chokepoint’s role...
Middle East War Spikes Oil Prices, Straining Emerging Market Budgets and Fuel Subsidies
The war in the Middle East has triggered the biggest oil‑supply disruption in history, sending Brent up over 60% and forcing Jamaica’s government to abandon a $4.50‑per‑litre fuel cap, a move that could cost the island $80 million in lost revenue....
Asian Equities Surge as Iran‑war Risk Fades, Nifty Jumps 500 Points
Indian benchmarks surged Thursday, with the Nifty 50 up about 500 points to 24,385 and the Sensex gaining 0.7% to 78,647, as optimism over a US‑Iran ceasefire trimmed war‑risk premiums. The rally spread across Asia‑Pacific, lifting Japan's Nikkei and Hong...
China to Raise $2.3 Billion via Hong Kong Dim Sum Bond Sale, Largest Since 2023
China's Ministry of Finance announced a 15.5 billion‑yuan ($2.3 billion) sovereign bond offering in Hong Kong on April 22, the biggest dim‑sum issuance since 2023. The sale comes as global investors seek refuge in Chinese assets amid heightened US‑Iran tensions, pushing yields lower...
World "Must Brace for Tough Times" Says IMF Chief Georgieva
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Middle‑East conflict is already dampening global growth, revising the IMF’s outlook from 3.4% last year to 3.1% by 2026 and flagging a worst‑case drop to 2%. She highlighted soaring energy and...
Global Imbalances Are Back. Who’s to Blame?
Global imbalances are resurfacing, echoing the pre‑2008 “saving‑glut” era when Asian economies amassed massive dollar reserves while the United States ran a large current‑account deficit. Economists now observe that Asia’s trade surpluses remain in the multi‑trillion‑dollar range, keeping the dollar...
The World Waits for a Climbdown
ING’s Carsten Brzeski outlines a base‑case scenario where Iran‑U.S. talks extend 2‑4 weeks, leading to a limited blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before traffic resumes. Oil prices are projected to dip below $90 per barrel by year‑end, easing some pressure...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% Amid Tech Surge
China collapse fans will not be pleased.... China's Q1 2026 GDP just came in at 5.0% YoY — beating expectations, matching full-year 2025, fastest pace since Q2 2025. Services surging, semiconductors up 20.6%, industrial robots up 24.4%. Yes, property still a drag. Yes,...
Russia Seeks Escape From Steepest Three‑year Contraction
Russia looks for a way out of its sharpest economic contraction in three years https://t.co/qV7fi62bZB
Middle East Conflict Driving Wealth Flows Back Toward Europe, Says Pictet
The Iran conflict is prompting high‑net‑worth investors to move capital from Gulf hubs toward Europe, especially Switzerland, seeking political stability and diversification. Pictet managing partner Laurent Ramsey told Bloomberg that clients are spreading custody across multiple jurisdictions to reduce concentration...
Iran's Job and Inflation Data Drive Oil Analysis
The key known unknown (to me) to analyse oil is the true state of the Iranian economy: jobs and inflation. I hear lots of tales, but I have little confidence on any. Reporting from inside Iran is extremely difficult. Economic damage...
FT Live Q&A on U.S. Financial Dominance & Trump Challenges
Neither of us are really "experts" but Toby and I are doing one FT's live "Ask An Expert" sessions for readers with questions about America's global financial dominance and Trump-shaped challenges to it. You can check it out here:...
EBID Sets Ambitious Investment Drive as West Africa Growth Strategy Takes Shape
The ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) unveiled a new five‑year Growth, Resilience and Optimisation strategy at its 24th AGM in Accra, aiming to boost investment across West Africa through 2030. The plan prioritises infrastructure, agriculture, energy and digital...
US Blockade Shift Signals War De‑Escalation, Not Market Overreach
The most common comment I hear from policy makers at this week's IMF/WB meetings is that markets are way too early in pricing de-escalation. Disagree. It's clear the US wants wants to end this war, hence the shift to a...
US‑Iran Talks Lift Latin American Commodity Exporters
Now that Iran and the US are negotiating, fear that war may escalate out of control is leaving markets. That's lifting EM oil and commodity exporters, especially across LatAm. Good news for Colombia, Argentina and Brazil. A replay of 2022...
How to Build a $1bn African Investment Firm
In a candid interview, Richard Okello, co‑founder of Johannesburg‑based Sango Capital, explains how his firm grew to manage just under $1 billion in assets since its 2011 launch. He frames African investing as a high‑speed boat ride through choppy waters, emphasizing...
Stuck in US‑Iran Standoff: No Fighting, No Peace, No Oil
At risk of repeating myself, still in the "no-fighting, not-peace, and (certainly) no-oil" phase of the US-Iran war.
Bullish Narrative Around India’s Economy at Odds with Struggling Rupee
The Indian rupee has risen about 1.5% since March 27, making it Asia’s top performer, but the rebound masks deeper strains from an Iran‑war‑driven energy shock that is widening the current‑account deficit and stoking inflation. The Reserve Bank of India responded...
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
IMF, Global Investors See Indonesia as Bright Spot, BI Says
The International Monetary Fund and global investors have singled out Indonesia as a bright spot in the world economy, citing its resilient macro‑economic fundamentals. Bank Indonesia highlighted that the country has kept its fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP through...
China's Economy Grows Faster than Expected Despite Iran War
China’s first‑quarter GDP rose 5% year‑on‑year, outpacing the 4.8% consensus and meeting the upper bound of its newly‑set 4.5‑5% growth target. The rebound was anchored by a manufacturing surge, while property investment stayed depressed. Export growth decelerated sharply to 2.5%...
Japan Remains Most Trusted Power in Southeast Asia Despite Military Build-Up: Survey
A Singapore‑based ISEAS‑Yusof Ishak Institute survey shows 65.6% of Southeast Asian respondents still view Japan as the region’s most trusted power, despite a modest dip from last year. Tokyo is pushing a one‑year timeline to amend its pacifist constitution, formally...
The EU–India Deal Is Not Enough. India Needs Investment – Now
The EU and India signed a long‑awaited free‑trade agreement that cuts tariffs on cars, wine, pharmaceuticals and digital services. However, the pact omits any binding commitments on manufacturing investment, leaving a critical gap for India’s need to attract foreign direct...
China Trims US Treasury Holdings Amid Rising Debt Supply as Global Ownership Hits Record
China’s central bank modestly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings in February, continuing a multi‑year trend of diversifying its foreign‑exchange reserves. The cut came even as total foreign ownership of U.S. sovereign debt reached an all‑time high, buoyed by private investors...
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...