Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
How Strategic Investment Is Redefining Economic Statecraft
Funds of funds (FoFs) are emerging as strategic tools for governments to conduct economic statecraft. By pooling capital to invest in venture funds rather than directly in individual firms, FoFs can reinforce innovation ecosystems and steer resources toward critical technologies. When well‑designed, they enhance supply‑chain resilience and limit adversarial influence; poorly structured FoFs, however, risk reproducing the inefficiencies of politically captured investment programs. The article argues that disciplined FoF models could redefine how nations secure economic and technological advantage.
Singapore IPO Market Raises $967 Million in Q1 2026 Amid Global Slowdown
EY's latest Global IPO Trends report shows Singapore raised $967.1 million from three listings in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp rebound after a year with no IPOs. The surge was driven by a marquee REIT offering, even as Southeast...
Azerbaijan Joins $1 Billion China‑ASEAN Investment Platform to Boost Emerging Market Funding
Azerbaijan has become the latest member of a $1 billion China‑ASEAN investment platform, adding its sovereign wealth fund to a pool that already secured $520 million. The platform, backed by China Galaxy Securities and China Investment Corporation, aims to channel long‑term capital...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Holds USD/Manat at 1.7 Manat per Dollar
On April 15, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) announced that the official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar remained steady at 1.7 manat per dollar. The decision, reported by Trend.az, also listed rates for the euro, Turkish lira and...
Iran Conflict Signals Next Phase of Global Cycle
Most people look at wars as isolated events. I look at them as part of a Big Cycle that has repeated many times, so for me watching what is happening is like watching a movie I've seen many times before. What we’re seeing...
ECB Faces Uncertain Outcomes over Iran
Nagel says the ECB between baseline and adverse outcomes on Iran https://t.co/A2MX9mA2pD via @flacqua @jrandow https://t.co/4PwzutyUl5
Japan Vows $10bn to Help Southeast Asia Procure Oil Amid Iran War
Japan announced a $10 billion (≈¥1.6 trillion) “Power Asia” initiative to help Southeast Asian nations procure crude oil amid the Iran‑related conflict that has spiked global prices. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the funding, channelled through state‑backed banks such as JBIC and...
One Belt One Road Lending Surges in 2025
Reports of the end of China’s One Belt One Road lending were very premature - 2025 was a record year for new commitments. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/KIBnk4491s
From Salsa to Silence: How America First Is Emptying Cuba’s Beaches and Livelihoods
U.S. sanctions under President Trump’s “America First” policy have sharply restricted fuel and financial flows to Cuba, causing a cascade that has grounded flights and crippled the island’s tourism sector. International arrivals fell more than half in February 2026 compared...
How Big Oil Is Cashing in on Iran War - The Latest
The world’s 100 largest oil and gas companies generated more than $30 million per hour in unearned profit during the first month of the US‑Israeli war on Iran. Crude prices averaged $100 a barrel in March, driving an estimated $23 billion windfall...
Analyzing Iran War's Next Steps and Global Ripple Effects
Come for @RanaForoohar's take on what happens next with the Iran war. Stay for @LukeGromen's response on the far-reaching implications. https://t.co/mXUaZa7w04
Kroenig Interviewed on CNN on the Blockade of the Straight of Hormuz
Atlantic Council Vice President Matthew Kroenig appeared on CNN on April 14 to discuss the United States’ decision to block the Strait of Hormuz. He framed the move as a strategic deterrent aimed at curbing Iran’s hostile behavior in the...
Yellen Says ‘No Alternative’ to Dollar, Urges US-China Cooperation for Sake of the World
Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong that a U.S.-China decoupling would erode the benefits of global trade and division of labour. She emphasized the dollar’s unrivaled reserve‑currency advantages, citing deep capital markets...
Bangladesh at the Crossroads: Renewables or Imported Fuel Chaos
Bangladesh, which imports roughly 60% of its energy, is feeling the squeeze of soaring global oil, coal and LNG prices triggered by the Israel‑Iran conflict. The newly elected government faces a looming $4.8 billion jump in annual fuel‑import costs and a...
CFOs Express Growing Alarm over Geopolitical Instability
A recent McKinsey survey of 150 CFOs shows geopolitical instability now tops their risk concerns, with 37% flagging it as a primary growth threat. Trade policy disruptions are also rising, cited by 32% of respondents, while 62% plan to closely...
India’s Trade Gap Narrows as Middle East War Hits Shipments
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $20.67 billion in March, well under the $28.5 billion forecast, as both imports and exports slipped amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Imports fell 6.5% year‑on‑year to $59.59 billion, while exports dropped 7.4% to $38.92 billion. The conflict in the...
Why the US Needs the PROSPER in the Pacific Act
U.S. Rep. Ed Case is urging Congress to pass H.R. 6619, the PROSPER in the Pacific Act, which would restore duty‑free treatment for Pacific Island imports similar to the pre‑2020 Generalized System of Preferences. The legislation targets critical vulnerabilities exposed by rising...
China’s Africa Strategy Is Shifting and Iran Conflict Will Speed It Up
China is pivoting its Africa strategy from resource extraction to investment, centering the effort in Hunan Province’s “Hunan Model.” The model, formalized through the China‑Africa Economic and Trade Deep Cooperation Pilot Zone and a dedicated exhibition, streamlines logistics, free‑trade zones,...
Retail Adoption of Dollar Stablecoins Fuels Hyper‑Dollarization
It will be foreign sovereigns seeking to de-dollarize while their citizens seek to dollarize. place your bets...
War Will Drain the Gulf’s $6trn Treasure Chest
Six Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds now manage over $5 trn in assets, up from $3 trn in 2021, and have deployed more than $430 bn since 2021 across AI, private credit, sports and tech. The ongoing regional war threatens to erode...
South Korea’s Harder Line on Israel Amid Energy Shock
South Korea’s President Lee Jae‑myung publicly criticized Israel, prompting a sharp diplomatic clash and the closure of the Israeli embassy in Seoul. The dispute coincided with Washington’s decision to redeploy Korean air‑defense systems to the Middle East, heightening alliance tensions....
Trump Urges Xi; China Denies Arming Iran
Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping in a letter not to give Iran weapons, and Xi responded that China was not supplying Tehran https://t.co/60vaNXzDS1
US Naval Blockade of Iran Sparks Global Trade Shock
Washington announced a full naval blockade of Iranian ports, cutting all seaborne commercial trade. The move follows stalled peace talks in Pakistan and has pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel while sending Middle East‑to‑Asia shipping rates to six‑year highs....
Monitoring Turkey: Geopolitics Compounds Macro Challenges
Turkey’s economy remains under strain as inflation expectations were lifted to 27.5% for 2024, driven by higher energy costs and a tax‑adjusted petrol price regime. The government’s fiscal gap narrowed to a 12‑month deficit of 2.2% of GDP—about $75 bn—thanks to...
Trump’s Blockade Threatens Fragile US‑China Détente
Trump’s Blockade Risks Upending an Emerging Détente With China In a thinly veiled critique of the war in Iran, China’s leader said the world could not risk reverting “to the law of the jungle.” Not very thinly veiled.... https://t.co/LPtfynf5Up
China Surges as US Scientific Talent Drains Away
As Trump scares off US scientists, China is racing ahead From mapping the seabed to AI innovation, Beijing is becoming the world’s scientific superpower But don't worry, US has "3-6 month lead" in AI.... https://t.co/tuVxbpXhjY
China's Rare‑Earth Export Ban Heightens US‑China Mineral Tensions
China announced a ban on rare‑earth exports to the United States for military use, while simultaneously pulling over $150 billion of liquidity, slashing U.S. Treasury holdings to $694 billion and amassing $343 billion in gold. The move deepens a strategic clash over critical...
Amid the Hormuz Crisis, Indonesia Rewrites Its Energy Playbook
Indonesia’s government responded to the Strait of Hormuz disruption with a two‑pronged strategy: domestic fuel subsidies and demand controls were kept steady while the president launched an intensive diplomatic tour of Japan, South Korea and Russia. The visits produced concrete...
Google Secures 1 GW Power‑Distribution Licence for Vizag Data‑Center in India
Google has been granted a 1‑gigawatt power‑distribution licence by Indian regulators for a new data‑center complex in Vizag, Andhra Pradesh. The approval enables the tech giant to source and manage electricity directly, underscoring its push for renewable‑heavy infrastructure in emerging...
Joint Statement From Finance Ministers on the Middle East: 15 April 2026
Finance ministers from major economies issued a joint statement welcoming a newly announced cease‑fire between the United States, Israel and Iran. They stressed that ending hostilities is essential to restore safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and to limit...
Kazakhstan Projects 4.6% Growth in 2026 as IMF Lowers Global Forecast to 3.1%
The IMF reduced its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% but kept Kazakhstan on a 4.6% growth path for the same year, with 4.4% expected in 2027. The Central Asian nation’s outlook underscores divergent trajectories among emerging economies as...
Indian Rupee Rises to ₹93.15 per Dollar on Falling Oil and Weak Dollar
The Indian rupee strengthened to ₹93.15 per U.S. dollar in early trade, gaining 20 paise on lower crude prices and a weaker dollar. The move followed President Donald Trump's comment that a second round of U.S.-Iran talks could occur within...
China’s $4.5 Billion Headache: The Niger-Benin Pipeline and the Limits of Non-Interference
In February 2026 China warned its citizens after rebel attacks on the CNPC‑operated Niger‑Benin pipeline, a $4.5 billion project designed to lift Niger’s oil output to 90,000 barrels per day and recover a $400 million loan. The 1,950‑km line, linking Niger’s Agadem...
Three Elements Trump’s ‘Pax Silica’ Needs to Succeed
The State Department launched Pax Silica, an AI supply‑chain coalition with eleven signatory nations, aiming to build a trusted partner network that can rival China’s dominance. Unlike prior efforts, the initiative groups members by specific AI‑related capabilities and places the...
Ramaphosa Issues Detailed Reply to Musk on Investment Rules
President @CyrilRamaphosa has given a COMPREHENSIVE response to @elonmusk following his social media posts about South Africa’s requirements for foreign investment…. https://t.co/WviFIHT03F
How the US-Israel War on Iran Is Affecting African Economies
The US‑Israel blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked a key oil and fertilizer corridor, driving fuel prices up 30‑70% across Africa and as high as 150% in Somalia. East African and some North African nations that depend on...
EU Grapples with Whether to Embrace Chinese Investment
Excellent piece by @barneyjopson @leahyjoseph @ian_c_johnston about a very real dilemma faced by many EU governments: should Europe welcome Chinese investment? https://t.co/IWJghsXaVY via @ft
Iran Seeks Crypto Payments for Hormuz Shipping
The rising demand for a global neutral settlement layer: Why #Iran demands crypto for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. @LexSokolin via Substack: https://t.co/mpcYqrZEYa #stablecoins #digitalcurrencies https://t.co/Wqv0NnFjQs
New ETF and ETP Listings on April 15, 2026, on Deutsche Börse
Deutsche Börse added the WisdomTree True Emerging Markets UCITS ETF (WEMT) to its Xetra platform on April 15, 2026. The fund tracks mid‑ and large‑cap stocks in countries that meet a multi‑stage “true emerging markets” definition, excludes firms linked to controversial weapons, and...
Blockade Shift Signals Market Relief Amid De‑escalation
Big thanks to @johnauthers for including me in today's @business write-up. The shift to a blockade is good news for markets because it signals a shift away from war and possible catastrophic escalation to economic countermeasures. That's good news... https://t.co/hh4YxAnK3P
Africa’s Refinancing Stress Returns as Global Liquidity Tightens Again
The United Nations is urging African nations to fast‑track the African Financing Stability Mechanism (AFSM) as global liquidity tightens amid higher interest rates and the Middle‑East conflict. African countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and South Africa face hard‑currency bond maturities...
Blockades Spark Panic and Capital Flight, Not Just Trade Halt
A successful blockade isn't just about stopping oil exports. It's about instilling panic in the population and causing capital flight. That's what happened in Russia, when fear of an embargo caused capital flight in 2022. The US has lots of...
US Warns China Will Lose Access to Iranian Oil
Escalation either way: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says China will no longer be able to get oil from Iran.
Kyodo News Digest: April 15, 2026
Japan announced a $10 billion aid package to help Asian nations secure crude‑oil supplies amid soaring prices, while deepening a strategic partnership with Poland that expands economic and security cooperation and reaffirms support for Ukraine. The IAEA reported that North Korea’s...
China’s Growth Likely Beats IMF Forecast, Hits 4.5‑5%
1/2 SCMP: "The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast. China – the world’s second-largest economy – is now expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year." I, however, predict that China's GDP will grow this year by between 4.5%...
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Worldwide Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Chinese Deep‑Sea Vessels Log 800 Days Mining While Mapping Strategic Waters
Eight Chinese research vessels have logged more than 800 days probing deep‑sea mining sites while also cruising through strategically sensitive ocean corridors. The United States, eyeing polymetallic nodules as a way to cut reliance on China, is racing to approve...
Chinese Airlines Reshaping Global Aviation Routes
The Geopolitics of the Skies – Why Chinese Carriers are Redrawing the Global Aviation Map https://t.co/0ZmuFlEOCE
CBRE Forecasts 70,000 New Hotel Rooms in India by 2030, Market to Reach $31 Bn
CBRE’s latest outlook predicts Indian listed hotel operators will add more than 70,000 rooms by 2030, swelling the sector’s value to roughly $31 bn. The forecast follows a 2.5‑fold jump in 2025 deal activity and signals a shift toward premium, asset‑light...
IMF Chief Economist Warns Iran War Could Force Painful Central Bank Tightening Worldwide
IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that a drawn‑out war in Iran could force central banks to tighten monetary policy far more aggressively than after the pandemic, risking deeper economic pain. The warning comes as the IMF cuts its 2026 global...