Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP expanded 1.3% quarter‑over‑quarter in Q1 2026, implying an annualized growth rate of about 5.3%, slightly above the 4.8% consensus. The modest gain was driven by an 8.9% year‑over‑year jump in infrastructure spending, while consumer‑driven retail sales rose only 2.4% and car sales fell 17% amid a steep housing‑price decline. The data also reflected a downward revision of last year’s first‑half performance, making the current figures appear stronger. However, rising debt among local and provincial governments raises questions about the durability of the stimulus‑led recovery.
UAE Ministry of Investment Visits China Merchants Capital to Deepen Strategic Investment Cooperation
On April 14, a delegation from the UAE Ministry of Investment met with China Merchants Capital (CMC) to deepen strategic investment cooperation between the two nations. CMC, a leading alternative‑investment platform of China Merchants Group, highlighted its focus on intelligent technology,...
India Overtakes US for Second Spot in Solar Growth
Market Share: While China remains the undisputed leader (accounting for over 60% of global additions), India is set to secure the #2 spot for yearly growth, overtaking the United States.
WEBINAR: UAE Projects Market 2026
The upcoming MEED webinar on 28 April 2026 will dissect the UAE’s projects market, reviewing 2025 performance and the value of work awarded year‑to‑date in 2026. Organisers will assess how the Iran conflict is reshaping supply chains, material costs, and war‑risk premiums...
PIF Backs Neom
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has officially added Neom to its six strategic ecosystems in the newly approved 2026‑2030 plan, reaffirming support for the $500 bn megaproject after a series of setbacks. The project’s outlook had dimmed following the postponement...
Russia Had to Spend an Extra $130 Billion to Buy Goods While Sanctioned, Analysts From NATO's Frontline Say
Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau estimates Russia has spent an extra $130 billion on alternative imports of Western goods between 2022 and 2025, equivalent to an annual $32.5 billion loss. The report adds that Russian export volumes in key commodities such as iron...
Iran War: What Does Tehran Want and Will It Get It?
In a televised discussion, Gideon Rachman and Brookings scholar Suzanne Maloney explore Tehran’s objectives in the ongoing Iran‑U.S. confrontation and the prospects for a negotiated settlement. They argue that Iran’s primary aim is to lift crippling sanctions, secure regional leverage, and...
Hopes Grow for a Breakthrough in US-Iran Talks as Pakistan Mediates
Pakistani officials, led by Army Chief Asim Munir, delivered a fresh U.S. proposal to Tehran on 15 April, hoping for a major breakthrough in nuclear negotiations. The talks focus on narrowing the gap between a five‑year and a twenty‑year enrichment freeze...
ICYMI - Reports that Iran Proposes Partial Hormuz Reopening for Ships via Oman Waters
Iran has signaled a willingness to let commercial vessels transit the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without attack, linking the offer to progress in US‑Iran negotiations. The proposal marks a shift from earlier hardline ideas such as transit...
Pakistan’s “Managed Failure”: What the U.S.-Iran Stalemate Means for India’s Oil Supplies & Inflation? OPED
Senior US and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for a 21‑hour dialogue that ended without a formal deal, underscoring a deliberate "managed failure" aimed at containing escalation. The venue choice, the absence of Israel, and divergent US‑Iran agendas highlighted the...
China's Q1 GDP Masks Weak Consumer and Investment Demand
China Q1 2026 real GDP is STRONG at 5%, but details show that consumption and investment are very weak. Nominal retail sales are soft at 1.7% for March and for the quarter it's only growing 2.4% nominally, which means REAL RETAIL...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
China Q1 GDP Beats Forecasts but Iran War Risks Loom
China’s economy expanded 5.0% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, outpacing the 4.8% consensus and accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter. Quarterly growth held steady at 1.3% QoQ, matching forecasts. Policymakers, however, cautioned that the escalating Iran‑driven oil shock adds external...
China Threatens Vague Retaliation on Foreign Firms Before Trump Summit
China Sharpens Retaliatory Tools Against U.S. Ahead of Trump Summit—Beijing responds to Washington’s trade pressure with broad but vague threats aimed at foreign businesses @ByChunHan @yoyominnie https://t.co/itS181EOEe https://t.co/itS181EOEe
Taiwan Emerges as Global Economic Powerhouse
Three facts worth storing in memory: -Taiwan’s stock market is now bigger than the UK’s -Taiwan is on track to be a larger source of US imports than China. -Eight of the world’s ten largest companies rely on Taiwanese (#9 & #10...
Asian Currencies Rise on Weak Dollar and AI‑Driven Export Surge, MUFG Says
MUFG’s senior currency analyst Michael Wan says Asian currencies have rallied as the US dollar weakened after the Iran conflict, buoyed by a sharp pickup in AI‑related exports. The bank continues to favor the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit, while...
China Beats Expectations with 5% Growth in First GDP Release Since Iran War
China reported a 5% year‑on‑year GDP expansion in Q1 2026, outpacing analysts’ forecasts. The growth came despite the broader geopolitical shock of the US‑Israel conflict in Iran, suggesting limited spillover to China’s economy. Policymakers see the result as a sign...
US Says Blockade Stopped Chinese Iranian Oil Purchases
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the blockade is believed to have halted Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, will not renew the Russian oil waiver, and stated that two Chinese banks received Treasury letters warning of potential secondary sanctions.
Iran Hardliners Rise After War, Raising Risks to Hormuz and Peace Prospects
Iran’s post‑war power shift has entrenched hard‑liners, notably Mojtaba Khamenei, within the political and security hierarchy, curbing prospects for diplomatic compromise. The regime’s crackdown on dissent has intensified, with more arrests and executions. Tehran now leverages control of the Strait...
China’s Outperformance Driven by Excess Liquidity Recycling
China’s outperformance is symptomatic of its liquidity glut, said @Trinhnomics , a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong. “That excess liquidity is being recycled into high-quality Chinese credit.” https://t.co/3rIShLlAgS
Cross-Border Flows, the Dollar Devaluation, and the Global Trade Rebalancing
Capital Flows researcher argues that modern money is created primarily through bank credit, not central‑bank printing, and that every financial asset is simultaneously a liability. He identifies two universal risks—duration risk from inflation and credit risk from growth—that price all...
INTERVIEW: The Steppe Challenger
Freedom Holding Corp, led by founder Timur Turlov, is leveraging its Nasdaq‑listed brokerage and a rapidly expanding super‑app to push beyond Kazakhstan into Europe and the United States. The app now serves 5.2 million users—about a quarter of Kazakhstan’s population—and has...
IMF Says India Will Remain Fastest‑Growing Major Economy in 2026‑27
The International Monetary Fund projects India will stay ahead of all other major economies in 2026 and 2027. The outlook rests on strong domestic consumption, a digital push and continued infrastructure spending. Analysts see the forecast as a catalyst for...
Iran War Live: Pakistan in Push for New Round of US-Iran Peace Negotiations
The White House expressed optimism about a new round of US‑Iran peace talks, prompting Brent crude to dip to $94.49 a barrel and WTI to $90.59. Pakistani army chief Asim Munir travelled to Tehran to broker a breakthrough, while a...
IMF the First to Improve Russia’s Growth Outlook on Iran War Windfall
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its 2026 growth projection for Russia to 1.1% annual GDP expansion, up from 0.8%, citing a windfall from higher oil prices triggered by the Iran‑war‑related energy price spike. The IMF expects the 2027 outlook...
Xi Meets To Lam and Lavrov; Wang Yi Calls for "Restoring Normal Passage” Through the Strait of Hormuz; Investment Approval;...
Xi Jinping met Vietnam’s General Secretary To Lam, accompanied by senior Chinese officials Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Cai Qi, Wang Yi, Yin Li and Wang Xiaohong. Xi emphasized defending the socialist system, “reform without changing direction, transform without changing color,”...
Pakistan Keeps Pushing for Peace
Pakistan hosted the latest round of U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad, marking the first high‑level face‑to‑face negotiations between the rivals in decades. Although the talks did not produce an immediate cease‑fire agreement, the event gave Islamabad a diplomatic win, boosting its...
EMXC: An Ex-U.S. Buy On Ex-China And Semiconductors
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) has been upgraded to a Buy as investors rotate capital out of China and U.S. friend‑shoring policies favor allied chip hubs. The fund’s portfolio is dominated by Asian semiconductor leaders—TSMC, Samsung...
US Confirms Russia, Iran Waivers Will Not Be Renewed
The United States announced Wednesday that the temporary waivers allowing the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil already at sea will expire after one more month and will not be renewed. The waivers, granted under sanctions‑relief programs, have enabled traders...
Allspring Acquires GIA Partners' Fixed‑Income Team to Boost Emerging‑Market Credit
Allspring Global Investments announced a definitive agreement to acquire the specialist fixed‑income investment team of GIA Partners, led by Eduardo Cortes. The deal, expected to close in early Q3, adds a multilingual credit team with four decades of emerging‑market experience...
Buffett Warns Wall Street of Market Risks as S&P 500 Drops 5% in March
Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, warned investors that market volatility and macro uncertainty could erode recent gains, after the S&P 500 closed March with a 5% decline. His comments, delivered in a CNBC interview, underscore concerns over the U.S....
DRC Chemical Shortages Threaten Copper and Cobalt Output, Prices Surge
A sudden shortage of sulphuric acid and sodium metabisulfite (SMBS) in the Democratic Republic of Congo has forced major miners to cancel orders and consider output cuts. The disruption, linked to shipping delays from the Iran conflict, could tighten global...
Emerging‑Market Index Surges Over 2% on Hopes Iran Conflict Will De‑Escalate
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped over 2% on Tuesday, near its pre‑war peak, as traders priced in a possible resolution to the Iran conflict. The rally lifted equities, currencies and sovereign bonds, reviving risk appetite for the region.
Think‑tank Proposes $8 Billion Renewable Plan to Break Cuba’s U.S. Energy Blockade
The Commonwealth think‑tank’s Transition Security Project says an $8 bn investment in solar, wind, hydro and bioenergy could meet 93% of Cuba’s power needs and end its dependence on imported fossil fuels, offering a model for the Caribbean amid a U.S....
Asia‑Pacific Stocks Rise on Wall Street Gains and Falling Oil
Asia‑Pacific exchanges opened higher on Wednesday, mirroring overnight gains in U.S. equities. The rally was underpinned by a drop in oil prices and growing optimism that diplomatic talks could ease tensions in the Middle East, factors highlighted by CNBC International.
Iranian Oil Return Could Shift Energy Markets Soon
If the US and Iran reach a deal — a big if — it’s fair to assume Tehran gets sanctions relief. If that includes oil sales — another big, although likely, if — then in a few months the energy...
Maximum Pressure Returns: U.S. Targets Shadow Fleet Tankers as Iran Oil Waiver Expires
The U.S. Treasury reinstated full "maximum pressure" on Iran by letting the 30‑day general license for stranded Iranian oil expire and sanctioning more than two dozen individuals, companies, and vessels tied to the Shamkhani shadow‑fleet network. The designations target a...
Russia Vows To 'Fill China's Energy Resource Gap' Amid Hormuz Crisis In Lavrov-Xi Meeting
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met President Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledging to increase Russian energy supplies to China as the Hormuz Strait crisis threatens oil flows. Lavrov said Moscow is ready to fill the resource gap that has emerged...
Bitcoin Climbs as Strait Tolls Pressure Gold Reserves
One emerging narrative resulting from the Iran conflict is that Iran will more or less control the Strait of Hormuz with a “toll booth” approach and that countries might pay those tolls in Yuan or crypto. Meanwhile, the exporting countries...
China’s Loan‑driven Industrial Policy Breeds Debt, Few Champions
Most of China's industrial policy is in the form of bank loans, not subsidies. Yes, you can lend to 100 companies, and 2 survive, and then you have 2 national champions. But you also have a mountain of bad debt on...
Iran Can Withstand Two Months without Oil Exports
Iran can sustain its current oil output of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day for about two months if exports are halted, according to consultancy FGE NextantECA. The U.S. blockade that began on April 13 blocks an estimated 2 million bpd from reaching China,...
War's Hidden Costs Hit Americans Irreversibly, Even After Ceasefire
The question that I get asked most often is: Even if the ceasefire holds, has the war already imposed large irreversible costs on Americans? So I made a video digging into these issues. The stakes may be much larger than you...
Rising Economic Pressure on Iran, China Faces Scrutiny
Economic pressure on Iran goes up. Also pressure on China to stop supporting Iran financially and military
US Sec 301 Probe: India Rejects Allegations, Requests for Terminations of Both Investigations
India has formally rejected the U.S. Trade Representative’s Section 301 investigations into alleged excess structural capacity and forced‑labour practices, demanding a negative determination and immediate termination. The Indian Ministry of Commerce argues the initiation notice lacks specific policy evidence and relies...
China Cuts African Tariffs, Contrasting US Stance on Rare Earths
China removing tariffs from Africa imports. The opposite of the US. And the rare earths?
Emerging Markets Surge as Yuan Hits 3‑Year High
While risk appetite has recovered sharply amid the Strait shutdown, emerging markets doing particularly well. While the EEM ETF has climbed (inverted below), the Chinese Yuan has climbed to a 3-yr high vs the Dollar - 254 days USDCNH below...
US CENTCOM Says Blockade of Iranian Ports Halts 90% of Sea Trade
U.S. Central Command announced that its naval blockade of Iran’s ports is fully operational, halting virtually all sea‑borne trade within 36 hours. The move, backed by more than 10,000 troops and dozens of warships, threatens a key conduit for world...
Blockading Ports Isn’t Strategy; It’s Self‑defeating.
2025: blockading American ports. 2026: blockading Iranian ports. Same move, different flag. If your grand strategy is just “less trade for everyone,” mate, that’s not chess. That’s flipping the board. https://t.co/Re8HN1bIye
Vietnam‑China Agricultural Trade Hits $20.9 Bn, Spurring Cold‑chain Logistics Investment
Bilateral agricultural trade between Vietnam and China rose to $20.94 bn in 2025, driven by a 41.1% jump in Vietnam’s exports to China. The surge follows 33 signed agreements, new protocols on product standards, and a joint push to expand cold‑chain...
China’s Tech Surge Marred by Waste, Looming Stagnation
"China’s High-Tech Drive in 10 Charts" https://t.co/SZXnkg9CHZ "There have been tremendous strides, but also great waste and failures, such that China’s economic growth is likely to continue to stagnate and decline." https://t.co/hH3Gu87F81