Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate steady at 5.25% on February 6, signalling a neutral stance. ICICI Bank Global Markets expects this will translate into a prolonged pause through 2026‑27 as core inflation stays benign and oil‑price pressures ease. Growth forecasts have been nudged up by 20 basis points for the first half of FY 2026‑27, reflecting optimism from high‑frequency indicators and recent trade deals. The central bank is likely to focus on liquidity provision and transmission rather than rate adjustments.
Important. Net effect of striking IEEPA/ reciprocal tariffs and doing the 122 with similar product exemptions should be a tariff reduction.
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund. @Tracyyyqu https://t.co/7pUUCZaEr2
Chinese EV maker BYD is set to begin local vehicle assembly in Pakistan, with a 25,000‑unit annual plant near Karachi slated for operation in the third to fourth quarter of 2026. The $150 million facility will make BYD the first electric‑vehicle...
Dan Gertler, an Israeli businessman, leveraged deep political connections to dominate Congo's cobalt mining, turning the country into a linchpin of the global battery supply chain. His network of opaque contracts and bribes enabled Western tech firms to secure cheap...
A new IDB Invest technical note analyzes 21,696 MSMEs across 30 Latin American and Caribbean economies, linking credit access to employment growth. The study finds that an extra US$1 million in financing generates roughly four permanent jobs per year. Effects vary:...
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
The African Union’s February summit highlighted a packed 2026 election calendar, with more than a dozen nations heading to the polls, from Uganda and Benin to Ethiopia and South Sudan. Parallel security concerns dominate the agenda, as the DRC’s fragile...
This episode curates a set of recent reports on three major themes: U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court blocked President Trump's use of the IEEPA, escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions and Iran’s domestic challenges, and broader geoeconomic issues such as...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are unlawful, restoring congressional authority over trade barriers. The decision paves the way for thousands of lawsuits seeking refunds, with industry estimates...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that the president cannot impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, effectively nullifying most of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime. The decision restores congressional primacy over tariff authority and declares the core...
Tunisia’s post‑2011 democratic breakthrough delivered expanded civil liberties but failed to translate into lasting economic gains. A 2021 presidential power grab dismantled key checks, curbing judicial independence and reversing many political freedoms. Meanwhile, the economy remains hampered by high inflation,...
Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) told Mining Indaba delegates it has delivered roughly US$8 billion to the Democratic Republic of Congo’s public treasury since 2006 and supports about 20,000 jobs. The mine, a Copper Mark‑certified operation, allocates 0.3% of revenue to community projects...
Iran’s leadership has repeatedly misread regional dynamics, turning potential strategic gains into costly setbacks. After hesitating to mobilize Hezbollah during the October 7 Hamas offensive, Tehran launched a large‑scale missile and drone barrage against Israel in April 2024, prompting a robust Israeli‑U.S....
The episode examines the latest round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, noting modest progress on nuclear issues but stark disagreement over missiles and regional proxies, while the U.S. escalates its Middle East military presence with an additional aircraft carrier....
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects global real GDP growth to slow in 2026 after a surprisingly resilient 2025. The 2025 boost stemmed from a pre‑tariff trade surge and modest monetary easing, but those advantages are fading. New trade...
Thai shares rallied toward the 1,500‑point psychological barrier, driven by a catch‑up valuation buying pattern and strong dividend announcements. The SET index’s price‑earnings multiple sits about 33 % below the MSCI All‑Country World Index, widening the gap between blue‑chip and mid‑cap...
Islamic finance, anchored in asset‑backed transactions and social responsibility, is emerging as a credible alternative to conventional green finance. Its core instrument, green sukuk, ties investor capital directly to renewable‑energy and sustainable‑infrastructure projects, ensuring profits stem from real economic activity....
The article argues that America’s refusal to welcome talent jeopardizes its dominance in both sports and scientific research. It cites Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of skier Eileen Gu, who, though U.S.-born, competes for China, as evidence of the broader issue....
Four years after Russia’s invasion, Europe has become the primary financier and arms supplier for Ukraine, while the United States under President Trump has largely stepped back from direct involvement. The conflict has spurred unprecedented battlefield innovation, notably Ukraine’s mass‑produced...
Former President Donald Trump’s China policy is defined by contradictory impulses—pursuing short‑term commercial deals while simultaneously signaling a tougher stance on strategic issues like Taiwan and critical minerals. The administration’s “big‑tent” approach pits pro‑business officials against hard‑line hawks, creating strategic...
U.S. Senator Chris Coons told Devex at the Munich Security Conference that the United States allocates far more development assistance than most people realize. He warned that soaring defense budgets among the U.S. and its European allies could crowd out...
World Bank President Ajay Banga joined President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza reconstruction, igniting debate over the lender’s political neutrality. Critics warn his involvement could blur the Bank’s traditionally apolitical stance, while supporters argue his presence may temper...
At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, allies committed to raising defense‑related spending to 1.5 percent of GDP by 2030, adding roughly $825 billion across the Alliance. The communiqué, however, offers no clear definition of which expenditures count toward this figure,...
The U.S. Supreme Court issued a 6‑3 decision striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, finding the administration exceeded its authority. The ruling blocks the baseline 10% "Liberation Day" tariff and related...
At the Munich Security Conference, defense leaders focused on tanks, ammunition and troop deployments, while climate change was relegated to the sidelines. Delegations from the Global South, especially small‑island states, warned that climate acts as a strategic risk multiplier that...
The inflation adjusted dollar is only down ~ 10% v its q4 2024 high (it was driven up by the initial Trump trade). The inflation adjusted dollar is more or less back where it was in 2023 and...
The Indian government has set an ₹80,000‑crore dis‑investment target for the next fiscal, sparking a rally in public‑sector undertaking (PSU) stocks and lifting equity markets. The plan combines strategic stake sales and asset monetisation to generate fiscal inflows while unlocking...
Update on US tariffs: The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against components of the administration's tariff policy. The ball is now in the administration’s court—specifically the willingness and ability to impose tariffs under alternative legal authorities. #economy #tariffs #markets
Pakistan announced a dedicated special security unit in January 2026 to protect Chinese citizens and projects, a move prompted by a spike in militant attacks on Chinese interests. The unit signals Islamabad’s desperation to retain China’s $62 billion investment amid deteriorating...
Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on CBS News on February 19 to discuss Washington’s options regarding a potential strike on Iran. He warned that a rushed military action could destabilize the region and emphasized the need for a...
U.S. President Donald Trump is positioning a three‑party deal with Turkey and Ukraine at the June NATO summit to allow large‑scale U.S. LNG shipments through the Bosporus. Current Turkish regulations bar vessels over 200 m, preventing most U.S. LNG carriers from...
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor‑Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão signed the Parseria Foun ba Era Foun declaration, establishing a new partnership built on three pillars – peace and regional integration, prosperity and resilience, and people‑to‑people links. The accord expands cooperation in security,...
Europe’s productivity lags far behind the United States, with EU real‑GDP growth averaging 1.3% since 2000 versus 2.4% in the US. The gap is driven by weak diffusion of IT and AI advances, which account for 25% of US growth...
Thoughts? The World Uncertainty Index has surged to historic levels—exceeding Iraq War, COVID, and 9/11—and identify five stocks positioned to perform well under these geopolitical conditions: Palantir (AI battlefield intelligence), ExxonMobil and Cameco/CCJ (energy security), and NVIDIA (AI defense technology),...
Kazakhstan is accelerating a southward connectivity push to secure Arabian Sea access, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports. President Tokayev’s recent visit to Islamabad underscored a partnership focused on the Kazakhstan‑Turkmenistan‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan (KTAP) rail corridor and a broader...
Ocean Alliance is injecting targeted capacity into Vietnam and Thailand in its Day 10 network update, turning ports like Haiphong and Laem Chabang into core deep‑sea origins. The shift adds four trans‑Pacific services to Haiphong and doubles West‑Coast sailings from Laem Chabang, while...
Europe faces its most serious security shortfall in decades as reliance on U.S. defense guarantees wanes. The article argues that strategic autonomy must include re‑engaging Turkey, NATO’s most capable land force and a pivotal regional actor. It highlights the Trump...
From GS Prime trading desk on Flows, via Bbrg: “Against a more challenging performance backdrop and tougher technicals, hedge funds have turned more defensive and net sold US equities MTD at the fastest pace since March 25,” the team led by...
Very good Rhodium piece on the cost advantage of Chinese EVs: “In practice, countries seeking to protect domestic industries have two broad options. One is to impose very high tariffs that account not only for subsidies but also for structural...
South Africa’s commodity surge—gold up 65% and platinum 125%—is fueling a boom on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with mining firms delivering double‑digit returns. The JSE’s recent rule changes, cutting shareholder approval thresholds from 75% to 50% and aligning disclosure standards,...
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. NO SURPRISE. AR’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 9.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 5%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL....
A couple of points on Section 122 tariffs -- as they seem to be coming quickly 1/ https://t.co/s9LF3ZMZ1q
Cross‑border payments in Africa now settle in seconds, but verifying the counterpart business can take weeks. The delay stems from fragmented, offline national registries and a lack of cross‑border data harmonisation, creating a “registry gap” that hampers the African Continental...
This illustrates the problems with the IMF's 2025 external sector report -- for one, it uses the 2024 current account surplus as its measure, and a lot has changed since then ... 1/2 https://t.co/uBaXFvSXhW
The Trump administration is sure to use other authorities (122 maybe, 232, 301) to raise tariffs now that the court has struck down the IEEPA tariffs. But striking down IEEPA still matters, particularly for China/other countries that aren't heavily hit by...
President Donald Trump and his MAGA allies continue to cast the European Union as weak and misguided, a theme echoed at both Davos and the Munich Security Conference. The article counters this narrative, highlighting the EU’s social‑market model and its...
We don’t talk about banks much any more, but Trump 2.0 has been good to them, notably Citi the principal casualty of 2008. More on this and other fascinating topics in the Chartbook Top links today. https://t.co/saPWxJgDju
When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP
Great meeting with PM @narendramodi today to talk about the incredible energy around AI in India. India is our fastest growing market for codex globally, up 4x in weekly users in the past 2 weeks alone. 🇮🇳! https://t.co/MRbw0UkotJ
