Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Transcript: Fresh Challenge for US Treasuries Dominance
Development banks’ sovereign‑supranational‑agency (SSA) dollar bonds are closing the yield gap with U.S. Treasuries, reflecting investor wariness of Trump‑era policy risk and rising U.S. credit concerns. At the same time, Netflix announced founder Reed Hastings will step down as chair, and its shares fell 9% after guidance missed expectations despite a $3 bn breakup fee and strong quarterly earnings. An FT investigation revealed a Chinese‑launched satellite, handed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 2024, was used to surveil and time attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East. Finally, Swiss chocolate giant Barry Callebaut cut its profit outlook, sending its stock down more than 15% amid falling cocoa prices and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.
China Triples Export Controls, Turns Supply Chains Into Leverage
In a counterattack to America’s aggressive protectionist measures, China has nearly TRIPLED its use of export controls in the last 5 years. Beijing is turning its supply-chain dominance into geopolitical leverage. CHINA'S MESSAGE = IF YOU ATTACK US, WE WILL COUNTERATTACK....
US Sanctions Backfire, China Gains One‑Third of Iran Trade
In 1995, China accounted for virtually ZERO of Iran's trade. Today, it accounts for 1/3. Ill-advised US sanctions on Iran have BACKFIRED. They’ve allowed China to increase its sphere of influence. https://t.co/JUoFF3ACJR
China Slashes Fuel Output, Boosts Aluminum as Gulf War Tightens Markets
China's refiners cut crude‑oil run rates last month while aluminum smelters lifted output, reacting to a supply shock from the war in the Persian Gulf. The twin moves tighten global fuel availability and ease a worldwide aluminum shortfall, reshaping supply‑chain...
Zimbabwe Tightens Beneficiation Rules to Halt Raw Mineral Export Losses
Zimbabwe's cabinet approved a new minerals‑beneficiation framework that mandates Value‑Added Compliance Certificates and a real‑time mine‑to‑market tracking system. The move targets raw‑export losses, especially after a recent ban on lithium shipments, and reshapes the country's mining value chain.
India’s Tech Talent Becomes Strategic Asset in Global Crypto Infrastructure Race
At a Chatham House‑Rules policy discussion, participants highlighted India’s large base of software engineers as a decisive advantage in the worldwide scramble to build crypto‑related infrastructure. The dialogue underscored how the country’s open‑source expertise and digital public systems could translate...
China Q1 2026 GDP Hits 5% YoY, Outpacing Forecasts Amid Iran‑Israel War Risks
China reported a 5.0% year‑on‑year rise in first‑quarter 2026 GDP, beating the 4.8% consensus and meeting its 4.5‑5% target. The surge was driven by strong services and high‑tech exports, yet analysts warn the ongoing Iran‑Israel war could dampen momentum later...
ECB Vice‑President Panetta Warns Wars Could Erase Decades of Development in Emerging Economies
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned at a World Bank‑IMF Development Committee meeting that ongoing wars could undo decades of progress in developing countries. He highlighted high debt levels and limited fiscal space as key vulnerabilities, warning that the...
ASX Slides 0.3% as China Housing Slump and Rate‑hike Fears Hit Banks
The ASX 200 slipped 23.7 points (0.26%) to 8,955 on Thursday, pressured by a robust Australian jobs report that revived expectations of further RBA tightening and by fresh data showing a deepening slump in China's housing market. The decline stood...
India to Continue Buying Russian Crude, LPG Despite End of US Sanctions Waiver
India’s major refiners have secured roughly 800,000 tonnes of LPG from Russia, Australia and the United States and are now negotiating additional imports. The United States’ one‑month waiver on sanctions for Russian crude and LPG has expired, but officials say India...
Iran War Slashes Indian Exports 7% as Hormuz Blockade Chokes Oil Flows
India’s merchandise exports dropped 7% in March to $38.9 bn, driven by the Iran war and a U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has trapped Gulf oil. The disruption has pushed oil import bills to a 13‑month low and...
Zimbabwe Rolls Out $1 B AI‑Driven Fintech and Smart‑City Project to Spur Digital Industrialisation
Telecom magnate Strive Masiyiwa announced a $1 billion AI‑driven fintech and smart‑city programme anchored by an 800‑acre Econet Tech City near Harare. The plan couples NVIDIA‑powered AI factories, a stablecoin joint venture and a listed infrastructure platform to position Zimbabwe as...
India Targets 70,000 New Hotel Rooms by 2030 as Market Swells to $31 Billion
India’s hospitality sector will add more than 70,000 rooms by 2030, driving the market to an estimated $31 bn by 2029. The expansion is fueled by a 40% jump in domestic tourist arrivals and rising disposable incomes, creating a wave of...
Asian Currencies Slide as Oil Tops $110, LNG Soars 143% Amid Crisis
The US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation has driven oil above $110 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering a sharp depreciation of several Asian currencies. The shock is reshaping inflation outlooks and central‑bank policy across the region.
Plata Secures $405 Million Series C, Valuing Mexican FinTech at $5 Billion
Plata announced a $405 million Series C funding round led by Bicycle Capital, pushing its valuation to $5 billion. The round also brought in Kora, Qatar Investment Authority and BTG Pactual, underscoring broad institutional confidence in the Mexican fintech’s growth trajectory.
Türkiye-Armenia Border Reopening: A Turning Point For The South Caucasus
After three decades of closure, the Türkiye‑Armenia border is poised for reopening, driven by Turkish Airlines flights, streamlined visa rules, and plans for direct land trade. Both sides have upgraded border facilities—Armenia’s Margara checkpoint and Turkey’s Alican crossing—indicating operational readiness....
Council to Assess China’s Call for Direct Flight Routes
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council received a Chinese letter urging the restoration of direct flights from five mainland airports—Urumqi, Xian, Harbin, Kunming and Lanzhou. The council will evaluate the request, but local airlines say demand is weak because Chinese residents cannot...
No Detuned GPUs Pushes China to Build XPUs Faster
Agree 100% with Gavin on this one. 1/ Yes China has its own aspirations. The question was how quickly they needed an alternative and the mandates and investment. 2/ NOT selling detuned GPU editions means they’re forced to do the...
Tourism Sector Seeking Clear Policies
Thai tourism operators warned that government policies remain vague, leaving SMEs burdened by debt and rising energy costs. They urged the administration to stabilize commodity prices, resolve debt, and expand high‑value tourism through green, wellness and short‑haul markets. Officials also...
Pakistan. Caught Between President Trump and a Lethal Nuclear Dilemma
Pakistan is juggling a fragile diplomatic tightrope, courting President Trump’s United States while honoring a secretive Saudi‑Pakistan defence pact that could entail nuclear support. After India’s missile strike, the Pakistani army regained domestic popularity, enabling Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 17 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Japan’s prime minister announced a $10 billion framework to help Southeast Asian nations secure crude oil and shore up supply chains amid the Iran‑U.S. conflict. China reported a 5.0% year‑on‑year GDP rise in Q1 2026, its strongest in three quarters, driven...
Hong Kong Banks Dependent on SWIFT Are Warned of New US Sanctions
The U.S. Treasury warned two Chinese banks that processed roughly $9 billion of Iran‑oil payments that flowed through Hong Kong, Oman and the UAE, threatening secondary sanctions. Hong Kong banks rely on SWIFT for global settlements and have already closed accounts linked to...
K-Research Foresees Stagflation Risk in H2
Kasikorn Research Centre warns that Thailand could slip into stagflation in late Q2 or early Q3 2024 as businesses restock amid persistently high oil prices. K‑Research projects oil to average $90 per barrel in 2026, with short‑term spikes above $100....
Peru's Trusted Central Bank Governor Faces Retirement Amid Political Turmoil
Peru is gearing up to elect its 10th president in 10 years, but another serious question weighs on the nation of 35 million people: What happens if its central-bank governor of 20 years retires this year? The central bank has a...
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Calls on World Bank to Fund Critical Mineral Projects
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the World Bank at the IMF/World Bank spring meetings to redirect its green‑lending strategy toward critical mineral mining and processing. He argued that secure supplies of rare earths and other key minerals are essential...
Hedge Funds Poised for Best Monthly Gains Since 2016, Driven by Asia Exposure
Equity long/short hedge funds have posted a 7.7% gain this month, positioning the industry for its strongest monthly return since 2016. The surge is anchored by Asian and China‑focused managers and a wave of new capital, according to a Goldman...
Addepar Launches Singapore Office, Designating City as Asia‑Pacific Hub
Addepar announced the opening of a Singapore office at Marina Bay Financial Centre, formalising the city as its Asia‑Pacific hub. The move follows a 130% rise in APAC client numbers and builds on an investment from Singapore’s EDBI in the...
Foreign Investors Dump $1.5 Bn of Thai Assets as Iran War Spurs Energy Shock
Foreign investors withdrew $823 million from Thai equities and $705 million from bonds in March, driving the baht lower amid an energy shock from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The outflows, the biggest since October 2024, highlight Thailand’s vulnerability to rising oil...
FX Curbs Lift Hedging Costs 70 Bps, Dampening Demand for Indian Bonds
India's Reserve Bank has tightened foreign‑exchange rules, sending onshore hedging costs up 30 basis points and offshore non‑deliverable forward (NDF) costs up nearly 70 basis points. The surge in hedging expenses wipes out most of the carry on Indian government...
Pakistan Ends 8‑Year Bank Ban on Crypto, Allows VASP Accounts for 40 Million Users
The State Bank of Pakistan revoked its 2018 prohibition on banks dealing with cryptocurrencies, allowing licensed virtual asset service providers to open segregated client‑money accounts. The move targets roughly 40 million Pakistanis active in crypto and backs a $2 billion tokenisation partnership...
This American Nuclear Startup Aims to Supply India’s Reactor Boom
Chicago‑based Clean Core Thorium Energy, one of the first U.S. firms cleared to export nuclear material to India, is set to announce a pilot manufacturing agreement with Canada’s National Laboratories. The startup’s proprietary fuel assemblies blend thorium with high‑assay low‑enriched...
Trump Says Israel and Lebanon Have Agreed to 10-Day Ceasefire
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10‑day ceasefire starting Thursday evening, and he plans to host Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House...
The Road That Runs Through Tehran: Pepe Escobar on the Corridor Reshaping the World
In this episode of Think Bricks, journalist Pepe Escobar discusses his documentary "Golden Corridor," which reveals the emerging North‑South transport corridor linking Russia, Iran, and India—a multimodal network of rail, road, and sea routes that integrates Eurasia and complements China’s...
Could Bulgaria Replace Hungary as Putin’s Proxy Inside the EU?
Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat ends Hungary’s outspoken pro‑Russian stance in the EU, raising hopes in Kyiv for stronger Western backing. Bulgaria’s parliamentary vote on April 19 could elevate former president Rumen Radev, a known Kremlin sympathizer, to a governing role. If Radev’s...
S&P's Low Yield, High PE Pushes Investors Toward LatAm
The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. At the same time, it’s trading at one of the richest cyclically adjusted P/E ratios in history. Ask yourself: What’s the actual upside you’re being compensated for at...
3 Things Investors Can Do Now to Keep Control as Oil Prices Shake the Market
The renewed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has tightened global oil supplies, pushing crude prices higher and rattling markets. BCA Research chief strategist Felix Vezina‑Poirier warns that the U.S. blockade could prolong the disruption, giving Iran leverage over energy...
Emerging Markets ETF Could Burn Options Bears
The de‑escalation of the US‑Iran conflict is easing Middle‑East tensions, reviving confidence in global supply chains and making tech heavyweights like Taiwan Semiconductor more attractive. This backdrop is boosting the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which now trades at...
Gulf War III, Markets Sanguine, Why?
Markets rallied sharply after a cease‑fire was announced in the Iran‑Gulf conflict, erasing the S&P’s earlier war‑related losses and bringing risk assets back to near‑pre‑war levels. Oil prices remain about 50% above pre‑crisis levels, and the Strait of Hormuz...
Oil Shock Less Severe; Iran Likely to Restore Flow
Of course the world cannot withstand a 20% supply shock of oil for quarters There are just two weird assumptions included in that: 1) The supply shock is not 20% effectively - far from it actually. The bypassing of the strait...
IMF Resumes Talks, Opening Funding Path for Venezuela
#Venezuela: The IMF will resume formal contact, potentially paving the way for the acting administration of Delcy Rodriguez to regain access to the lender’s financing @jdorosario @europressos https://t.co/AtCHswbuUA
How China’s Arctic Ambitions Inflate Russia’s Geopolitical Leverage
Russia’s Northern Sea Route is framed by law as a historic national artery, not an open international corridor. While China promotes the route as a "Polar Silk Road" and anticipates commercial growth, Russian statutes require prior authorization, routing, and reporting,...
Putin Now Publicly Blamed for Russia’s Economic Collapse
More and more often, Putin gets directly and publicly blamed for Russia's collapsing economy. Something that was both unthinkable and very predictable only a year ago. https://t.co/oiTq1OF05N
IMF Senegal Loan Talks Advance, Debt Talks Still Needed
JUST IN: IMF's Senegal loan negotiations are progressing well, but more debt discussions are required.
MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment
Luke Gromen, a veteran macro researcher, hosts MacroVoices #528 discussing how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a geopolitical shock comparable to the 1956 Suez Crisis. He draws parallels between the strategic chokepoint’s role in oil supply...
Chinese Stocks Offer Undervalued Upside, Says Strategist
🇨🇳📈 Are investors underestimating the potential upside in Chinese equities? @LizThomasStrat dives into the risk/reward setup on MRKT Call https://t.co/hKMhhCNpDm
Ajay Banga on the Global Economic Outlook Amid War with Iran
World Bank President Ajay Banga warned that the ongoing war with Iran will push global inflation up by roughly 0.9 percentage points and trim real GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points. He linked the inflationary pressure to higher energy prices and...
Colombia Readies $4 Billion Bond Buyback, Buys Dollars to Support Peso
The Colombian government is purchasing U.S. dollars this week as it gears up for a $4 billion external‑debt buyback. The dollar purchases have pulled the peso away from a five‑year high and sparked a rally in Colombian sovereign bonds.
GE Aerospace and HAL Advance Joint F414 Jet Engine Production in India
GE Aerospace and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) have reached a decisive step in finalising a partnership to co‑produce the F414 fighter‑jet engine in India. The agreement aims to supply power for the IAF's upcoming Tejas Mk2 and future combat aircraft,...
India and Pakistan Still Cannot Agree to Restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but Re-Engagement Could Help Bring Lasting...
India has suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty following the 2025 Pahalgam attack, cutting water flows through the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams. The treaty, which has underpinned water sharing for over 300 million people, is now under strain...
China’s Robot Surge Highlights U.S. AI and Data‑Analytics Gap
China’s aggressive rollout of factory‑floor and humanoid robots is outpacing the United States, exposing a shortfall in American data‑analytics and AI implementation. Experts say the gap stems from fragmented U.S. policy and a lack of coordinated national strategy, while Beijing’s...