Council to Assess China’s Call for Direct Flight Routes

Why It Matters

The proposal tests the commercial feasibility of cross‑strait air links amid political constraints, while the fishing‑vessel concession signals Beijing’s pattern of offering limited relaxations after imposing barriers, affecting Taiwan’s trade and security calculations.

Key Takeaways

• China proposes direct flights from five mainland cities to Taiwan
• Taiwanese airlines doubt demand due to return‑flight passenger shortage
• Direct ticket $470‑$630; via Shanghai $250‑$380
• Fishing vessel policy eases port restrictions but offers no new benefits
• MAC will assess proposal amid broader cross‑strait tension

Pulse Analysis

The Mainland Affairs Council’s receipt of a Chinese request to reopen direct routes from five interior cities revives a long‑standing debate over cross‑strait air connectivity. Since 2008, Taiwan and China have operated limited direct flights, primarily linking major hubs like Taipei and Shanghai. The new proposal targets secondary markets—Urumqi, Xian, Harbin, Kunming and Lanzhou—where passenger volumes are modest and, crucially, Chinese residents are still barred from visiting Taiwan. This restriction creates a one‑way traffic flow, forcing airlines to operate empty return legs, a scenario that erodes profitability and discourages carriers from committing resources.

Airlines’ economic calculus hinges on seat‑load factors and fare differentials. A direct Taipei‑Xian ticket costs roughly NT$15,000‑20,000 (about $470‑$630), whereas routing through Shanghai cuts the price to NT$8,000‑12,000 (around $250‑$380). The lower‑cost indirect option, combined with limited demand for the specific city pairs, means airlines would struggle to fill seats on the return journey. Moreover, Taiwan’s major carriers—EVA Air, Starlux and China Airlines—already operate a modest network of nine European hubs, and they can connect passengers to interior Chinese destinations via existing connections, further reducing the incentive to add new direct services.

Beyond aviation, the discussion reflects a broader pattern in Beijing’s Taiwan policy. The council noted that China’s recent “preferential” treatment for Taiwanese distant‑water fishing vessels merely relaxes prior registration hurdles without delivering substantive new benefits. This mirrors earlier moves in agriculture and fisheries where Beijing first imposes barriers and later offers limited concessions. Such tactics aim to project goodwill while preserving leverage, leaving Taiwan to weigh short‑term gains against long‑term strategic implications. The MAC’s cautious assessment will therefore factor not only commercial viability but also the political signal embedded in China’s mixed‑message approach.