Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Iran Conflict Poses Risk to Global Economy, IMF Members to Say
The International Monetary Fund’s policy‑making body is set to issue a statement warning that the ongoing Iran conflict constitutes a serious threat to the global economy. It cautions that sustained hostilities could keep oil and fertilizer prices elevated for an extended period. The IMF predicts amplified risks to energy and food security, global growth, inflation and external sector balances. The warning underscores how the poorest nations will bear the brunt of these shocks.
⛽ Iran’s Smartest Move Yet Wasn’t Closing Hormuz — It Was Reopening It. Let Me Explain.
Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz immediately after a temporary cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon, linking the maritime opening directly to the cease‑fire terms. The narrow waterway carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG, making its status a...
Can Africa Avoid Asia's Palm Oil Pitfalls?
African nations are seeking to slash palm‑oil imports—about half of current consumption—by expanding domestic production. Smallholders, who grow roughly 70% of the continent’s oil palm, average six tonnes per hectare, far below the 20‑plus tonnes achieved on Asian commercial estates....
India Markets Draw Long-Term Capital Amid Global Volatility: SEBI Chief
India’s capital markets are attracting long‑term capital despite global volatility, SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said at the IMF‑World Bank Spring Meetings. In fiscal year 2026 the markets raised over $154 billion through equity and debt issuances, while mutual‑fund assets approach...
Strait of Hormuz Reopens—Durability and Ship Commitment Key
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is undoubtedly a welcome relief for the global economy. Needless to say, its true impact depends on the durability of this reopening, which will require sustained confidence-building measures from all three...
Hormuz Reopens, Markets Surge as Oil Plummets
STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN. WAR IS OVER?! Iran reopens the Strait. Oil down -13% $SPX at record highs. $NDX logs its longest win streak since 2009. Dollar easing, gold and $BTC ripping The single biggest lock on markets just cleared. US-Iran...
Strait of Hormuz Reopening for Commercial Traffic, Trump and Iran Say
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial vessels, aligning the move with a 10‑day cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon brokered by President Trump. The reopening follows a week‑long U.S. blockade that aimed to pressure Iran over...
Iran War Energy Shock Threatens Southeast Asia’s Supply Chains. A Win for China?
The US‑Israeli conflict in Iran is sparking an energy shock that is reshaping Asian supply chains. Western buyers, wary of Southeast Asia’s mounting energy‑supply risk, are returning to Chinese manufacturers, a trend evident at the Canton Fair where European and...
The “And” Economy: Dubai’s Resilience in the Eye of the Geopolitical Storm
At the Semafor World Economy summit, Dubai Economic Development Corporation chief Hadi Badri highlighted the city‑state’s ability to turn regional geopolitical tension into a growth engine. By leveraging ultra‑diverse markets, digital and physical infrastructure, and a neutral "And" economy stance,...
China Was Once Buying Up Sri Lankan Ports. Now It’s India’s Turn.
India’s state‑run Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited has bought a 51 percent stake in Sri Lanka’s Colombo Dockyard for $26.8 million, marking the first overseas shipyard acquisition by an Indian firm. The 52‑year‑old yard, capable of handling vessels up to 125,000 deadweight tons,...
FTSE 100 Jumps as Strait of Hormuz Fully Open Following Ceasefire
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial vessels amid a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The news lifted risk sentiment, sending the FTSE 100 up 0.5% to 10,645 points, while travel stocks such as EasyJet and...
Fossil-Fuel Investments Are a Fiduciary Risk
The Iran war has reignited concerns that fossil‑fuel exposure is a geopolitical liability for African investors. Volatile oil prices are pressuring local currencies and threatening the balance sheets of banks, trustees and asset managers. The article argues that fiduciary duty...
EU Deforestation Law Spurs European Timber Firms to Drop Indonesian Suppliers
European timber companies, led by Belgium's Fepco International and Dutch importer Dekker Hout, have terminated contracts with Indonesian suppliers linked to forest clearance. The move follows a 2025 Earthsight investigation and anticipates the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that will ban...
U.S. Announces 4,000-Acre Industrial Hub in Philippines to Bolster Allied Supply Chains
The U.S. State Department said on Thursday it will help build a 4,000‑acre industrial hub in the Philippines, designed as a purpose‑built platform for allied manufacturing. The project is positioned as an “investment acceleration hub” that will shape production around...
MeitY Selects 10 AI Startups, Including Health‑tech Firms, for Second IndiaAI Cohort
India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) announced the selection of ten artificial‑intelligence startups – two of them health‑tech focused – for the second cohort of the IndiaAI Global Acceleration Programme. The cohort will undergo a three‑week online prep...
Ken Griffin Warns Prolonged Hormuz Shutdown Could Trigger Global Recession
Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that a sustained shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would force the global economy into a recession, citing oil prices hovering above $100 a barrel. His stark outlook, delivered at the Semafor World Economy conference,...
Ankara Proposes Grand Rewiring of Middle East Energy Export Map Amid Hormuz Blockade
Turkey’s energy minister unveiled a suite of five overland pipeline projects—spanning Qatar, the Caspian, Syria, Iraq and a Saudi‑Turkey electricity link—to create alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut after Iran’s retaliation to the US‑Israeli conflict....
Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir Lands in Tehran to Revive US‑Iran Talks
Field Marshal Asim Munir, the chief of Pakistan’s army, flew to Tehran on Wednesday with a fresh US framework for a second round of talks in Islamabad. His visit comes as Washington pushes to bring Iran back to the negotiating...
Oil Prices Swing as Hormuz Tensions and Ceasefire Hopes Roil Markets
Crude oil prices jumped and fell within 24 hours as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled possible weekend talks with Iran, a 10‑day Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire lifted optimism, and the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure kept traders on edge. Brent...
Japan’s Takaichi to Forge Closer Cooperation With Australia in Rare Earths
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will travel to Australia in early May to deepen rare‑earth cooperation, a cornerstone of Tokyo’s strategy to diversify away from China’s dominant supply chain. The talks will build on existing investments in Australian miners such...
Don’t ‘Overload’ US Deal with Extra Demands, Says EU Trade Boss
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič warned that the fragile EU‑US trade pact should not be burdened with extra demands ahead of his Washington visit. He urged both sides to respect the July Turnberry agreement that eliminates EU tariffs on U.S. industrial...
Asia Daily: April 17, 2026
Beijing hosted a high‑level meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, where they coordinated positions on Iran, Ukraine and Taiwan and signaled deeper strategic alignment. China also announced that the Shenzhou‑21 crew will remain on...
Latam FX Talking: The Brazilian Real Has Fared Well From the Crisis
ING’s Latin America FX outlook sees the Brazilian real emerging as the region’s top high‑yield currency in 2026. The firm projects USD/BRL falling to 4.50 within a year, translating to an implied 13% annual yield and a real‑effective exchange rate...
Pope Leo XIV’s Bamenda Visit Highlights Peace Push in Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis
Pope Leo XIV arrived in Bamenda, Cameroon, to address an estimated 20,000 people, condemning a "handful of tyrants" and urging a decisive change of course amid a decade‑long Anglophone conflict. The pontiff’s speech, backed by interfaith leaders and a three‑day...
Malaysia's FBM KLCI Stalls at 1,691 as Oil Prices and Middle‑East Tensions Keep Traders Cautious
The FBM KLCI in Kuala Lumpur edged up just 1.53 points to 1,691.24, reflecting a market that remains on the sidelines while oil hovers near $98 a barrel and Middle‑East tensions linger. Traders are watching global cues, including U.S. rate‑cut...
West Asia Conflict Hits India’s Seafood Exports to Gulf Nations
The escalation of the West Asia conflict has virtually halted India’s seafood shipments to Gulf markets, wiping out roughly 90% of exports to the region. Industry estimates place the value of these exports at $240‑$300 million, about 3‑4% of India’s total...
Speculating on South America’s Extraordinary Future
The Geopolitical Futures piece offers a speculative outlook on South America’s trajectory, emphasizing that it is not a formal forecast but a reasoned projection. It suggests the continent could experience an extraordinary economic upswing driven by a youthful demographic dividend,...
How Hormuz Could Shape China’s Taiwan Strategy
The article draws a parallel between Iran’s 2023 closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a potential Chinese strategy to cripple Taiwan without a conventional blockade. By creating insurance‑driven uncertainty, Beijing could halt semiconductor shipments, leveraging its “fortress economy” stockpiles...
Rand Merchant Bank: Cautious Optimism
Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) sees Africa’s deal‑making environment as cautiously optimistic, with moderate growth in deal volume driven by energy and digital sectors. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to unlock larger cross‑border mergers and create a...
UK Takes Lead in Protecting Developing Countries From Debt Crises
The UK government, via the London Coalition on Sustainable Sovereign Debt, introduced two private‑sector instruments to speed up sovereign debt restructurings in developing nations. The “Pause Clause” proposal permits temporary deferral of debt payments after major shocks, while an implementation...
China’s Bridge Paradox: More Growth With Less Cement
China reported a 5% year‑on‑year GDP rise in Q1, but the gain is almost entirely driven by government spending. Private consumption barely grew while both domestic and foreign investment fell, and export contributions weakened. State‑owned enterprises posted higher value‑added despite...
The Origins and Fate of Digital Sovereignty
The article examines why digital sovereignty remains elusive for most economies, noting that only China and Russia have built digital industries independent of U.S. platforms. It highlights the structural advantage of American incumbents, whose scale crowds out local competitors. In...
Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit, China Moves to Build Leverage and Limit Risks
China has launched an intensive diplomatic tour, hosting senior officials from Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates, Spain and sending its foreign minister to North Korea within a week. President Xi met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and welcomed Taiwan’s opposition...
The Uncertain Future of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor
The China‑Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) remains stalled despite renewed political overtures after Myanmar’s sham election. Beijing has backed the military regime, mediating ceasefires and establishing a BRI implementation committee, yet security crises in Rakhine and Shan states keep the Kyaukphyu...
China Exports a Ton of Cleantech — and the World Is Poised to Want More
China remains the world’s leading producer of solar panels, batteries and wind‑turbine equipment, and it is rapidly expanding exports of electric vehicles and batteries, especially to Europe. Despite EU tariffs introduced in October 2024, Chinese EVs captured 9% of EU...
India’s Share of Global GDP Projected to Hit 7% by 2050: McKinsey
McKinsey projects India’s share of global GDP to climb from 3.7% in 2025 to 7% by 2050, underscoring the country’s rising economic clout. Private‑capital deployment surged to $44 billion in 2025, more than doubling its share of GDP to 1.42% over...
Vietnamese Airline to Lease up to 10 C909 Jets in Boost for Chinese Aircraft Maker
Vietnamese low‑cost carrier VietJet Air announced a lease agreement for up to ten Chinese‑made Comac C909 regional jets, financed through SPDB Financial Leasing, a subsidiary of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. The deal follows high‑level talks between the Vietnamese and Chinese...
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Q1 GDP Hits 5.3% Despite Sector Slowdown
1Q GDP (advanced estimate) 5.3% as projected. Slowdown seen across all sectors. By sectors (vs 4Q25): •Services 5.4% (4Q25: 6.3%), •Manufacturing 5.8% (6.1%), •Construction 7.8% (11.0%), •Agriculture 2.8% (5.4%) •Mining & quarrying -1.1% (+2.0%) Sumber DOSM Still good growth nonetheless. BNM full year...
Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions in China, Indonesia, Philippines and Key Data From Japan and Korea
Asian central banks are set to announce key policy moves next week. China is expected to leave its loan prime rates unchanged despite stronger‑than‑expected Q1 GDP, while Indonesia’s Bank Indonesia will likely keep rates steady as inflation hovers around 3.5%....
Reducing East Asia Surplus Key to Global Economic Balance
Global adjustment really does hinge on bringing down East Asia's surplus -- and of course also brining down the deficit of the US and the UK The second China shock already solved for Germany's surplus https://t.co/CQ5w2tBmTD
Six‑Month Iran Deal Raises Strait‑of‑Hormuz Uncertainty
Europe and Gulf leaders thin six months for Iran war deal. If so, will the Strait stay open? For all?
Diversify Globally for Outsized Returns Beyond the US
Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the US?’ 15 months later: South Korea +179%, Peru +121%, Poland +98% … S&P 500 +18%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify. https://t.co/FgV3vruQ0G
Peace Hopes Boost Turkey's Gold Reserves Amid Costly Peg
Prospects of peace are helping Turkey. The central bank's gold holdings rose for the first time in data for the week of April 10. Gold holdings are now down 123 tons since the start of the conflict, which is worth...
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Indian Refiners Use Yuan for Iran Oil Purchases
Exclusive: Indian refiners pay for Iran oil in yuan via ICICI Bank, sources say https://t.co/jAwcjfRcHL
Mark Mobius: Early Emerging‑Markets Guru Offers Timeless Investor Lessons
Mark Mobius was among the earliest to recognise the long-term potential of emerging markets. He was a true "Emerging Markets Guru"! His deep research, on-ground understanding & conviction offer enduring lessons for investors. https://t.co/nY0eK5KRBt @MotilalOswalLtd @Pun_ditry
Infrastructure Investment Fuels China’s Q1 Growth Amid Weak Consumption
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. https://t.co/nM9A94Bq3q
China's Stagnant Imports Pose Bigger Trade Challenge than Exports
1/2 Soumaya Keynes notes that while China's surging exports may be a problem for many countries, they are the smaller problem. The bigger problem is that China's imports have barely grown at all. The more general point is that free trade...
Emerging Markets Set for Strong Post‑Conflict Surge
The coming wave for emerging markets will get stronger in the post-conflict era - #emergingmarkets #EM #dollar #capital #liquidity https://t.co/7DuKFyjwOx