Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
India is poised to amend its treaty with France, stripping French investors of the capital‑gains exemption for holdings under 10% and raising dividend withholding to 15% for those stakes. The change would also halve the dividend tax to 5% for holdings above 10%, aligning France’s regime with other treaties such as those with Singapore and Mauritius. As a result, French‑based participatory note (P‑note) issuers could see their product’s tax efficiency erode, prompting a reassessment of routing strategies. The move follows a Supreme Court ruling tightening the most‑favoured‑nation clause and anti‑abuse standards.
In 2024 and 2025, Mexico grew at an annualized pace of 0.8%, even as the US grew at an annualized pace of 2.3% in those two years. Mexico's growth stagnation, which - outside of COVID - has now lasted since...
For as long as I can remember, Argentina has tried to become credible and stable by pegging the Peso to the Dollar. The success rate of this strategy - in all the years it's been tried - is exactly ZERO....
India has postponed its scheduled trade delegation visit to Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump. The court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the tariffs, prompting Trump...
A dispute has emerged between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Belgium, and U.S. firm KoBold Metals over access to colonial-era geological archives housed at Belgium’s AfricaMuseum. The DRC wants to partner with KoBold to digitize data on cobalt, lithium and...
The Democratic Republic of Congo will host the inaugural DRC Critical Minerals & Industrialization Forum in Kolwezi from 7 to 9 October 2026, co‑hosting with the DRC‑Africa Battery Metals Forum. The event targets cobalt and lithium, aiming to shift the...
The Inland Waterways Development Council (IWDC) unveiled a ₹1,500 crore roadmap to expand India’s inland water transport network, laying foundations for projects exceeding ₹150 crore, including cruise jetties in six states. Cargo movement on national waterways surged to 145.84 million tonnes in 2024‑25,...
In this episode, The Macro Butler interviews the Arigato Investors to explore why gold remains a safe‑haven asset during market turbulence and how its appeal is evolving. They discuss the shifting financial centre of gravity toward Asia, highlighting Hong Kong and...
The UN Economic Commission for Africa warned that Africa’s massive youth cohort can become a global growth engine if investment is better linked to bankable projects. While capital exists, investors demand scale, security and market access, which the continent must...
The European Union and India have reached a landmark free‑trade agreement that will slash tariffs on the vast majority of bilateral trade, covering 96.6% of EU exports to India and 99.5% of Indian exports to the EU. Austrian State Secretary...
The U.S. Supreme Court nullified President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the administration to replace them with a blanket 15% tariff under Section 122. This shift lowers the average U.S. tariff rate to about...
Indonesia must orchestrate a record‑size share sale to lift the free‑float of 267 listed firms to at least 15%, up from the current 7.5% floor. The Indonesia Stock Exchange estimates the required issuance will total about 187 trillion rupiah (approximately S$14 billion),...
SafariCo Group is allocating $72 million to expand and refurbish its Tanzanian lodges, backed by a $50 million International Finance Corporation loan. The plan adds 184 rooms, pushing the portfolio beyond 1,000 keys across the Elewana, Explorer and Sopa brands. Tanzania’s tourism...
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So does the US have a balance of payments deficit for purposes of section 122 of the trade law (and thus the basis for imposing a 15% tariff). It is an interesting question 1/ many https://t.co/JidbJk37vw
Yoco’s international expansion chief Marcello Schermer says African fintechs must evolve from passive transaction recorders to proactive financial partners. After a decade of digitising payments, the continent now hosts over 5,000 startups and attracted $1.37 billion in 2024, with fintech capturing...
When it comes to Trump's tariff threats on China, it's clear that chairman Xi holds all the cards. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/ACGdxKxjr0
Thank you to President @LulaOficial, Minister @asilveiramg & Minister Vieira for their request for 🇧🇷 to become an @IEA Member Very happy IEA Members unanimously decided at our Ministerial to start the process for 🇧🇷’s full membership in a major step for...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act cannot be used to impose sweeping global tariffs, forcing the Trump administration to abandon the IEEPA‑based duties on India. Hours later, President Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade...
At the Africa Business Forum 2026 in Addis Ababa, leaders launched the Jobs Wall Commitment Tracker to record public and private sector job promises. The gathering emphasized that Africa’s youthful demographic demands risk‑tolerant, long‑term capital focused on research, innovation, and...
ICRA projects India’s year‑on‑year GDP growth to ease to 7.2% in Q3 FY 2025‑26, down from 8.2% in the prior quarter. The slowdown is driven by weaker services (+7.8% versus +9.2%) and agriculture (+3.0% versus +3.5%) growth, even as industrial output...
The Philippine Senate will convene an all‑senators’ caucus on Feb 23 to set ground rules for talks with the Chinese Embassy over the West Philippine Sea dispute, with Senate President Pro Tempore Panfilo Lacson emphasizing diplomatic courtesy and the possibility of...
Thursday, Indonesia’s Pres. Prabowo signed a one-sided US-Indonesia trade deal. Indonesia was slammed with a 19% tariff, while nearly all IDN tariffs on the US were eliminated. In contrast, P.M. Modi has wisely not signed a U.S.–India deal. INDIA LEAVES INDONESIA IN...
Japan's government will submit an immigration reform bill requiring airlines to deny boarding to travelers lacking pre‑travel authorization starting fiscal 2028. The measure obliges visa‑exempt visitors to declare occupation, purpose and accommodation online, with the Immigration Services Agency verifying data...
President Donald Trump announced a new 15% tariff on imports, raising the rate from the 10% he mentioned a day earlier. The increase follows a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated his earlier reciprocal and fentanyl‑related tariffs. Trump said the tariffs...
The 2026 Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics have pledged that virtually all electricity powering the Games will come from certified renewable sources. Enel will supply roughly 85 GWh of clean power, using guarantee‑of‑origin certificates to prove its green origin. Infrastructure upgrades, including new...
Emerging markets in Brazil, Ethiopia, and Egypt led 2025’s fastest tourism growth, with global arrivals hitting 1.52 billion, a 4 % rise. Brazil saw a 37 % surge to 9.3 million visitors, driven by new air routes and Embratur marketing. Egypt’s Grand Egyptian Museum...
Kuwait’s Combined Contracting Group Co. (CGCC) secured a KWD 10.2 million contract to provide gas‑gathering support services in the Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ) at the Al‑Wafra Joint Operations facility, a partnership between Kuwait Gulf Oil Co. and Chevron Saudi Arabia. The deal...
Japan’s deep-sea rare earth find at Minamitorishima sounds like a game-changer. And on paper, it is. The 50-50 mix of light and heavy rare earths is impressive, especially since heavy elements are the truly scarce ones. The bad news is it’s...
Political violence in Kenya has resurfaced, highlighted by police using teargas and live fire at an ODM rally in Kitengela and a subsequent disruption of a public meeting in Kakamega. Human‑rights organisations warn that women and children suffer disproportionately as...
Slovak journalists allege that the Ministry of Defence awarded Czechoslovak Group (CSG) €60.36 bn in contracts after the 2023 election, potentially to lift investor sentiment ahead of CSG’s January 2026 Amsterdam IPO. The IPO raised a record‑size defence offering, valuing CSG at...
In this 17‑minute episode, South America analyst Mario Braga explains RANE’s geopolitical analysis methodology, illustrating it with the shifting U.S.–Venezuela relationship. He details how analysts monitor political, economic, and security indicators, assess scenario probabilities, and translate findings into actionable intelligence...
The Iranian rial has collapsed in 2026, spurring hyperinflation and prompting middle‑class savers to flee the banking system. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted billions of dollars, echoing Lebanon’s 2019‑2021 crisis where crypto became a financial lifeline. On‑chain data shows...
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
The episode examines recent trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets, noting that high‑frequency data shows a steady $10 billion per week inflow, while UNCTAD’s lagging figures report a 2% decline to $875 billion last year. It explores how short‑term...
The episode examines Ukraine’s covert ‘Flamingo’ drone operations that penetrated over 1,300 km into Russian territory to strike a major missile production facility linked to President Putin. It outlines the technical capabilities of the drones, the strategic impact of disrupting...
At the Munich Security Conference, George addressed Europe’s reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, noting that European nuclear forces are insufficient to deter Russia’s vastly larger arsenal. He highlighted the continent’s high population density, which amplifies the catastrophic potential of...
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the 18% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Indian goods, prompting President Trump to replace them with a uniform 15% worldwide tariff under Section 122. This adjustment lowers the levy on Indian labour‑intensive exports—textiles, leather, shrimp—from the...
Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers in February 2026, channeling roughly Rs 16,912 crore into Indian equities. This marks a sharp reversal from January’s Rs 35,962 crore outflows and a year‑to‑date net outflow of Rs 19,050 crore. The buying was uneven across sectors, with IT stocks...
The episode reviews a week of heightened geopolitical coercion, highlighting how traditional diplomacy has been supplanted by a blend of negotiation and pressure tactics by major powers, especially the United States and China. It notes the U.S. leveraging multiple levers—military,...
The legal foundation of Washington’s geoeconomic power plays is looking shaky after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Source: Vizualytiks https://www.voronoiapp.com/trade/US-Tariff-Revenue-7693
A tariff “refund” mostly goes to whoever wrote the tariff check: the importer of record. That’s not the same person who paid more at the register. So refunds -- if they're offered -- might sound like consumer relief, but in...
China’s railway giants are turning outward as domestic high‑speed lines saturate, seeking overseas contracts in Southeast and Central Asia. Projects already under way include Thailand’s 610 km line, Malaysia’s 665 km east‑west railway, and Indonesia’s Jakarta‑Bandung service that has moved 12 million passengers....
If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack...
My take on MODI'S WIN over Trump in the US-India Trade Deal: "Ironically, Trump's threats have allowed Modi to dismantle some of India's protectionist measures. Previously, the dismantling wouldn't have been possible. Now Modi can say, 'Enemy Trump made...
Chariot Plc announced a $20 million equity placing to help finance the acquisition of a producing oil interest offshore Angola. The deal, in partnership with Shell Trading and Etu Energias, targets Blocks 14 and 14K, which currently produce about 8,000 barrels per day....
Oh boy. “DOLLAR in DECLINE” “The U.S. currency has lost its dominance. What investors should do now.”
#LibyaWatch🇱🇾: Thanks to US-led regime change operations in 2011, Libya is a failed state. Today, I measure Libya’s inflation at 58.8%/yr. LIBYA’S ECONOMY = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/5JVou6TFc3
The Ukraine war has exposed Russia’s structural vulnerabilities, including demographic decline, waning energy leverage over Europe, and growing reliance on China. Simultaneously, Moscow has adapted its military doctrine, emphasizing drones, electronic warfare, and attritional tactics, while sanctions have not collapsed...
Milton Friedman’s 1980 warning that tariffs show visible benefits but hide widespread costs resonates amid recent US‑China trade frictions, where higher import duties have pushed up consumer prices and strained global supply chains. At the same time, India and Brazil...
