Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Taiwan Government Should Lead Engagement with China on New Measures, Senior Official Says
Taiwan’s National Security Bureau chief Tsai Ming‑yen urged the island’s government to take the lead in engaging China after Beijing announced ten new incentive measures, such as relaxed tourism curbs, permissive TV content, and easier food‑product sales. He warned that private, party‑to‑party contacts bypass critical risk assessments and could expose Taiwan to political manipulation. Beijing continues to refuse direct talks with President Lai Ching‑te, branding him a separatist, while Taiwan prepares for key local elections in November. The official framed the incentives as a historical tool used by China to sway electoral outcomes.
Kotak Flags Anthropic's Mythos AI as Threat to India's IT Services Growth
Kotak Institutional Equities warned that Anthropic's Mythos AI model could introduce a 3‑3.5% annual growth headwind for India's IT services industry. The brokerage highlighted both disruption risks and emerging opportunities as AI-driven coding advances reshape the sector.
Trump Imposes 10 A.m. Iran Oil Sales Ban, Allies Enforce
JUST IN: President Trump announced a 10 a.m. oil sales ban on Iran, with cooperating nations ensuring it's enforced.
Morningstar Flags Fragile Ceasefire, IMF Forecasts and US PPI as Week's Top FX Movers
Morningstar's weekly FX and bond outlook warns that a two‑week cease‑fire in the Middle East, upcoming IMF forecasts, and US producer‑price data will dominate currency moves. Analysts see the cease‑fire as fragile, while US inflation numbers could shape the Fed's...
Shell Ramps up LNG Deliveries to India, Clinches 4 TBtu Fertilizer Contracts Amid Gulf Supply Shock
Shell plc stepped up LNG shipments to India in March, delivering its largest monthly volume and winning 4 trillion British thermal units of fertilizer tenders out of a 6 TBtu pool. The move follows force‑majeure on Qatar supplies triggered by the West...
Trump's Hormuz Policy Reversal Fuels Oil Market Volatility
JUST IN: Trump's policy flip from freeing the Strait of Hormuz to blocking it is stirring oil market volatility.
Iran Holds Untapped Leverage Against US Maritime Blockade
JUST IN: Iran's official warns Tehran has untapped leverage to counter the US maritime blockade.
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Risks Piling Pain on Asia Allies, China
President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting 10 am NY time on April 13. The move sent Brent crude up 8.6% to over $103 a barrel and spiked European gas...
Hong Kong Increasingly Seen as a Safe Haven in Troubled World
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and fragmented supply chains, stability has become a premium asset for investors. The article argues that Hong Kong, long viewed through a risk‑laden lens, is now being reassessed as a safe haven because of its institutional continuity...
Southeast Asia’s Rising Investment Appeal: Malaysia Leads the Way Among Developing Economies in 2026
Southeast Asia is emerging as a hot spot for global capital, with six growth markets drawing 8.2% of all emerging‑market inflows between 2021 and 2024. Malaysia leads the region, ranking 23rd worldwide in the Milken Institute’s 2026 Global Opportunity Index,...
IMF Director Says Shock From US-Iran War Is Already 'Baked' Into the Economy
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CBS that the economic fallout from the U.S.-Iran war is already "baked" into global markets. She highlighted disruptions to oil tankers, Gulf energy infrastructure and attacks on Qatari gas fields as sources...
Geopolitical Tensions May Bolster Hong Kong Office Demand as Gulf Capital Looks East
Analysts say the US‑Israel conflict with Iran and rising oil prices are prompting Gulf investors to seek stable financial hubs, bolstering demand for premium office space in Hong Kong. Leasing activity slowed in March, with 42 transactions versus 76 in...
Foreign Capital Reprices The India Premium
Foreign investors have largely exited Indian equities, with FIIs selling about $5.8 bn in April and $21.6 bn year‑to‑date, pushing foreign ownership to a 14‑year low. Over the past 18 months FPIs withdrew roughly $28 bn, and the MSCI Emerging Markets weighting fell...
Banks and Insurers Eye De‑Dollarisation as Middle East Tensions Spur New Payment Routes
Emerging‑market banks and insurers are weighing the risks and rewards of de‑dollarisation after Iran introduced a $2 million yuan or crypto toll for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, central‑bank dollar holdings have fallen to 56.7% of...
Trump Says He’s Closing the Strait of Hormuz. Has He Been Reading MarketWatch?
President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could trigger a sharp rise in global oil prices and create an energy‑price shock. The decision aligns with earlier MarketWatch analysis suggesting the president may be...
Taiwan Detects 16 Chinese Warplanes as Xi Meets KMT Leader, Raising Market Risk
Taiwan's defence ministry said 16 Chinese warplanes flew near the island on Friday, coinciding with President Xi Jinping's meeting with Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun in Beijing. Officials warned the dual messaging of peace talks and military pressure could heighten volatility...
Meiko Investment in Vietnam Set to Break US$1 Billion Mark- #BeltAndRoad #Economy #Infrastructure
Japanese printed circuit board leader Meiko Electronics is on track to invest nearly US$1 billion in Vietnam, adding six new production plants to its Southeast Asian footprint. The expansion cements Vietnam’s role as a key node in Meiko’s global supply chain...
Armenia Looking for Additional Partners for TRIPP Implementation
Armenia is expanding the investor pool for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a 42‑kilometre land bridge linking Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia’s Syunik province. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan say...
Be Cautious of China ‘Incentive’: Expert
China announced ten new "incentive" measures for Taiwan, covering agricultural product sales, investment opportunities and the resumption of travel. Experts warn the package is tied to political conditions such as the "1992 consensus" and could be used to pressure Taiwan’s...
Asia Market Sense Initial Thoughts: Trump Says US Will Block the Hormuz Straits;... That Just Makes Matters Worse
President Trump warned Iran that the United States would block the Strait of Hormuz if tolls were imposed, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel amid the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict. The geopolitical shock has spurred a wave of policy responses,...
US Hormuz Blockade Sparks Surge in Oil, Gas Prices
US military says it’ll begin a Hormuz blockade at 10am ET Monday. Oil prices +8%, NatGas +13% early Monday in Asia. Also, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shows the “highest” volumes since the war began (“highest” is of course...
Authoritarianism’s Planning Edge: Democracies Must Adapt
China embraced capitalism, opened up to trade, invested in infrastructure, cracked down on corruption, and has the most human capital of any nation on earth. Authoritarianism did help in being able to create long term plans and execute on them....
Hormuz Blockade, Australia Acts to Secure Urea
After US‑Iran peace talks collapsed, President Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening fears of oil and commodity disruptions. In response, Australia created a government‑industry working group to protect its urea supply, noting that roughly...
Why Global Imbalances Matter Again – and What to Do About Them
Global current‑account imbalances have widened sharply since 2018, reaching their highest levels since 2012, with the United States running a deficit of roughly 3.5‑4% of GDP and surplus economies such as China, Europe, Japan and oil exporters expanding their external...
“U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports”
U.S. Central Command announced a full maritime blockade of all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, effective April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, under the President’s proclamation. The restriction covers every nation’s ships but explicitly preserves freedom of navigation for traffic transiting...
PH Banks’ Loan Quality at Risk From Oil Shock
Fitch Ratings warns that prolonged Middle East conflict could keep oil prices high and disrupt Gulf remittances, pressuring Philippine borrowers. Loan growth accelerated to 9.5% year‑on‑year, reaching ₱14.3 trillion (≈$257 bn) in February, while non‑performing loans rose to 3.33% of total portfolios....
Hormuz Closure Threatens Petrodollar for First Time in 50 Years
No deal this weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed Oil prices are surging again. U.S. about to blockade New @moronomics podcast episode breaks down what this means and why this is the biggest threat to the “petrodollar” in 50 years...
Iran‑U.S. Talks Could Resume Within Days, WSJ Reports
WSJ on officials: A new round of talks between Iran and America may be held in days
U.K. Won’t Take Part in Trump’s Planned Blockade of Hormuz Strait
The United Kingdom announced it will not participate in President Donald Trump’s proposed naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Trump publicly threatened to block any vessel entering the waterway, branding the U.S....
From Sanctions Relief to Blockade in Three Weeks
I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time....
U.S. to Block All Iranian Port Shipping Monday
U.S. says will start blockading all maritime traffic from Iranian ports (both in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman) from Monday, April 13, at 10am Eastern Time.
Hopium: A Second Round of US-Iran Talks Could Be Held Within Days (WSJ Cite Officials)
High‑level US‑Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, but officials say a second round could be convened within days. Core disputes linger over unrestricted Hormuz navigation, the size of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, and the release of roughly...
China's Quiet Push Toward Energy Independence Accelerates
China is the most at risk and oddly silent during all of this chaos 🤔 Solar, nuclear and EV investments are obviously paying off for them. Expect them to redouble their already staggering efforts to be energy independent https://t.co/d92Cg4sy4B
Iranian Envoy Says Pakistan Talks Mark Ongoing Process
Iranian's Pakistan envoy says Islamabad talks not a one-off event but the start of a process
Wary Investors Eye Another Escalation in Iran War
The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks prompted President Donald Trump to announce a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly 20% of global oil and LNG. The rhetoric sparked a sharp sell‑off in crude, with...
India’s $700 Bn Forex Reserve Buffer Shields Rupee Amid Middle‑East Conflict
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves have risen to almost $700 bn, providing coverage for more than 11 months of imports and covering 94% of external debt. The Economic Survey says the buffer protects the rupee as oil prices climb and geopolitical risk spikes...
US Vice President JD Vance Leaves Islamabad After 21‑Hour US‑Iran Talks Fail to Secure Cease‑Fire
U.S. Vice President JD Vance headed a high‑level delegation to Islamabad, where 21‑hour negotiations with Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf ended without an agreement. The United States demanded a binding nuclear‑non‑proliferation pledge, which Tehran refused, keeping the cease‑fire fragile...
Indonesia's IHSG Surges 6.14% Weekly, Market Cap Tops Rp13.2 Trillion ($880 M)
Indonesia's Jakarta Stock Exchange index (IHSG) climbed 6.14% for the week of April 6‑10, 2026, closing at 7,458.5 points. The rally lifted total market capitalization to Rp13.189 trillion (about $880 million) and saw daily trading volume jump 24.8%, driven by domestic investors...
Monday Open Levels, Indicative FX Prices, 13 April 2026
U.S. President Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after US‑Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend. The move sparked an immediate rise in the U.S. dollar as investors sought safety amid heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts expect crude...
Blockade Cuts Iran's Oil Revenue, Exposes Economic Fragility
A blockade collapses the blue bars below to zero. This collapses Iran's business model, which means there's no money for imports and the red bars go to zero. Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. Time to...
Net FDI Inflows Dip, Investors Opting for Mexico, Vietnam
India’s net foreign direct investment turned negative in January 2026, reaching –$1.39 billion as gross inflows fell 6.9% year‑on‑year to about $5.7 billion. Outbound repatriation surged to $4.9 billion, nearly doubling the previous month’s level. Analysts say investors are gravitating toward Mexico, Vietnam...
Saudi Summons Iraqi Envoy over Cross‑border Oil Attacks
Saudi Arabia summoned the Iraqi ambassador in Riyadh, saying that some of the most recent attacks against the kingdom were launched "from Iraqi territory." (KSA likely means some of the attacks during the night of April 7-8 that targeted Saudi oil...
US Misunderstands Existential Threat to China, Russia, Iran Supply Chains
100%. Virtually no one in US seems to understand a) This is existential to China & Russia as well as Iran b) What that potentially implies for global supply chains
The Islamabad Collapse: What the US-Iran Negotiation Failure Means for Gulf Stability and Global Supply Chains
Negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad collapsed, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively sealed by both sides. Tehran refused to abandon its nuclear enrichment program and to relinquish control of the waterway, while Washington demanded total dismantlement...
Turkey Drains Securities and Gold to Fund FX Intervention
Indeed. Turkey sold a ton of fx (essentially draining its securities portfolio) and sold/ swapped gold to generate even more fx to fund its massive March intervention ... 1/x https://t.co/RsDslEBwvB
US‑Iran Islamabad Talks Collapse, Leaving Emerging‑Market Oil Shock
U.S. Vice President JD Vance led a 21‑hour delegation to Islamabad that ended without an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme. The failure leaves the fragile cease‑fire and the strategic Strait of Hormuz in limbo, threatening oil‑price stability for emerging markets.
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as West Asia Tensions Keep Inflation Risks Alive
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and signaled a neutral stance, warning that West Asia conflict risks could keep inflationary pressures high. The decision narrows the window for near‑term rate cuts and boosts the...
Emerging Market Small Caps Surge as US Equities Lag
Emerging Market small caps are ripping, USA equities least strong m/m (but everything is higher) @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/DpXLRW0nez
Key US Maritime Dilemmas in Gulf and Red Sea
Three questions: 1) Would the US stop Chinese-flagged vessels going in-and-out the Persian Gulf? And if the tankers don’t stop? 2) What’s the plan if the Houthis of Yemen blockade the Bab al-Mandeb? 3) Would the U.S. stop Iranian tankers...
China to Restore Limited Ties with Taiwan After Opposition Visit
China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader - POLITICO https://t.co/vCYJCuJUps