Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
The Global Week Ahead
The United States has imposed a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil above $103 a barrel and raising the risk of direct conflict with Iran. Simultaneously, the IMF and World Bank are convening in Washington, where the IMF will publish its World Economic Outlook amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Major central banks—including the Fed, ECB, and BOJ—are slated to release key policy speeches and data, while elections in Hungary, Canada and Peru could reshape regional policy alignments. Markets are bracing for the combined impact of these geopolitical and economic developments.
Daily Memo: Developments in the Middle East
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will commence a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 13. The operation will prohibit all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports while allowing traffic to non‑Iranian ports to pass unimpeded....
Investors ‘Back to the Drawing Board’ as Iran Deal Stalls. This Is What Advisors Should Know
Investors are re‑evaluating stock valuations as U.S.–Iran negotiations stall, sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate past $101. The market reacted with the Dow down 0.5% and the S&P 500 flat, underscoring heightened geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, Goldman...
Why Markets Fear Uncertainty: The US–Iran Conflict and Its Impact on Global Markets
The escalating US‑Iran conflict is injecting unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty into global financial markets. Heightened risk expectations are driving oil prices up, inflating consumer costs and compressing corporate profit margins. The Federal Reserve now faces a policy dilemma, balancing inflationary pressure...
Saudi Arabia: IPO Magnet
Saudi Arabia cemented its role as the Gulf’s premier IPO hub in 2025, delivering 37 of the region’s 42 listings and raising roughly $4.2 billion. The Saudi Stock Exchange’s Main Market and its Nomu parallel market split the flow, with Nomu...
Inside the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings as Leaders Grapple with War and Supply Shocks
The IMF and World Bank opened their 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington under the shadow of the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have spiked oil by more than 20% and European gas by over...
Nigeria’s Economy Shocked by Middle East Conflict, IMF Flags $50B Aid Need
Nigeria’s finance minister Wale Edun declared the economy in shock as the Middle East war drives fuel prices up 50% and fuels capital outflows. The IMF warned that up to $50 bn in emergency financing may be required for balance‑of‑payments crises,...
Vietnam Cuts Fuel Taxes to Zero Through June, Aiming to Spur Demand Amid Global Oil Price Surge
Vietnam's National Assembly approved a resolution that removes all taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel from April 16 through June 30. The move, worth roughly 16.8% of fuel base prices, is designed to temper inflation and support growth as...
Zambia Secures Strategic Partnership in Jiangsu to Boost Chinese Investment
The Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) has signed a strategic partnership with the Jiangsu Industrial Cooperation Association, gaining free office space and staffing support for a new representative office in Nanjing. The deal taps into Jiangsu’s network of over 5,000 enterprises,...
T Rowe Price: How Investors Can Capitalise on China’s Next Expansion
T Rowe Price argues that despite recent sell‑offs in large‑cap Chinese tech stocks, the medium‑ to long‑term investment case for China remains intact. The firm highlights a projected 5% annual GDP growth by 2025, renewed policy support for infrastructure, and consumer demand...
With Orban Gone, China Has Lost Its Best Friend in the EU
Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary’s election removes the EU’s most vocal pro‑Beijing ally. Under Orban, Budapest routinely blocked EU statements on human‑rights abuses, Hong Kong and Taiwan, turning political support into China’s primary leverage in Europe. The incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, has...
From Indaba to the Budget: Will Fiscal Policy Unlock Mining-Led Growth?
South Africa’s mining sector, responsible for roughly 6% of GDP and about R440 billion ($23 billion) in annual output, is hampered by chronic freight bottlenecks. At the February Mining Indaba, industry leaders called for policy certainty and reliable logistics, prompting Finance Minister...
Blockade Pressures Iran; Oil Prices Expected Under $120
I've pushed for a blockade for over a month. Now we have it. It's the best way to dismantle the mullahs and get them to the negotiating table in good faith. Key risk to the US is another spike in...
Russia Urges BRICS Food Reserves to Offset Middle East Crisis
Russia calls for joint food reserves with BRICS to counter Middle East crisis risks https://t.co/g3JsxUHPEN
Saudi Arabia Restores Capacity of Affected Oil and Gas Assets
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy announced that the East‑West oil pipeline, which lost about 700,000 barrels per day in the April 9 Iranian attacks, has been restored to its full 7 million b/d capacity. Production at the Manifa field, previously reduced by 300,000 b/d,...
Blockade Is Retaliation, Not Escalation, to Pressure Iran
Quick reminder that the blockade is NOT an escalation. Iran has blockaded Western ships for the past 6 weeks. This is payback for that and levels the playing field. The blockade will implode Iran's economy and bring the mullahs to...
China Demands Free Strait Navigation Despite Allied Blockade
China wants “unobstructed navigation” thru the Strait. There are two parties blocking Hormuz. China is an ally of one of them.
Dueling Hormuz Blockades Push World to the Brink
US President Donald Trump announced a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz effective April 13, targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports. Iran has responded with a de‑facto toll‑booth regime, charging up to $2 million per ship and laying mines...
Saudi Crude Shipments to China to Halve Amid War
Saudi Arabia’s crude sales to top importer China are set to halve next month as the war in the Middle East upends flows and lifts prices, according to traders familiar with the matter https://t.co/P8mgp5is3N
Taiwan Drills to Secure Supplies Against Potential Chinese Blockade
Taiwan will conduct new drills in coming weeks to ensure the island has access to critical supplies in the event of a Chinese blockade, a risk demonstrated by Iran’s closure of a global energy chokepoint https://t.co/lSVXsGM3NB
Full Interview: Roubini on Iran War, Oil Shock, AI Boom
In a Bloomberg interview, economist Nouriel Roubini warned that the Iran‑Israel conflict could spiral into a full‑scale escalation, pushing oil prices to $150‑$200 a barrel and reviving 1970s‑style stagflation. He contrasted this with a de‑escalation scenario that would likely keep...
China Leads Asia’s Startup Funding To Its Highest Level In More Than 3 Years
Asia’s venture capital market rebounded in Q1 2026, with investors deploying $27.4 bn across seed to growth stages—a 20% rise from the previous quarter and nearly double year‑over‑year. China led the surge, accounting for $16.5 bn (60% of the region’s total) driven...
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
EU Businesses Warn China’s New Supply Chain Law Puts Firms on Collision Course with Bloc’s Rules
A EU business lobby, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, has condemned China’s new Regulation 834, which took effect last week. The law gives Chinese authorities sweeping powers to investigate and punish companies or individuals deemed to threaten industrial...
US‑Iran Talks Collapse; Blockade Threatens Trump‑Xi Summit
US-Iran negotiations failed over the weekend. The risk-off moves today though have mostly been mild. US blockade of Iranian ports could disrupt next month's Trump-Xi meeting. Bab-el-Mandeb Strait may also be brought into play. See https://t.co/13UStEpBOS https://t.co/1u6Xn5BKh9
Pakistan Launches Iran Transit Corridor with First Shipment to Central Asia
Pakistan has inaugurated an overland trade corridor through Iran, dispatching its first export—a refrigerated truckload of frozen meat—from Karachi to Tashkent. The road link offers a shorter, faster alternative to traditional maritime routes, promising lower freight costs and reduced handling...
China's Q
1/3 According to the People's Bank of China, the total amount of aggregate new financing in the first quarter of 2026 was RMB 14.83 trillion, or 2.3% less than in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 100% of the...
China Mandates Export Licenses for Gallium and Germanium, Sparking U.S. Supply‑Chain Alarm
China has required export licences for gallium and germanium, two rare‑earth metals vital to U.S. semiconductors and optics. The policy, introduced in 2025 and expanded in 2026, triggered price spikes and a swift strategic response from Washington and Brussels, highlighting...
Chinese Firms Shift to Brazil's Consumer Tech, Mixue Opens First Store with $590M Investment
Chinese direct investment in Brazil doubled to $4.2 billion in 2024, and ice‑cream chain Mixue opened its first Brazilian store, pledging a 3 billion‑real ($590 million) rollout. The move signals a strategic pivot from infrastructure to consumer electronics, smartphones, wearables and smart‑home devices.
BRICS Grows to Ten Members Ahead of New Delhi Summit, Challenging Western Economic Order
The BRICS bloc has added Indonesia, bringing full membership to ten countries and setting the stage for a September 2026 summit in New Delhi. With 45% of the world’s population and more than 35% of global GDP, the expanded group...
US, China Seen as Top AI Beneficiaries in New Growth Forecast From ‘Doctor Doom’ Economist
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, once famed as “Doctor Doom,” has turned bullish, forecasting that a surge in artificial intelligence and other high‑tech innovations will propel the United States into double‑digit annual growth. He projects China will experience a comparable boost,...
Spain Reopens Embassy in Tehran as Diplomatic Activity Resumes
Spain reopened its embassy in Tehran on April 13, 2026, with Ambassador Antonio Sánchez‑Benedito leading a diplomatic team back to Iran after the ceasefire. The ambassador announced a focus on peace‑building, bilateral cooperation, and exploring economic and tourism opportunities. Madrid’s...
Iran Warns Persian Gulf Port Security ‘for All or None’ as Hormuz Tensions Escalate
Iran’s Khatam al‑Anbiya Central Headquarters warned on April 13 that security in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman must be collective, stating any threat to Iranian ports endangers all regional ports. The statement follows the collapse of Iran‑U.S. talks and...
Between War and Wishful Thinking
The United States has hinted at closing the Strait of Hormuz, a move aimed at both Iran and China, heightening geopolitical risk for oil supplies. Iranian crude is increasingly sold at a discount and settled outside the dollar system, adding...
Hormuz Crisis Signals New Era of Risk for Gulf Energy
The six‑week Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war culminated in Iran’s unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz, halting roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil supply. The shutdown and missile strikes knocked out about 11 million barrels per day of regional production, including Saudi Arabia’s...
China, the Iran War and the Chemical Suddenly Stoking Global Supply Fears
China announced an abrupt halt to sulphuric acid exports, a key input for fertilizer and mining industries worldwide. The decision coincides with renewed tensions in the Iran‑U.S. conflict, where failed peace talks have heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts warn that reduced...
Odd Lots: Daoud on How Iran War Will Reshape the Gulf (Podcast)
Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics chief emerging‑markets economist, warned that the ongoing war with Iran will leave a lasting imprint on the Gulf region. Nations may need to rebuild damaged pipelines or construct new routes that bypass the vulnerable Strait of...
Iran: No Security for Persian Gulf Ports if Own Is Threatened
Iran warned that any threat to its Persian Gulf ports will trigger a collapse of regional shipping safety, effectively threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz to vessels linked to the U.S. blockade. Tehran called the U.S. naval restrictions illegal...
A Q&A About the ‘Petrodollar’
The petrodollar, a system forged in the 1970s that ties global oil sales to the U.S. dollar, remains a cornerstone of international finance. Recent Q&A highlights how sanctions, the rise of alternative currencies, and the shift toward renewable energy are...
Yuan’s ‘Golden Window’ Is Open, Former PBOC Governor Says as US Dollar Credibility Teeters
Former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that U.S. policy choices—tariffs, sanctions and geopolitical tensions—are weakening dollar credibility, creating a "golden window" for the yuan. He noted rising capital inflows are putting upward pressure on the renminbi and highlighted China’s 2009...
Asia Markets Trade Lower as Oil Surges After U.S. Moves to Blockade Iran Ports
Asian equity markets slipped on Monday as the United States moved toward a naval blockade of Iranian ports, reigniting fears of a protracted U.S.–Iran conflict. Crude prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate up 8.5% to $104.82 a barrel and Brent...
Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risks New Costs for the Global Economy
President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. Navy will begin a blockade of all vessels entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas. Iran has effectively shut...
How to Invest in Asian Markets – No Longer Just ‘Emerging’
Asian equities are no longer just “emerging” markets; China, South Korea and Taiwan now dominate the MSCI Asia ex‑Japan index, accounting for over 75% of its weight and more than 60% of the broader MSCI Emerging Markets basket. The region’s...
Reader Comments Open Forum, Week of April 13
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is driving a severe economic shock across the Gulf Cooperation Council, with Kuwait and Qatar facing up to 14% GDP contractions and tourism losses of $600 million per day. Regional stock markets have slumped, notably a 15% drop...
The Political Economy of Rwanda’s Rise
The new Cambridge University Press book "The Political Economy of Rwanda’s Rise" argues that Rwanda’s rapid growth over the past two decades stems from a services‑first strategy rather than traditional manufacturing‑led industrialisation. Fieldwork since 2011 and 580 interviews reveal the...
China Remains Resilient in the Face of Middle East Conflict, Says ADB Economist
China’s vast oil reserves and booming clean‑energy exports are cushioning its economy from the fallout of the Middle East conflict, according to Asian Development Bank senior economist Yothin Jinjarak. The country holds 1.2‑1.5 billion barrels of strategic oil stockpiles, enough for...
Why Trump’s Latest Threat Could Turn a Crisis Into an Emergency
President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy could block vessels from Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving a high‑risk escalation in a six‑week conflict. The threat sent Brent crude futures up roughly 8%, to $102.80 a barrel,...
We Are Stuck in a Currency Doom Loop
The Financial Times opinion piece titled "We are stuck in a currency doom loop" argues that many economies are caught in a self‑reinforcing cycle of currency weakness, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. It points to policy missteps, fragile fiscal...
New UK Steel Tariffs Threaten British Manufacturing, Industry Warns
Britain announced a sweeping steel protection plan that slashes import quotas by 60% and imposes tariffs of up to 50% on steel not made domestically. The measure aims to boost UK steel production to cover half of national demand and...
India Increases Use of Foreign Players to Move up Electronics Value Chain
India is accelerating the entry of foreign electronics manufacturers through partnerships and government‑backed incentive schemes. The strategy aims to lift the sector from low‑margin assembly toward higher‑value activities such as design, testing and component production. Companies like Japan’s TDK and...