Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Can Hong Kong, Target of the Most US Sanctions, Become China’s Quantum Gateway?
Hong Kong, the most US‑sanctioned Chinese territory with 340 blacklisted entities, is positioning itself as China’s quantum gateway through the Hetao Shenzhen‑Hong Kong Innovation Cooperation Zone. Chief scientist Guo Guoping of Origin Quantum says the zone will link mainland quantum research with global markets and foster joint projects, university ties, and export of quantum computing power. The Hong Kong Innovation, Technology and Industry Bureau reports over 70 AI and quantum firms already operating in the new twin‑park facilities. The push aims to build a resilient, diversified ecosystem despite U.S. export controls.
A Test of Wills in Iran
The United States and Iran failed to reach a cease‑fire agreement during talks in Pakistan, leaving their war unresolved. Washington pressed Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, curb its nuclear and missile programs, and halt support for proxy groups....
China's Tech Surge Outpaces West, Threatening Portfolios
Jason Huang explains how China is likely outpacing the West in tech generally. Well worth watching the full Lex Fridman podcast for the deeper insights whether you are a risk management student, or just a personal investor. This stuff is...
Rising Chinese Imports Squeeze Margins, Price Hikes Looming
China imports rose +23%YoY for Q1 2026 and March rose 28%YoY. Meanwhile, exports slowed to 2.5%YoY. In other words, Asia terms of trade is deteriorating and even is supposedly immune but you can see from PPI and now imports that costs...
Risk of LatAm Fiscal Slippage Grows as Iran War Drags On
Latin American governments face mounting fiscal pressure as the protracted Iran‑Israel conflict keeps global oil prices elevated. Higher energy costs are eroding household purchasing power, prompting policymakers to consider subsidies that could swell public deficits. At the same time, many...
China’s New Bank Lending Slows as Household Credit Halves
Caixin: "The slowdown in China's new bank lending was driven largely by household credit, which rose 490.9 billion yuan in March, nearly halving from 988.8 billion yuan a year earlier." https://t.co/8VQxfrVL2I
China's March Exports Strong Despite Modest Trade Surplus
China's March trade numbers are stronger than they appear at first glance. Strong imports pulled down the trade surplus, but export performance was actually strong -- last year's March base created a high hurdle for the y/y comparisons 1/ many https://t.co/OmqlCGNNNd
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: US-Iran Eye More Talks (Podcast)
Asian stocks rose as artificial‑intelligence shares regained momentum, while Middle‑East tensions eased after President Donald Trump signaled openness to renewed talks with Iran. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $97.85 a barrel as the United States and Iran explored a fresh...
China’s Real Focus: Gulf Trade, Not Iranian Oil
China may buy Iran’s oil—but its real bet is the Gulf, writes @glcarlstrom Far more trade, far more investment. No way Beijing risks that for a few discounted barrels. #Oil #China #Geopolitics
AUD/USD Jumps to 0.709 as US‑Iran Talks Spark Aussie Rally
The AUD/USD pair surged to 0.7089, rebounding from a 0.6990 low, after President Donald Trump signaled renewed US‑Iran negotiations. The rally lifted the commodity‑linked Australian dollar and pressured the US Dollar Index, highlighting how geopolitics can swing forex markets.
Asian Markets Slip as Oil Surges Past $100 and Middle East Tensions Rise
Asian stock markets traded lower on Monday after oil prices topped $100 a barrel and U.S. President Donald Trump warned of a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The Nikkei 225 slipped below 56,400, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.48%, and regional...
Juicyway Secures FCA Licence, Launches UK‑Africa Payments Corridor
Juicyway has been granted an Authorised Payment Institution licence by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, clearing the regulatory hurdle to launch remittance, multi‑currency and FX services for the African diaspora. The approval positions the fintech to tap a corridor that...
The Strategic Logic of Xi’s Historic Meeting with Taiwan’s Cheng Li-Wun
On April 12, 2026, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li‑wun in Beijing, marking a historic dialogue between the Communist Party and Taiwan’s main opposition. The meeting coincided with Beijing’s rollout of a 10‑point policy package that restores direct...
Closed Strait Gets Blockaded, Leaving Global Economy In Danger Zone...
The United States Navy launched a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut the waterway last week, intensifying a standoff that began with failed cease‑fire talks. Washington’s move is intended to cripple Iran’s ability to sell oil and...
China Expands Extraterritorial Reach with New Regulation
A little ironic, since China has itself is applying its own laws and regulations extraterritorially. But this seems significant to me as another tool in Beijing's arsenal: 中华人民共和国国务院令 第835号: 中华人民共和国反外国不当域外管辖条例.https://t.co/T6FFDqCYKN
Singapore Must Resist Insular Policies, Deepen Ties with Trusted Partners Amid Geopolitical Fragmentation: DPM Gan
Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong warned Singapore against turning inward as global economic policies grow more insular, urging deeper ties with trusted partners. He announced the launch of Enterprise Singapore's fourth U.S. overseas centre in Austin, the first non‑coastal...
Foreign Firms Earn 53‑fold Profit on Zimbabwe Lithium, Sparking Controversy
Multinational miners are making up to $20,000 per tonne from Zimbabwe lithium exports, a 53‑fold markup over the $370 production cost. The windfall has ignited a dispute between foreign firms, the Zimbabwean government and local workers over revenue sharing and...
Emerging Markets Fall 13% in March, 11% Behind Wall Street
International equity indices slumped in March 2026, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index down 13.1% and the MSCI EAFE index down 10.2%, leaving them 11% behind the S&P 500's 5% loss. The divergence was driven by soaring energy prices, a...
Nikkei Falls 0.7% as Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 421 points, or 0.7%, as crude oil prices jumped and geopolitical risk from the Middle East intensified. The decline pulled down other Asian equities, while a few stocks such as Nitto Boseki rallied more than 5%.
Kyrgyz Officials in Washington Seeking Investment
Kyrgyz officials unveiled the Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory, a 6,000‑hectare special economic zone near Lake Issyk‑Kul designed to compete with Kazakhstan’s Astana Hub and Uzbekistan’s IT Park. Construction began in February, and the zone will operate under a British‑common‑law...
CCP Using ‘Carrot and Stick’ Strategy: Experts
Chinese military activity around Taiwan surged to a peak on the day KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li‑wun met President Xi, underscoring Beijing’s “carrot and stick” approach that blends diplomatic overtures with coercive pressure. The Chinese government announced ten preferential measures for Taiwan,...
Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The Complex Regional Realities the US Ignores at Its Peril
President Donald Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, halting Iranian port traffic. The narrow waterway moves roughly 20% of global oil—about 18 million barrels a day, worth over $1 trillion annually—so the blockade threatens to spike crude...
Xi to Meet Vietnam Leader as Hormuz Blockade Risks Energy Flows
Vietnam’s new president To Lam will meet Xi Jinping in Beijing to cement deeper energy, infrastructure and telecom ties as the Iran‑driven Hormuz blockade threatens oil supplies. The agenda includes a possible VietJet‑Comac aircraft deal, metro construction contracts and expanded rail investment,...
China May Pressure Iran to Reopen Strait Amid Oil Shortage
Assuming Iran has no intention of conceding, and Israel has no contention of conceding, and Trump will claim victory no matter what… what are Vegas odds China will need to pressure Iran to open the strait and if so by...
Xi’s Petroyuan Dream Gets New Life From Trump’s War in Iran
The Iran‑Israel war has revived interest in a Chinese "petroyuan" as Tehran began accepting yuan for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. A Chinese‑affiliated scholar noted a surge in yuan‑denominated crude, and the Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)...
War Has Sanctioned Russian LNG Booming
Russia’s Novatek has begun offering cargoes from its Arctic LNG 2 project to buyers in South Asia, despite the facility being subject to U.S., EU and UK sanctions. The shipments are priced at discounts of up to 40 % versus current spot‑market...
Global Shocks Are Back: Emerging Markets Holding Up
The latest U.S. Federal Reserve tightening in 2022‑23, despite raising rates over five percentage points, did not trigger the financial crises that historically followed such moves in emerging markets. Researchers attribute this resilience to two structural improvements: higher monetary‑policy credibility,...
Nomura Sees 60% Chance of BSP Rate Hikes
Nomura estimates a 60% chance that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will raise its benchmark rate this year, potentially adding 0.5 percentage points. The first quarter‑point hike could be announced at the April 23 Monetary Board meeting, with a second increase...
Wall Street Is the Biggest Winner of the Iran War—And the S&P 500 Just Turned Positive for the Year
Wall Street rallied on Monday as the S&P 500 jumped 1.02% to 6,886, wiping out every loss incurred since the Iran war began on Feb. 28. A brief X post by a New York Post reporter about tentative nuclear‑deal talks...
Iran Blockade Tests Which Side Can Endure More Pain
Fascinating wargame playing out in real time. We shall see who blinks: “Iran Blockade Sets Up a Test of Which Side Can Endure More Pain” https://t.co/PfxFdyBELR via @NYTimes
Iran War; US-China; Xi Meets KMT Chair; Li on the Economy; Countering Unlawful Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Measures
China has expressed strong displeasure over the United States’ blockade of Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, warning that a prolonged restriction could exacerbate stress on its own economy as many of those ships carry Chinese cargo. The Crown...
BRICS Payment System – What Does It Mean for the Nordics?
The article examines the BRICS countries’ effort to build a cross‑border payment system that could be operational by 2029‑2030, offering an alternative to Western‑controlled settlement rails. It notes the New Development Bank’s role, having approved over $42.9 billion in loans and...
Oil Breaches $100 a Barrel, Sending Latin American Currencies Tumbling
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel after U.S.–Iran talks collapsed, lifting prices about 6% and prompting a sharp sell‑off in Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso. Colombia’s peso held steadier, and Peru’s sol edged higher, underscoring how oil spikes create...
OPEC Says Middle East Oil Output Plummets 27% in March Amid Iran Conflict
OPEC announced that Middle East crude production fell 27% in March, dropping from 28.7 million to 20.8 million barrels per day. The plunge, driven by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, follows U.S. and Israeli strikes that effectively shut the Strait...
MENA Startup Funding Slips to $941 Million in Q1 2026 Amid Heightened Geopolitical Risk
Startup funding in the Middle East and North Africa slipped to $941 million in Q1 2026, a 21.5% quarter‑on‑quarter decline and a 37% drop year‑on‑year as geopolitical tensions escalated. The UAE dominated the market with $625.8 million across 46 deals, while Saudi Arabia...
Geopolitical Tensions Offer Buying Opportunities, Says Yardeni
Ed Yardeni tells CNBC that geopolitical events are buying opportunities, even as Trump announces plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/L0aaO4wMJK
Dollar Resists Petrodollar Collapse, Fueled by U.S. Counterattack
The “petrodollar collapse” story gets it backwards. China was eroding it slowly. The Iran war just forced the U.S. back into the game. Control flows, control currency. The storm is real. The dollar isn’t dying—it’s fighting back. https://t.co/7oWpaZUa7T
Why Did Wang Yi Go to North Korea? China’s 3 Strategic Calculations
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi made an unannounced two‑day trip to Pyongyang on April 9‑10, meeting both Kim Jong Un and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. The visit was timed to temper Pyongyang’s recent missile tests and to smooth the diplomatic environment ahead of...
Chevron to Secure New Western Venezuelan Oil Fields
#Venezuela: Chevron is set to expand its oil footprint in Venezuela. The government in Caracas will award the company additional oil fields in Western Venezuela as soon as Monday, sources tell @zerpius @CrowleyKev and me ahead of an expected announcement https://t.co/L9MMsDKfTs
FSB Chair Warns of Rising Financial Risks Stemming From Middle East Conflict
Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey warned G20 ministers that the Middle East conflict is amplifying existing financial vulnerabilities. He highlighted the risk of a "double or triple whammy" as stretched asset valuations, concentrated non‑bank leverage and liquidity mismatches converge...
US Blocks Iran Oil to China, Marking Escalation
The US is now effectively blockading China’s oil supplies from Iran. This is a nontrivial escalation.
US Deficit and China’s Stalled Consumption Fuel Imbalances
If not the dollar, what are the main major drivers of current account imbalances today? - Unsustainable US federal budget outlook - China's failure to shift its economy further toward a non-deflationary, consumption-driven growth model by Maury Obstfeld https://t.co/jaLG9xmKuP
China’s AI IPO Surge Fueled by New ‘Token’ Settlement Unit
China’s National Data Administration unveiled a token‑based settlement unit, linking AI supply with commercial demand, as Hong Kong AI IPOs climb to a five‑year peak. Start‑ups like MiniMax and Zhipu AI report double‑digit revenue growth, while big tech firms race...
Bernstein Launches MENA Energy Coverage, Flags ADNOC Gas and Fertiglobe as Top Picks
Global equity research firm Bernstein has begun sell‑side coverage of the Middle East and North Africa energy sector, assigning an Outperform rating and a price target of AED 4.08 ($1.11) to ADNOC Gas and AED 3.66 ($1.00) to Fertiglobe. The firm cites the...
Cambodia Leverages 60% Renewable Power and ASEAN Grid Links to Hedge Against Global Shocks
The Asian Development Bank highlighted that more than 60% of Cambodia’s electricity now comes from renewable sources and its expanding role in the ASEAN power grid will act as a buffer against external economic shocks. The outlook underscores a model...
Brazil’s Fintech Boom: Pix Handles 80 B Transactions, Nubank Hits 131 M Users
Brazil’s fintech sector, valued at $5.5 bn in 2025, is being driven by the Central Bank’s Pix system, which processed 79.8 bn transactions last year, and digital‑bank leader Nubank, now serving 131 m customers. The rapid adoption is displacing credit cards, expanding internationally,...
China Bond Yields Drop as Reflation Narrative Faces Investor Skepticism
Investors betting on a China reflation trade saw sovereign bond yields slide, with the one-year benchmark down 5.5 basis points over three weeks and the 10-year down 1.6 bps. The move underscores lingering doubts about demand recovery even as producer...
Global Downgrades Unwind India’s Premium, Cap Market Upside
Global brokerages including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Citi and Bernstein have downgraded India from overweight to neutral, trimming Nifty targets by 10‑15% as earnings recovery stalls. The revisions reflect heightened energy costs, supply disruptions and a reassessment of India’s risk‑reward profile...
Iran War Tests BRICS — And Reveals Its Limits
More than two months after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the conflict is edging toward a fragile cease‑fire, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global fuel and food prices soaring. BRICS – Brazil,...
Turkey's Currency Intervention Masks Pre‑Existing Current‑Account Deficit
Turkey obviously intervened heavily to limit depreciation pressure (and an inflationary shock) in March (and I guess bought a bit of fx back last week). But Turkey's real problem is that its current account deficit was widening even before the oil...