Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Investors Question 60/40 Portfolio as Market Volatility Persists
Amid heightened volatility and a protracted war in Iran, investors are reexamining the long‑standing 60/40 equity‑bond split. Wealth managers and robo‑advisors face pressure to adapt diversification tactics as the historic correlation between stocks and bonds weakens.
Traders Bet $760 Million on Oil Decline Ahead of Iran’s Hormuz Announcement
Traders collectively placed $760 million in short positions on oil futures and options ahead of an expected Iranian announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The bet reflects market anxiety over potential supply disruptions and underscores the role of derivatives in managing...
Econet Launches Zimbabwe’s First Enterprise‑grade AI Cloud Platform
Econet Wireless has launched Econet AI, a new business unit that offers the Cassava AiCloud platform powered by NVIDIA GPUs hosted in South Africa. The service gives Zimbabwean companies access to enterprise‑grade artificial‑intelligence computing without building their own data centres,...
Asian Currencies Squeezed by US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict as Oil and LNG Prices Spike
The escalation of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed oil to $110‑$116 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering inflation, industrial slowdown and sharp foreign‑exchange pressure across Asia. Central banks in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines face tighter conditions as...
JSE Lists Africa’s First Nature‑Linked Bond Tied to Water‑Security Outcomes
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has listed a R2.5 bn ($135 m) performance‑based bond issued by FirstRand Bank that links investor returns to verified ecological restoration in Western Cape water catchments. The structure blends commercial capital, development finance and philanthropy, creating a new...
Asian Markets Split as Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI Drop on Falling Oil After US‑Iran Ceasefire Hopes
Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and South Korea's KOSPI all posted losses on Friday, dragged by a 7.5% plunge in Brent crude after a tentative US‑Iran ceasefire. The divergent equity moves highlight how quickly Asian markets react to...
Iran's Hormuz Control Threatens Global Energy Security
Security of Global Energy System Hinges on Iran If Iran asserts sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the dominoes begin to fall as other supply chokepoints are contested. PS - This morning, Iran resumed control of tanker traffic in the Strait #iranwar https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/security-of-global-energy-system
Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve...
How the Middle East Crisis Chokes East Africa’s Revenue Lifeline
The US‑Israel war on Iran has driven up global crude prices, sending East African fuel costs soaring. Governments in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia rely on multiple taxes that can represent up to half of pump prices, sparking public...
Fitch Warns Iran-Israel War Spikes Energy Costs, Tightens Financing for Emerging Markets
Fitch Ratings warned on April 17 that the Iran‑Israel war is adding fresh pressure on emerging market sovereigns, pushing the net balance of outlooks to negative for the first time since the conflict began. Higher energy import costs, fiscal subsidy...
STI Dips 0.2% to 4,998 as Traders Await US‑Iran Ceasefire Extension
Singapore's Straits Times Index slipped 0.2% to 4,997.93 points on April 17, reflecting investor caution ahead of the April 21 deadline on the US‑Iran ceasefire extension. The market saw $2.1 billion in trades, while regional peers also retreated, underscoring the geopolitical...
Kongsberg Satellite Services Licensed to Operate 42 Chinese Military Satellites
Kongsberg Satellite Services (KSAT), owned by NATO contractor Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, secured Norwegian licences to communicate with 42 Chang Guang Satellite Technology (CGSTL) satellites, a company linked to China’s military. The move raises questions about dual‑use space services amid...
Autoliv Shares Surge 10% as Q1 Beats Forecast on Asian Demand and Margin Resilience
Autoliv Inc. reported first‑quarter net sales of $2.753 billion, a 6.8% rise year‑over‑year, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.05, beating consensus estimates. The results were driven by a 30% jump in China sales and a 38% organic surge in India,...
Middle East Conflict Deepens Hunger in East Africa
The six‑week Iran‑Israel‑US war is choking fertilizer, fuel and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, driving a 68% surge in global urea prices and forcing East African farmers to cut or forgo planting for the 2026‑27 harvest. Higher input...
Trump Rejects ‘Blackmail’ by Tehran as Iranian Military Shuts Hormuz Again
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps re‑established tight control over the Strait of Hormuz, demanding the United States lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports before the waterway is reopened. The move followed IRGC gunboats firing on a tanker and a...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
Brazil's Lula Calls for P5 Conduct Reform
JUST IN: Lula from Brazil urges the UN Security Council's permanent members to reform their conduct.
Rolls‑Royce CEO Charts Course Amid Tariffs and Middle East Tensions
Rolls‑Royce Motor Cars chief executive Chris Brownridge told FOX Business that the brand is actively shaping its strategy to offset tariff volatility and geopolitical strain in the Middle East. The interview highlighted the maker’s focus on preserving its premium positioning...
Trust Deficit Drives Fragmented, Fluid Global Supply Chains
World order and trade. What are they when trust is lacking? When countries look at their needs against that backdrop? Risk not resilience will be key. Fragmentation. Supply chains must have manageable, dynamic fluidity. 2nd and 3rd orders will be...
Iranian Navy Closes Strait, Reports Gunfire Amid Peace Talks
Iran's Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire. Will there be a negotiated peace? https://t.co/SmiW8IKxcq
Maase Inc. Completes $152 Million Huazhi Group Deal, Stock Jumps 32%
Maase Inc. finalized the acquisition of China’s Huazhi Group for roughly $152 million, issuing 87.4 million Class A shares and paying cash. The deal propelled the Nasdaq‑listed stock up more than 31% to $9.84, underscoring investor appetite for the company’s AI‑focused pivot.
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
Iran Tightens Hormuz, US Blockade Stalls Peace Prospects
Iran reimposed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as US continues blockade of Iran ports. Are there peace negotiations while this happens? Is either side meaningful when it comes to peace? And the global economy?
India Launches Inaugural BRICS Academic Forum in New Delhi to Boost Emerging‑Market Policy Dialogue
The Observer Research Foundation and the Research and Information System for Developing Countries convened the inaugural BRICS Academic Forum in New Delhi on April 17‑18. The two‑day event, part of India’s 2026 BRICS chairmanship, gathered scholars and policymakers to shape...
EU Jet Fuel Imports From Nigeria and the U.S. Jump in April as Middle East Supplies Falter
European airlines have accelerated jet‑fuel imports from Nigeria and the United States in April, seeking to offset a sharp drop in Middle‑East deliveries after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The shift comes as the International Energy Agency warns Europe may...
Iran Shuts Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Flow
‼️ HAPPENING NOW: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US refuses to end blockade. Global oil supply route could be at risk again https://t.co/yrGUN6Izcw
Iran-Israel War Sends Asian Nations Rethinking LNG Expansion as Prices Double
The Iran‑Israel conflict has driven LNG prices in Asia up more than 100% and pushed imports to six‑year lows, prompting governments from India to Bangladesh to scale back or delay new liquefied natural gas projects. Analysts warn the shock could...
Bolivia Drafts New Hydrocarbons Law to Lure Foreign Oil and Gas Investment
Bolivia's government, led by President Rodrigo Paz, has finalized a draft hydrocarbons law designed to attract foreign investors and revive its oil and gas sector. The proposal promises competitive fiscal terms, streamlined contracts and a stronger role for state‑owned YPFB,...
10-Day Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Takes Hold as Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump announced a 10‑day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, calling it a historic day for Lebanon. At the same time Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial traffic, even as the U.S....
Iran Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed Amid US Port Blockade
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
ASEAN, Inc.: +19.5% Annually Since December 31, 2024 — The Quiet Outperformer in a Noisy World
ASEAN, Inc., a basket of seven U.S.-listed ETFs covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the region’s 40 largest firms, has delivered a total return of +25.7% (annualized +19.5%) since December 31, 2024. The portfolio’s outperformance is anchored by Vietnam’s...
Week Signals: Out of the Box Thinking
The weekly Geopolitical Dispatch notes that Iran has signaled the reopening of its designated shipping lane near Larak Island, hinting at a possible end to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude futures dropped 10% after the announcement,...
Rwanda Secures $251m Low-Cost Loan for Projects, Budget
Rwanda has secured a €213 million ($251 million) 15‑year low‑cost loan from Société Générale and Standard Chartered, backed by an IDA guarantee and a six‑year grace period. The financing will fund infrastructure projects and provide budget support as the country seeks to...
Lutnick Shuts Down Talk of Any Chinese Investment in US Autos
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a Semafor audience that Chinese automakers, including BYD, will not be allowed to invest in U.S. auto manufacturing, responding with a firm “no.” He reiterated the stance in remarks to Bloomberg, saying “not cars,...
A Bet on Brazil's Bright Future
Investors have largely shrugged off the escalating Middle East crisis, keeping global equities flat despite heightened geopolitical risk. The turmoil is sharpening focus on energy security, which could lift commodity prices and benefit resource‑rich economies. Brazil, with its strong biofuel...
WEBINAR (04/21/2026): Saudi Arabia in the Age of Mohammed Bin Salman
The Small Wars Journal is hosting a live webinar on April 21, 2026, featuring AFP reporter Anuj Chopra, author of an upcoming book that profiles Saudi Arabia through nine distinct characters. The session runs from 12‑1 pm ET and will explore the kingdom’s transformation...
EBID and Guinea Seal Strategic Partnership to Drive Economic Transformation
The ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) and Guinea signed a memorandum of understanding on April 8, 2026, committing over €310.5 million (≈ $387.9 million) to six priority projects. The initiatives, part of Guinea’s Simandou 2040 plan, target transport, renewable energy, agriculture, land administration...
US Renews Russian Oil License, Boosting Putin Amid Iran War
Having said two days ago that the U.S. wouldn’t renew a general license easing Russian oil sanctions, the @USTreasury did exactly the opposite: renew it. Vladimir Putin keeps benefiting from the U.S.-Iran war: higher prices and American sanctions waivers. Double...
Strategic Autonomy or Ambiguity? India’s Gulf Dilemma
India’s Gulf policy is marked by cautious strategic autonomy amid the Iran‑Israel‑US crisis. New Delhi’s reliance on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz, deep economic ties with Gulf states, and a sizable diaspora constrain overt diplomatic action. While Pakistan...
Trump Eyes "Historic" China Summit as Xi Welcomes Hormuz Reopening
President Donald Trump announced an imminent summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, branding it "historic" as both leaders discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz and bolstering regional energy security. Trump highlighted Xi’s satisfaction with mine‑clearance efforts and signaled that the...
The “Eager Iran” Lie
Jack Hopkins argues the U.S. narrative that Iran is eager for a nuclear deal is a deliberate falsehood. Over the past year, officials have repeatedly claimed talks were "very close" while Iran consistently refused to end enrichment, dismantle facilities, or...
RBI's Special Credit Line Pushes Indian Rupee Near 92.70 per Dollar
The Reserve Bank of India opened a special credit line for state‑run oil refiners on Thursday, prompting the rupee to rise to around 92.70 per U.S. dollar. The move curbs spot dollar purchases by oil importers and supports a broader...
Nigeria’s Digital Payments Surge, but Fraud Losses Top $110 M
Nigeria’s digital payment ecosystem has expanded more than 300% since 2019, processing trillions of naira each month. At the same time, fraud losses have surged past ₦52 billion ($113 million), exposing gaps in security. Regulators and banks are now racing to align...
Why China Is Urgently Looking to North Africa as the Energy Crisis Rolls On
China is accelerating its North African investments as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, turning long‑term Belt and Road projects into urgent energy‑security measures. Beijing is committing billions to infrastructure, including a $4.7 bn El Hamdania megaport in Algeria, a $6.5 bn...
IMF Forecasts Resilient Global Growth Through 2025
Explaining the Resilience of Global Growth in 2025 from the IMF. Lower tariffs or other variables? More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/54emD8YVH4
Mideast Diplomatic Optimism Trims Indian Rupee Options Volatility and Hedging Costs
Indian rupee options saw implied volatility and hedging premiums fall after renewed diplomatic hopes in the Middle East bolstered the Reserve Bank of India's recent rupee‑support measures. The easing reflects reduced market anxiety and cheaper protection for exporters and importers.
Pacific Island Leaders Demand Real Finance for Fossil‑Fuel‑Free Transition
At a ministerial dialogue in Port Vila, Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) leaders demanded unencumbered climate finance to achieve their 100% renewable energy goals. Tuvalu’s climate minister and Palau’s environment minister warned that without real money, the islands risk...
Indian Sensex Jumps 505 Points as Ceasefire Optimism and $46 M FII Inflow Boost Markets
The BSE Sensex surged 504.86 points to 78,493.54 and the NSE Nifty rose 156.80 points to 24,353.55 on Friday. Traders cited a temporary Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire and fresh foreign institutional inflows of roughly $46 million as the main catalysts, lifting large‑cap stocks...
The Real Outcome of the Iran War: America Is Now the World’s Most Secure ...
The United States is leveraging the Iran‑Hormuz standoff to reposition itself as a secure, domestic energy supplier while channeling capital back to American markets. Oil futures have slipped into the low $70s‑$80s as the strait shows signs of reopening, prompting...
Analysis: IDX, OJK to Restore Investor Confidence Ahead of MSCI Review
Indonesia’s stock exchange has lifted the minimum free‑float requirement to 15%, double the prior 7.5%, to satisfy MSCI’s concerns about liquidity and price manipulation. The Financial Services Authority (OJK) is pairing the change with broader reforms, including expanding shareholder classifications...