Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
FII-DII Data: FIIs Turn Net Buyers for Three Straight Sessions in Indian Stock Market; Can the Buying Streak Continue?
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in India’s cash market for three consecutive sessions, purchasing ₹683.20 cr ($82 m) on April 17, ₹382.36 cr ($46 m) on April 16 and ₹666.15 cr ($80 m) on April 15. This brief reversal follows months of outflows, with FIIs having sold roughly ₹39,224 cr ($473 m) in April 2026 alone. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued net selling over the same days, offloading ₹4,721 cr ($57 m) on April 17, but remain net buyers for the year, adding ₹29,697 cr ($358 m) YTD. Analysts attribute the short‑term buying to RBI’s intervention that steadied the rupee from ₹95.30 to ₹92.85 per dollar and to Brent crude’s dip to $90, though they caution that a sustained trend requires broader macro improvements.
Asia Growth Forecasts Slashed as Iran War and Tariffs Threaten Supply Chains
International organisations have trimmed Asia‑Pacific growth outlooks as the US‑Israel war on Iran and lingering trade tensions raise costs and disrupt supply chains. The IMF now sees emerging and developing Asia expanding 4.9% in 2024, down from a 5.5% projection...
War and Outcome of Talks Dictate the Energy Markets – Petcoke Back in Expensive Zone Towards Coal
A cease‑fire between the United States and Iran has eased immediate oil market pressure, yet transport disruptions and damaged Middle‑East infrastructure keep the energy complex volatile. Brent crude sits at $92 per barrel, while coal prices have fallen sharply after...
South Korea's Lee to Seek Big Boost in Economic Ties in Summit with PM Modi
President Lee Jae Myung’s state visit to New Delhi, the first in eight years, aims to dramatically expand South Korea‑India economic ties. Officials target a near‑doubling of bilateral trade to $50 bn by 2030, up from $25.7 bn, while addressing a $12.8 bn...
The G-2’s Missing Link
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to meet in Beijing in mid‑May 2026, a summit that follows their first face‑to‑face G‑2 encounter in South Korea last year. The term “G‑2” has sparked debate among allies,...
India’s Consumer Sector Sees Funding Dip but Deal Activity Surges in FY26
India’s consumer sector saw total funding drop to about $8.5 billion in FY26, down from $9.8 billion the prior year. At the same time, deal volume surged to 510 transactions, the highest since the pandemic, indicating a shift toward smaller, diversified investments....
PayTabs Acquires UAE's TAPn’GO to Boost Contactless Payments in MENA
PayTabs Group has completed the acquisition of TAPn’GO, a UAE‑based contactless payment platform, to embed real‑time transaction capabilities into its unified payment orchestration suite. The deal comes as mobile‑driven digital payments accelerate across the MENA region.
Rowan Street Management Posts 19.8% Q1 Loss as Macro Volatility Surges
Rowan Street Management disclosed a 19.8% loss for the first quarter of 2026, versus a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500. The fund’s concentrated, long‑term approach amplified short‑term volatility, though internal estimates suggest a partial recovery to a 10% year‑to‑date...
Washington's Renewed Russian Oil Sanctions Waiver Will Help Their Shared Indian Partner
The U.S. Treasury Department renewed its waiver on Russian oil sanctions, allowing India to continue importing Russian crude for another month. India’s purchases jumped to roughly 1.98 million barrels per day in March, bolstering its 6.5% GDP growth trajectory. The move...
Latin America’s Mixed PMI and Retail Data Reveal Uneven Recovery
Latin American economies released a patchwork of PMI, CPI and retail sales figures this week, highlighting divergent momentum across the region. Brazil’s Focus survey and FX flows, Mexico’s February retail sales, and Colombia’s trade numbers each painted a different picture,...
Pakistan Eyes $1.2 Bn IMF Tranche to Ease Liquidity Pressures
Pakistan's finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the IMF Executive Board will meet in mid‑May to approve a staff‑level agreement that could unlock a $1.2 bn tranche. The funds are expected to relieve acute liquidity pressures and support the country's balance‑of‑payments position.
Autoliv Q1 2026 Revenue Up 6.8% to $2.75B, China & India Drive Growth
Autoliv (NYSE:ALV) posted first‑quarter 2026 revenue of $2.75 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase, and non‑GAAP earnings of $2.05 per share, beating consensus by 11.4%. The growth was anchored by strong sales in China and India, even as the company faced margin...
Iran‑Hormuz Standoff Sends U.S. Stocks Tumbling as Oil Nears $90
Traders brace for volatility as Iran warned ships in the Strait of Hormuz would be treated as cease‑fire violators, sending oil prices toward $90 and eroding gains in the S&P 500.
How Oman Is Converting Geopolitical Instability Into Permanent Strategic Architecture
Oman is turning recent geopolitical turbulence—particularly the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea and the Hormuz crisis—into a catalyst for long‑term strategic infrastructure. Muscat has fast‑tracked expansions at the deep‑water port of Duqm, added new free‑zone incentives, and secured multimillion‑dollar...
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
Taiwan Fights Chip Boom to Protect Undervalued Currency
Taiwan's willingness to do absolutely anything and everything to keep the chip boom from putting pressure on the wildly undervalued Taiwan dollar is unw=matched ... 1/ https://t.co/yVjNKHd7ci
IMF Warns US Debt Surge Erodes Treasury Safety Premium, Threatens Emerging Market Financing
The International Monetary Fund warned that the rapid rise in US debt is compressing the safety premium of Treasury bonds, pushing up global borrowing costs. The erosion could trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, tightening financing conditions for those economies.
US Blockade Pressures All, Targets Iran Most
Exactly. And this is why this US blockade is genius because it means it won't be just the Iranians that will benefit when it's partially open. The pressure cooker is on for everyone equally, especially Iran.
Global Finance Rattles: UAE, Debt Warnings,
UAE just threatened to ditch the dollar. A former Treasury Secretary is warning of a "vicious" debt crisis. Bitcoin pulled back after hitting $78k last week. Strategy is proposing to pay STRC dividends twice a month. New News Block is live....
China Posts 5% Q1 GDP Growth, Sparking Fresh Foreign Interest in Asian Shares
China's National Bureau of Statistics announced a 5% year‑on‑year GDP increase in Q1 2026, reaching 33.4 trillion yuan (about $4.8 trillion). The data prompted international buyers at the Canton Fair to voice renewed confidence in China's economic outlook, a signal that...
US Trade Rep Greer Arrives in Mexico for USMCA Review
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has landed in Mexico City for meetings tomorrow related to the USMCA review. He was received at the airport by Economy Minister @m_ebrard and undersecretary @LuisRosendo_ (Video from Mexico's economy ministry) https://t.co/iweEQKUuJO
US Weakens, China and Russia Gain Power Post‑War
My view on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran w/ @MarioNawfal: "In the Great Geopolitical Game, one great power is going to become weaker: the United States. And two great powers are going to become stronger: China and Russia."...
Yassir Launches North Africa’s First Retail Media Network, Tapping 10 Million Users
Algeria’s Yassir has announced the rollout of North Africa’s first retail media network, leveraging data from 10 million users across rides, delivery, payments and physical stores. The platform, built after acquiring Paris‑based ad‑tech firm Kawarizmi and hypermarket chain UNO, aims at...
As World Clamors for Its Critical Minerals, Kazakhstan Ups Control and Seeks Bigger Cut
Kazakhstan is tightening control over its critical‑minerals sector by amending tax, royalty and sub‑soil laws, aiming to secure a larger share of future profits. New royalty rates, effective for licences granted after 2027, are roughly double those in Western Australia,...
Sembcorp-Becamex JV Aims for 30 VSIPs by Year-End- #BeltAndRoad #Economy #Infrastructure
The Singapore‑Vietnam joint venture Sembcorp‑Becamex plans to operate 30 Vietnam Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) sites by the end of 2026, up from 21 currently. The 22nd park will be built in Hue City, while a new licence secured for Khanh Hoa...
Rebalancing the Chinese Economy
China is shifting its growth model from an investment‑ and export‑driven engine to a more consumption‑focused, high‑tech economy. Over the past decade the investment share of GDP fell from 47% to 41%, while consumption rose to about 57% of output....
Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran...
The Strait that Shook the World
The ongoing conflict in the Gulf has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 30% of global fertilizer exports and 20% of liquefied natural gas flow. The Gulf region produces about 40% of the world’s exported urea...
U.S. Dollar Falls as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Spur Risk‑On Trading
The U.S. dollar slipped against the euro and yen after diplomatic signals raised hopes for a ceasefire in Iran. Traders moved out of safe‑haven assets into equities and emerging‑market bets, prompting a broader risk‑on rally.
IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% Amid Middle East Oil Shock
The International Monetary Fund reduced its 2026 global growth projection to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing a sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East war. The downgrade comes with a higher inflation outlook and a range of downside scenarios that could...
China's 5% Q1 GDP Boost Sends Iron Ore to $114.79/ton
China reported 5% first‑quarter GDP growth, prompting iron ore prices to climb to $114.79 per ton on April 16, 2026. The rally reflects expectations of stronger steel demand and tighter supply amid Chinese output cuts.
SJ Semiconductor to Begin Trading on Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 21
SJ Semiconductor announced it will commence trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 21, marking the latest addition of a domestic chipmaker to China's A‑share market. The debut underscores Beijing's push to grow its semiconductor sector and offers fresh...
Germany's Merz, Brazil's Lula Stress Close European-Brazilian Cooperation
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula met at the Hanover industrial fair to promote deeper EU‑Brazil ties. They welcomed the EU‑Mercosur free‑trade agreement, which came into force on May 1, 2026, and highlighted Brazil’s vast mineral wealth, including the...
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
The Challenge of Building an African Consumer Brand Abroad
ReelFruit, the Nigerian dried‑fruit snack maker founded by Affiong Williams, has landed distribution agreements in Europe and a major retail partner in the United States, expanding both branded and bulk exports. The move helps the company earn dollars as the...
UAE Threatens Oil Trade Shift to Yuan over USD Shortage
UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY...
UAE Holds Strong Reserves Amid Unreported Figures, Seeks Swap Line
Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line -- the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians 1/ https://t.co/5Q61nzi68P
Iran War Derails India’s IMEC & INSTC Trade Routes: Hormuz Closure Pauses Delhi’s Connectivity Ambitions
The escalating Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has forced the Strait of Hormuz shut, halting progress on India’s flagship land‑sea corridors – the India‑Middle East‑Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the International North‑South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Both projects rely on Iranian cooperation and Gulf‑side...
China Vows to Weaponize Oil Embargo Against US
American strategists: “We are going to cut off China’s oil, thereby wrecking China.” China’s response? Geopolitical/oil politics version of Good Will Hunting: “Give us the wrench…because f*ck them. That’s why.”
Middle East Crisis Live: US Officials to Travel to Pakistan for Talks as Trump Warns US Will ‘Knock Out’ Every...
The Trump administration announced that a U.S. delegation, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, will travel to Islamabad for a new round of Iran peace talks. Trump warned on Truth Social that if Iran rejects the proposed deal,...
India’s March Crude Oil Imports Lowest in 5 Years as West Asia Conflict Chokes Key Transit Route
India’s crude oil imports fell to 18.9 million tonnes in March, the lowest level in five years, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted about 30 % of cargoes that normally transit the route. Imports dropped 2.6 % month‑on‑month and...
African Finance Chiefs Seek Emergency Funding as US‑Iran War Threatens Currency Stability
African finance ministers and central bank governors convened on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings to request emergency financing, citing the US‑Iran war’s impact on fuel prices, supply chains and foreign aid. Angola, the Republic of...
IndiGo Invests $1.2 M in Bengaluru eVTOL Startup Sarla Aviation Ahead of Commercial Launch
IndiGo Ventures has invested ₹10 crore ($1.2 million) in Bengaluru‑based eVTOL startup Sarla Aviation, accelerating the company's plan to launch a six‑passenger air‑taxi service for middle‑distance travel across India. The funding, part of a round led by Accel and Nikhil Kamath, positions Sarla...
SBI Forecasts India’s FY27 GDP at 6.8‑7.1% Amid Oil Shock and Geopolitical Tensions
State Bank of India’s research arm projects India’s FY27 GDP growth at 6.8‑7.1% despite a sharp Brent crude rally to $90 a barrel and ongoing West Asia tensions. The outlook builds on FY26’s 7.6% expansion, modest inflation expectations and a...
Emerging-Market Bond Sales Are Soaring Again as Investors Dive Back Into Risk
Emerging‑market bond issuance surged in April, with $46 billion raised—about 200% higher than the same month last year. The rally follows a March slowdown caused by the Israel‑Iran conflict and reflects renewed investor appetite for yield amid a tentative US‑Iran cease‑fire....
Ukraine Secures $45 Billion Western Aid Boost, Emphasizing Drone Production and Air Defense
Western allies pledged more than $45 billion at the Ramstein meeting, with the UK, Germany, Norway, Canada and others earmarking funds for air‑defence systems and joint drone production. The package marks the largest single commitment since Russia’s invasion and shifts aid...
FPIs Pour $580 M Into Indian Equities as Rupee Steadies
Foreign portfolio investors injected almost ₹4,800 cr ($580 M) into Indian equities this week, reversing a mid‑month dip as the rupee steadied and geopolitical tensions eased. The inflow contrasts with a net outflow of about ₹45,000 cr ($540 M) across April, highlighting a cautious...
Chinese EV Makers Overtake Tesla, Sparking U.S. Auto Stock Revaluation
Chinese electric‑vehicle giants BYD and Geely have eclipsed Tesla in global sales, while Canada slashed tariffs from 100% to 6.1% and Europe shifts to price‑minimum rules. The surge forces U.S. investors to weigh the impact on domestic automakers and related...
55 Chinese A‑share Firms Slash Holdings, State Fund Joins Sell‑off, Market Braced for Drop
Within a week, 55 mainland‑listed companies announced large share‑holding reductions, with 16 cutting more than 3% and the sovereign fund joining the exodus. The coordinated sell‑off spans semiconductor, consumer and pharma sectors and is expected to weigh on the market...