Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
Milestone Systems announced the launch of its Asia Experience Centre in Singapore, expanding its regional footprint and providing a live‑lab for AI‑enabled video solutions. The centre supports Singapore’s national AI agenda and offers governments, enterprises, and critical infrastructure operators a space to design, test, and validate hybrid‑cloud and analytics‑driven workflows. It underscores the rapid growth of Asia’s security market, projected to reach $59.5 billion by 2030, and emphasizes responsible AI, interoperability, and multi‑vendor collaboration. Milestone aims to accelerate adoption of intelligent video across sectors such as transport, hospitality, and smart cities.
The United States delivered a formal diplomatic warning to Kyiv after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export gateway for Kazakh crude that underpins American oil majors' interests. The attack disabled a single‑point mooring,...
Romania’s cabinet approved a sweeping public‑administration decree that will cut roughly 10% of civil‑service staff – about 12,800 jobs – and impose unified wage standards on the majority of local units. The same session cleared an economic relaunch package featuring...
Yicai: "Chinese yuan deposits saw strong year-on-year growth in January, but the pattern of slower household deposit growth alongside faster non-bank deposit growth persisted. Industry insiders said this does not mean that money is leaving the banking system, nor does...
Europe marked the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full‑scale invasion with a high‑profile solidarity event in Kyiv, where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Portugal’s Prime Minister António Costa stood beside President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The gathering showcased symbolic support...
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to present a 2026 budget bolstered by higher-than‑expected tax receipts, driven by a commodity price surge and improved collection efficiency. Despite the fiscal headroom, his GDP outlook remains bleak, projecting growth under 2%—far short...
🚨Have US stocks PEAKED? The US stocks versus emerging market equities ratio has been falling for the last 15 months, after peaking in November 2024. Over this period, emerging market stocks have returned +48% while the S&P 500 delivered just +15%👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-us-stock-market-has-peaked
Kenyan Senate leader Edwin Sifuna announced that his Linda Mwananchi Initiative, a breakaway faction from the ODM, is open to joining the United Opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election. The prospective alliance aims to consolidate anti‑Ruto forces and present...
U.S. tech giants such as Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are increasingly becoming sole owners of undersea data cables, giving them unprecedented control over global internet traffic. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs and hinted at...
India’s MSMEs employ 330 million workers, accounting for 62 % of non‑agricultural jobs and about 30 % of GDP, yet their workers generate only 14 % of the output of large‑firm employees. The productivity gap stems from widespread informality, low formal skill training, and...
Los Angeles‑based Scopely agreed to acquire a majority stake in Istanbul‑born mobile‑game studio Loom Games, valuing the company at over $1 billion through a performance‑based structure. Loom, founded in August 2025, launched its first title “Pixel Flow” in September, attracting more than 10 million...
Bangladesh’s February 12 election gave the Bangladesh Nationalist Party a decisive parliamentary super‑majority, easing short‑term political uncertainty. The win clears the path for a long‑awaited constitutional referendum that could reshape the legislature, judiciary and prime‑ministerial term limits. Fitch Ratings notes that...
Panama's government announced the seizure of two strategic ports along the Panama Canal, citing national security and revenue concerns. The move follows a series of regulatory actions aimed at tightening state control over critical infrastructure. Officials indicated that the ports...
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
Bloomberg: "Shanghai eased homebuying rules, in the latest attempt by authorities to contain the nation’s prolonged property slump." https://t.co/7gAmMs7Onw
Uzbekistan announced a partnership with Harvard, Stanford and the London School of Economics to launch the "Next Generation Entrepreneurs" program, overseen by the Youth Affairs Agency. The initiative targets at least 40,000 students with business‑management training, while the top 1,000...
1/3 Xinhua: "According to China's value-added tax invoice data, the 2026 Spring Festival holiday saw the average daily sales revenues of consumer-related industries increase by 13.7 percent from last year's Spring Festival holiday." https://t.co/kWT8ZTr29T
Well, the WSJ oped page lost me with statement that the balance of payments is a non issue ... 1/2
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) approved the procurement plan for Uzbekistan’s Resilient Electricity Transmission Project on February 25, 2026, committing 100% financing for a $1.324 million consulting package. Two contracts were cleared: a $24,000 individual consultancy and a $1.3 million project‑preparation...
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party has pushed amendments that criminalize "systematic" non‑recognition of the government, imposing up to three years in prison. The law targets dissent over the contested October 2024 parliamentary elections, which international observers deemed neither free nor fair....
The article argues that middle powers such as the UK and Canada should abandon the race to build ever‑larger AI models and instead concentrate on a "deployment race"—embedding near‑state‑of‑the‑art AI into industry and defence. It proposes a UK‑Canada Partnership on...
China’s Ministry of Commerce escalated economic pressure on Japan by adding 20 Japanese firms to its export control list and another 20 to a watch list, targeting dual‑use items. Foreign Minister Wang Yi intensified rhetoric, accusing Japan of harboring ambitions...
President Donald Trump announced a 10 percent tariff on most imports, revising his earlier 15 percent target. The move follows a Supreme Court decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president authority to impose such duties. Experts...
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% during Wednesday’s meeting, buoyed by a stronger‑than‑expected 2.5% year‑on‑year GDP growth in Q4 2025 and a clearer political environment after the election. Economists...
The Bank of Thailand raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.9%, up from 1.5%, after a stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter performance. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn stressed that tighter coordination between fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is essential to move the economy toward...
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The US Supreme Court rebuked President Trump’s broad tariff authority, prompting a 10% across‑the‑board duty that replaces the 30% reciprocal tariff South Africa faced. The reduction levels the playing field for SA exporters, while gold surged to a three‑week high...
The mandarins at the PBOC are in a difficult spot -- a faster pace of CNY appreciation against the dollar has convinced Chinese exporters to bring funds back home, and driven the need to buy $100b a month (give or...
The article argues that Ukrainian resilience is not a voluntary virtue but a forced response to Vladimir Putin’s relentless invasion, which seeks to erase Ukraine’s national identity. While global media celebrates the population’s courage, the resilience narrative can mask the urgent...
As the conflict enters its fifth year, I’ve mapped the most credible pathways to how it ends: ceasefire, collapse, escalation... Five scenarios. Assigned probabilities. Clear drivers and risk implications. My latest Substack is below, or the link is in my bio. https://open.substack.com/pub/geopoliticalguy/p/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
India’s Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) has launched an exercise to map import reliance by cataloguing goods that lack domestic manufacturing across all ministries. The initiative will compile five‑year public procurement data, targeting the $650 billion import...
The Indian government has approved a limited export of 25 lakh metric tonnes of wheat and an additional five lakh tonnes of wheat products, despite the overall export ban remaining in force. The decision, taken in January and notified by...
Spotify disclosed that Nigerian users logged over 1.4 billion listening hours in 2025, driving playlist creations past 25 million. The platform reports a 163% year‑over‑year increase in average listening since 2021 and a staggering 5,022% surge in Afrobeats consumption. Local artist presence...
The article examines how Treasury bond returns move together with U.S. stock returns, showing that comovement has shifted from positive in the 1980s to negative in the 2000s and back to positive after 2022. Using rolling 90‑day regressions on daily...
Japan’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports reached a record ¥1.7 trillion in 2025, up 12.8% year‑on‑year, marking the 13th consecutive record. Growth was driven by strong demand for scallops, green tea and sake, with the United States and China remaining the...
At Mining Indaba 2026 in Cape Town, Lualaba province positioned itself as the world’s leading cobalt producer, emphasizing its pivotal role in the energy transition. Governor Fifi Masuka Saini highlighted the region’s stable, investment‑friendly governance and alignment with international mining...
Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call...
Whoah Nellie. Looks like Ireland's list of its top 3 corporate tax papers will need to be updated for 2025 ... Eli Lilly reported paying $6.6b to Ireland in 2025 (2x its US federal income tax payments) https://t.co/MEw7WMzPft
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the digital euro as a core part of her legacy, noting its progress from research to a live policy effort. The project is now in a "preparation phase" with technical design and pilot...
Paging President Macron as well -- Old fashioned imbalances are back, as is intervention (now done through the back door) ... which sets the ground work for France to try to actually achieve something at its G-7
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 635.0%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 79.0%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 56.3%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 49.0%/yr https://t.co/22hHl94rWL
The UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) plans to strip Turkey of its developing‑economy exemption for hot‑dip galvanised (HDG) steel, moving Turkish shipments into the capped “other countries” quota. The move follows Tata Steel’s complaint that Turkish imports surged to 58,030 t...
Great story in the New York Times highlighting the difficulties that the US government has faced in getting the world's most profitable companies to take supply chain security seriously, and reduce their exposure to a crisis in the Taiwan straights 1/...
Good points from Thorsten Brenner -- The "car bosses" are tempted to use their Chinese factories to supply the European market. Deindustrializing Europe isn't their concern. European policy makers need a policy framework that makes this impossible...
Cartel violence erupted in Mexico after the killing of leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, halting flights and disrupting tourism in Puerto Vallarta. Tourism, which contributes about 10% of Mexico’s GDP, faces short‑term setbacks and longer‑term perception risks. AM Best issued a negative...
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
The IMF’s South Africa mission chief expects Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to keep the primary budget surplus at 1.5% of GDP and to embed the necessary fiscal reforms in the 2026 budget. The Fund highlighted controlling the public‑sector wage bill,...
The article argues that the United States must move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action against Hong Kong’s increasingly repressive regime. It highlights the political role of Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) in the U.S., which enjoy diplomatic privileges despite...
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi publicly rejected a NATO‑style nuclear‑sharing arrangement with the United States, reaffirming Japan's Three Non‑Nuclear Principles during a House of Representatives debate. Her statement comes amid a comprehensive review of Japan's National Security Strategy, Defense Strategy,...
