Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
‘Hormuz Moment’ Could Herald Decline of US Dominance: Citic Securities Analysts
Citic Securities analysts argue that the ongoing Iranian blockades in the Strait of Hormuz signal a "Hormuz moment" that could erode U.S. strategic dominance, drawing a parallel to the United Kingdom’s 1950s "Suez moment." They note that the United States is effectively "wedged" in the narrow waterway, facing heightened risk to its oil supply chain. The report forecasts that prolonged disruptions may force the U.S. to seek alternative routes and could accelerate a shift toward Chinese‑led energy corridors. The analysts warn that the geopolitical balance could be reshaped if the U.S. cannot secure reliable passage.
Africa’s Geopolitical Hand Is Stronger than Ever
Africa stands at a crossroads as the global order shifts from U.S. hegemony to a multipolar system. Its abundant natural resources, youthful population, and expanding markets give the continent unprecedented geopolitical clout. However, realizing this leverage depends on savvy leadership,...
How India Became the World's Most Prolific IPO Market
India dominated the global IPO scene in 2025, delivering 367 new listings that represented 28.4% of worldwide deal count, outpacing the US, China and Hong Kong. Decades of reforms beginning in 1991 transformed the market, first by attracting foreign institutional...
Asian Hedge Funds Suffer 10% March Loss as Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates
Trivest Advisors' TAL China Focus Fund posted a 10.2% loss in March, its steepest decline ever, as the Iran‑Israel war rattled Asian markets. The fund, managing $5.4 billion, joins a wave of regional hedge funds that saw double‑digit drops, underscoring heightened...
First Global Fossil‑Fuel Exit Summit Set for Colombia, Over 50 Nations to Attend
Over 50 nations are slated to meet in Santa Marta, Colombia, on April 28‑29 for the inaugural global conference on fossil‑fuel exit, co‑hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands. The gathering brings together producers and consumers representing roughly one‑fifth of global...
Oil Prices Surge to $90 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Hit Global Markets
Oil jumped to $90 a barrel and U.S. gasoline averaged just above $4 per gallon after Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the Strait of Hormuz. The move has reignited fears of supply disruptions, pushing energy commodities to new highs...
Latin America’s Oil Boom Fuels Record Production and Massive Investment Plans
Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras posted a 16.4% jump to 5.304 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and announced a $109 billion five‑year investment plan, while Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale field is on track to hit 1 million barrels per day, prompting...
As the Hormuz Crisis Exposes ‘Fragile’ Global Supply Chains, How Will China Respond?
China’s top economic planner, Zheng Shanjie of the NDRC, warned that the US‑Israeli strikes on Iran and the resulting disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz expose the fragility of global supply chains. He said China had already...
A US Tech Agenda Focused on Latin America to Outcompete the People’s Republic of China
The Atlantic Council workshop in Bogotá highlighted Colombia’s rapid tech growth and its increasing reliance on Chinese investment. In 2024 Colombia attracted $513 million in venture capital and saw Chinese firms secure over $3.1 billion in infrastructure contracts, while U.S. tech investment...
Introducing Dynamic Competition in the Middle East
The article outlines Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 as a sweeping reform agenda that goes beyond flagship giga‑projects to overhaul the kingdom’s competition policy and digital infrastructure. By strengthening property rights, digitizing economic registries and revamping the 2019 Competition Law, Saudi...
China's Structural Advantage, Not Tactics, Drives US‑China Trade
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧'𝐭 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. In my latest piece for @FortuneMagazine , I argue that many CEOs and boards are asking the wrong question about the U.S.-China relationship. They are waiting for a "breakthrough" at...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
Trump’s $1 Billion TotalEnergies Deal Is ‘Worthless’
The Trump administration offered to pay TotalEnergies roughly $1 billion to cancel its offshore wind leases, positioning the funds as a boost for U.S. oil and gas development. Heatmap analysis shows the deal is effectively worthless because TotalEnergies was already slated...
Asia Daily: April 20, 2026
China’s defense ministry justified its Taiwan drills as "reasonable" while President Lai Ching‑te pushed a stalled $40 bn special defense budget. New Zealand and China sparred over a P‑8A patrol near the Yellow Sea, and Japan’s first post‑2014 warship export materialised...
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
India Growth Resilient, Markets Near Correction: HDFC Securities
HDFC Securities projects India’s real GDP to grow about 6.5% in FY 26‑27, with nominal GDP expanding 10‑11%. Inflation is expected to ease to roughly 4.5% and the fiscal deficit to hover near 4.3%, while capital spending could account for 32%...
World’s Best Investment Banks 2026: Middle East
In 2025 the Middle East’s investment‑banking scene was driven by post‑pandemic growth, energy diversification and sweeping capital‑market reforms. KFH Capital topped the list, executing over $60 billion in transactions and leading 16 debt issuances, including a landmark $3 billion sukuk for Saudi...
Top Links 1078 The Stealth Manufacturing Boom in the US. How Will the World Pay for the US AI Boom?...
The piece spotlights a covert surge in U.S. manufacturing, largely driven by defense‑related and artificial‑intelligence initiatives that are hidden from headline statistics. Federal incentives and private‑sector investment are expanding capacity in semiconductor fabs, advanced materials plants, and robotics assembly lines...
India-South Korea Summit Puts Shipbuilding, Tech at the Forefront
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung arrived in New Delhi for a three‑day summit, bringing a large industry delegation focused on shipbuilding, semiconductors, AI and defence. Bilateral merchandise trade hit $25.1 bn in 2024 and both governments aim to double it to...
US Bill Targets Georgian Port as NATO Ramps Up Defence Supply Chains
Congressmen Joe Wilson and Steve Cohen have introduced H.R. 7668 to assess and counter Chinese and Russian penetration of Georgia’s strategic Anaklia Deep Sea Port, a choke point for rare‑earth supply chains. At the same time, Latvia’s foreign minister warned that...
Credit Crunch: Saturna’s Drum on Sukuk Growth, Geopolitical Risk
In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FIC Focus, host Noel Hebert talks with Patrick Drum, fixed‑income lead at Saturna Capital, about the rapidly expanding sukuk market – the Islamic‑compliant bond universe now exceeding $1 trillion in issuance. Drum outlines the market’s...
PBOC Sets Yuan Midpoint at Weakest Since April 13, Signaling Continued Depreciation
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a daily midpoint for the yuan that is the weakest since April 13, reinforcing a trend of depreciation. The move is expected to ripple through emerging‑market currencies and affect global trade pricing.
India and China Wall Off Border Rows to Focus on Trade and Security
India and China held their first bilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) consultations in New Delhi, signaling a cautious reset in relations. The talks deliberately compartmentalised border disputes, enabling progress on trade, security and multilateral diplomacy. While roughly 60,000 troops remain...
Iran Keeps Strait of Hormuz Shut, Blames U.S. Blockade Amid Rising Oil Prices
Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, accusing Washington of a naval blockade that is choking oil shipments. The disruption is already inflating fuel prices in Kenya and rattling European equity markets, while diplomatic talks in Islamabad stall.
Kenyan Fuel Prices Spike as Hormuz Disruption Squeezes Stocks, Gold Slides on US‑Iran Tensions
Kenya’s Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi warned that limited fuel stocks – 138,623 mt of petrol for just 16 days – are under pressure after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz drove global pump prices higher. At the same time, spot...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID-Level Severity
EM "outflows have been almost as bad as during COVID, i.e. they’ve been massive." -Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro
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Iran MP Plans for Strategic Management of Strait of Hormuz Using the Rial
Iran's parliamentary infrastructure commission chair announced a proposal to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz by banning Israeli‑linked and "hostile" vessels and requiring all permitted ships to pay guidance and security fees in Iranian rials. The plan also allows...
Chinese Overseas Students Drop to Lowest in decade...China’s Wealth Management Products Shrink by $200BN...China Begins Construction of $1BN Hydropower Station...
Chinese outbound student numbers fell to 570,600 in 2025, a 20% drop from the 2019 peak and the lowest level in a decade, signaling tighter immigration rules and rising tuition costs abroad. Meanwhile, China’s bank wealth‑management products contracted by 1.38 trillion RMB...
What Really Drives China’s Massive Trade Surplus
China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, the largest in its post‑reform era. The surplus is less a product of industrial policy than a structural savings‑investment gap amplified by an aging population and tight credit for private firms....
China Steps In: The End of the Iran Nuclear Deadlock
China has signaled willingness to take custody of or dilute Iran’s roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched up to 60%, a move that could break the stalemate between Washington’s demand for removal and Tehran’s refusal to hand the material to the...
State Street Investment Management Lists the First Actively Managed Saudi Stock ETF on the LSE
State Street Investment Management listed the State Street Saudi Arabia Enhanced Active Equity UCITS ETF (Acc) on the London Stock Exchange on April 20, 2026, giving European investors active exposure to Saudi equities. The Ireland‑domiciled fund uses a proprietary quantitative...
‘No More Mr Nice Guy’: Oil Prices Spike as Trump Renews Iran Power Plant Threats
Oil prices surged over six percent on Monday, pushing Brent crude above $96 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East intensified. President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants if Tehran rejects a U.S. deal, while Iran’s closure...
China Voices Concern over US Seizure of Iranian Cargo Ship, Urges Further Talks
China’s foreign ministry voiced concern on Monday over the United States’ forced interception and seizure of the Iranian‑flagged cargo vessel Touska in the north Arabian Sea. The U.S. Navy fired on the ship after it attempted to breach a blockade...
Asia Hedge Funds Hit with Loses Prior to Ceasefire
Asian hedge funds recorded broad losses in March as the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict sparked sharp market swings. Macro‑focused funds such as Trivest Advisors’ China strategy fell over 10%, the steepest monthly drop on record, while equity‑oriented funds slipped mid‑single‑digit percentages. Despite...
China’s Trade with Iran, Gulf States Plunges as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Hits Energy Flows
China’s customs data show a dramatic contraction in trade with Iran and Gulf states in March, as the Strait of Hormuz crisis tightened shipping routes. Imports from Iran fell 48% year‑on‑year while exports to Tehran plunged 90%. Across eight Persian...
Invest in China as the Country Comes Back Into Fashion
China has re‑emerged as a fashionable investment theme in 2026, buoyed by a youthful global perception shift and strong export momentum. Yet the country’s equity market has lagged its 344% GDP growth since 2008, with the CSI 300 barely up...
Q1 Growth Lays Strong Foundation, but High Energy Prices a Threat: HSBC
Vietnam posted 7.8% GDP growth in Q1 2026, the fastest expansion in 16 years, driven by a 23% trade surge to $249.5 billion and record tourism. The electronics sector and private consumption boosted growth, while services rose 8.18% on strong Lunar...
The Base Is Thinning 🔻
African startups raised $3.3 billion in the 12 months to March 2026, with $1.8 billion in equity and $1.4 billion in debt. However, the share of small equity rounds is collapsing – deals between $100k‑$250k fell from 40% in 2021 to just 21% in...
XTransfer Export PMI: Emerging Markets Drive Growth, High-End Upgrading Opportunities Stand Out
XTransfer reported that emerging markets generated 73 % of its inbound cross‑border payment collections in Q1, rising 45 % year‑on‑year and outpacing China’s export growth to those regions. Collections from Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia surged 115 %, 97 % and 18 % respectively....
A Stock Trader’s Guide to a Fractured Economic World
Investors are redirecting capital toward defense, energy and technology stocks as the Middle East conflict accelerates a broader shift toward self‑reliance and secure supply chains. Europe’s €500 billion ($590 billion) stimulus program has lifted aerospace, defense and renewable‑energy indices, while the MSCI World’s...
Despite Donroe Doctrine, Latin America and China to Remain BFFs but with a Twist
The U.S. National Security Strategy now frames Washington as the preferred partner in the Americas, aiming to curb China’s growing influence. Trade between China and the six major Latin American economies has surged over 3,200 % since 2001, far outpacing the...
China’s Lending Benchmark Stability Prompts Asian Markets Growth
China’s core lending benchmark, the 7‑day repo rate, has held steady at 2.5% for the third consecutive month, reinforcing liquidity in the country’s banking system. The stability has encouraged investors to increase exposure to Asian equities, driving a 1.8% rally...
Russia Needs $100 Urals Oil to Close Deficit
“Russia’s ailing economy has failed to recover even as rising oil prices during the war in the Middle East have boosted the Kremlin’s depleted coffers, according to Sweden’s military intelligence chief. Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security...
Unending Iran War Could Stall Global Growth to Zero
My take on what would happen to world economic growth if the Iran war continues unabated @MarioNawfal: "My guess is that world growth would sink from the IMF projected 3.1%/yr to pretty close to zero, maybe even negative." FOREVER WARS = FROM...
China Weaponizes Rare‑earth Magnets Amid US‑Japan Tensions
China. Reduces rare earth magnet exports to US and Japan. Why? A topic for Xi-Trump meeting. Counter oil supply drop from Iran? What else may China do?
Egypt, India Keep Floating Currencies to Shield Against Oil Shock
Egypt and India stand alone among the major EMs in allowing their currencies to adjust freely to the spike in oil prices. This will stand them in good stead. A freely-floating exchange rate helps protect you from bad shocks like...
Latin America Markets Surge on Expected Iran Peace, High Oil
At last week's IMF/WB meetings, markets were as bullish as I can remember on Latin America. They're trading an end to the war with Iran and oil prices staying elevated for a while, all of which benefits the region's oil...
Geopolitical Tension Holds Market; One Headline Could Flip It
Monday setup: - Xi calls MBS overnight to open Hormuz (China is cracking) - Iran "maybe" talks round 2 in Islamabad - IRGC won't give up fissile material (deal killer) - SPX -50bp, NQ -40bp into the open One headline flips this market either way....
UAE Can Preserve Peg via Swap Line, Not Reserve Cuts
A lot of this seems preemptive, given UAE’s large existing FX reserves. Using a swap line for a bit to help maintain the currency peg would be seen as less disruptive than trimming reserves.
UAE Threatens Shift From Petrodollar to Yuan
💥JUST IN The UAE has told the U.S. that if it runs short of U.S. dollars, it will be forced to use Chinese yuan or other currencies for oil sales and transactions. The petrodollar is at risk. https://t.co/ENEUL9x7LY