Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
India and Israel will reconvene for the next round of free‑trade agreement negotiations in May 2026, following a constructive first round held during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit. The initial talks covered goods, services, digital trade, rules of origin, intellectual‑property rights and customs procedures. Bilateral merchandise trade reached $3.62 billion in FY 25, with both sides highlighting untapped potential in machinery, chemicals, textiles, agriculture, medical devices and advanced technologies. The renewed dialogue revives talks that stalled after eight rounds ended in 2021.
India’s ministerial panel will examine field trials of a genetically modified rapeseed (mustard) variety, a step that could reshape the country’s cautious stance on GM food crops. The review comes as the Supreme Court prepares to revisit a pending case...
A day that was a long time coming -- TSMC's dominance of chip manufacturing led Taiwan to post a $70b quarterly current account surplus in q4. That is $280b annualized, or a surplus of ~ 33% of GDP Never...
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that both China and Iran have expressed interest in replicating the Belarus‑Russia Union State's region‑to‑region cooperation framework. The declaration came during the Supreme State Council in Moscow, co‑chaired by Vladimir Putin, as the Union State...
Panama’s economy expanded 4% in 2025, driven mainly by services, while manufacturing lagged at 0.46%. Business group SIP says reopening First Quantum’s Cobre Panama copper mine could lift GDP growth to 6% by 2027, versus a 3.7% slowdown if the mine...
President Bola Tinubu signed an amendment to Nigeria's Electoral Act that mandates electronic transmission of results but retains a manual fallback if technical issues arise. The law also omits a real‑time publishing requirement, prompting opposition parties and civil society to...
The Federal District government has introduced a bill to inject up to BRL 6 billion into BRB Banco de Brasília following the Master Bank fraud, allowing borrowing from the Credit Guarantee Fund or other lenders. The proposal also reduces the number of...
The loan‑note briefing highlights a surge in so‑called “zombie” funds that continue to chase low‑yield opportunities despite deteriorating market conditions. At the same time, emerging‑market private credit achieved a record deployment year, reflecting strong investor demand for higher returns. Arctos’s...
Iranian and American negotiators held the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26, briefly pausing before resuming later that day. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Busaidi, who is mediating the talks, described the atmosphere as "creative and positive." The International...
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced a sweeping fiscal overhaul, lowering the oil‑price budget rule threshold by $1 each year for five years to shift revenue reliance from oil and gas to domestic consumption. The move follows a sharp drop...
More than 1,100 English councillors have signed the Palestine Solidarity Campaign’s “Councillor Pledge for Palestine,” urging councils to adopt BDS‑aligned policies ahead of the May 2026 local elections. The signatories are led by the Green Party (387), Labour (375) and...
Former ICBC chairman Chen Siqing urged China to embed its Cross‑border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) into bilateral trade frameworks, especially with Belt‑Road and RCEP partners, as geopolitical tensions heighten reliance on non‑US payment networks. He highlighted CIPS’s rapid growth, processing...
Record Put Trading on ETFs Seen as AI Victims From BBG: “Almost $50 billion in notional put trading so far this month, significantly outpacing other episodes over the past two decades.” “Themes such as senior loans, consumer exposure, financials and health care. The...
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Ghana announced an artisanal and small‑scale mining (ASM) gold formalisation programme that will channel roughly 127 metric tons of gold per year into official trade. The Ghana Gold Board, via the newly created GoldBod, will purchase a minimum of 2.45 tons weekly,...
My new book China's 90% Model launches March 17 To mark the launch of my book, I am hosting an exclusive session for my LinkedIn community. Are You Aware? Do You Know? In one hour I will take you through: 🔹What China's...
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
The U.S. State Department lodged a formal protest with Ukraine after a drone strike hit Russia’s Black Sea oil terminal in Novorossiysk, damaging American economic interests. Ukrainian Ambassador Olha Stefanishyna confirmed the warning, urging Kyiv to refrain from targeting U.S....
London Gateway, DP World’s flagship UK terminal, is on track to become the nation’s leading container port after handling 3 million TEU in 2025 and surpassing Felixstowe in Q3 2025. The port’s rapid growth stems from a £1.5 bn initial outlay followed...
The U.S. Senate trimmed the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) renewal to a single‑year extension, sparking optimism among exporters but deepening long‑term uncertainty. Simultaneously, Washington imposed tariffs of 10‑30% on key African products, and non‑tariff measures continue to raise...
India is expected to experience one of its warmest Marches on record, with temperatures projected up to 7 °C above normal in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Madhya Pradesh. These states produce more than 80 % of the nation’s...
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Africa’s trade potential hinges on overhauling its digital infrastructure, not just fixing ports or roads. Current IoT systems rely on permanent roaming SIMs and single‑core networks that crumble at borders, inflating costs and risk. Surveys show operators are shifting to...
The United Kingdom announced it will back a full ban on maritime services – including insurance and shipping – for Russian crude and refined oil, moving beyond the existing $44.10‑per‑barrel price‑cap rule. Trade Minister Chris Bryant said the UK will...
At the ET Retail GIRS 2026 conference, Celio COO Francois Gomez outlined a new growth plan for India, emphasizing larger‑format stores and a shift away from discount‑driven sales. The brand will prioritize honest pricing and its core apparel DNA—suits, polos, shirts and...
Private credit allocations to emerging markets hit record levels in 2025‑2026, shifting capital from traditional hubs to cities like Mumbai, São Paulo, Mexico City, and Jakarta. The surge is driven by bank retrenchment, robust demographic growth, and attractive relative yields compared...
Four years after Russia launched its full‑scale invasion, a draft U.S. peace plan proposes recognizing Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian‑controlled and allowing Russia to keep occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has rejected any...
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
Yesterday, THOUSANDS of farmers took to the streets of Madrid, Spain. They protested the EU-Mercosur Trade Pact. https://t.co/XqvZrcC16q
Southeast Asian super‑app Grab reported its first full‑year profit in 2025, posting a $200 million net gain after narrowing losses from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $158 million in 2024. Revenue climbed roughly 20% to $3.4 billion as transaction volume rose 21% to $22 billion...
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
Nasdaq is contorting its own index rules to court the IPOs of SpaceX et al, and @thekrazykobra brings the 🔥 https://t.co/ExpsatLZ6h https://t.co/VjWaHmMJYd
The Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO) will issue No Objection Certificates (NOC) for drug‑sample testing immediately upon receipt of applications, eliminating the prior detailed specification review. Companies can begin laboratory testing at designated Indian Pharmacopoeia Commission and other central...
No other EM has transformed itself in the past decade quite like Brazil, which has shifted its trade balance into a structural surplus. This shift has gotten no recognition in markets whatsoever. The Real remains deeply discounted compared to pre-COVID... https://t.co/1DJ37H8dXi...
The Dollar yesterday made a new post-election low against EM (black line). Except for the tariff turmoil in Apr. '25, USD has been falling in a straight line against EM currencies. This is the best leading indicator for Dollar direction....
South Sudan is redirecting most of its import‑export cargo from Kenya’s congested Mombasa port to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam and Tanga terminals after a bilateral agreement. The shift follows persistent delays, a $5,000 security levy per container, and higher handling...
Turkey's trade deficit for January - out today - shows further deterioration. Chart below shows the trade deficit every January from 2000 - 2026. The 2026 number is the worst deficit except for 3 prior years (2018, 2022, 2023). This...
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brazil's Real went from $/BRL 6.00 to 4.50 in a few months as rising commodity prices lifted the terms of trade. Now the Real is gaining along with most other EMs as Dollar...
Kenya and Uganda are overhauling Sacco regulations after a series of collapses and fraud that have eroded member confidence. In Kenya, the Kuscco scandal exposed a $103 million loss, prompting a committee to recommend raising the minimum membership to 100 and...
Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/uIZSP3p5af #nigeria #usmilitary #geopolitics https://t.co/j1BH1u6PXG
People keep telling me I'm wrong about the US fiscal boost this year, but the IMF just published this.. thats bigger than our estimates btw https://t.co/HKAuw6DenI
Central Asian states recognize an urgent water shortage as they pursue water‑intensive projects like nuclear plants, data centers and expanded mining. Upstream nations Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan control most supplies, while downstream Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan depend on irrigation, creating a...
Chinese stocks may gain another 20% as rising inflation expectations translate into better earnings, according to UBS Securities Asia https://t.co/X14DnpuQpY
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has intensified a clash with senior Armenian Apostolic Church leaders, accusing them of serving Russian intelligence and undermining sovereignty. The dispute highlights Moscow’s use of religious networks as soft‑power tools across the post‑Soviet space, especially...
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy signals a new soft‑power push, funding MAGA‑aligned think tanks in the UK and Europe while tech oligarchs pour record sums into political campaigns. By the end of 2025, US‑backed donors contributed $429 million to...
Recent randomized surveys of US policymakers and scientists reveal a pronounced “China penalty” in grant evaluations. When the only variable changed is the collaborator’s nationality, support for US‑China proposals drops sharply compared with identical US‑Germany proposals, with unconditional approval falling...
Thai AirAsia is targeting 6‑9% year‑on‑year revenue growth in 2026, driven by an expected 23.5 million passengers and an 85% load factor. The carrier will add five Airbus A320s to launch new China‑Chiang Mai services and expand fifth‑freedom routes. It is also...
Steve Madden announced it will not issue profit guidance for 2026 after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated President Trump’s emergency‑powers tariffs. The ruling introduced significant uncertainty around trade costs, prompting CEO Edward Rosenfeld to postpone the company’s full financial forecast....
