Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Ringgit Set to Retest 3.88/USD as Foreign Inflows Surge
Economists and Bank Muamalat chief economist project Malaysia's ringgit will retest the 3.88 per US dollar level, driven by a 2.8% year‑to‑date appreciation and net foreign inflows of roughly $420 million this year. The outlook hinges on solid domestic growth, stable policy rates and a modest tailwind from U.S. monetary easing.
RBI Governor Warns Global Supply Shocks Could Trigger Second‑Round Inflation in India
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that ongoing West Asia conflict could turn first‑round price shocks into entrenched second‑round inflation, stressing the need for data‑driven monetary policy and careful forex interventions. The central bank, holding $710 billion in reserves,...
Treasury Yields Rise as Iran Ceasefire Talks Lift Oil Prices
U.S. Treasury prices fell and yields climbed after renewed ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran pushed crude oil higher. The move marked a clear geopolitical catalyst for the bond market, separate from the ongoing Federal Reserve nominee hearing.
AI Funding Hits $242 B in Q1 2026, OpenAI Secures $122 B
AI companies raised $242 billion in the first quarter of 2026, and OpenAI alone captured $122 billion, roughly half the total. The surge reinforces NVIDIA’s dominance in AI hardware while highlighting a widening funding gap between the United States and China.
Proparco Commits $17.25m to Alterra Africa Accelerator Fund
Proparco, the French development finance institution, has pledged $17.25 million to the Alterra Africa Accelerator Fund (AAA Fund), a pan‑African growth‑equity vehicle managed by Alterra Capital Partners. The fund targets profitable, growth‑stage companies in East and Southern Africa that serve basic...
Game Theory Explains Why the US's Goals in Iran Keep Changing
The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is being framed as a war of attrition, where endurance outweighs firepower. Iran’s cheap drones and abundant missile stockpiles let it absorb losses longer, while the United States must sustain costly naval deployments...
Côte D'Ivoire's Startup Surge Gathers Pace
Côte d'Ivoire is emerging as West Africa’s next startup hub, buoyed by 6‑7% annual GDP growth and a youthful, increasingly connected population. The ecosystem centers on fintech, agritech, e‑commerce, logistics and edtech, with fintech leading due to a large unbanked...
DRC’s Economic Rise Gains Momentum as Mining Boom and Currency Reforms Reshape Growth
The International Monetary Fund projects the Democratic Republic of Congo’s GDP to reach roughly $123 billion in 2026, positioning it as the fifth‑largest economy in Sub‑Saharan Africa. Growth is driven by a mining boom that now contributes about 25% of GDP...
Can Japan Finally Unlock Defense Technology Cooperation With India?
Japan is revamping its defense‑industrial policy to promote co‑development and export of high‑end technology, aiming to create a China‑free supply chain and boost economic growth. While Tokyo has recently succeeded in projects with the U.K., Italy, the U.S. and Australia,...
VinFast Adds 14 Distributors to Accelerate Philippine EV Scooter Launch
VinFast announced the addition of 14 new motorcycle distributors, bringing its Philippine dealer network to 19 partners as it prepares for a June 2026 launch of its electric scooter lineup. The move ties inventory to local logistics routes and underpins...
Mabwell’s T‑mab Subsidiary Clears First‑Time GMP Inspection in Jordan, Boosting Middle‑East Push
Mabwell announced that its subsidiary T‑mab successfully passed a Jordan Food and Drug Administration on‑site GMP inspection, earning a “Compliance” rating for its denosumab biosimilars. The milestone, the company’s first approval from a PIC/S member country, is expected to accelerate...
Iran-U.S. Talks Falter as Strait of Hormuz Violence Sparks Doubt
Uncertainty over a second round of Iran‑U.S. talks deepened on Monday after a U.S. naval incident in the Strait of Hormuz and mixed statements from Tehran. President Donald Trump said a delegation was en route to Islamabad, while Iran’s foreign...
Fitch Puts Philippines Credit Outlook Negative as Growth Slows to 4.6% Forecast
Fitch Ratings changed the Philippines' sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative, warning that falling public investment and higher energy costs threaten growth. The agency projects GDP expansion of 4.6% this year after a slowdown to 4.4% last year, keeping...
Asian Markets Split as US‑Iran Talks Stall, Oil Volatility Persists
Asian equity indices posted mixed results on April 20 as uncertainty over renewed US‑Iran negotiations kept oil prices volatile. The two‑week cease‑fire set by President Trump expires at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday, and traders are weighing the risk of renewed conflict...
Economist Justin Lin Urges West to Adopt ‘Eastern Wisdom’ as China Moves up Value Chain
Former World Bank chief economist Justin Lin challenged the Western claim that China’s auto‑export boom signals overcapacity, noting China ships about 7 million cars—20 percent of its output—versus Germany’s 4 million, which represent 80 percent of production. By comparing export‑to‑production ratios, he argues China...
Anna Breman: Global Shockwaves to Kiwi Shores - the Impact of the Iran Conflict on New Zealand
Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could spill over into New Zealand’s economy, raising near‑term headline inflation and dampening growth momentum. She noted that the OCR is held at 2.25 percent after recent cuts, with core inflation...
India’s GDP Growth to Slow to 6.4% in FY27 Amid Geopolitical Headwinds: UN Report
The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific projects India’s GDP growth will decelerate to 6.4% in FY27, down from 7.4% in FY26, before modestly rising to 6.6% in FY28. Inflation is expected to climb to 4.4%...
Fabio Panetta: Statement - Meeting of the Development Committee
Amid rising geopolitical tensions that are driving up food and energy prices, the World Bank Group faces heightened pressure to support vulnerable economies. In a statement to the Development Committee, Fabio Panetta urged the Bank to sharpen its focus on...
Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Opens to All Foreign Investors: Key Reforms and Action Points
On 1 February 2026 the Saudi Capital Market Authority amended its foreign‑investment rules, allowing any foreign investor to purchase Saudi equities directly on Tadawul. The reforms dissolve the Qualified Foreign Investor classification, strip away the swap‑agreement framework, and create a single, unified...
China Confronts Middle East Supply Shock, as State Council Mulls Energy Strategy
China’s State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, convened a high‑level session to address energy security amid the Strait of Hormuz shipping crisis. The meeting emphasized bolstering oil reserves, accelerating renewable deployment, and modernising coal‑fired plants to shield the economy,...
Reevaluating ASEAN’s Economic Outlook Amid the Iran Conflict
Templeton Research analyst Marcus Tantau warns that the ongoing Hormuz oil crisis and the Israel‑U.S. war’s spill‑over are dragging down ASEAN growth prospects. The World Bank has trimmed regional GDP forecasts by roughly one percentage point, and a prolonged Strait...
EM Lens: Identifying Alpha Opportunities in EM Fixed Income
Creditors are re‑entering emerging‑market (EM) fixed income as technical supply‑demand dynamics, positive rating momentum, and wide real‑yield differentials create a supportive backdrop. Ninety‑One portfolio manager Thys Louw and Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Damian Sassower discuss how these factors generate alpha in...
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Rejects Talks Amid US Threats
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed prospects for a second US‑Iran round of talks in Islamabad, insisting Tehran will not negotiate under threat. The two‑week cease‑fire, brokered on 7 April, expires on 22 April without a deal after a 21‑hour first...
Mexico's President Demands Answers After Four Officials Die in Chihuahua Accident
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday demanded a full explanation after a convoy carrying two U.S. Embassy instructors and two state investigators crashed in rugged Chihuahua, killing all four. She questioned whether constitutional protocols for joint security actions were followed,...
Ukraine Opens a New Front in Africa
Ukraine has escalated its maritime campaign against Russian shipping by deploying armed drones in the Mediterranean and extending operations toward Africa. In December 2025, Ukrainian drones struck the Russian oil tanker Qendil about 250 km off Libya, and three months...
Revolut Eyes 2028 IPO as It Rolls Out Beta to 450,000 Indians
Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky confirmed the neobank will wait until at least 2028 for an IPO, while the firm quietly opened a beta in India for 450,000 wait‑list users and targets 20 million Indian customers by 2030. The move follows a...
China’s Youth Unemployment Rises for Sixth month...ByteDance Profit Drops 70% as AI Spending increases...China’s C919 Plane Sees Delays Amid Supply...
China’s youth unemployment hit 16.9% in March, marking a sixth straight rise as 12.7 million graduates prepare to enter a tightening job market. ByteDance’s 2025 net profit plunged over 70% while the firm ramps up AI spending, earmarking roughly $23 billion for...
Druckenmiller Vows No China Investments Under Current Leader
Stanley Druckenmiller on investing in China: "We exited China in 2018. We haven’t made a single trade in security there other than their currency once in a while. I will never invest in China as long as the current leader...
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
China’s Tsingshan Plans to Build Another Aluminium Smelter in Indonesia
Chinese aluminium giant Tsingshan announced plans to build a new $3 billion smelter at Weda Bay Industrial Park in Indonesia, with a planned annual capacity of 800,000 tonnes split into two phases. The project joins existing Tsingshan‑linked facilities that will together...
Regional Trade Agenda Drives SADC Economic Growth
President @edmnangagwa welcomes the President of Botswana, @duma_boko at the Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport… Regional trade is his on the agenda … and it is the catalyst that will accelerate economic growth and prosperity in SADC & beyond…....
Firms Caught Between US Push and China Warning
US wants China out of upstream supply chains. China warns against it. When trust of both parties is thin, what do firms do.? Geopolitics and war? Taiwan. Where and what is next? Supply chain alignment vs fluidity. Welcome to the...
SC Leads Malaysia-China Capital Market Push
Malaysia’s Securities Commission led a high‑level delegation to China under its Capital Market Masterplan 2026‑2030, aiming to deepen bilateral investment ties and attract Chinese institutional investors. The team met regulators including the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration...
US Navy Seizes Sanctioned Iranian Oil Smuggler in Asian Waters
JUST IN: US military seized a sanctioned oil vessel smuggling Iranian crude in Asian waters.
China’s Capacity Vs. US Profit: Opposite Resource Gaps
Good post that once again reinforces this: China has abundant capacity but scarce profitability America has abundant profitability but scarce capacity. US is now obsessed and determined to get more capacity (may not work out) Is China equally obsessed and determined to...
Gulf-War: China Fills the Gulf Airlines Gap
The Israel‑Hamas war has shut key Gulf airspace, forcing airlines to reroute via Turkey, the Caucasus or the Arabian Peninsula. Detours add thousands of kilometres daily, driving up kerosene consumption and pushing fuel prices higher as the Strait of Hormuz...
China Set to Outpace US in Nuclear Capacity by 2030
Yicai: "China is expected to surpass the United States in operational nuclear power capacity before 2030, becoming the world’s largest, as the country accelerates reactor construction and investment." https://t.co/mmGLIDcA5g
India, South Korea Aim to Deepen Ties Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty. Here Is What's Holding Them Back.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met in New Delhi to reaffirm a goal of lifting bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, up from $26.89 billion in FY 2025. Trade between the two economies has risen...
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin Need a Rethink
ASEAN’s Rules of Origin (ROO) under ATIGA permit goods with predominantly foreign components to qualify for preferential treatment, undermining incentives for intra‑regional sourcing. Since the ROO shift to a Change‑in‑Tariff‑Classification (CTC) model, intra‑ASEAN trade has slipped to just 20‑30% of...
JPMorgan Expands $1.5 Trillion Economic Security Splurge Into Europe
JPMorgan Chase announced the European rollout of its $1.5 trillion, 10‑year Security and Resiliency Initiative (SRI), extending a program first launched in the United States last year. The initiative will channel financing and investment into critical sectors such as defense, energy...
What Does Pakistan Gain From Its Iran–US Diplomacy?
Pakistan has positioned itself as the chief mediator in the renewed Iran‑U.S. talks, hosting a second round in Islamabad after President Donald Trump’s invitation. The move reflects Islamabad’s urgent need to ease energy shortages, protect its 900‑km Iran border, and...
China Suddenly Grants New Beef Licences to Australia
China’s customs authority approved eight new Australian beef facilities – six cold‑storage centres and two abattoirs, including Thomas Foods International’s Murray Bridge plant – and upgraded licences for 13 existing exporters to ship chilled beef. The changes effectively add 15...
China and Iran: Alignment Under Sanctions
The China‑Iran relationship remains fragile, with elite‑level trust far weaker than Beijing’s ties to Russia. While the 2016 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signals political alignment, it operates more as a flexible hedge than a binding alliance, especially under U.S. pressure. Economic...
KRAFTON, Naver Launch Rs 6,000 Cr India-Focused Unicorn Growth Fund
South Korean tech giants Krafton and Naver, together with Mirae Asset Venture Investments, have launched a Rs 6,000 crore (≈ $720 million) India‑focused Unicorn Growth Fund. The fund, announced during the South Korean President’s official visit to India, will be managed by Mirae Asset...
The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World
The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has triggered a rapid, region‑wide scarcity shock across the Asia‑Pacific. Jet fuel prices have doubled and air traffic has fallen by roughly a third, while manufacturers face fuel‑driven cuts to output, from...
RBI's Liquidity Flood Drives Rupee Sharply Lower
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India is DIGGING A HOLE for the rupee. After years of tight management, now the RBI is FLOODING India with liquidity and the rupee is tanking. https://t.co/fy7Uowe3o2
The Cautious Optimism Holds as Markets Wait on US-Iran Talks Next
Iran has re‑imposed a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a hard‑line stance ahead of upcoming US‑Iran talks. President Trump is publicly confident a new deal will surpass the 2015 JCPOA, fueling market optimism despite mixed signals. Oil...
Kudlow - Monday, April 20
Fox Business aired a 41‑minute episode of "Kudlow" on Monday, April 20, where host Larry Kudlow examined three high‑profile issues: the Iranian regime’s aggressive posture, U.S. Special Counsel Jack Smith’s ongoing investigations, and the risk of a Hormuz Strait blockade....
Westpac Sees US Dollar Weakening as Markets Look Through Energy Shock and Tensions
Westpac argues that despite heightened Middle East tensions, the U.S. dollar is losing steam as markets price a gradual normalization of shipping flows and improving global trade. The bank forecasts the U.S. Dollar Index falling from the high‑90s to the...
South Korea Inc Meets Modi; Cos Including Samsung & LG Looking to Expand in Key Market
South Korean conglomerates Samsung, LG, Hyundai and SK Hynix met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi to discuss deeper investment and export plans for India. The delegation, part of President Lee Jae Myung’s first visit in eight years, highlighted expansion into AI,...