Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
Honduras’ new president Nasry Asfura has launched a suite of early reforms focused on fiscal austerity, expanding the Temporary Import Regime and re‑joining the World Bank’s ICSID to boost investor confidence. His administration secured a meeting with former President Donald Trump and signaled intent to negotiate reciprocal trade with the United States while restoring ties with Taiwan. In Congress, the National and Liberal parties together control a decisive majority, easing passage of his agenda. Structural challenges remain in energy, crime and broader trade reforms needed for lasting growth.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a two‑day visit to China, pledging a comprehensive strategic partnership while emphasizing the need for de‑risking amid trade imbalances. He highlighted persistent overcapacity and urged Beijing to play a constructive role in curbing Russia’s war in...
China Eastern Airlines will launch a Mumbai‑Shanghai service in May, operating four weekly flights with an Airbus A330. The carrier also plans to revive its Kunming‑Kolkata route for the summer season. Its Shanghai‑Delhi flight, upgraded to a daily schedule, is...
Japan’s regional banks, once pillars of local growth, now face shrinking deposits and borrowers as the nation records its 16th consecutive year of population decline. Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by the 2025 Aomori Bank‑Michinoku Bank merger that now controls about...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at a post‑Budget webinar, urged India Inc to dramatically increase investment in infrastructure and innovation. He highlighted a ten‑fold rise in public capital expenditure over the past 11 years, from roughly ₹2 lakh crore to over ₹12 lakh crore,...
Angola will headline the opening gala of ITB Berlin’s 60th edition on 2 March 2026, using the platform to unveil its new tourism brand “Visit Angola – The Rhythm of Life.” The event will host 700‑800 high‑level guests, showcasing Angolan culture,...
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
Chinese firm MizarVision posted high‑resolution satellite images showing U.S. F‑22 fighters at an Israeli base, sparking speculation that the pictures came from Chinese satellites. Analysts from the South China Sea Probing Initiative, led by Hu Bo, used satellite ephemeris and resolution...
China is maintaining a cautious diplomatic stance toward Iran despite a 25‑year strategic partnership and its role as Tehran’s primary oil buyer, accounting for over 80% of Iranian exports in 2025. Beijing publicly urges restraint and dialogue while opposing Iran’s...
In this episode of Polar Geopolitics, host Eric Pagli discusses China's growing interest in the Arctic, focusing on Greenland's critical raw material potential, with insights from China specialist Gerhard Hegelund and Greenland mining expert Nick Bake‑Heilman. The conversation explores China's...
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑January 2026 hit ₹9.8 lakh crore, about 63 % of the government’s full‑year estimate. Net tax receipts climbed to ₹20.94 lakh crore, while non‑tax revenue rose to ₹5.57 lakh crore. Total government outlays increased to ₹36.9 lakh crore, with capital expenditure reaching ₹8.4 lakh crore. The widening...
Vietnam aims double‑digit economic growth, but banks face loan‑to‑deposit caps and high debt ratios, limiting credit expansion. Capital markets are positioned to provide long‑term funding, improve transparency, and diversify financing sources. By the end of 2025 the stock market topped...
UBS Asset Management has listed two India‑focused UCITS ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. The MSCI India SF ETF uses synthetic replication to track the MSCI India Total Return Index with a 0.15% total expense ratio. The MSCI India Universal...
President Trump publicly rejected Nouri al‑Maliki’s nomination as Iraq’s prime minister, a move that back‑fired by rallying Shiite factions around the banner of national sovereignty. The episode exposes Iraq’s elite‑driven, communal power‑sharing system, where prime‑minister selection occurs outside parliament and...
The article argues that the United States’ Indo‑Pacific strategy is incomplete because it largely ignores the western Indian Ocean and Africa, where China has established a growing military footprint, notably its base in Djibouti and expanding ties in Mauritius and...
The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) reorients U.S. competition with China from a primarily military focus to an economic‑centric paradigm, emphasizing political warfare, gray‑zone activities, and supply‑chain resilience. It calls for leveraging alliances, reindustrialization, and civilian tools such as the...
The United States announced plans to deploy additional advanced missiles in the northern Philippines, positioning them as a deterrent against Chinese aggression near Taiwan and the South China Sea. Washington argues that mobile, land‑based systems complicate any Chinese offensive and...
The Economist’s language analysis shows State of the Union speeches have increasingly dwelled on past achievements, a trend echoed by President Trump’s nostalgic rhetoric. Investors are left questioning the outlook for a country that spends more time reminiscing than forecasting....
Global funds are pouring back into Indian equities, buying about $2.1 billion of shares in February – the strongest monthly inflow in eight months. The rebound follows a record outflow in 2025 and is driven by a newly signed US‑India trade...
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Taiwan's currency has depreciated even as Taiwan's current account has soared (to 20% in calendar 2025, with 30% expected in 26). But Taiwan is not alone -- the Korean won is also very very weak even as Samsung...
China’s clean‑energy surge is reshaping its energy landscape, with record solar installations and a 30% jump in wind capacity driving more than a third of the nation’s economic growth. Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta highlighted that renewable build‑out now outweighs traditional...
An interesting article from Bloomberg -- but one that misses an important part of the real story by following the recent advice of CATO and the WSJ oped page and ignoring the classic split in the balance of payments between...
Not a total surprise -- the pace of appreciation was clearly pulling in funds betting on a further rise, and the yuan is heading toward levels where the PBOC has resisted appreciation in the past ... 1/
The EU can boost growth by deepening single‑market integration for high‑value services and by accelerating clean‑tech investments. While the United States pursues protectionist manufacturing policies and retreats from climate commitments, it still enjoys a large services surplus that could wane....
The Dollar is falling steadily versus EM. Brazil and Mexico are allowing their currencies to rise, but China, Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Chile are intervening to stop their currencies from rising against the US Dollar. EM currency manipulation is back... https://t.co/4z57KA153r...
India prioritizes national security and economic growth above aggressive, ideologically driven climate policies seen in some European countries. India seeks to cut power sector coal imports by 30% this year, sources say https://t.co/bA7W0ywe6Y
President Sadyr Japarov orchestrated a sweeping purge in early February, sidelining security chief Kamchybek Tashiev and removing several ministers, regional mayors and parliamentary deputies. He also curbed the power of the GKNB, arresting its Bishkek head and announcing a new...
The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it. Full Newsletter:...
"If you look at the hard numbers, China is capital starved right now—it's the least crowded trade in the world." - Ed Grefenstette (EP.488) With thanks to @AlphaSenseInc, @MorningstarInc, and Ridgeline.
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
"how China became the leader of the global south" will be a macro theme receiving tons of ink in coming years. Incidentally, this was always Mao's dream
China's surplus is understated after 2022, as China adjusted its BoP methodology to shade its reported surplus down -- and given China's size, its surplus is massive v the global economy (even more true using customs trade) 1/2
The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) received a major re‑authorization embedded in the FY2026 NDAA, boosting its contingent liability limit to $205 billion and expanding geographic eligibility for ICT projects. The bill creates a $5 billion equity revolving fund—though unfunded—and grants new...
When industrial companies were rewarded by the stock market for moving production to China, it was like a starting gun going off for jobs moving to China. Fade calls that AI will not be that disruptive to white collar jobs; the...
U.S. and Iranian officials held a third indirect nuclear round in Geneva, with Omani mediator Badr al‑Busaidi reporting "significant progress" and promising technical talks in Vienna next week. Tehran floated a framework to suspend enrichment for three to five years...
The United States and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, with Omani mediation reporting significant progress and technical discussions slated for Vienna next week. Simultaneously, Washington has launched its largest Middle East military buildup since...
China is accelerating a strategy to flood the market with low‑cost AI tools, aiming to make its platforms indispensable worldwide. ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0, a text‑to‑video generator, exemplifies this push, while Chinese labs have been accused of harvesting OpenAI‑Claude responses through...
Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava urged a fundamental recasting of India’s customs rules to deliver speed and certainty for exporters. He highlighted that expanding trade volumes, deeper global value‑chain integration, and a booming digital commerce ecosystem demand more efficient, transparent procedures....
The Indian government is preparing to shift Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) filing from a quarterly to a monthly cadence as part of the new income‑tax regime slated for April 1. A parallel proposal seeks to overhaul house‑rent allowance (HRA) exemptions,...
During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit, India and Israel signed multiple agreements to deepen cooperation in technology and cybersecurity. The pacts create a joint innovation fund, enable real‑time cyber‑threat intelligence sharing, and launch collaborative projects in artificial intelligence, quantum...
Investigative reporting reveals that Chinese firms are profiting from the illicit extraction of Venezuela’s “black sands” – coltan, niobium and tin – by partnering with armed groups. The minerals travel via river and land routes into Colombia, where fraudulent paperwork...
In order to have successful capital markets, you see the same things happen again and again. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, you have to keep interest rates not so high that they crush the debtor, without having them...
The Global Questions Series explores the Butterfly Effect, showing how tiny diplomatic signals or policy tweaks can cascade into major geopolitical outcomes. It explains that initial conditions—power balances, leadership psychology, and economic interdependence—shape the trajectory of international systems. By contrasting...
India’s Generation X is projected to spend over $500 billion on goods and services by FY 30, according to RedSeer. The cohort’s spending will be led by preventive healthcare ($73 billion, 17% CAGR) and nutraceuticals ($20 billion, 25% CAGR). Premiumisation will also drive growth in...
Bruegel and the India International Centre hosted a multi‑day forum in Brussels to dissect the newly signed EU‑India Free Trade Agreement and its broader strategic implications. Sessions covered global challenges such as climate change, AI governance, and shifting trade dynamics,...
India’s Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan warned that social‑media influencers are propagating a false narrative that processed foods are unhealthy, harming industry growth. Speaking at the ANVESH‑2026 conference, he urged a coordinated effort, including a national campaign and influencer partnerships,...
Javier Milei’s liberal‑market agenda has sparked a sharp divide in Argentina, with early macro data showing a modest rebound while safety‑net programs crumble for the poor. Supporters hail the reforms as a break from historic boom‑bust cycles, whereas critics warn...
Shell India’s new scenarios sketch projects that India’s total energy demand will outpace the United States in the 2040s and overtake China by the 2060s, driven by rapid economic and population growth. The report shows the fossil‑fuel share in the...
Armenia is negotiating a U.S.-backed small modular reactor (SMR) program that could add up to 30% of GDP to its public debt in a worst‑case scenario. The $9 billion figure reflects a sovereign‑guaranteed loan rather than direct foreign investment, contrasting with...
