Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Indian Startup Funding Plummets 83% to $60.4M in Week Ending Apr 18, 2026
Inc42 reports that Indian startups raised just $60.4 million in 15 deals during the week ending April 18, 2026 – an 83% decline from the previous week. The sharp slowdown follows months of rapid capital inflows and may herald a brief cooling period for the ecosystem.
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Multinationals Double Down on China, Boosting $200M McCain Plant and 14% Foreign Investment Rise
Multinational firms are deepening their foothold in China, highlighted by McCain Foods' $200 million potato‑processing plant and a 14% year‑on‑year jump in new foreign‑invested enterprises. Executives cite China’s integrated industrial chain, market scale and policy stability as the key draw for...
Tanzanian Girls Enroll in Mandarin Classes at Zanaki Secondary School
Zanaki Secondary School in Dar es Salaam has introduced Mandarin Chinese classes, enrolling girls such as 13‑year‑old Rosemary Thadei Mushi and 15‑year‑old Koletha Fikiri Mtakuja. The program, built by pioneering teacher Ema Silagomi, reflects a growing African appetite for Chinese...
Maldives Seeks Extension of India's $400 Million Currency Swap Amid Liquidity Crunch
The Maldives has formally asked India to prolong its $400 million currency swap line as the island nation battles a sharp drop in tourism, soaring energy costs and a $500 million Sukuk repayment. India’s government is weighing the request against existing rules...
Iranian Gunboats Fire on Tanker as Strait of Hormuz Closed, Threatening Global Oil Flow
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy fired on a tanker and re‑imposed a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, reversing a brief reopening. The move halted passage for vessels carrying roughly 20% of world oil, prompting India to summon...
Greater China Startup Funding Hits $7.8B in March, 15‑Month High
Greater China startups raised just under $7.8 billion in March 2026, a 45.9% increase from February and the highest monthly total in 15 months. The surge was driven by a 62.3% jump in deal volume and a wave of megadeals worth...
Global Economy Splits Into Diverging Realities This Week
FYI, the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets, including what has evolved into a tale of two (if not more) realities. https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-550?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w4wbe/?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Btfqi0xMNTveCEbORqFBpMw%3D%3D #economy #markets
The China 5: Illusions of Growth, AI in Warfare, and Shifting Trade
China reported a respectable 5% Q1 GDP growth, but the surge is driven by state‑led infrastructure spending and mounting debt, while private consumption, exports and investment falter. At the same time, Chinese AI firms are providing near‑real‑time tracking of U.S....
Inside Absa Plan to Acquire More African Banks After Uganda, Mauritius Buyouts
South Africa’s Absa Group has unveiled a revised pan‑African strategy that accelerates acquisitions and greenfield projects after recent purchases in Mauritius and Uganda. The plan reorganises the bank into three continent‑wide units—Corporate & Investment Banking, Personal & Private Banking, and...
China’s Gold Demand Quantified
China’s gold accumulation strategy, launched by the People’s Bank of China in 1983 and continued through 2002, has built a massive reserve that far exceeds official figures. Recent spikes in bullion prices, driven by weakening fiat currencies, are prompting Chinese...
Global Shock Feared as Iran Tightens Grip on Hormuz, Qatar Says Impact “Not Far Away”
Qatar’s finance minister warned that Iran’s tightening grip on the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a broader energy and commodity shock within months. The narrow waterway carries about one‑fifth of global energy supplies, a third of fertilizer trade and supports...
China Wins Back Elite Talent, Boosting Tech Outlook
Macro: China reclaims elite talent as US social strain and visa barriers drive returns. Key: media push, R&D incentives, income/prices. Risks: slowdown, geopolitics. Overweight China tech 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
India to Grow 6.8%-7.1% in FY27, Defies Oil Shock Pressures: SBI Report
SBI Research projects India’s GDP to expand between 6.8% and 7.1% in FY27, despite a fresh oil price shock and heightened West Asian tensions. The outlook follows a robust FY26 growth rate of 7.6%, mirroring the country’s resilience during the...
From Aid to Investment: Africa Redraws the Terms of Partnership with Europe
At the Africa‑Europe Finance Ministers' Platform, AUDA‑NEPAD chief Nardos Bekele‑Thomas declared that Africa will no longer accept passive aid but will pursue strategic co‑investment with Europe. She highlighted the EU’s upcoming 2028‑2034 budget, which earmarks roughly $66 billion for Sub‑Saharan Africa,...
India Switches to Yuan for Iranian Oil Purchases
This reported now in BT but the news several days old. We discussed it in the Daily Energy Report: Iran set the conditions for LPG and oil imports. Desperation is relative. India settles Iranian oil...
US Expands Energy
I have to admit it — it genuinely scares me when my predictions turn out to be right U.S. seeks bigger energy foothold in India.
Bangladesh Raises Fuel Prices as Iran War Drives up Costs
Bangladesh announced a 10‑15% increase in retail fuel prices, raising petrol to 135 taka (about $1.10) per litre and diesel to 115 taka. The hike reflects soaring global crude costs and supply disruptions linked to the seven‑week‑old Iran‑Israel conflict. The...
Houthis Vow Strait Blockade over Trump's Peace Obstruction
JUST IN: Yemen's Houthis threaten to block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key trade route, if US President Donald Trump keeps impeding peace efforts.
ILF: Bullish On Latin America, But I Don't Love This Fund's Portfolio
The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) has rallied over the past year as commodity prices and favorable political shifts lift regional markets. The fund’s portfolio is heavily weighted toward Brazil, offering limited exposure to smaller economies and the burgeoning...
Oil Prices Drop Over 9% as Iran Keeps Hormuz Open, Easing Supply‑Chain Fears
Oil benchmarks plunged more than 9% on Friday after Iran announced commercial vessels could continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing geopolitical risk and lowering freight costs. Brent settled at $90.38 a barrel, while WTI fell to $83.85, marking the...
Greenland Approves 92.5% Stake Transfer in Tanbreez Rare Earth Mine Amid U.S. Influence Debate
Greenland’s Ministry of Mineral Resources and Business approved an indirect transfer that lifts Critical Metals Corp’s stake in the Tanbreez rare‑earth mine to 92.5%. The move, seen as a strategic win for the company, has ignited criticism over perceived U.S....
U.S. Pushes for More Namibian Uranium to Power AI-Driven Nuclear Plants
The United States is considering a significant increase in uranium imports from Namibia to supply AI‑driven nuclear power plants. Ambassador John Giordano said the move could involve new mining output backed by American financing, a shift that challenges China’s current...
Winter, Waves and the Return of the Unresolved
The Philippines is entering the "winter" phase of a multidecade Kondratieff cycle, marked by slowing growth and heightened risk aversion. The PSEi has been consolidating despite post‑pandemic earnings recovery, while corporate leverage relative to market value has risen to levels...
MIDiA Unveils 2022 Music Subscriber Share Data for 23 Streaming Services
MIDiA Research has published its annual music‑subscriber market‑share report, detailing data for 23 digital service providers across 33 markets. The dataset shows Chinese platforms Tencent Music Entertainment and NetEase Cloud Music outpacing Western rivals as the streaming sector proves resilient...
IEA Warns of Fuel Price Surge as Southeast Asia Rushes $1.5 Bn Renewable Build‑out
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the ongoing fuel crisis is the "largest energy security threat in history," prompting Southeast Asian governments to fast‑track renewable projects worth more than $1.5 billion. The region is adding solar, hydro, wind and pumped‑storage capacity...
Forbion Crowned Europe’s Largest Independent VC, Targets Asian Expansion
Forbion has been named Europe’s largest independent venture capital firm and, in the same announcement, unveiled a plan to seek new life‑science investments across Asia. Managing Partner Sander Slootweg said the move aims to offset funding constraints in Europe and...
From Friday High Fives to Monday Morning Blues ?
A sharp oil rally over the weekend was driven more by trader positioning and flow dynamics than by any genuine improvement in fundamentals. The sudden shift from an open to a threatened Strait of Hormuz forced the market to price...
G7 Finance Ministers Commit Funding to Cut China Dependence in Critical Minerals
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven met in Washington on April 17 and agreed to cooperate on funding mechanisms that will diversify supply chains for lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. The pact targets over‑reliance on China and seeks...
AIIB Warns Water‑finance Plunge Threatens Emerging‑market Credit and Growth
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s 2026 “Where the Water Flows” report says water‑related financing dropped from 30% of development finance in 2000 to about 10% in 2020, heightening economic risk for emerging markets. The study links rising water stress to...
China Q1 GDP Hits 5% YoY, DBS Trims 2026 Rate‑Cut Forecast to 10 Bps
DBS Group Research cut its 2026 one‑year LPR easing forecast to a 10‑basis‑point cut after China reported a 5.0% year‑on‑year GDP expansion in Q1 2026. The stronger‑than‑expected growth, driven by export demand, reduces urgency for aggressive monetary easing, a shift...
India to Benefit From US Extension of Russian Oil Waiver
The United States has extended a limited waiver for Russian oil transactions until May 16, 2026, covering cargoes already in transit or contracted before the cut‑off date. The extension, granted despite political opposition, does not signal a broader easing of sanctions...
Could It Be Goodbye Dubai, Hello Istanbul?
Turkey is courting Gulf and Asian investors with a new incentive package for its Istanbul Financial Center, positioning the city as a potential alternative to Dubai amid regional instability. The government, led by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, promises tax breaks...
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Again as Vessels Attempting to Cross Come Under Fire
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after gunfire struck a tanker, reversing a brief reopening. Tehran warned any vessel attempting passage will be treated as cooperating with the United States and could be targeted. The...
How Hong Kong Can Beat Singapore as the Launch Pad for Chinese Firms
Chinese firms seeking overseas growth now view Hong Kong and Singapore as competing launch pads. Singapore’s Economic Development Board offers a streamlined “no‑wrong‑door” process that guides entrepreneurs from entry to regional expansion. Hong Kong, despite the GoGlobal Task Force and...
China’s Birth Slump Adds to Aging Burden: Researcher
China’s birthrate has plunged to 7.92 million newborns in 2025, just 44% of the 2016 level, pushing the total population to 1.4049 billion after four consecutive years of decline. The sharp drop has forced the closure of 20,000 kindergartens in 2024, eliminating...
Carney’s Pivot to Beijing: Did the Canada China Business Council Help Pen Ottawa’s China Reset?
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s January 16, 2026 Beijing address marked a decisive pivot toward China, openly crediting the Canada China Business Council (CCBC) for keeping diplomatic channels open. He unveiled a "new strategic partnership" covering electric vehicles, agriculture, energy, multilateral...
BTG Pactual TIG Secures $370 Million for Latin America Timberland Strategy
BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group (TIG) closed a $370 million first close for its new Latin America timberland strategy, aiming to deploy $1.5 billion over five years. The raise underscores the investment bank’s role in structuring ESG‑focused capital for large‑scale natural‑resource assets.
Freshfields Elevates Four Partners Across Asia, Signaling Aggressive Regional Growth
Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer announced the promotion of four lawyers to partner status across its Asian offices in 2026. The move is part of the firm’s broader push to deepen capabilities in high‑growth markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and...
Ghana Braces for Oil‑Price Shock Amid Stronger Macro Foundations
Ghana's economy confronts a fresh oil‑price shock from Middle East tensions, but enters the storm with a 14% policy rate, Treasury bills under 5%, inflation below target and higher reserves. Analysts say the stronger macro backdrop could blunt the impact...
For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent
Iran has leveraged its control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes, to create a new strategic deterrent amid ongoing US‑Israel hostilities. Despite heavy strikes on Iran’s leadership and missile facilities, Tehran’s ability to...
China’s EV Surge Fuels Bullish Lithium Outlook
China’s EV production capacity: >20 million vehicles/year Actual EV production (2024): ~12.9 million China exported >1.2 million EVs in 2024 Everyone should go long Lithium…
The Price of War
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil, has been effectively shut after Israel’s heavy strikes on Lebanon and U.S. sanctions on non‑Iranian tankers. The closure coincides with a fragile cease‑fire and a U.S....
Bitcoin Surges Past $70,000 to $77,000 as Middle East Tensions Ease
Bitcoin leapt to $77,000 on Friday, breaking the $70,000 barrier for the first time since February. The rally was triggered by a sudden easing of geopolitical risk after the Strait of Hormuz opened and a cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon...
Iraq Moves to Restart Oil Exports as It Seeks Stability and Revenue
Iraq announced it will restart oil exports from all fields within days, aiming to boost state revenue and stabilize domestic fuel supplies. The Ministry of Oil is also opening a new black‑oil outlet through Syria’s Baniyas port to diversify export...
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Kazakh Gas Sector Comes of Age, Spurns Western Partners for CITIC
Kazakhstan’s state‑owned KazMunayGas is set to partner with China’s CITIC to construct a gas‑treatment plant at the Karachaganak field, after a dispute led to the exclusion of Western partners Eni and Shell. The move underscores a strategic pivot toward Chinese...
Rupee Depreciation Forces Indian Firms to Adopt Yuan Payments, Boost Local Sourcing
Indian manufacturers are increasingly paying Chinese suppliers in yuan to offset the rupee’s 4‑5% slide against the dollar. Companies such as PG Electroplast and Super Plastronics have begun yuan‑based settlements, while Godrej Appliances is exploring the option. Retailer Lifestyle has...
Iran Shifts Tactics: Stock Manipulation Over Oil, Gunboats Attack
Can Iranians be pumping and dumping stocks instead of oil? Iranian gunboats fire on tanker after Strait of Hormuz closed again.
Iran’s Hormuz Whiplash Highlights Divide Within Regime as U.S. Blockade Tightens. ‘The Fight Between Different Factions Has Started’
Iran’s military announced the Strait of Hormuz closed again after a day of contradictory statements from the foreign ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC publicly rebuked Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s claim that the waterway was fully...