Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Recalibrating the India-South Korea Strategic Partnership
President Lee Jae‑myung's three‑day visit to India is framed as a strategic inflection point rather than routine diplomacy. South Korea faces a deepening split between its US‑anchored security alliance and a trade dependence of 20‑25% on China. India‑South Korea trade already exceeds $27 billion, with ambitions to reach $50 billion and over $10 billion Korean investment in India. The visit seeks to move beyond transactional MoUs toward deeper defence, technology and maritime cooperation to bolster regional autonomy.
Thailand Banks on EU Trade Deal
Thailand is accelerating negotiations on an EU‑Thailand free‑trade agreement as the EU finalised a landmark FTA with India. Eight rounds of talks have produced agreements on trade remedies, public‑health exceptions and market‑access rules, bringing the total to 11 of 24...
Recommended Weekend Reads
The curated weekend reads underscore how the Iran‑War is reshaping global energy prices, inflating costs and reviving debate over the petrodollar’s relevance, while Gulf states grapple with three post‑war scenarios ranging from cooperation to fragmentation. In Europe, a trans‑Atlantic economic...
In Wake of Iran War, Chinese Manufacturers Recalibrate Overseas Expansion Plans
Chinese manufacturers are reassessing overseas expansion after the Iran war heightened geopolitical risk and shipping costs. Domestic profit margins have narrowed while capacity utilization sits near 85%, prompting firms to seek higher‑margin markets abroad. Companies are scaling back projects in...
The Bigger Energy Lesson Behind Iran’s Control Over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, prompting a sharp dip in oil prices and a modest rally in equity markets. The reopening, however, does not erase the underlying geopolitical risk that the strait can be...
Energy 'Sovereignty' Drives Mexico's Rethink on Gas Fracking
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum signaled a policy shift by allowing unconventional shale‑gas development near the U.S. border, reversing the strict bans imposed by her predecessor. The move aims to boost domestic gas production and lessen Mexico’s reliance on imported U.S....
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much Ado About Oil
In this J.P. Morgan Weekender episode, Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dissect the implications of a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader U.S.-Iran agreement on oil markets. They outline a baseline scenario where a modest, sustained...
BlackRock Overweights Emerging Markets, Citing Korea’s Tech Boom
BlackRock announced an overweight stance on emerging‑market equities, pointing to a rapid earnings surge in South Korea as a primary catalyst. The move follows a 0.95% rise in the KOSPI and a 47% year‑to‑date gain that outpaces most global indices.
Polaris Secures $80 Million to Accelerate India's Smart‑Meter Rollout
Polaris Smart Metering Private Limited has closed an $80 million financing round with British International Investment (BII). The capital will fund the deployment of more than 2.2 million advanced metering infrastructure units in West Bengal, advancing India's target of 250 million smart meters...
Barings Launches Abu Dhabi Office, Boosting Gulf Investment‑Banking Footprint
Barings announced the opening of a new office in Abu Dhabi's ADGM on April 16, 2026, marking its second Gulf hub after Dubai. The move aims to deepen relationships with sovereign wealth funds, family offices and institutional investors across the...
Ashmore Sees $900 Million Outflows as Middle‑East Tensions Hit Emerging‑Market Assets
Ashmore Group disclosed $900 million of net client withdrawals in the March quarter, driving assets under management down 3% to $50.7 billion. The outflows stem from heightened volatility in the Middle‑East, which is prompting investors to curb new allocations to emerging‑market strategies.
Colombia Leads Emerging‑Market ‘Coalition of the Willing’ to Break Fossil‑Fuel Deadlock
Colombia, together with the Netherlands, hosted a two‑day conference in Santa Marta that gathered 54 countries – many from the Global South – to launch a “coalition of the willing” focused on phasing out fossil fuels. The summit seeks to...
Ascott Launches Citadines Westview Nairobi, Expanding to 23 African Properties by 2028
Ascott Limited signed a development agreement for Citadines Westview Nairobi, adding a new serviced‑apartment brand to its Kenyan footprint. The project will help lift Ascott’s African portfolio to 23 properties and over 2,800 units by 2028, signalling confidence in Nairobi’s...
InvestingLive Americas Market News Wrap: Iran Says Hormuz Is Open, Oil Plunges
Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open, prompting a $10‑per‑barrel drop in oil prices and a brief rally in equities, with the Nasdaq posting its 13th straight session of gains. The U.S. dollar initially sold off, the...
IMF Lowers 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks
The International Monetary Fund reduced its projection for world GDP growth in 2026 to 3.1%, citing intensified geopolitical risks and a slowdown in trade. The downgrade signals tighter policy environments and higher inflation pressures for both advanced and emerging economies.
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Is ‘Completely Open’
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" following the Israel‑Hezbollah cease‑fire, but Washington reiterated its naval blockade, citing unfinished transactions with Tehran. The U.S. Central Command reported 19 ships intercepted since the blockade began, underscoring lingering tension. Oil...
Hormuz Is (Apparently) Unblocked. Energy Markets Remain a Mess
Iran’s foreign minister announced that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open," a sentiment echoed by President Donald Trump. The news sent Brent crude futures tumbling more than 10% to $89 a barrel, their lowest level since...
Hormuz Closure Could Cut Global Energy, Drop GDP 10%
With Iran tensions flaring, a Strait of Hormuz shutdown could slash 10% of global energy. That means a straight 10% GDP collapse, no ifs or buts.
India Pays for Iranian Oil in Yuan, Bypassing Dollars
🇮🇳🇮🇷 India is settling payments for Iranian oil in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars.🤯
Senior Iranian Official: Significant Differences Remain, Serious Talks Required
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that substantial gaps remain in the nuclear talks with the United States, especially on nuclear issues, and that serious negotiations are still required. He indicated a preliminary agreement could be struck within days, potentially...
India Can Handle the Energy Shock if Iran Ceasefire Holds, Top Government Adviser Says
India’s chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said the country can absorb the current energy‑price shock from the Iran war if the cease‑fire holds and extends. He expects oil supply and prices to normalise by the end of Q3 2026, allowing India...
China‑Gulf Ties Could Deepen Despite Iran‑focused U.S. Narrative
This would be quite interesting if it happens and is a reflection of why so much of the Washington chatter about how the China/Gulf story is somehow only an "Iran" story misses a lot. The story is on background and...
Accor Opens Pullman Hotel & Residences in Egypt’s New Capital, Expanding Luxury Hospitality
Accor has opened the Pullman New Capital Hotel & Residences, a 150‑key five‑star hotel plus 100 branded apartments in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital. The development, built with Contact Developments, signals Accor’s push into high‑growth Middle‑East markets and the rise of...
India Explores FTA Full Use with Norway, Sets up Fast-Track Investment System with Austria
India and Norway deepened sectoral cooperation under the TEPA, targeting energy, maritime, pharma and biotech while tackling trade barriers such as SPS measures and certification. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund and Norfund are increasing renewable‑energy investments in India. Concurrently, India and...
India, Austria Launch Fast-Track Investment Mechanism; Flag India-EU FTA as Key Trade Driver
India and Austria have operationalised a bilateral fast‑track mechanism (FTM) to accelerate investment approvals and resolve business disputes promptly. The launch, announced during Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker’s first official visit in over 40 years, underscores the strategic importance of the...
Yuanjie Semiconductor Tops Moutai as China’s Priciest Listed Stock at ¥1,439 ($200)
Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology Co. surged 9.6% to an all‑time high of ¥1,439 ($200) on Friday, eclipsing Kweichow Moutai and becoming the most expensive stock on China’s mainland exchanges. The jump reflects growing investor appetite for advanced photonic chip makers as...
Nasdaq Dubai Raises Over $8 Billion in Fixed‑Income Listings in Q1 2026
Nasdaq Dubai logged 18 fixed‑income listings in the first quarter of 2026, raising over $8 billion and bringing total outstanding debt on the platform to $149 billion. The surge reflects strong issuer demand across sukuk, green bonds and digital notes, underscoring the...
Cuban President Díaz‑Canel Warns of US Aggression, Says Island Ready to Defend Itself
Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel told a rally commemorating the 65th anniversary of the Revolution’s socialist declaration that Cuba does not seek US military aggression but is prepared to fight. The remarks come as Washington tightens an energy blockade and threatens...
Azerbaijan Central Bank Holds USD/Manat at 1.7 Amid Regional FX Turbulence
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan announced on April 17 that the official U.S. dollar to manat rate remains fixed at 1.7 manat. The decision, made alongside unchanged euro, lira and ruble rates, provides a rare data point of stability in...
This Means (Economic) War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that if diplomatic talks with Iran collapse, the administration will launch an intensified economic campaign, leveraging sanctions as a “financial bombing” strategy. The move comes as the International Energy Agency warns Europe faces a...
Google and IDB Launch $0 Funding Partnership to Fast‑Track AI in Latin America
Google and the Inter‑American Development Bank (IDB) unveiled a public‑private partnership to accelerate AI adoption across Latin America, showcasing a pilot that reduced Mexico's audit cycle from ten months to minutes and projecting a 3.6%‑6% uplift in regional economic output.
Mutual Export Controls Harm US, China—Time for Careful Rollback
As I have noted in several posts over the past year, there is a growing recognition that both the US and China have pushed export controls to levels that are damaging to each other’s economies. A Deal Waiting to Be...
China Suspends Import Licences of 3 Indian Rice Export Firms
China has cancelled the import licences of three Indian rice exporters—NM FoodImpex, Shriram Food Industry and Sponge Enterprises—after earlier rejections citing traces of genetically modified organisms. The suspension, effective April 17, follows a month‑long dispute over non‑Basmati rice shipments and may...
Iran War Energy Shock Drives Nuclear Power Plans in Hard-Hit Asia and Africa
The Iran war’s energy shock is driving Asian and African nations to boost nuclear power output and accelerate new reactor projects. South Korea is increasing generation, Taiwan is considering restarting mothballed plants, and Japan has signed a $40 billion reactor deal...
Misguided Hot Takes Misrepresent Indonesia's Nuanced Foreign Policy
No kidding, really? Folks with all the nutty hot takes this week about how Indonesia has "jumped in bed with Washington" and is "booting China" from Southeast Asia in some American game of 463D chess have clearly never actually set...
Half of Global Markets Rebound Amid Iran Conflict
"Looking across 46 different country ETFs since the start of the Iran war, the global picture looks far more resilient than headlines and the chattering media's pundits would suggest. Nearly half of the world's major markets -- 20 out of...
EU to ‘Play Its Part’ to Restore Energy and Trade Flows From Middle East
The European Union announced it is prepared to send additional warships to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz once a ceasefire is secured. EU leaders discussed expanding the Aspides naval mission, which currently operates in the Red Sea, Gulf...
Markets Rally as Hormuz Reopens, Oil Prices Plunge
Stocks surged Friday after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, easing supply fears and sending oil prices sharply lower. The Dow jumped more than 700 points while major indexes hit...
Oil Dips, but Hormuz Ceasefire Keeps Markets Wary
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change. https://t.co/RUshSF8tJh
Virtus Minerals Signs First Major Deal Under US-DRC Critical Minerals Partnership
Virtus Minerals, a U.S. firm with just eight staff, has completed its first major transaction under the U.S.–DRC critical‑minerals pact by acquiring Chemaf and its copper‑cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The purchase includes the Mutoshi mine, which...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Levels, Live Stream Tomorrow
I'm doing a live stream tomorrow morning at 9:30 am (ET) with a summary of all the chatter around this week's IMF/WB Spring meetings, including a discussion of this chart, which shows that EM outflows over the past month were...
Goldman Sachs Boosts MSCI EM Target, Forecasts 10% Upside
GS: We raise our 12m MSCI EM target by ~4% to 1750, implying ~10% upside over 12 months $EEM $VWO https://t.co/Yxz4w8EPPv
Pre-Markets Very Happy About Middle East Developments
A cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices down about 8% and lifting pre‑market futures sharply—+540 points on the Dow, +54 on the S&P 500, +230 on the Nasdaq, and +36 on the Russell 2000....
North Asia EPS Upgrade Raises MSCI EM Forecast
GS: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13% https://t.co/jK4UGxp0LY
Apollo CEO Sees Iran Conflict Boosting Gulf Business Confidence
What Apollo CEO Marc Rowan told me about how he’s thinking about the war in Iran: “I view what’s happening as stabilizing. I view this as ultimately good for business confidence, investment, particularly in the Gulf where I’m very bullish...
The Market’s Iran-Driven Correction Has Likely Run Its Course. This Is What Advisors Need to Know
After weeks of volatility sparked by the Iran‑U.S. conflict, U.S. equity markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs. The VIX fell, indicating reduced fear, and analysts say the Iran‑driven correction has likely run its course. Lower...
US Oil Blockade Opens Strait, Offers Ukraine Lessons
Big thanks to @biannagolodryga for having me on @CNN to talk about the US blockade of Iranian oil and its role in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of lessons to learn here, especially on how the West confronts...
War Slashes Growth in Middle East, Low‑Income Nations
The impact of the war on the global economy as measured by revisions to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook: a very significant hit to the Middle East itself and Low-income Developing Economics. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in...
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
Trump Claims Iran Clearing Hormuz Sea Mines
US President Donald Trump says Iran is "removing" all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz