Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
India and U.S. forge $20 billion critical minerals framework
India and the United States signed a bilateral framework in New Delhi on May 26 to cooperate on critical minerals and rare‑earth supply chains. The pact covers mining, processing, recycling and project financing and could mobilise up to $20 billion, tapping India’s estimated 13 million tonnes of monazite deposits.
Amid Wartime Disruptions, Most Emerging-Market Central Banks Will Follow the Fed
The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook trimmed emerging‑market (EM) growth for 2026 to 3.9% from 4.2% and nudged inflation expectations up to 5.5%, while advanced economies remain near 1.8% growth. The Iran war has amplified energy‑price shocks and a volatile dollar, prompting many EM central banks to halt planned rate cuts and lean on tighter policy. Historical data show EM policymakers follow the U.S. Federal Reserve about 60% of the time, with a 100‑basis‑point Fed hike translating into a roughly 50‑basis‑point rise in EM rates. Consequently, EM economies now face a double bind of slower growth and higher inflation.
Europe’s Economic Emergency
European leaders are urged to prioritize economic growth as the cornerstone of the bloc’s strategic autonomy. The article argues that a strong industrial and technological base is necessary for self‑defence in a volatile global environment. However, the EU’s agenda is...
West Asia Crisis: India, Qatar Discuss Ways to Boost Trade, Strengthen Supply Chains
India and Qatar met virtually to explore ways to expand bilateral trade and shore up supply‑chain resilience amid disruptions caused by the West Asia crisis. Trade between the two nations stood at $14 billion in FY24‑25, with both sides targeting a...
MOSCOW BLOG: EU Unblocks Ukrainian Loan, Twentieth Sanctions Package, as Kyiv Builds a Robot Army
The European Union approved a €90 bn ($97 bn) loan for Ukraine, allocating roughly €45 bn ($48.6 bn) to defence this year and covering the first three quarters of 2025. At the same time the EU adopted its twentieth sanctions package against Russia, though...
Exiled Iranian Prince Calls on Germany’s Merz to Halt Talks with Regime in Tehran
Exiled Iranian prince Reza Pahlavi urged German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to stop diplomatic talks with Tehran as European leaders prepare for a crisis summit in Cyprus focused on the Iran‑Israel war. Pahlavi criticized the EU’s status‑quo approach, calling for stronger...
Hungary: Crossroads Ahead
Hungary’s April 12 election ended Viktor Orbán’s 16‑year rule, ushering in Peter Magyar’s Tisza party. The new government inherits a stagnant economy but Fitch projects 2.3% GDP growth in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, with inflation easing to 3.5%. Foreign...
UK’s BII Rolls Out $1.5 B Fund to Finance Asia’s Energy‑Transition Projects
British International Investment (BII) has launched a £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) fund aimed at equity and mezzanine financing for energy‑transition assets in India, the Philippines, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian markets. The fund will target power generation, transmission, storage, electric‑vehicle infrastructure and...
Vietnam, Philippines Face Sharpest ASEAN Inflation Due to Iran War
Talking about demand decline? here are additional examples ASEAN inflation: Vietnam and Philippines hit hardest by Iran war https://t.co/5t6VZtznvz
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire While US Blockade Persists, Raising Stakes for Emerging Markets
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week extension of the US‑Iran ceasefire on April 23, citing Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The move comes as the United States maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports, seizing...
Mexico's Economy Minister Urges Future‑Focused Trade Over Zero‑Tariff Nostalgia
JUST IN: Mexico's economy minister warns against longing for the zero-tariff era, pushing for a forward-thinking trade strategy.
Nigerian Naira Slides to ₦1,350/$ as Reserves Drop $1.4 Bn
The Nigerian naira weakened to roughly ₦1,350 per U.S. dollar on April 21, 2026, as external reserves fell by $1.4 bn to $48.62 bn. The slide reflects sustained demand for foreign currency, a widening official‑parallel market gap, and volatile oil prices that...
Moody's Cuts India's FY27 Growth Forecast to 6% Amid West Asia Conflict
Moody's Investors Service reduced its projection for India's fiscal year 2026‑27 GDP growth to 6%, down from 6.8%, blaming weaker consumption, softer industrial activity and soaring energy prices linked to the West Asia conflict. The downgrade clashes with Assocham's optimism...
Iran Says First Hormuz Toll Revenue Deposited at Central Bank
Iran announced that the first revenue from its newly imposed Strait of Hormuz tolls has been deposited into the Central Bank of Iran. The tolls charge up to $2 million per tanker and roughly $1 per barrel of oil, with two...
Bangladesh, EU Strike Deal on Trade, Investment, Sustainable Development
On 21 April the EU and Bangladesh signed a modern Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, the first such pact for any South Asian nation. The 82‑article deal covers political dialogue, trade, investment and strategic sectors such as energy, transport and agriculture, while...
Sergiy Nikolaychuk: Ukraine's Economic and Financial Sector Resilience
Sergiy Nikolaychuk highlighted Ukraine’s remarkable economic and financial resilience after five years of full‑scale war. Despite a 28.8% GDP contraction in 2022, the economy rebounded with 5.5% growth in 2023 and is projected to expand 1.8% in 2026, while inflation...
US Rejects Media Reports Claiming that Hormuz Blockade Was Breached
U.S. Central Command refuted media reports that Iranian‑linked tankers breached the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM clarified that no vessels have entered or left Iranian ports since the blockade began, and only 31 ships were ordered...
Has the World Bank Performed a U-Turn on Industrial Policy?
The World Bank’s latest research paper suggests a marked shift toward endorsing selective industrial policies, a departure from its long‑standing free‑market orthodoxy. Historically, the Bank and IMF have conditioned assistance on liberal reforms, dismissing government‑directed winner‑taking as ineffective. The new...
Xi Wants the Strait of Hormuz Reopened; Cakes and An E-Commerce Crackdown; The Next Stage of Decoupling; The MATCH Act...
In this episode of Sharp China, Andrew Sharp and Bill Bishop dissect a recent call between Xi Jinping and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on China's call for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open amid ongoing Iranian...
How the Iran War Has Stoked Competition Between India and China for Russian Oil
India and China are now locked in a tight race for Russian crude, each securing roughly 1.6 million barrels per day in April. The competition intensified after Iranian attacks disrupted Gulf supplies and the U.S. renewed a waiver allowing sanctioned Russian...
What Would a Permanent ‘Tehran’s Tollbooth’ on Oil Mean for the World?
Iran’s peace plan proposes a $2 million toll per tanker—about $1 per barrel—for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The charge would add roughly $7 billion a year to global oil costs and could keep Brent crude near $100 per barrel through...
Indian Equities Slide on Middle East Tensions
JUST IN: Indian equities slide as financial and auto stocks pull back amid Middle East tensions.
UK Launches £1.1bn Fund for Asia Energy Transition
The UK’s development finance institution creates a £1.1 billion fund to back energy transition sectors in India and Southeast Asia https://t.co/1JpgOa9ZGQ
Iran War, Oil Shock Fail to Dent India’s Private Sector Growth as April PMI Rises
India’s private‑sector activity accelerated in April, with the HSBC flash Composite PMI climbing to 58.3 from 57.0 in March. Manufacturing led the rebound, posting a PMI of 55.9 and an output index of 59.1, while services modestly rose to a...
India 'Tough Nut to Crack', Says USTR Greer as Negotiators Wrap up Trade Talks Round
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called India a “tough nut to crack” as New Delhi’s delegation wrapped up a three‑day round of talks on a bilateral trade pact. The negotiations focus on India’s long‑standing protection of its agricultural markets, with distillers...
Big Bet on Orban’s Exit Came From Center of His Family’s Empire
Equilor Asset Management, part‑owned by Viktor Orban’s son‑in‑law, built a heavy overweight in Hungarian government bonds and equities ahead of the April 12 election. The fund’s bet paid off when the opposition Tisza party won decisively, sending the BUX index to record...
China Is Expanding Its Trade War Toolbox
China has enacted a sweeping industrial and supply‑chain security law that establishes an early‑warning system to monitor disruptions and empowers the government to retaliate against foreign firms perceived as threatening Chinese interests. The regulation gives Beijing the authority to prohibit...
Unrestricted Warfare Without War: China’s Below-Threshold Strategy in Latin America
China is deploying an "unrestricted warfare" strategy in Latin America, leveraging trade, loans, infrastructure, legal frameworks, and digital standards to reshape the regional strategic environment below the threshold of armed conflict. In 2024 Chinese trade with the region exceeded $500 billion,...
India's Digital Currency Push Targets Its Leaky Welfare System
India’s Reserve Bank is piloting the e‑rupee, a central bank digital currency, to streamline its $80 billion welfare system. The program, run with the World Bank and state partners, targets sectors like farm subsidies and food rationing, with an estimated 10 million...
HSBC Downgrades India to 'Underweight' As Oil Shock Clouds Earnings Recovery
HSBC downgraded Indian equities to underweight from neutral, marking its second downgrade in less than a month. The move follows a 42% surge in Brent crude since February, with prices now above $100 a barrel, heightening inflation and growth risks...
Not Even Iran War’s Oil Shock Will Help China Reflate
China’s ten‑year sovereign bond yields briefly rose after the Iran‑related oil shock but fell back, underscoring persistent deflationary pressure. The People’s Bank of China kept benchmark rates unchanged for 11 months, while fiscal stimulus remained modest and focused on capacity‑building...
Mid-Week Macro (4/22/2026)
Wall Street rallied to a 1% gain, closing the S&P 500 at 7,137, just shy of an all‑time high, as investors remain hopeful the Iran conflict will end and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The author warns that this optimism...
Sensex, Nifty to Open Lower as Crude Prices Top $100 on Iran War Uncertainty
India’s equity benchmarks are set to open lower on Thursday as Brent crude breached $102 a barrel following Iran’s seizure of two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. HSBC downgraded Indian equities to underweight, warning that the country’s heavy reliance...
Oil Prices up Amid Stalemate over Next Round of Peace Talks, Continued Blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as the United States and Iran maintained naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping roughly one‑fifth of global oil supplies disrupted. Brent settled at $102.40 a barrel and WTI at $93.51, reflecting a...
How Digital Special Economic Zones Could Unlock Africa for Global Tech Companies
Digital Special Economic Zones (DSEZs) are emerging across Africa as cloud‑based jurisdictions that let global tech firms set up legal entities without a physical office. Itana, a leading DSEZ provider, explains how the model streamlines incorporation, compliance, talent access, and...
PBOC Injects $1.4 Billion, Extending China Bond Rally
The People’s Bank of China pumped a net 9.5 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) into the banking system through seven‑day reverse repos on April 21‑22, a move that surprised markets given already abundant liquidity. The injection lifted 10‑year futures for a third straight...
Shanghai Composite Opens at 4,074.8, Down 0.25%, Signaling Cautious Tone in Chinese Markets
The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 4,074.81 points, down 0.25%, marking a modest start for China’s main market. Parallel dips across Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Japan and other Asian benchmarks underscored a broader risk‑off mood, while U.S. indices also closed lower.
Administration Worries About Dwindling GCC Investment Inflows
Good Politico story on the Administration's concerns about the loss of GCC investments here ... https://t.co/JySqztN8q4
Hillhouse‑Backed Ascentium Acquires Dezan Shira to Ride $174 Billion China Outbound Surge
Ascentium, the Hillhouse‑backed business‑services platform, announced the acquisition of Dezan Shira & Associates, adding offices in Guangzhou and Tianjin and doubling its Vietnam footprint. The deal positions Ascentium to capture China’s $174 billion outbound investment surge and the growing demand from...
Freshworks CEO Dennis Woodside Calls for Certainty Amid Tariffs, Wars and AI Surge
Freshworks President and CEO Dennis Woodside told BW Businessworld that leaders must forge certainty for teams while the company confronts tariff‑driven cost spikes, regional data‑center failures and an AI‑driven transformation. He highlighted the firm’s 75,000‑customer base, 1,300 Middle‑East clients and...
G
A bit more on the GCC swap line puzzle (why the ask, and why is Bessent apparently keen to say yes to a set of countries with tons of assets) There doesn't seem to be any shortage of good collateral (Treasuries)...
RBI Governor Warns of Short‑Term FX Volatility, Monitors FDI Outflows Amid West Asia Crisis
Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned that the rupee could face heightened short‑term volatility after a 4% slide since March, and said the central bank is closely tracking foreign direct investment outflows. He reiterated that RBI’s forex interventions...
Central Asia in Race to Close Power-Generation Gap – Report
Central Asian nations are racing to close a growing electricity gap as they launch AI hubs and data centers, but current generation capacity—still dominated by aging hydropower—cannot meet the surge in demand. The New Lines Institute report warns that population...
Study: Iran War Accelerating China's Solar and Battery Export Boom
China's exports of solar and battery components surged dramatically in March, reaching a record 68 GW of solar capacity—double February's level. The spike was driven by higher oil and gas prices caused by the Iran war, prompting worldwide demand for clean‑energy...
Hormuz Standoff the 'Largest Supply Shock' Ever Experienced, Says Global Energy Expert
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stopped after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s petrochemical flow. Karen Young of Columbia University estimates that about 600 million barrels of oil have been stranded...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Thursday 23 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two cargo ships and fired on a third in the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude above $100 per barrel. South Korea’s producer‑price index jumped 4.1% year‑on‑year in March, the strongest rise in three...
Thailand Exposed to Widening War Impact
Thailand’s economy is increasingly vulnerable as the Middle East conflict drives up oil prices, prompting the IMF to lower its 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%. The country imports about 52% of its energy from the region, amplifying exposure to price...
What Orbán’s Defeat in Hungary Means for the Western Balkans
Viktor Orbán’s surprise defeat on April 12 ends a 16‑year era in which Hungary acted as the Balkans’ chief patron of illiberal regimes. Under Orbán, Budapest funneled roughly $1.6 billion in foreign direct investment into the region, backing Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić, Chinese‑financed...
Landlocked Nations Need Diverse Links, Not Single-Partner Dependence
I'm afraid you can build a highway from Kyrgyzstan to western China but not from Kyrgyzstan to California. So if you're a landlocked economy, you do build infrastructure links to contiguous countries like China, especially when they have been growing,...
Mexico Eyes Development Bank Chief as US Ambassador
SCOOP: Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum is considering development bank head Roberto Lazzeri as a candidate for ambassador to the US, a move that would mark the second major personnel shift ahead of USMCA trade talks, sources tell me @michaelob_mex & me https://t.co/JopwSJrCg8
George Friedman on Why Australia and Japan Are the Future of the Pacific
Japan and Australia announced a $7 billion agreement for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build three stealth frigates for Australia, with eight more to be constructed locally. George Friedman argues the deal marks a strategic shift, positioning the two maritime nations as...