Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
AI Boom Is Hiding Korea’s Next Crisis
South Korea’s KOSPI surged to a record 6,400 in early 2026, propelled by AI‑driven demand for semiconductors from Samsung and SK Hynix. Despite the rally, the economy faces deep structural challenges, including chaebol concentration, soaring household debt, and a rigid labor market. The government has introduced reforms such as banning treasury shares and extending FX trading hours to address the persistent “Korea discount.” However, MSCI still refuses to upgrade Korea to developed‑market status, leaving long‑term growth uncertain.
Foreign Investors Beware: Philippines Expropriation Risks Highlighted
Further to this theme - anyone who is even sniffing an investment opportunity (as a foreigner) in the Philippines should look at what is going on with Celsius $CLA.AX right now. Same playbook as boatload of other FDI into the...
War and Sanctions Accelerate China’s Currency Push
China is accelerating its long‑term effort to internationalize the renminbi as a way to sidestep U.S. sanctions. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have pushed Russia, Iran and other sanctioned economies toward yuan‑denominated trade, giving Beijing a foothold in de‑dollarization....
Can China’s EV Surge Conquer Overseas Markets?
China’s auto sector is turning a domestic sales slump into an export drive, aiming to sell surplus electric vehicles abroad as domestic demand fell 18% YoY in Q1. Exports rose 20% to 5.8 million cars in 2023 and are projected to...
Oil Futures Hit Record Pessimism Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
The news out of the Middle East might have seemed less dire lately, but oil futures are now basically as pessimistic as they've ever been. This could be a concern that the current war continues, or it could be concern...
Pictet Unveils Active Emerging‑Markets Debt and Equity ETFs for U.S. Investors
Pictet Asset Management has launched two active exchange‑traded funds, the Emerging Markets Debt ETF (EMFI) and the Emerging Markets Rising Economies ETF (RISE), to give U.S. investors direct exposure to sovereign and corporate bonds and equities in emerging economies. The...
Qatar's $600B Surplus Faces First Deficit in Decade
Qatar's accumulated current account surplus (which excludes capital gains on the QIA's investments) over the last 40ys is USD 600b give or take Qatar can afford a few months of deficits . But it still hurts https://t.co/zcG5etAkVY
Singapore Emerging as Neutral Ground as AI Firms Navigate Sino-US Rivalry
Singapore is rebranding itself as a neutral AI hub amid intensifying U.S.-China tech rivalry. Chinese startups such as Topview are relocating to sidestep government oversight, while U.S. firms seek talent without the friction of tightened H‑1B rules. The city‑state offers...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8400 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8400, a key daily fixing watched by Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system anchors the yuan within a ±2% band around the midpoint, which the PBOC...
Nigeria's President Tinubu Dismisses Finance Minister, Names Tax Reform Chief as Successor
President Bola Tinubu has removed Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed and appointed Taiwo Oyedele, the former head of the tax reform committee, as the new finance minister. The reshuffle comes as Nigeria grapples with $111 billion in public debt and mounting pressure...
Indonesian Rupiah Breaks 17,300 per Dollar as Global Uncertainty Fuels Weakness
The Indonesian rupiah slipped to 17,306 per U.S. dollar on April 23, 2026, briefly breaching the 17,300 mark. Bank Indonesia blamed rising global uncertainty and stepped up market interventions, while market participants warn the currency could weaken further toward 17,400.
Asia Tightens Grip on Global Wealth as UHNWI Ranks Swell- #Wealth #AssetManagement #AssetFinance
Knight Frank's Wealth Report shows ultra‑high‑net‑worth individuals (UHNWIs) increased by 162,000 between 2021 and 2026, pushing the global total above 713,000. Asia‑Pacific now accounts for nearly 31% of the UHNW population, with China remaining the second‑largest wealth hub. India’s ultra‑wealthy...
Examining Opportunities and Obstacles Facing Central Asia’s Quest to Reach Sea
A Capitol Hill forum hosted by the New Lines Institute highlighted the Silk Seven Plus (S7+) initiative, which envisions a Greater Central Asian economic community linking the Caspian Basin to the Arabian Sea. Experts stressed Afghanistan’s pivotal role as the...
Brazil Beckoned: China Now Has Stock and Bond ‘Connect’ Schemes in These 5 Regions
China has launched its first emerging‑market bond‑connect with Brazil, linking Chinese investors to Brazilian sovereign debt and vice‑versa. The move expands China’s portfolio of offshore "connect" schemes, which already include Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Switzerland, covering both equity...
How a Nation Was Born: Lessons From Four Centuries of Brazilian Growth
A new CEPR paper reconstructs Brazil’s GDP per capita from 1574 to 1920 using 30,000 archival price and wage observations. The study finds Brazil enjoyed relatively high incomes in the late‑1500s, followed by two centuries of near‑zero growth despite commodity...
Commentary: Get Ready for Another Summer of Rage in Asia
Asia’s Gen Z faces a summer of economic strain as the Iran war drives up fuel, food and fertilizer prices, deepening already fragile job prospects. The price shock has sparked strikes in the Philippines, protests in India and Pakistan, and threatens...
Abu Dhabi Deepens Strategic Financial Ties with Italy, Boosting Cross‑Border Investment Banking
A high‑level Abu Dhabi delegation led by Ahmed Jasim Al Zaabi met Italian financial leaders in Milan, cementing a strategic partnership that targets cross‑border capital deployment and advisory work. The talks build on a 2025 UAE‑Italy pact and signal new deal...
IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Slash Emerging Market Growth, South Africa Hit Hardest
The International Monetary Fund warned that an expanding war in the Middle East could push global growth down to about 2% and depress emerging‑market output by roughly twice the rate seen in advanced economies. South Africa and other oil‑importing sub‑Saharan...
Panama’s GDP Slumps 5% After First Quantum’s Cobre Panama Mine Closure
First Quantum Minerals’ 2023 shutdown of the Cobre Panama copper mine erased roughly 5% of Panama’s GDP and 7% of export earnings, costing about $2 billion in lost revenue and eliminating over 40,000 jobs. The loss has driven growth down to...
What’s the Deal with Iran? The Asymmetric Energy Trade Markets Are Missing
The article argues that while the immediate price shock from the Strait of Hormuz disruptions has been absorbed—Brent briefly spiked toward $120—the real trade opportunity lies in a structural asymmetry within energy equities. Two macro scenarios, either prolonged regional tension...
China Advances Tech, Economy Hesitates, Military Stalls
our first ask ian live. a caller asked if china is shifting from second gear to third. technologically, yes. economically, maybe. militarily, not so much. xi still playing the long game. @gzeromedia
What Next For BRICS In An Upside-Down World
The BRICS bloc, formed two decades ago to give emerging economies a louder voice, has now eclipsed the G7 in share of global GDP measured by purchasing power parity. India’s 2026 BRICS presidency centers on "Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation...
Petro to Meet with Delcy
Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet Venezuelan acting president Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas to discuss border security and the prospect of Colombian gas imports from Venezuela. The talks mark the first high‑level contact since the U.S. military ousted former President...
China Shifts Commodity Payments to CNY, Sidelines USD Crisis
It matters greatly, here's why: 1. China can run out of USD, but it can't run out of CNY. 2. China's biggest USD outflow is in commodity imports - est. $1.5-2.0 trillion in commodities, mostly in energy. 3. So every 10% of their...
Double Blockade in Persian Gulf Spikes Global Energy Prices
The situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened. Despite the ceasefire, a double blockade has broken out. It's one big cluster, and the global energy markets are feeling the heat. #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/iV7sYWClso
AFC Plants East Africa Flag with Nairobi Regional Hub
Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and the Kenyan government signed a Host Country Agreement to open AFC’s first regional office in Nairobi. The hub places AFC near a fast‑growing, capital‑rich market and leverages Nairobi’s logistics, finance and technology ecosystem. AFC aims...
Admin Claims New Iran Terror Premium in Oil Prices
From the @DallasFed special edition of its energy survey: “… The administration’s comment about an “Iran terror premium” existing for decades with oil pricing is laughable. But now the administration has created one where it did not exist before…” — anonymous...
China Moves From Sanctions Victim to Export Regulator
"After years...on the receiving end of sanctions, China is now developing its own export control regime. Last year's controls on rare earths only signalled the beginning of what might be a much greater degree of intervention" - from @China_Digital https://t.co/EzBswTk66J
Helix Energy CFO Erik Staffeldt Details Q1 2025 Capital Allocation and Cash Flow Strategy
Helix Energy Solutions Group reported $12 million of free cash flow for Q1 2025 and a $370 million cash balance. CFO Erik Staffeldt used the earnings call to explain a reduced cap‑ex plan, a focus on high‑margin contracts, and a share‑repurchase target tied...
Chinese Export Share Soars as US Tariffs Shift Demand
China’s share of global car sales jumped from 4.5% to 11.4%, and global sales of electronics JUMPED from 20.7% to 26.1%. The scope and scale of Chinese exports is SURGING. Thanks to Trump's tariffs, the world is pivoting away from made in...
Sanctions Spur Dramatic Diversification of Iran’s Trade
Under the sanctions regime, Iran’s trade has diversified dramatically. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below https://t.co/YVEjDdiUTn
Oil Crude Tops $100, Pulling Asian Markets Back From Record Peaks
Brent crude surged to $103 per barrel as Iran seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi, Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Nifty to retreat from fresh record highs. Analysts warned that the oil shock and...
Dollar Climbs, Risk Appetite Sours, Markets Tumble
Dollar has rallied; VIX spiked; equities, gold, emerging markets and Bitcoin have dropped. News of Ghalibaf bowing out of US-Iran negotiations not being taken favorably from a 'risk appetite' perspective
China's Potential Oil Buying Strike Mirrors Missing Supply
Has anyone thought about the possibility that China is on a full buyers strike in oil markets? That would remove (at least in oil barrels) almost the same barrels that we are currently missing
How the Philippines Can Stay Out of Recession
The Philippines’ growth slowed to 4.4% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024, while headline inflation rose to 4.1% in March 2026. The IMF still projects 5.6% growth in 2026, but policymakers must protect purchasing power, speed up public investment, keep...
Middle East Still Holds Trillion in Dollar Assets, Not Switching
Tony Nash is right that the Middle East isn't de dollarizing. Iran wants sanctions relief so it (in some ideal world) can re dollarize and stop selling to China at a discount ... 1/2
China’s New Supply‑Chain Rules Pose Risk to US Companies
AFP: China’s new supply chain regulations could be a “concern” for US firms, @AmCham_China warned. The regulations, released April 7, allow authorities to take measures against foreign companies that “harm China’s industrial and supply chain security.” https://t.co/bmnFKekxT7
EU Loan Throws Ukraine a Lifeline, but More Help Needed for War
The European Union approved a €90 bn (~$97 bn) loan for Ukraine, with half of the funds to be disbursed this year and the balance in 2027. The financing is split between roughly €17 bn per year for health, education and other public...
Russia's War Debt Burden Threatens Banking System
Russia has a financial crisis looming The Kremlin shifted war costs from the sovereign balance sheet into the banking system. Now those loans are going bad. That bill is coming due. https://t.co/PzEExkohJo
Beijing’s Emphasis on Security Weighing on US Firms’ Optimism: AmCham China
American firms in China applaud regulatory refinements and greater openness, yet persistent national‑security priorities curb optimism. AmCham China's 2026 white paper highlights incremental progress on foreign investment rules and cross‑border data governance, but warns that broad, evolving security definitions complicate...
Hainan Was China’s Shopping Paradise. For Beijing That’s No Longer Enough.
Hainan, once celebrated as China’s premier duty‑free shopping destination, saw a sharp 29.3% drop in duty‑free spending in 2024. In response, Beijing announced a strategic pivot, turning the island into a testbed for broader tax incentives, tariff‑free access, and a...
RBI Sees Growth, Inflation Risks From Escalating US-Iran War
The Reserve Bank of India warned in its April 2026 bulletin that the escalating US‑Iran war poses a major downside risk to the global and domestic economy. Prolonged conflict could raise energy and input costs, disrupt trade flows and trigger...
How Global Imbalances Ripple Across Nations
Adam Tooze has a very good new Substack article on global imbalances. I discuss below where I (mostly) agree and disagree (more in emphasis than in substance), focusing especially on how imbalances are transmitted from country to country. @adam_tooze https://t.co/n6KhuJ5NMS
Hormuz Turns Trade Weaponization Frontline, Threatening Maritime Security
Hormuz becomes frontline in ‘weaponisation of trade’. Is there currently maritime security and safety? https://t.co/NoAhibd8ud
Why Israel’s Economy Is Thriving Now
Israel’s shekel has surged to below three per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since the mid‑1990s, reflecting heightened investor confidence amid regional conflict. The country’s defense and high‑tech sectors have attracted capital inflows after recent operations showcased Israeli weaponry....
West Asia Conflict, Supply Chain Disruptions May Create Challenges to Economy: RBI Bulletin
The Reserve Bank of India’s April bulletin warns that the ongoing West Asia conflict and related supply‑chain disruptions could pressure India’s economy through higher energy costs, rising input prices, and trade‑flow disturbances. While domestic activity remains broadly resilient, the bulletin...
ASX 200 Slides ~0.6% as Middle East Tensions and Profit Warnings Hit Traders
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped roughly 0.6% to 8,777.80 on Thursday, pressured by renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions and profit warnings that rattled Australia’s big four banks. The move underscores how geopolitical risk and earnings uncertainty are shaping short‑term trading opportunities...
Chinese Yuan Falls to 6.865 per Dollar, Highlighting Currency Pressure
China's central parity rate weakened 15 pips to 6.865 per U.S. dollar on Thursday, marking the latest slide in the yuan amid widening global interest‑rate gaps. The move underscores growing external headwinds and the People's Bank of China's limited room...
Iran Seizes Ships in Hormuz, Driving Oil to $104 and Gold Below $4,700
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two merchant ships and fired on three others in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such seizure in the current conflict. The escalation lifted Brent crude to $103.60 a barrel and pushed gold under $4,700...
US Navy Seizes Another Iranian Oil Tanker—After Iran Said It Banked First Tolls From Ships Crossing Hormuz
The U.S. Navy seized the stateless tanker M/T Majestic X in the Indian Ocean, accusing it of transporting Iranian oil. Iran announced that the first tranche of tolls collected from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has been deposited into its...