Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
India’s Growth Outlook Holds Steady Amid Iran War, Weak Monsoon and Reform Push
India’s growth trajectory remains resilient despite a weaker-than‑expected monsoon, soaring oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and tightening global financing. The RBI kept policy rates unchanged while analysts trimmed FY27 GDP forecasts to 5.9%‑6.7%, still close to the central bank’s 6.9% target, as policymakers balance inflation, capital flows and structural reforms.
France Reaffirms Efforts To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz
French President Emmanuel Macron announced a push to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days and weeks, emphasizing freedom of navigation under international law. He warned that panic over geopolitical uncertainty could itself trigger shortages. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne...
Petrodollar Debate Ignoring Pre‑Crisis Global Surplus Figures
There is something about the petrodollar debate that seems to make its participant believe it can be conducted in the absence of solid numbers -- A reminder, prior to the crisis in the Strait, the global surplus as in Asia (manufacturing...
India Mulls Options On Iran Port Stake Before Sanctions Kick In
India is weighing options for its $120 million stake in Iran’s Chabahar port as the U.S. sanctions waiver expires on April 26. Officials are considering a temporary transfer of the stake to an Iranian entity while keeping the investment alive, pending talks...
China Unveils $233 Billion Domestic Demand Plan to Sustain Growth
Beijing announced a dedicated 2026‑2030 action plan to expand domestic demand, backed by ultra‑long treasury bonds and a consumer‑goods trade‑in scheme that drove new‑car sales above 1.6 trillion yuan ($233 billion) in 2025. The move signals a structural shift in China’s growth...
UAE GDP Projection Corrects on Conflict
The May 2026 MEED report revises the UAE’s GDP forecast downward as regional conflict adds pressure, yet the projects sector continues to post year‑to‑date momentum. The economy is absorbing shocks across multiple fronts, with banks staying stable, ADNOC expanding upstream and...
IMF Lifts 2026 Growth Forecast Amid Hormuz Worries
If Hormuz blockade continues, all would change. But perspective matters. See the IMF global economic growth forecast: Published in Apr 2025: 3.0% (for 2026) Published in Apr 2026: 3.1% (for 2026) Current IMF 2026 forecast is **higher** than its estimate published a year...
George Answers Your Questions: Japan, Australia and a New Regional Order
Japan’s lack of domestic critical industrial minerals is driving a strategic pivot toward Australia’s abundant resource base. The two nations are deepening security and economic ties, positioning Australia as a primary supplier of rare earths, lithium, and other essential inputs...
Investors Who Think It’s Time to Move on From the Iran War Should Look at These Numbers
Wall Street is betting that the Iran‑U.S. conflict may be winding down, propelling the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh highs while the Dow lags 1.9% behind its peak. Despite a 45% surge in Brent and a 41% rise in WTI...
Finland Sparks EU Debate on China‑Russia‑North Korea Alliance
I think Finland is starting the ‘debate’ in EU if EU really want to be on team China+Russia+NorthKorea
US Shock 2.0: Iran War Drives Market Disruption
May Monthly drops. Much talk about China 2.0 shock, but the main disruptive force is not emanating from Beijing now. US shock 1.0 were the tariffs and US shock 2.0 is the war on Iran. May is...
Nigeria–South Africa Partnership Critical to Africa’s Integration Agenda
Stakeholders at the second Economic Diplomacy Roundtable, co‑hosted by the South African High Commission and MTN, highlighted the strategic need to deepen Nigeria‑South Africa ties as a catalyst for continental integration. MTN showcased its massive footprint—307 million subscribers and over 175,000 km...
U.S. Envoys Witkoff, Kushner Fly to Pakistan for Iran Talks Amid Hormuz Tension
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Islamabad for a fresh round of mediated talks with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. The White House hopes the indirect negotiations will revive a stalled cease‑fire and ease the Strait of Hormuz...
Rupee Slips to 93 per Dollar as RBI Steps up FX Interventions Amid Modest Reserve Gains
The Indian rupee weakened to a 92.2‑93.5 band against the dollar after breaching 95 earlier this week, even as the Reserve Bank of India reported a modest rise in foreign‑exchange reserves. RBI officials intensified spot‑market dollar sales and tightened liquidity...
Iran-Israel Conflict Pushes Brent Above $100, Stoking Global Inflation Fears
The Iran-Israel war has lifted Brent crude to $105‑$106 a barrel, a 44%‑55% jump since the conflict began, prompting economists to warn of heightened inflation and a possible drag on global growth through 2026. The shock stems from a near‑closure...
Russia’s Economic, Civil And Political Challenges During The Ukraine War
Russian officials warned that the war‑driven economy is sliding toward recession, with the World Bank forecasting just 1% GDP growth in 2026. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina highlighted soaring production costs, persistent inflation, and severe labor shortages that now affect...
The China 5: Iran Shock, Energy Resilience, and Russia’s Dependence
Russia’s war economy is under pressure, forcing the Kremlin to sell 21.8 tons of gold in Q1 at steep discounts, largely to buyers linked to China. Meanwhile, China’s energy sector shows resilience, with renewables accounting for 70% of new power capacity...
China’s Next Market Winners: Reading the Signals From the 15th Five-Year Plan
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026‑2030) shifts focus from research to the large‑scale deployment of advanced technologies. It earmarks AI, semiconductors, robotics, 6G, green hydrogen and bio‑manufacturing as priority sectors, coupling subsidies with strict performance targets. The policy reinforces self‑reliance, offering...
US Envoys Travel to Pakistan for Peace Talks; Iran Says Direct Negotiations Not Planned
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Islamabad to convey Tehran’s position on restarting US‑Iran peace talks, while the United States dispatched special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan. Iran’s foreign ministry stressed there will be no direct...
Libya's Oil Boom and Currency Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Libya’s oil production JUMPED from roughly 400 thousand barrels a day in March to 1.43 million barrels a day in April. In the same time frame, the Libyan dinar has APPRECIATED by over 17% vs. the USD. LIBYA = BIG WINNERS OF...
India Can Be a Non-AI Hedge as Global Capital Seeks Diversification Says Mirae Asset's Swarup Mohanty
Mirae Asset’s CEO Swarup Mohanty says India can serve as a “non‑AI hedge” for global portfolios once AI‑centric capital peaks. He notes that Indian IT firms, traditionally cash‑flow engines, are under pressure as investors chase pure‑play AI stocks, but their...
Gulf Oil Output Can Rebound in Months After Hormuz Reopens: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs research says Gulf crude output could rebound within months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, though full pre‑war levels may take longer. The conflict cut Gulf production by 14.5 mbd, a 57 % drop. Recovery will depend on tanker availability,...
China’s Commodity Stockpiles, Not Strategy, Cushioned Iran War Impact
1/5 It's true that China was able to withstand the effects of the Iran war better than many other countries because it had stockpiled commodities. But it is a little silly, perhaps even a little orientalist, to say that it did...
China PE Pivots to Hard Tech, Old Sectors Collapse
Yicai: "China’s private equity market is showing a sharp split. “Hard tech” industries such as robotics and advanced materials are attracting most of the capital, while previously popular areas such as second-hand e-commerce and apparel have seen funding drop by...
US Imposes Sanctions on Chinese ‘Teapot’ Refinery for Buying Iranian Oil
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, a Chinese "teapot" plant, for buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil. The move also targeted roughly 40 vessels and shipping firms linked to Iran’s shadow fleet. China, which accounts for...
Xi Calls Laos Key Priority in China’s Neighborhood Diplomacy
Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted Laos as a top priority in Beijing’s neighborhood diplomacy, marking the 65th anniversary of diplomatic ties. He emphasized a strategic, long‑term partnership rooted in shared socialist values and mutual development goals. The statement signals likely...
Separation Between Economics & Strategy that Was Taken for Granted Has Collapsed in 21stCentury
The Geoeconomic Monograph Series (G‑SAGE) webinar highlighted how economics and strategy are now inseparable in the 21st century, as multilateral trade rules fray and unilateral tariffs rise. Speakers examined Africa’s AfCFTA, South Asia’s BBIN power grid, and Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance as...
2025: China's Surplus Increasingly Recycled Through State Banks
100% wrong substantively. The key change in 2025 is that a rising share of China's surplus is being recycled through the state banks. They aren't the PBOC but they aren't exactly private either 1/2 https://t.co/VGghVlVzkz
India Calls for Global 6G Leadership at COAI Summit, Union Minister Says
Union Minister Chandra Sekhar Pemmasani told the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) Digicom Summit that India must take a leading role in drafting global 6G standards. The appeal underscores New Delhi’s ambition to influence the next generation of wireless...
Offshore Yuan Slips Past 6.83 per Dollar, Marking First Weekly Drop in Three Weeks
The offshore yuan weakened past 6.83 per dollar on Friday, triggering its first weekly decline in three weeks. The slide reflects a firmer U.S. dollar and fresh volatility from U.S. military action in the Strait of Hormuz, while analysts weigh...
Chinese Export Prices Jump, Fueling Fresh Global Inflation Fears
Chinese exporters raised prices on more than a dozen product categories in March, with some items like syringes up 20%. The surge, driven by oil‑linked input costs from the Iran war, reverses three years of export‑price deflation and threatens to...
India's Sensex Drops 2,600 Points Over Three Sessions as Oil Prices Surge
The BSE Sensex shed more than 2,600 points across three trading sessions, while the NSE Nifty fell below the 24,000 mark, as Brent crude surged to $107 per barrel. Geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran and a weakening...
BlackRock’s Spring 2026 Investment Directions Calls for AI‑Heavy, Large‑Cap Equity Tilt
BlackRock released its Spring 2026 Investment Directions, recommending a stronger bias toward AI‑focused large‑cap equities, emerging‑market stocks and a diversified basket of alternatives. The commentary comes as oil supply shocks and Middle‑East tensions keep volatility high, prompting the firm to...
Schwab’s SCHE ETF Lures Investors with 0.07% Fees and 2.7% Yield
Schwab’s Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE) is gaining traction after analysts highlighted its ultra‑low 0.07% expense ratio and 2.7% distribution yield, making it the cheapest high‑yield EM fund. The ETF’s 2,200‑plus holdings and sector tilt toward technology and finance position...
Euro Rises to $1.17 as US‑Iran Talks Revive Risk Appetite
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1715, up 0.27%, after news that President Donald Trump dispatched envoys to Pakistan for renewed US‑Iran talks. The move eased the U.S. dollar index and revived risk‑on sentiment in currency markets.
Tokyo and Seoul Stocks Reach Record Peaks as Manila Jeepney Drivers Strike Over Fuel Costs
Tokyo and Seoul stock exchanges surged to record levels this week, driven by AI‑related earnings and higher oil prices, while Manila’s jeepney drivers launched a strike last month over soaring fuel costs. Economists warn the divergent trends could deepen stagflation...
19‑Year‑Old Berkeley Dropout Raises $7.3 M to Launch Africa’s First Super‑App From Lagos
Aubrey Niederhoffer, a 19‑year‑old former UC Berkeley sophomore, secured a $7.3 million seed round to fund Swoop, a Lagos‑based startup aiming to become Africa’s first super‑app. Backed by a mix of Silicon Valley and Africa‑focused investors, Swoop launched its food‑delivery service...
Iran’s New Ocean Imperium
The article links the escalating Iran‑U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a centuries‑old debate over “freedom of the seas.” It argues that the legal doctrine, famously codified by Hugo Grotius in *Mare Liberum*, was originally crafted to justify Dutch...
Why Wealthy Gulf Families Are Suddenly Buying Turkish Citizenship at $400K
In early 2026 Gulf real‑estate volumes plunged 36%, shedding roughly $6 billion as geopolitical tensions spooked wealthy families. The downturn redirected capital toward Turkey’s citizenship‑by‑investment program, which now requires a $400,000 property purchase held for three years. Turkey processes applications in...
EU Breaks Deadlock on Russian Sanctions but Defers Maritime Services Ban
The European Council finally broke a weeks‑long deadlock and approved its 20th sanction package on Russia, coupling it with a €90 billion ($105.5 billion) loan to Ukraine. The measures add 46 vessels to the sanctions list, bringing the total to 632, and...
Airlines Face Headwinds as Iran War Leads to Rising Fuel Costs
The U.S. and Israel war against Iran has choked the Strait of Hormuz, sending jet‑fuel prices soaring worldwide. In Europe, prices have roughly doubled, prompting Lufthansa to cancel 20,000 flights through the fall, while KLM and Scandinavian carriers trim schedules....
Salmon Secures $100 Million Equity‑Debt Deal to Scale Digital Credit in Philippines
Manila‑based fintech Salmon raised $60 million in equity and $40 million in debt to broaden its digital credit platform for underbanked Filipinos. The dual‑track financing, led by investors such as Spice Expeditions and a Nordic bond issuance, underscores growing cross‑border capital flows...
Vietnam’s VN Index Beats FTSE 100 YTD, FTSE Russell Upgrade Sparks $5‑6 Bn Inflow
Vietnam’s VN index has outpaced the UK’s FTSE 100 in year‑to‑date returns, buoyed by a FTSE Russell upgrade from frontier to secondary emerging market. Analysts expect the move to channel $5‑6 bn of foreign money into a market valued at roughly...
Iran Conflict Cuts Oil, Boosts US Petrochemical Edge
The global petrochemical system is built on oil, and the Iran war just pulled a massive chunk of that supply off the table. With roughly 13 million barrels per day knocked offline, countries that rely on refining crude into naphtha...
UAE USD Swap Lines May Fund China Investments
So…will the USD swap lines Bessent is going to give UAE going to finance the UAE’s newly-signed investments in China? Or are the USD swap lines so UAE doesn’t have to sell USTs to make these investments in China? Or do the...
Forex Reserves Rise to $703 Billion; Rupee Slips 14 Paise
India's foreign exchange reserves jumped $2.3 billion to $703 billion in the week ending April 17, driven by higher foreign‑currency assets and a revaluation of dollar holdings. The rupee slipped 14 paise, closing at 94.25 per dollar, as foreign investors and private oil firms...
Europeans Must Recognize US, China and Russia Are ‘Dead Against’ Us, Says Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the United States, China and Russia are now "dead against" Europe, urging EU members to defend their own interests and act with greater self‑confidence. He added that the strain in transatlantic relations will likely...
US Slaps 123% Anti-Dumping Duty on Indian Solar Imports
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary anti‑dumping duty of 123.04% on solar cells and modules imported from India. The duty, added to existing countervailing tariffs of over 125%, pushes the total tariff burden above 200%, effectively sidelining Indian...
Struggling to Decode Fog of War
The Strait of Hormuz crisis entered a new, volatile phase as Iran's IRGC seized two European tankers, pushing Brent crude above $106 per barrel. The IMF trimmed its global growth forecast to 3.1% and lifted inflation expectations to 4.4%, underscoring...
Chinese Tariffs Spurred Crucial Foreign Tech Investment
Correct Chinese tariffs were instrumental in creating the incentives for European, US and Japanese investment in China back when China needed foreign investment for technology and know how transfer