Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Iraqi Dinar Hits 155,250 per $100 Amid Political Deadlock
Traders pushed the Iraqi dinar to 155,250 IQD per $100 on the parallel market, a record high driven by a stalled prime‑ministerial appointment and regional supply shocks. The surge widens the gap with the Central Bank’s official rate of 130,000 IQD, underscoring mounting currency risk in Baghdad.
USA Rare Earth Commits $2.8 B to Brazil’s Serra Verde, Boosting U.S. Rare‑Earth Supply Chain
USA Rare Earth (USAR) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group for $2.8 billion, combining $300 million in cash and 126.85 million newly issued shares. The deal secures the Pela Ema mine, the only non‑Asian source capable of producing all...
The Hidden Chokepoints Threatening the Global Economy
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores how tightly concentrated supply routes can destabilize the global economy. Repeated disruptions—from COVID‑19 PPE shortages to current fertilizer and sulfur scarcities—reveal that policymakers still lack a clear map of critical chokepoints....
Oil Prices Continue to Rise Amid the US-Iran Stalemate; Iran Awaits US Blockade Removal
Oil prices kept climbing as the US‑Iran deadlock deepened, with crude trading above the $93 per barrel resistance. Iran signaled it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the US lifts its maritime blockade, while President Trump insists on a...
The MATCH Act: America’s New Plan to Break Chinese AI
The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the MATCH Act, targeting maintenance, updates and technical support for Chinese semiconductor fabs. By cutting after‑sale services, the law aims to erode chip yields and raise operating costs in China’s AI supply chain....
The Hormuz Hit to Helium
The Iran‑UAE conflict has disrupted helium supplies, as Qatar halted production at its Ras Laffan LNG plant and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Spot helium prices have doubled after a 14% cut in Qatari exports, tightening a market already dependent on...
China Blocks Foreign Takeover of Manus Project
Whoa Office of the Working Mechanism for Security Review of Foreign Investment (NDRC) Issues a Security Review Decision on the Foreign Acquisition of the Manus Project The Office of the Working Mechanism for Security Review of Foreign Investment (NDRC), in accordance with...
China’s Sovereign Debt to Debut in SE Asia’s Largest Economy
China and Indonesia have signed a reciprocal sovereign bond agreement allowing China to issue yuan‑denominated bonds in Indonesia’s domestic market and Indonesia to sell rupiah‑denominated bonds in China. The deal marks the first institutionalized opening between two of Asia’s largest...
Govt Aims for 5.7 Percent GDP Growth in Second Quarter
Indonesia’s government announced a target of 5.7% GDP growth for the second quarter, aiming to exceed the usual 5% pace despite external headwinds from the Middle East conflict. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the administration will "push" the economy...
China’s Industrial Profits Surge 15.5% on Chips, Commodities
Xinhua: "Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 15.5% year on year during the January-March period, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the growth posted in the first two months of the year." The rise was driven by sectors that specialize...
Ghana’s Fuel Payment Strategy Works for Now: How to Fix Longer Term Problems
In 2023 Ghana launched a gold‑for‑oil payment scheme, using domestically mined gold instead of scarce US dollars to settle petroleum imports. The arrangement eased pressure on the cedi, helped curb fuel‑price inflation to roughly 3‑4% by early 2026, and lowered...
AI Boom Drowns Out War Fears to Fuel Asia’s Great Market Divide
Asian equity markets are splitting along a north‑south divide as AI‑driven chipmakers lift South Korea, Taiwan and Japan while higher oil prices depress India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The AI boom has propelled the Kospi and Taiex to record highs,...
Zero Tariffs, Same Structure: Africa Must Change How It Trades with China
In 2025 Africa‑China trade reached a record $348 bn, with Chinese exports to the continent at $225 bn and African exports to China at $123 bn. From 1 May 2026 China will apply zero tariffs on imports from all 53 African nations, a rare opening...
What Has Made Poland so Successful?
Poland has become Europe’s top growth story, expanding its economy seventeen‑fold from $66 billion in 1990 to about $1.1 trillion in 2026. The country now outsizes 14 Eastern European economies combined and rivals Japan on a per‑capita basis. Key drivers include deep...
Mapping the Fallout: Which Indian Sectors Face Risks From the West Asia War?
The West Asia war has ignited the world’s biggest energy crisis, pushing crude oil to about $100 a barrel and disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. In India, the shock has slashed fertilizer output by 24.6% YoY and driven up airline...
Partner Insight: Rising Populism: What Shifting Politics Could Mean for Markets and Portfolios
Populism is now a persistent force in global politics, shaping fiscal and monetary policies that reverberate through bond and equity markets. Populist governments tend to lower short‑term rates while pushing long‑term yields higher, creating a steepening yield curve that reflects...
Bangladesh Risks New Inflation Surge by Printing Money
Bangladesh’s central bank injected roughly US$1.65 billion of high‑powered money in February, pushing reserve‑money growth to 13.35% year‑on‑year—more than double the pace a year earlier. The expansion comes as the new government seeks to fund welfare programmes amid a weak fiscal...
Rwanda’s Stretch Cloud Takes On AWS and Azure with $2.5M Valuation
Stretch Cloud, a Rwanda‑based cloud provider founded by Jean‑Luc Sauvé, launched with roughly $1,700 in seed capital and is now valued at about $2.5 million. The startup aims to capture a share of Africa’s rapidly expanding digital economy, which the International...
Brazil, India Boost Critical Minerals Partnership for Supply Resilience
Brazil and India deepen critical minerals and rare earths cooperation to build resilient supply chains. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/brazil-india-critical-minerals-deal.html
BYD's Patent Surge Powers China to Lead Car Exports
BYD, the company Elon Musk laughed at in 2011, is filing 52 patents per day, on average. Thanks to BYD, China now exports more cars than U.S. and Japan combined. https://t.co/v5sRfTeDFH
ET Awards: Sitharaman Flags AI Threat and Global Risks, Says Reforms on the Way to Support India Inc Growth
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a new reform package aimed at reducing regulatory compliance burdens for Indian businesses, citing the need to cushion the impact of the West Asia conflict and rising commodity prices. She highlighted India’s strong domestic consumption as a...
Iran Offers Blockade Lift, Strait Reopen, Nuclear Talks Delayed
According to @Axios, Iran has given the US a new proposal for reaching a deal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade first, and postponing nuclear negotiations for a later stage. https://t.co/4oIkEaf0lH
IMF Warns Iran War Could Trim Africa’s Growth to 4.3% and Spark Inflation Surge
The International Monetary Fund warned that the ongoing Iran war will shave 0.3 percentage points off its 2026 sub‑Saharan Africa growth forecast, push median inflation to 5% and widen current‑account deficits. The IMF says higher commodity prices, capital flight and...
Chinese A‑share ETFs Shed HK$701 Bn in a Week as Investors Retreat
Chinese A‑share ETFs experienced net outflows of HK$701.92 bn (about $90 bn) in the week of April 20‑24, pulling the total market size down to HK$5.14 trn. The pull‑back hit broad‑based stock ETFs hardest, with the four largest managers each losing over HK$100 bn.
Brazil’s Central Bank Says Stablecoins Made Up $6.8 B of $6.9 B Crypto Purchases in Q1 2026
The Central Bank of Brazil disclosed that stablecoins represented $6.8 billion of the $6.9 billion total crypto purchases in the first quarter of 2026, or more than 98% of the market. The data underscores Brazil’s surge to the fifth‑largest crypto market worldwide...
Analysis-Under Cover of Trade Truce with Trump, China Expands Economic Pressure Toolkit
In October 2025 President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed a trade truce that promised to lift Chinese rare‑earth export controls and end retaliation against U.S. firms. Since then Beijing has quietly built a broader economic‑pressure toolkit, enacting laws that...
Iran’s FM Said Had Discussion with Oman on Ways to Ensure Safe Transit in Hormuz Strait
Iran’s foreign minister met with his Omani counterpart to discuss mechanisms for securing safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Both officials emphasized the need for coordinated measures that protect commercial vessels while reducing the risk of accidental incidents. The...
Daniel Gros on What China Can Learn From the Euro as It Works Towards a Global Yuan
Daniel Gros, director at Bocconi’s Institute for European Policymaking, argues that the euro’s modest international role highlights the United States dollar’s unrivaled advantage: a deep, open financial market and a powerful lock‑in effect. He notes that the yuan’s push for...
Record-Setting Momentum Rally Is Drawing Doubters
April’s risk‑asset rally has surged to near‑record levels, with the S&P 500 climbing almost 10% since the end of March—its strongest monthly gain since late 2020. The rally persisted despite stalled US‑Iran peace talks, lingering inflation signals, and a central‑bank succession drama...
Chile's Sulphuric Acid Shortage Threatens 20% of Copper Output
Chile's copper sector faces a tightening sulphuric acid supply, jeopardising the solvent extraction‑electrowinning process that delivers roughly one‑fifth of national output. The shortage, driven by import dependence and shipping disruptions, forces miners to seek new sources and invest in recycling...
Global Fossil‑Fuel Subsidies Deepen Africa’s Energy Vulnerability
The International Institute for Sustainable Development reports that the world’s nine biggest fossil‑fuel importers spent $313.6 bn on subsidies in 2024, a level that is intensifying price volatility and inflation in African economies such as Ghana. Analysts warn the imbalance between...
Thai FinTech Funding Slashes 60% as Investors Bet on Late‑Stage Winners
Venture capital in Thailand has cut the number of fintech deals by 60% over the past nine months, but the average size of late‑stage rounds has risen 40%. Investors are now concentrating capital on a handful of proven companies, forcing...
India Must Identify Key Chokepoints, Mitigate Both Supply & Price Risks: EAC-PM Chairman S Mahendra Dev
India’s Economic Advisory Council chair S Mahendra Dev warned that the West Asia war exposes critical supply‑chain vulnerabilities across energy, food, fertilizers, metals and minerals. He urged the government to map these chokepoints, expand strategic petroleum reserves and commodity stockpiles, and diversify...
Is China Selling US Treasuries? AI View, Consensus View, the Right View
China’s official reserve portfolio shows a continued pullback from U.S. Treasuries, with holdings now around $694 billion—the lowest level since 2008. The sell‑off is driven by a mix of reserve diversification, yuan‑support policies, and geopolitical risk concerns, while much of the...
Resilience Is a Critical Link in West Africa’s Digital Economy
At the 2026 International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit, leaders highlighted that resilience has become an economic imperative for West Africa’s $800 billion‑plus economy. A March 2024 multi‑cable outage slashed internet traffic by over 50%, exposing the fragility of a digital sector...
Churn in Horn of Africa Political Alliances
The Horn of Africa’s political turbulence is reshaping the Bab el‑Mandeb corridor, now handling over half of Saudi oil after the Strait of Hormuz blockage. The United Arab Emirates’ pullout has shuttered several Red Sea bases, eroding maritime surveillance. Meanwhile, Washington...
Harvard Economist Ken Rogoff: Iran, Oil & the Global Economy at Risk
Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff discussed the escalating war in Iran and its ripple effects on oil, gasoline, and fertilizer markets. He highlighted the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz and warned that energy price...
Chinese EV Giant Sends a Bold Message Straight to the US
At the Beijing Auto Show BYD, now the world’s largest EV maker, declared it can thrive without the U.S. market, underscoring a rapid overseas expansion and new flash‑charging battery technology. European sales surged 270% in 2025 and the firm sold...
Hyundai Launches IONIQ V, Puts $1.1B Into China EV Supply Chain
Hyundai Motor unveiled the all‑new IONIQ V at Auto China 2026 and announced an 8 billion‑yuan ($1.1 billion) investment in its Beijing Hyundai JV. The move anchors a five‑year plan for 20 new EV models and a goal of 500,000 units sold...
IMF Urges Asian Economies to Diversify Energy Supplies as Oil Spikes 55% Post‑Iran War
IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas told reporters on April 14 that Asian economies need to broaden energy sources after the Iran‑Israel conflict sent Brent crude up more than 55% to $120 a barrel. The shock, which cut global oil supply by 12 million bpd...
SLB Reports 10% Revenue Drop as Middle East Turmoil Hits Earnings, While Digital Push Fuels Growth
SLB (formerly Schlumberger) posted a 10.5% sequential revenue decline, driven by Middle East disruptions, while its digital division grew 9% to $640 million. Management flagged a $0.06‑$0.08 EPS headwind from the region and confirmed a $451 million share‑repurchase program.
IMF Spring Meetings Spotlight Middle East Conflict, Climate Resilience for Low‑Income Nations
At the IMF’s April 13‑17 Spring Meetings, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war in the Middle East is a global shock that is driving higher energy prices and inflation, especially for low‑income and climate‑vulnerable countries. The Fund announced...
Iran’s Araghchi Lands in Pakistan; Trump Says Tehran Must Call First
Iran reopened Imam Khomeini International Airport, launching flights to Istanbul and Muscat, signaling a tentative return to normalcy after weeks of conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are heading to Pakistan for high‑stakes talks aimed at ending...
India Likely to Close FY26 with Gross FDI of More than $90 Billion, Says CEA Nageswaran
India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran projects gross foreign direct investment (FDI) to top $90 billion in FY 2025‑26, roughly 2% of the country’s GDP. The April‑February period already recorded $88.3 billion in gross inflows, an 18.1% jump year‑over‑year, and net FDI rose to...
Benefits of China’s Non-Reactive Strategic Posturing in the Middle East War and Emerging Concerns
China’s largely non‑reactive stance in the Middle East war has allowed Beijing to study U.S. and Israeli military tactics while keeping its own forces focused on the Indo‑Pacific. The conflict highlighted the effectiveness of low‑cost drones and short‑range missiles, exposing...
Market Prices Short-Term Risk, Tail Risk Remains Illiquid
In this very poorly written post, @radigancarter is saying that markets are under-weighting Iran tail risk Frankly, I get tired of people saying the market is wrong The market is always right for what the market does--it prices short term risk There's no...
Chinese State Banks Do More Than Just FX Intermediation
. @GagnonMacro asked a good question, one that others at Peterson have also raised (and I know from other sources that it can also be traced back to the PBOC), namely aren't the Chinee state banks just intermediating domestic fx...
Syrian Investors Leverage Trump Brand to Sidestep Sanctions
To unlock deals and have sanctions removed, Syrian investors pitched projects tied to the Trump brand name. CORRUPTION AT ITS FINEST. OLD SYRIAN HABITS DIE HARD. https://t.co/Ig4W0PEfSn
Iranian Rial Gains 8% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 8% vs. the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO NOT REPORT ON THIS IMPORTANT STATISTIC. https://t.co/U7feV9L31L
China's Fertility Decline Predated, OCP Intensified Coercive Measures
“Fertility in China was already falling sharply before the One-Child Policy…The OCP accelerated and institutionalized a trend…already underway, but it also added enormous coercive machinery on top of it, including forced sterilizations and abortions.” https://t.co/eeyX4ZGmwq