Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Know What's Happening in Emerging Markets
Taiwan Secures New LNG Supply Commitments Amid Middle‑East Tensions
Taiwan’s economy minister said a major LNG‑producing country has pledged to meet the island’s natural‑gas needs and will provide extra cargoes on request. The agreement with the United States adds a delivery of 1.2 million tonnes of LNG each year, diversifying Taiwan’s import mix as the Iran war threatens Middle‑East supplies.
East African economies are bracing for fallout from the escalating Gulf conflict after US and Israel attacks on Iran. Brent crude surged past $84 a barrel, pushing fuel costs and inflation higher across the region. Economists warn that higher import prices, supply‑chain disruptions and a sharp drop in Gulf‑based remittances could stall infrastructure projects in Tanzania and Uganda and threaten millions of migrant workers. Governments are tapping strategic reserves and exploring alternative supply routes, but short‑term pressures are expected through mid‑2026.
The Iran‑Israel conflict has forced Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar to divert attention and resources after Iranian missile reprisals, weakening their mediation role in Sudan’s three‑year war. Analysts argue this shift could either spark renewed diplomatic pressure to end...
Foreign institutional investors dumped nearly $2 billion from Indian equities in March, driven by heightened Middle‑East tensions and Brent crude trading above $90 a barrel. The outflows, amounting to roughly Rs 21,829 crore, pushed the Nifty 50 down about 6% year‑to‑date and erased Rs 19 lakh crore...
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
MSCI stock index gains have halved to a 7% year‑to‑date increase, while JP Morgan’s local and hard‑currency corporate and sovereign bonds are up about 1% YTD. The escalating Israel‑US versus Iran war is drawing parallels to the Russia‑Ukraine conflict’s global market...
PHOTO OF THE DAY: China is still getting (some of) its oil. Nine days into the war, Iran continues loading oil supertankers from Kharg Island. Tehran has sent some of them across the Strait of Hormuz into the high seas wihthout any...
The US Maritime Administration (@DOTMARAD) put out at the begining of the war 2 "alerts" advising vessles to "keep clear" of the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, it cancelled the alerts (one alert was due to expire automatically, but the other was...
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. departs for a working visit to New York on March 8, where he will address the United Nations General Assembly and the Commission on the Status of Women. He will call for peace in the Middle East,...
A fire erupted at Bahrain's Sitra refinery after an Iranian missile strike, but the blaze was fully contained with no reported injuries and the plant remains operational. The incident comes as the refinery, part of a $7 bn Bapco Modernisation Programme,...
UAE utility giants Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and Etihad Water & Electricity confirmed that water and electricity services remain fully operational despite recent missile attacks in the region. Both firms activated risk‑management frameworks and precautionary procedures to safeguard...
Emerging‑market (EM) bonds are delivering roughly double the yield of developed‑market debt while their volatility has fallen below that of traditional safe‑haven assets. The structural advantage stems from EM governments carrying about half the debt‑to‑GDP ratios of their developed counterparts,...
Pakistan is turning to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea corridor to import crude after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz following recent U.S.–Israeli strikes. The disruption threatens Pakistan’s already tight fuel supply, prompting the government to adopt aggressive conservation policies,...
India announced a subsidy for a $360 million back‑end semiconductor assembly plant being built by Kaynes in partnership with Japan’s Mitsui & Co. and Aoi Electronics. The government support aims to lower capital costs and accelerate the plant’s commissioning, targeted for later this...
Indo‑US trade talks have been reset after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, activating the joint statement’s review clause. Both governments now have a three‑to‑four‑month window to reassess the proposed preferential...
George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures provides his first assessment of the recent attack on Iran, describing the immediate strategic context and the organization’s internal response. He explains that Geopolitical Futures has moved to a “Red Alert” posture, mirroring past crisis...
India’s Union Shipping, Ports and Waterways Ministry issued a standard operating procedure to mitigate disruptions from the West Asia crisis. The SOP authorises ports to consider waiving or reducing charges such as vessel fees and storage rent on a case‑by‑case...
China’s export sector remains robust, buoyed by deep‑seated cost advantages and policy support, while domestic demand continues to falter. Container freight rates edged higher despite Iran‑related shipping risks, and real‑estate prices and sales plunged 27% year‑on‑year. The economy is increasingly...
As a global forecaster, I’ve been closely watching the escalation dynamics around the Iran–Israel war. Subscribers to my research have already been tracking this trajectory, but for those following events more broadly, here are my key predictions for how this conflict...
India's Commerce Ministry announced that the full Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) benefits will be reinstated from April 1, 2026, after a temporary 50% reduction that lasted until March 31. The scheme, which refunds 0.3%‑3.9% of...
Gold prices have surged 47.6% since August 2025, reaching $5,092 per ounce, as central banks shift from Treasury securities to gold. The United States and Germany now report gold comprising over 80% of their reserve portfolios, with Italy and India also...
Iran’s low‑cost, $20,000 drones are emerging as a more disruptive strategic weapon than its nuclear program, targeting the Gulf’s diversified economic assets. The drone campaign threatens energy, logistics, tourism, real‑estate and financial sectors, raising the risk of capital flight and...
Israeli forces attempted a landing operation near the Lebanon‑Syria border, sparking ground clashes with Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley town of Nabi Chit. Israeli air raids killed at least 16 civilians and wounded 35, marking the deepest incursion since November 2024....
Japan’s Defense Ministry is studying a major upgrade of Iwo Jima, including runway extension, port enhancements and a floating pier, to host JSDF fighter jets permanently. The move seeks to close a Pacific‑side surveillance gap and provide a redundant air hub...
An independent Levada Center poll shows Russian public support for continuing the war in Ukraine has fallen to just 24%, the lowest level since the conflict began. Meanwhile, 67% now favor peace negotiations, up six points from the previous month,...
Japan has asked the United States to exclude it from a planned tariff hike that would raise duties from 10% to 15%, warning that higher rates could damage its auto sector and jeopardise the $550 billion Strategic Investment Initiative tied to...
Thought? BlackRock investors rushed to pull their money out and withdrawals were suddenly locked. Halting withdrawals typically signals serious liquidity problems and can trigger panic in the financial system.
Look at how much US AI supercomputer cluster capacity was planned for/installed in UAE and Saudi Have not seen any strategists discuss yet what this means for US v. China AI race Seems important. Thoughts? https://t.co/23plcm9k0V
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
FT: US investors are increasingly asking Asian fund managers to carve out special vehicles so they can invest in the region without falling foul of American investment restrictions on Chinese technology. https://t.co/BxNIMQgnjK
The Economist: “China’s new target is too low. Judging by the country’s recent record, it will set a ceiling on the government’s efforts to revive demand, perpetuating the economy’s biggest problems.” https://t.co/r2SPU7niNb
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
John Jovanovic, chairman of the U.S. Export‑Import Bank, outlined a long‑term economic agenda that aligns with former President Trump’s focus on export resilience and strategic stockpiles. He detailed Project Vault, a demand‑driven critical‑mineral reserve designed to curb just‑in‑time vulnerabilities. Jovanovic also...
China’s response to the US‑Israeli strike on Iran was deliberately muted, reflecting its doctrinal opposition to regime‑change interventions and a focus on protecting Chinese nationals. Beijing issued a UN Security Council appeal and condemned the attacks, but paired diplomatic protest...
China’s annual Two Sessions opened with Premier Li presenting a modest Government Work Report that trims the GDP growth target to 4.5‑5% and signals limited fiscal stimulus. The report re‑affirms the push for technological self‑reliance and new quality productive forces,...
IDB Invest has committed $50 million to Ecuador’s inaugural biodiversity bond, part of a $120 million issuance also backed by the International Finance Corporation and Dutch development bank FMO. The bond, issued through Banco Bolivariano, will fund projects under its Biodiversity Financing Framework,...
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
China’s Communist Party frames its far‑reaching global actions as defensive, even as it expands military capabilities, maritime claims and economic influence. This self‑perception stems from a blend of historic victimhood and a belief in inherent peacefulness, which turns defensive intent...
South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung visited the Philippines on March 3‑4, 2026, marking the 77th anniversary of diplomatic ties and signing ten memoranda of understanding across AI, cybersecurity, defense, and energy. The two leaders pledged deeper cooperation on critical minerals, leveraging...
The Mumbai‑Ahmedabad high‑speed rail corridor’s budget has surged 83%, climbing to roughly Rs 2 trillion after land‑acquisition disputes inflated costs. Japan’s Official Development Assistance, which covered 81% of the original estimate, is unlikely to be extended, forcing India to tap its Consolidated...
In a recent CNN interview, political analyst Hajjar Chemali warned that Iran’s economy is spiraling toward collapse. He highlighted hyperinflation, a depreciating rial, and shrinking oil revenues as core drivers. Chemali also noted rising unemployment and mounting public unrest as...
Senegal announced the closure of 19 government agencies, eliminating roughly 1,000 public‑sector jobs. The move is projected to save at least 55 billion CFA francs over the next three years. The decision comes as the country's debt surged to 132% of...
The Iran–Israel war is not just a regional conflict. It may be part of a much larger global escalation cycle. The latest analysis looks at the wider strategic picture and how the current war could evolve into a broader confrontation involving major...
Four years into the war in Ukraine, the conflict has entered a new phase. In his latest analysis, David Murrin looks at the strategic direction of the war, the pressures shaping both sides, and what the next stage of the conflict...
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan designates Hong Kong as the vanguard of its “strong financial nation” strategy, shifting the city from a neutral capital bridge to a core component of Beijing’s financial security architecture. The 2026‑27 Hong Kong budget formalizes this...
While the ports seized by Panama weren't a direct military threat, they're strategically significant. Removing China from the equation makes Chinese activity in the region more difficult, especially as the U.S. Navy steps away from its role as global protector...
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
