Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
China Faces a France-Sized Demographic Loss that Threatens Coastal Growth: Analysts
China is projected to lose about 60 million people over the next decade, a decline roughly equal to France’s entire population. The shrinkage will hit the affluent coastal provinces that have driven most of China’s growth, reducing labor productivity and household consumption. Fiscal pressure is mounting as pension subsidies reached ¥2.9 trillion ($425 billion), about 10% of the national budget, prompting new childcare subsidies to stem the trend. While some wealthy provinces still posted modest gains, many industrial regions continue to see sharp population drops.
Taking the Three Seas Initiative to the Next Level
The Three Seas Initiative, now a 13‑nation coalition covering the Baltic, Black and Adriatic seas, has built an investment fund that posts roughly 15% annual returns but still operates without a permanent bureaucracy. With a combined GDP of over $3 trillion...
Bab Al-Mandeb Oil Traffic Halves After Houthi Attacks
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a strategic waterway just 30km wide and about 100km long, connnecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. As such, it is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the...
Iran Crisis: Pakistan’s Prominence and India’s Strategic Silence
The U.S.–Iran cease‑fire has been extended indefinitely, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, keeping global oil shipments constrained. On The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast, hosts highlighted Pakistan’s unexpected emergence as the primary mediator between Tehran and Washington. In contrast,...
EBRD Mulls Funding 189‑MW Ukrainian Onshore Wind Farm to Boost Post‑War Energy Security
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is evaluating financing options for a 189‑MW onshore wind project in Ukraine. The prospective investment aligns with Kyiv’s push to rebuild its power system and diversify away from fossil fuels after years...
China A‑shares Rise as Q1 Industrial Profit Surge Fuels Optimism
China's mainland A‑share markets nudged higher on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.16% to 4,086 and the Shenzhen Component up 0.37% to 14,996. The rally was anchored by a 15.5% year‑on‑year rise in first‑quarter industrial profits and a rebound...
Middle East Tensions Hit Saudi Plans on FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT
ABC’s Foreign Correspondent examined Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 amid escalating Middle‑East conflict. Reporter Matthew Doran returned during a fragile cease‑fire to assess whether the war sparked by the US and Israel’s actions against Iran threatens the Kingdom’s multi‑trillion‑dollar diversification plan....
Rubio: Iran Won’t Control Access to Hormuz Strait
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Hormuz: “If what they mean by opening the straits is, ‘yes, the straits are opened, as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission, or we will blow you up and you...
A Trade Row ‘Made in Europe’
The EU Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act introduces a “Made in Europe” rule that ties public funding in strategic sectors to a minimum share of European‑origin parts. The provision, aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, effectively forces Chinese electric‑vehicle and...
Botswana Tech Fund Sees Opportunity Where African Venture Capital Rarely Flows
The Botswana Tech Fund, anchored by billionaire Stephen Lansdown, has secured £10 million ($13.5 million) to invest in under‑funded Southern African startups. Its multi‑stage approach combines a pre‑seed accelerator offering £100 k ($135 k) cheques to about 100 companies over five years with growth‑stage...
Live Updates: Oil Prices Rise
Iran has signaled willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping if the United States ends its military blockade of Iranian ports and vessels. The proposal offers no concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program, which President Trump insists must...
Caspian and Central Asian Oil Markets Recalibrate Amid Trade Shifts
At the second Caspian and Central Asia Oil Trading and Logistics Forum in Baku, producers and traders highlighted a pivot toward flexible, short‑term trading as Asian refiners dominate demand. Long‑standing pipeline routes remain vital, but participants are exploring alternative corridors,...
The Global Week Ahead
The week of April 26‑May 3 2026 will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada all convene on monetary policy, with market consensus pointing to a pause on rate changes. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts...
Takaichi’s Realpolitik
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is accelerating a sweeping defense overhaul that includes amending Article 9, loosening weapons‑export restrictions, and expanding the Defense Industrial Base. She targets a 2% of GDP defense budget by 2028, a rise that aligns with U.S....
Mozambique and China Forge Strategic Pact to Develop Minerals, Energy and Security Capacity
Mozambique and China signed a comprehensive cooperation pact that blends defence collaboration, geological mapping and industrial investment to unlock the country’s vast natural‑resource frontier. The agreement targets the Rovuma Basin’s more than 5 trillion cubic metres of gas and untapped deposits...
Why Chinese Steel Imports Threaten Mexican Manufacturing Jobs
China’s steel sector is awash with excess capacity after a construction slowdown, prompting a flood of low‑priced steel into global markets. In 2025 China produced roughly 960 million tonnes of crude steel, dwarfing Latin America’s 55.5 million tonnes. Mexican officials warn that...
Iran-Israel Conflict Boosts Used EV Demand in Vietnam and Southeast Asia
The outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran has sparked a sharp rise in demand for second‑hand electric vehicles in Vietnam and other emerging Asian economies. Prices for used EVs in the $20,000‑$50,000 bracket have jumped 10‑20%,...
Asian Currencies Split as US‑Iran Tensions Heighten, Ringgit Up 12% While Rupee Slides 5%
As the United States faces a May 1 deadline to secure congressional approval for continued operations against Iran, Asian FX markets have fractured. The Malaysian ringgit, Chinese yuan and Singapore dollar posted double‑digit gains, while the Indian rupee, Japanese yen...
EU Faces ‘China Shock’ as EV Imports Drive Beijing’s Record Surplus with Bloc
The EU recorded a record $83 bn trade surplus with China in Q1 2026, driven by a surge in Chinese electric‑vehicle imports that doubled to $20.6 bn. Chinese EVs now account for about one‑third of China’s vehicle exports and represent 42% of...
EU Grants and a €1M Fund Boost Moldovan Startups Ahead of 2026 Summit
EU‑backed programs, including a €1 million fund from the EU4Innovation East project, are accelerating Moldova’s tech ecosystem, which now hosts over 300 startups that generated €39.5 million in revenue and attracted €15 million in investment in 2025. The support sets the stage for...
China Needs Higher Minimum Wages
Chinese policymakers argue that the nation’s entrenched overtime culture is unsustainable as workers log 2,500‑3,000 hours annually—roughly 60 hours per week. The government links this fatigue to weak domestic consumption, low fertility, and uneven growth, and is now urging higher...
China’s Manus Block Signals AI Software Now Under Scrutiny
China is blocking the Manus acquisition by Meta. A few things stand out: - China has historically been more opaque and less public in restricting foreign acquisitions of Chinese tech assets, while the US (CFIUS) has been more explicit and aggressive...
From Market Access to Investment: Europe’s Expanding Role in Pakistan
Pakistan is gearing up for the EU‑Pakistan Business Forum amid strained economic fundamentals, seeking to transform its long‑standing trade‑centric relationship with the European Union into a deeper investment partnership. The EU remains Pakistan's largest export destination, accounting for roughly 27.6%...
US-China Export Controls: The Choke Point Equilibrium
The United States and China are building parallel technology ecosystems, each leveraging distinct choke points in the global supply chain. Washington dominates upstream intangibles such as chip design software and advanced lithography, while Beijing controls downstream tangibles like rare earths...
Central Asians in Russia-Ukraine War: From Forced Recruitment to Economic Recruitment
The Ukrainian "I want to live" initiative identified 12,666 Central Asian citizens fighting for Russia since February 2022, more than double the 5,740 reported a year earlier. Uzbeks constitute the largest national group, while Tajik, Kyrgyz and Turkmen numbers also rose....
Scaling up Industrialization in Africa
The Iran war underscored Africa’s vulnerability to fuel imports, spotlighting Aliko Dangote’s refinery as a proof‑of‑concept for local processing. A new Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) report shows institutional capital on the continent has risen to over $2 trillion, largely from soaring...
‘Made in Europe’ Act: China Threatens Countermeasures Against EU Industrial Law
The European Union unveiled the draft Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) to boost domestic production, green technology adoption, and job creation, especially in strategic sectors like batteries and electric vehicles. The legislation would tie public procurement and subsidies to CO₂ and...
Brookfield's Insurance Float Fuels Global Real‑Asset Push, Including India
Brookfield Corporation is leveraging its $135 bn insurance platform and $3 bn annual fee earnings to accelerate investments in infrastructure, renewable energy and private‑equity assets worldwide. The firm’s recent MOUs in Andhra Pradesh signal a new wave of private‑equity‑style capital flowing into...
JPMorgan Cuts India Equity Rating to Neutral, Shifts Weight to Asian Tech Amid AI Surge
JPMorgan has downgraded Indian equities from overweight to neutral, warning of elevated valuations, earnings pressure and limited exposure to AI‑driven sectors. At the same time the bank upgraded its allocation to technology‑heavy markets, especially Taiwan, as artificial‑intelligence demand reshapes regional...
Oil Near $110 a Barrel Fuels Inflation and Current‑Account Strain in Emerging Markets
Oil prices lingered around $110 per barrel as Middle‑East tensions kept the Strait of Hormuz partially shut, pushing India’s rupee toward 95 per dollar and widening its trade deficit. The surge adds inflationary pressure to other oil‑importing emerging markets, forcing...
Rupee Slides to 94.27 per Dollar as Oil Spikes and FII Outflows Hit India
The rupee slipped to 94.27 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday, marking a fifth consecutive session of weakness. The decline was fueled by a 1.16% rise in Brent crude to $106.55 per barrel and foreign institutional investors...
Nigeria’s Private Sector Outlook 2026 Calls for Reforms to Spur Broad‑Based Growth
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group released its Private Sector Outlook 2026, and Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele warned that the next test is turning reforms into measurable growth. He outlined four priority pillars—policy predictability, lower business costs, capital access and public‑policy...
GLN International Launches Nationwide QR Payment Service in Vietnam via NAPAS Partnership
GLN International has activated a nationwide QR payment service in Vietnam through a partnership with the National Payments Corporation of Vietnam (NAPAS). The launch, unveiled on April 23, connects Korean fintech apps to Vietnam’s VietQR network, enabling seamless, currency‑free transactions...
China’s Economy Starts to Show Cracks From Iran War
Rising oil and natural‑gas prices from the Iran war are beginning to strain China’s manufacturing‑driven economy. Car sales fell in March and dropped further in April, while restaurants and hotels saw fewer patrons. In southern China, toy‑factory workers protested after...
US Lowers Automotive Steel Tariffs—Strings Attached
The United States announced it will halve the tariff on steel used in heavy‑duty vehicles imported from Mexico, dropping the rate from 50% to 25%. The move reverses a key element of the Trump‑era trade war and is intended to...
Amundi to Manage New €3 Billion EU-Backed Green Bond Blended Finance Fund
Amundi has been selected to manage the EU‑backed Global Green Bond Initiative (GGBI) Fund, a blended‑finance vehicle targeting up to €3 billion ($3.24 billion). The fund will combine roughly €1 billion ($1.08 billion) of equity from multilateral development banks with a goal of crowding...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Hormuz Closure Would Upend Global Finance and Economics
If they pull this off with the Strait of Hormuz closed for say 3+ months you can throw out everything you know about finance/economics https://t.co/nPZzQHiw9o
China Blocks Meta's $2 B Acquisition of AI Startup Manus
Meta Platforms' $2 billion bid to acquire AI startup Manus was ordered cancelled by China's National Development and Reform Commission, citing compliance with domestic laws. The move underscores Beijing's tightening grip on foreign takeovers of firms with Chinese ties and puts...
EM and APAC Gains Powered by EPS Growth, Not Multiples
EM & APAC YTD equity gains stem from EPS growth, not multiple expansion $EEM $VPL GS https://t.co/m4ZsyKrhZv
China Confirmed as Global Scientific Leader, Military Ascendancy Looms
China as world’s top scientific power was assumed, but now confirmed. How long before they rank as top military power as well?
The U.S. Started the War. The Rest of the World Is Feeling the Effects.
The United States’ initiation of an eight‑week war in Iran has rippled through the global economy, shutting textile mills in India and Bangladesh, grounding flights in Ireland, Poland and Germany, and prompting energy rationing in Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand....
Dollar System Stays Strong Despite Waning US Empire
The US empire may be weakening, but the dollar system is not Eurodollars are offshore credit money. Petrodollars are oil-trade recycling. Confusing them leads to major misunderstanding The dollar may not always dominate but it is getting stronger for now https://t.co/gb9CDsInFw
China Leverages Influence to Free 70 Ships, Thailand Follows
China trying to gain release of 70 of their ships from the Strait. Thailand seeking China’s help to get release of Thai ships.
Ghana Unveils $32 Billion AI Strategy to Drive Growth and Inclusion by 2035
Ghana's Ministry of Communication, Digital Technology and Innovations released an 84‑page National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2025‑2035, targeting a 500 bn cedi ($32 bn) boost to GDP by 2035. The plan hinges on a $300 m AI fund, curriculum reform and sector‑wide adoption, positioning...
Iran's Economy Stable, Matching Israel's Growth Pre-War
Contrary to the Western media spinners, who often fail to look at the data, the Iranian economy was not collapsing prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Indeed, its growth profile was not too much different than Isreal’s. https://t.co/Sag1AJGrAn
China’s Rare‑Earth Leverage Threatens U.S. Global
China. Leverage with rare earths. Trump-Xi meeting. Will Strait of Hormuz weaken Trump’s position? So Xi can get Taiwan. And/or will a G2 arise? What would others on both sides do then? Trade? Supply chains?
EU’s Surplus Driven by Ireland’s Tax Tricks, Not Trade
Indeed, without Ireland (tax avoiding US Pharma MNEs) the EU customs surplus disappears. the EU should be thought of similarly to Japan; its current account surplus (ex Ireland) comes from investment income not trade 1/2
Rising Inventories Boost China's Q1 GDP Despite Weak Demand
Many analysts have wondered how to reconcile China’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 with the relative weakness observed in growth in retail sales, fixed investment, and net exports. In my latest piece, I argue that a...
Hormuz Closure Sparks California Energy Crunch
The fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching California, triggering a serious energy crunch. Full Newsletter: #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/wXUuhw5ng7