Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
From Beverage Cans to Gyms: Verod’s Investment Playbook for West Africa
Danladi Verheijen co‑founded Verod Capital Management in 2008 to fill the private‑equity gap in West Africa. A early recycling‑cans deal gave the firm regional credibility, paving the way for larger bets such as Moniepoint, now an African unicorn. Verod’s playbook also embraces non‑traditional sectors like gyms, reflecting rising consumer health spending. Verheijen likens his disciplined, long‑distance‑running approach to patient capital deployment across the continent’s fragmented markets.
China’s Zero‑Tariff Policy Fuels African Export Surge at Zimbabwe Trade Fair
China will waive tariffs on goods from 53 African countries starting May 1, prompting Ethiopian, South African and Mozambican firms at the Zimbabwe International Trade Fair to gear up for a flood of Chinese orders. Exporters say the move could lift...
Trump Cancels Envoys to Islamabad, Halting Iran Talks Amid Blockade
President Donald Trump ordered the cancellation of a U.S. delegation to Islamabad, ending a second round of back‑channel talks with Iran. The move came as Washington’s naval blockade on Iranian ports is estimated to cost Tehran $400 million a day, while...
EU Approves $105 Billion Loan to Ukraine, Deepening Financial Commitment
The European Union formally approved a €90 billion ($105 billion) loan package for Ukraine, the bloc's largest single‑year financial aid to the war‑torn country. The decision came after Hungary lifted its veto, allowing the 20th round of EU sanctions against Russia to...
India's FX Reserves Rise to $703.3 Billion as West Asia Tensions Persist
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $2.3 billion increase in foreign exchange reserves, bringing the total to $703.3 billion for the week ended April 17. The rise comes as the RBI steps up dollar sales to support the rupee amid heightened geopolitical...
Mercosur‑EU Free Trade Deal Takes Effect May 1, Creating $22 Trillion Bilateral Bloc
The Mercosur‑EU free trade agreement becomes active on May 1, forming the world’s largest bilateral trade bloc with a combined market of 720 million people and roughly $22 trillion in GDP. The pact will gradually eliminate tariffs on about 95% of goods, boosting...
Investors Dive Back Into Frontier Markets After April Rally
Frontier market assets rebounded strongly in April, with the MSCI Frontier Markets Index climbing about 10% in dollar terms, its best monthly gain since 2009. Bond issuances saw heightened demand, highlighted by Congo’s debut sale attracting bids four times its...
China Warns EU to Remove Firms and Citizens From Russian Sanctions List
China’s Ministry of Commerce demanded the EU drop 27 Chinese firms and individuals from its latest sanctions list tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine, warning that the bloc would bear the consequences of non‑compliance. The EU justified the measures, accusing...
Beijing Lashes Out at EU After Chinese Firms Included in Latest Russia Sanctions
The European Union approved its 20th sanctions package against Russia, extending restrictions to Chinese companies accused of facilitating Moscow's war economy. Beijing’s commerce ministry issued a strongly worded protest, labeling the move “brazen” and warning the EU of consequences if...
Economy Could Suffer for Eight Months After Iran War Ends, Minister Says
Chief Secretary Darren Jones warned that the fallout from the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict will keep UK energy, food and airline prices elevated for at least eight months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The blockage of this key shipping lane has...
India's Real Estate Demand Holds Steady as Deal Value Plummets 63% in Q1 2026
India's property market showed resilient demand in Q1 2026, with commercial leasing up 6% YoY and new launches jumping 154%, even as overall deal value fell 63% to $763 million. The divergence highlights a market absorbing supply while investors trim large‑ticket...
New Zealand to Sign FTA with India Tomorrow; Luxon Calls It ‘Once-in-a-Generation Deal’
New Zealand will sign a free‑trade agreement with India on Monday, a deal Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called “once‑in‑a‑generation.” The pact opens New Zealand exporters to India’s 1.4 billion‑person market, the world’s third‑largest economy. Luxon highlighted gains for key sectors such as kiwifruit,...
Florida’s Influx of Rich Residents Is Killing the Middle Class and Housing Market
Florida attracted $20.65 billion in adjusted gross income from wealthy out‑of‑state migrants in 2023, the highest inflow of any state. The influx drove median single‑family home prices to about $420,000, pushing the price‑to‑income ratio above 5.4 and inflating the share of...
Vanguard's VEU ETF Gains Attention as Defensive Play Amid Global Uncertainty
Vanguard highlighted its FTSE All‑World ex‑US ETF (VEU) as a defensive diversification tool while announcing cash distributions for its Canadian ETFs. The fund’s 0.04% expense ratio, 2.9% dividend yield and exposure to 3,760 non‑U.S. stocks make it attractive amid geopolitical...
Jamaica Extends Mortgage Moratorium as Fuel Prices Surge, Deepening Post‑Hurricane Melissa Strain
Jamaica's National Housing Trust (NHT) announced a new three‑month extension for mortgage borrowers still reeling from Hurricane Melissa, while gasoline prices jumped $4.50 per litre to roughly $1.25‑$1.30 USD. The dual shock underscores the prolonged economic fallout in the Caribbean...
US Begins Mine‑Clearing Operations in Strait of Hormuz, Targeting $5 Trillion Oil Flow
The United States announced it is clearing Iranian‑laid mines from the Strait of Hormuz, with the Pentagon estimating a six‑month timeline. The effort seeks to reopen a chokepoint that moves roughly a fifth of world oil and LNG, while Iran...
Kenyan Banks Project Surge in Bad Loans on Impact of Geopolitical Tensions
Kenyan banks warn that non‑performing loans (NPLs) could climb above 16% of gross loans this year as fuel price spikes and Middle‑East tensions strain the economy. The Kenya Bankers Association notes NPLs have already edged up to 15.6% in March...
Sovereign Wealth Funds Are Africa’s Most Quiet Revolution
At the 39th African Union summit, leaders pledged to build a New African Financial Architecture that would channel mineral wealth into sovereign wealth funds. Africa controls roughly 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves, yet extraction profits, processing, and...
India Following Diversified Strategy to Boost Exports to China, Cut Import Dependence: Official
India is pursuing a diversified trade strategy that aims to boost its exports to China while reducing reliance on Chinese imports. Exports rose 37% to $19.5 bn in FY2025‑26, yet imports jumped 16% to $131.6 bn, expanding the trade deficit to $112.6 bn....
Geocultural Forces Reshaping China’s Economic Map
China’s latest provincial GDP per‑capita rankings show Jiangsu and Zhejiang leapfrogging Guangdong, reshaping the nation’s economic map. Guangdong’s share of top‑25 cities by GDP per capita has dropped from nine in 2005 to three today, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang have...
JP Morgan Downgrades India Equities to 'Neutral', Bets on Asia Tech Amid AI-Led Shift
JP Morgan has downgraded Indian equities to a Neutral stance, citing elevated valuations, earnings pressure and scant exposure to AI‑driven sectors. The firm is simultaneously boosting its allocation to technology‑heavy Asian markets, especially Taiwan, as AI momentum accelerates across the region....
Hormuz Disruption, $100 Oil Pose Risks to India's Inflation, Rupee: Union Bank
Union Bank’s latest report warns that ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a persistent "energy tax" on India’s economy. With the country importing roughly 85% of its crude, higher oil...
CEOs Eye More Investments in East Africa Region
Kenyan chief executives are gearing up for regional expansion, with 54% planning between one and more than four acquisitions in Tanzania, Uganda or Rwanda, according to a PwC survey of 4,454 CEOs. Intra‑EAC trade rose 18.4% to $14.33 billion in 2024,...
China Eyes Power of Siberia 2 Amid US Hormuz Threat
🔥🔥🔥Here, form September 11, 2025: "If you look at it from a Chinese point of view, it's not Iran who is going to close the Hormuz Strait. It's the US who is going to close Hormuz Strait, and therefore they...
China Shifts From Goods to Knowledge-Intensive Service Exports
FT op-ed: “No nation in the world exports as much merchandise as China. But having conquered global trade in goods, it is now rapidly moving up the international ranks as a leading exporter of knowledge-intensive services.” https://t.co/1hEm7NN3Bm
India Plans Global Diplomatic Push Across Europe, Africa, BRICS and Quad in May
India is launching an intensive diplomatic drive in May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi touring Europe for the India‑Nordic summit and bilateral talks in Italy and the Netherlands. The country will host the fourth Africa Summit on May 31 and is...
USD Swap Lines Weaponized: Past Freeze Boosted CIPS, Gold
RE: “Weaponizing USD swap lines” - last time the USD system rails were weaponized (2022 Russia FX reserves frozen), CIPS payments more than doubled in 2 years, and gold rose 3x in 4 years. Let’s watch. https://t.co/ydeBLxbx6r
Global Demand, Not US, Drives China's Export Surge
“Chinese exports are finding genuine new markets, not just new routes to America…Clearly the rest of the world wanted more Chinese items, too. American demand cannot explain away the bulk of China’s export boom over the past year.” https://t.co/HIZ20v7gcn
Shanghai Composite Falls 0.58% as Energy Metals and Lithium Rally Amid A‑Share Slump
China's A‑share market slipped in midday trade on April 24, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.58% to 4,069.37 points. Energy‑metal, lithium and semiconductor concepts posted gains, while the broader market saw the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices fall over 1% and...
Iran Seizes Two Container Ships, Undermining GCC Trade
Iran. Seizes two container ships. Where were they headed? Primary cargo? Hurting GCC. Not grabbing tankers.
Oil Won’t Hit $150–200; US Iran Blockade Proving Effective
Here's my discussion with @paulkrugman from March 19 where I argued oil prices won't go to $150 or $200 and recommended the US blockade Iran. It's as relevant to global oil markets today as it was back then. The blockade...
The FTA Cautionary Tale: What India-Korea Trade Warns Us About New Global Deals
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced a review of the 2010 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea, citing a growing trade imbalance. Bilateral trade has risen from $12 billion in 2009 to $27.4 billion in 2024, but Indian imports from...
Downgrade Exposes Weaknesses in China’s Credit Ratings
Caixin: "A sudden downgrade of a state-backed financing vehicle in eastern China is exposing weaknesses in the country’s credit rating industry, raising concerns over hidden risks in the local government debt market." https://t.co/HjgmNQTIdy
Rupee Slides 4.5% YTD, Hits All‑Time Lows
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The rupee has depreciated ~4.5% this year. Despite the RBI’s ongoing intervention, the rupee continues to visit ALL-TIME LOWS. Remember what Oscar Wilde wrote: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It is somewhat too sensational.”...
Analysts Say International Stocks May Outpace U.S. Equities in 2026
Bank of America’s chief global strategist Michael Hartnett and IMF forecasts point to a potential outperformance of international equities over U.S. stocks in 2026. The outlook hinges on the fallout from the U.S.–Iran conflict and the differential impact of AI...
China Could Replicate Eurodollar Model for Global CNY
1/8 Brendan Greeley on the development of the eurodollar. If Beijing truly wants CNY to be more widely used in international finance, the eurodollar market provides one potentially useful model to show how that might happen. https://t.co/OoBlDvaenX
Barrels for Debt: The Coming Middle East Reckoning - Podcast
The Macro Butler released a podcast episode titled “Barrels for Debt: The Coming Middle East Reckoning,” summarizing a weekly newsletter that warns of mounting sovereign debt risks across oil‑dependent Middle Eastern economies. The discussion highlights how falling oil prices and...
Govt to Rebalance Trade with the US
Deputy Prime Minister Suphajee Suthumpun reaffirmed Thailand’s commitment to deepen trade and investment ties with the United States after talks with US Ambassador Sean O’Neill. The government is pushing forward an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, addressing US Section 301 concerns and...
Brazilian Real Hits R$5.01 per Dollar, Propelling Ibovespa to Record 197,324 Points
The Brazilian real slipped to R$5.01 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since April 2024, as the Ibovespa rallied to a fresh all‑time high of 197,324 points. The move reflects a widening interest‑rate gap with the United States, stronger commodity...
Nickel Futures Near $19,200/Tonne as Supply Tightens and Costs Rise
Nickel futures rose to $19,125 per tonne on April 24, 2026, marking a near three‑month high. The rally reflects tighter global supply, a new Indonesian nickel ore pricing framework, and the International Nickel Study Group’s forecast of a 2026 deficit....
Chinese State Banks Boost Dollar Holdings, Fuel US Asset Demand
Gonna keep repeating this until it registers -- The PBOC may or may not be reducing its real Treasury holdings; it could just be moving out of US custodians But the state banks are clearly adding to their dollar portfolios, and thus...
Trump Pushes China Into Sanctions Ahead of Summit
Target Isn’t Just Iran - Trump Wants China To Submit Too https://t.co/QS77FdK6Yx Hengli, a private oil refinery in China, in US crosshairs… sanctions of size right before the Xi-Trump Trade Summit meetings mid-May. Not subtle.
SE Asia PE Deal Value Falls to $14.3bn As Exits Remain Constrained: Bain
Southeast Asia’s private‑equity market contracted in 2025, with total deal value dropping about 10% year‑on‑year to $14.3 billion across 84 transactions, according to Bain & Company’s 2026 report. Singapore remained the dominant hub, accounting for $7 billion of activity, while Malaysia stood...
Managed Trade Is All Washington Can Expect From China
Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, said managed trade was the best Washington could hope for given that Chinese leaders were “not going to put their hand on Mao’s Little Red Book and swear that, ‘We’re not going to be...
U.S. Shifts Africa Policy to Investment‑Led Model via Strategic Investment Working Group
The United States has overhauled its Africa strategy, shutting down USAID and launching the Strategic Investment Working Group (SIWG) to prioritize private‑capital infrastructure projects. The move ends decades of aid‑centric engagement and redirects billions toward commercial partnerships, sparking debate over...
Russia’s Economy Minister Admits ‘Reserves Have Largely Been Used up’ While Communist Lawmaker Warns of 1917-Style Revolution as GDP Shrinks
Russia’s economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov admitted that the fiscal reserves the state relied on to buffer wartime pressures have been largely exhausted, signaling a tougher macro environment. The central bank responded with a fifth consecutive half‑point rate cut, lowering the...
Asian Equities Wobble as US‑Iran Tensions Lift Oil, Mixed Market Moves
Asian stocks slipped on Friday as renewed US‑Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $106 a barrel. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.45% while China, Hong Kong and South Korea fell, leaving the MSCI Asia‑Pacific index up only 0.3% on the day.
Yuan Emerges as Safe Haven Amid Dollar Uncertainty
“Xi Jinping…said the country must have a ‘powerful’ currency. The yuan is still far from that. But it is becoming something else: a source of comfort for countries and firms disconcerted by America’s haphazard stewardship of the truly powerful dollar.” https://t.co/cZJuG30DSV
Our Ambitions Will Be Dead if We Depend on External Capital
Kenyan President William Ruto warned that Africa forfeits roughly $230 billion each year by exporting crude oil unrefined, a loss that could rise to over $500 billion if domestic refining and downstream processing were developed. He linked this value gap to the...
COAI DigiCom Summit Calls for AI‑Led Networks and Tougher Anti‑Fraud Measures in India
At the COAI DigiCom Summit 2026, regulators and industry leaders pressed for AI‑led telecom networks, a hybrid fiber‑and‑FWA broadband model and tighter anti‑fraud systems. The push comes as fixed‑line subscriptions reach 63 million (about 20% of households) and India eyes a...