Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
Witkoff and Kushner Heade to Pakistan Saturday, JD Vance on Standby
U.S. envoys Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Pakistan for a face‑to‑face meeting aimed at breaking the current diplomatic deadlock with Iran. The White House says the trip, with Senator JD Vance on standby in Washington, hopes to generate momentum before President Trump considers renewed military options. Recent statements from senior officials suggest modest progress, and the S&P 500 rose 0.7% on the news. Meanwhile, internal Iranian leadership tensions and Tehran’s refusal to negotiate directly with Americans add uncertainty to the effort.
Iran Keeps Exporting One Million Barrels Daily Despite Blockade
despite the us blockade, iran remains on track to export about one million barrels of oil per day in april. half of what they exported in march. but still a lot of money.
Bessent's Swap Lines Risk Accelerating US Deindustrialization
Unless Bessent also extends “permanent swap lines” to the US defense industrial base, this would only accelerate the de-industrialization of the US. Why invest in manufacturing in the US while Bessent is giving cheap USDs to support lower cost competitors around...
Editor's Choice: Energy Crisis Drives India Toward EVs as Asia's Auto Map Shifts
The Iran‑Russia conflict has tightened oil supplies to Asia, prompting Indian consumers to seek cheaper mobility alternatives. In March 2026, Indian electric‑vehicle (EV) registrations surged 82% year‑on‑year to 24,148 units, lifting the fiscal‑year total to 233,246 units. Local manufacturers Tata...
Bessent's Treasury Launches Politically Driven Financial Packages
Bessent's Treasury is pioneering a new kind of highly political financial agency. First there was the financial package for Millei in September 2025, now for UAE and other allies. https://t.co/DWcVQjLMhx
Hyundai Accelerates EV Push in China, Targets 500,000 Annual Sales
Hyundai Motor announced an $1.1 billion joint investment with BAIC, unveiled the IONIQ V and set a 500,000‑unit annual sales target in China, while Q1 sales grew 3.4% to $34.5 billion. The moves aim to revive the automaker’s China performance and expand its...
WTI Crude Futures Hover Near $95.60 Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
WTI crude futures traded near $95.60 during Asian hours on Friday, trimming earlier losses as geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz raised supply‑risk concerns. The price rebound follows U.S. interceptions of Iranian supertankers and stalled US‑Iran peace talks, reigniting...
How a Swap Line for Persian Gulf Allies Would Break with the Past
The Federal Reserve is considering extending dollar swap lines to Persian Gulf allies such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain, a departure from its traditional use as a crisis‑management tool for G7 and select emerging markets. Treasury Secretary...
45 African Nations Enact Data‑Protection Laws, Boosting Fintech and Crypto Compliance
Yellow Card’s 2026 report shows that 45 African nations have enacted data‑protection legislation, while 16 have adopted AI strategies, creating a more predictable regulatory environment for fintech, stablecoins and cross‑border payments.
Elon Musk Labels China's $8.4 B Orbital Data Center Push "Interesting"
Elon Musk posted a single word—"Interesting"—in response to news that Beijing‑backed startup Orbital Chenguang secured $8.4 billion in credit lines to build a gigawatt‑scale orbital data center by 2035. The reaction sparked a social‑media surge, highlighting the emerging U.S.–China rivalry over...
Germany’s Merz Says No ‘Immediate’ Ukraine EU Membership, Floats Kyiv Joining Meetings
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told an EU summit that Ukraine cannot join the bloc immediately, but could attend European Council meetings without voting rights. The statement comes as Hungary’s nationalist opposition eases after Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat, reviving hopes for faster progress....
The Fallout: How the Iran War Is Wreaking Havoc in Africa
The IMF’s April Regional Economic Outlook warns that the Iran war will shave 0.3 percentage points off Sub‑Saharan Africa’s growth, lowering the 2026 forecast to 4.3% and pushing median inflation to about 5%. Currency depreciation, shrinking foreign aid and tighter...
The Case for Making Up with China, and Which Car Company Is Winning the Energy Crisis?
The episode argues that the United States should reconcile with China, emphasizing that improved relations could act as a massive tax cut by leveraging China's unparalleled manufacturing and supply chain capabilities alongside America's strengths in IP, innovation, and capital. The...
Why Are the Saudis Sitting Out the War With Iran?
Saudi Arabia is watching the U.S.-Israel war with Iran from the sidelines while its Vision 2030 megaprojects face budget cuts and timeline extensions. The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund is pivoting toward renewables, advanced manufacturing, logistics and tourism, and Riyadh continues to...
Why Investment in Caspian Transit Routes Is Crucial for Energy Security
Investment in Caspian transit routes is accelerating as the Middle Corridor emerges as a strategic alternative to war‑disrupted traditional pipelines. Stakeholders at the Baku forum highlighted new assessments of the CPC, BTC and Baku‑Supsa pipelines, alongside plans for a Turkmen‑Afghanistan‑Pakistan...
Rules for the Rest of Us
The article argues that the Global South’s alternative to existing international rules is not unfettered freedom but a coordinated exercise of collective power. It highlights how Chile, under former President Gabriel Boric, leveraged regional alliances and shared frameworks to amplify its...
Strait of Hormuz Declared Open, yet Traffic Declines
He might still be in X jail, but interesting note from @sonusvarghese here. Last Friday (April 17th), President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Over the past week, tanker crossings across the Strait have...
Daily Memo: EU Announces New Sanctions on Russia
The European Union approved its 20th sanctions package against Russia, widening curbs on oil exports. The new measures place 46 additional tankers on a sanctions list and prohibit technical maintenance and related services for Russian tankers and icebreakers. Transactions with...
China to Tighten Rules on US Tech Investment
Chinese regulators, led by the National Development and Reform Commission, are set to require government approval for any U.S. investment in sensitive technology firms, including AI startups. Private tech companies have been instructed to reject U.S.-linked capital in funding rounds...
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in NY Times Article
The New York Times cited Atlantic Council experts Alisha Chhangani and Josh Lipsky in a piece on China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and its growing role in Iran’s trade. Chhangani’s data show CIPS transaction volumes with Iran surged to...
Donovan and Nikoladze Cited in FXStreet Article Stating that Central Banks Building up Gold Reserves to Shield From Sanctions or...
In a recent FXStreet analysis, Atlantic Council experts Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze highlighted a surge in central‑bank gold purchases. They argue that banks are stockpiling the metal to hedge against potential sanctions and a looming financial crisis. The commentary...
Sovereign Debt Reset Barely Pauses for Reflection
The IMF and World Bank convened their spring meetings without headline‑grabbing defaults, but sovereign‑debt initiatives dominated the agenda. An official‑private sector forum, born out of the Russia‑Ukraine crisis, reported that five restructuring cases are near completion, with Ethiopia the only...
Chhangani’s CIPS Data and Lipsky Cited in Article by The Economist Discussing the Positive Impacts of the America-Iran War on...
The Economist cited research from Chhangani and Lipsky showing that the ongoing America‑Iran conflict has boosted the adoption of China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Data indicate a roughly 40% jump in CIPS transaction volume as Iranian firms seek alternatives...
Atlantic Council Front Page Event with World Bank Group President Ajay Banga Featured in Reuters Article on Funds for Countries...
World Bank President Ajay Banga announced at an Atlantic Council Front Page event that the institution could mobilize up to $100 billion to support countries devastated by war. The proposed financing package would combine concessional loans, grants, and guarantees to spur...
Pakistan's Energy Shock Deepens as Fuel Imports, Inflation and Hormuz Blockade Strain Economy
Pakistan's power sector is confronting a repeat energy shock. Circular debt topped Rs2.4 trillion in 2025, tariffs jumped 155% since 2021 and oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the country toward...
Philippine Peso Drops to 60.70 per Dollar After BSP Raises Rate to 4.5%
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday. The move pushed the Philippine peso to P60.70 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level in a month, and sparked a sell‑off...
Beyond the Headlines: Where Federated Hermes Sees Real Opportunity in the Asia Ex-Japan Region
Federated Hermes highlights a compelling investment case across the Asia ex‑Japan region, focusing on deep‑value opportunities in China, a multi‑year re‑rating in South Korea, and contrarian upside in Thailand. The firm points to record‑low price‑to‑earnings multiples in China, single‑digit P/E...
Vietnam Pivots Toward China, Abandoning US Swing-State Role
Vietnam was the "swing state" of SE Asia that the US preferred. Until now. On the heels of President To Lam's state visit to Beijing, the winds seem to be shifting. The latest from @CarnegieChina https://t.co/JFXuV6zPnI https://t.co/MAKSuoFyIY
Kremlin Leaves Putin's Miami G20 Attendance Uncertain
Kremlin says Putin could - or could not - go to the G20 in Miami.
Helping Iran, China Is a Party in the War
China is covertly bolstering Iran’s war capabilities despite publicly claiming neutrality. Recent investigations reveal Beijing supplied a commercial reconnaissance satellite, air‑defense missiles, and large quantities of sodium perchlorate for solid‑fuel rockets. Additional reports cite Chinese AI firms providing geospatial data...
Next Africa: Could Dangote's IPO Transform Investing? (Podcast)
Aliko Dangote's conglomerate is preparing a roughly $10 billion initial public offering, the biggest ever on an African exchange. The Bloomberg podcast examines how the listing could reshape capital flows into the continent and set a new valuation benchmark for local...
Mercosur: MEPs Letter Warns of Concentration Risk Due to Quota Allocation System
The European Parliament is circulating a letter warning that the EU‑Mercosur trade deal’s quota allocation system could concentrate beef and poultry imports in the hands of a few large South American agribusinesses, especially Brazil’s JBS. The agreement, set to enter...
Merryn Talks Money: Markets in a Permanent Mini-Crisis (Podcast)
In the latest "Merryn Talks Money" episode, hosts Merryn Somerset Webb and John Stepek argue that markets are stuck in a perpetual state of "mini‑crises" driven by relentless geopolitical turbulence. They note that corporate earnings are sending mixed signals, while the UK...
US and Iran Stuck in Tense Limbo, Hormuz Risk
Told @business News Now: both the US and Iran are in purgatory. There’s no war, but there’s nothing close to peace. Tensions are high and the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is real, with major implications for...
China Opens Government Bond Futures to Select Foreign Investors in Reform Push
China will permit qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) to trade government bond futures for hedging, starting Friday. The move expands foreign access to yuan‑denominated derivatives, aiming to broaden investment scope and improve rate‑risk management. China’s bond market exceeds 200 trillion yuan...
Export Collapse Boosts US/Canada Prices, yet Halts Risk Oversupply
As Persian Gulf and Russian exports collapse, global prices will rise, which should benefit the U.S. and Canada. However, if exports are halted to keep gasoline prices down, then North America would become oversupplied. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/9vsV5HAcmy https://t.co/34b7yklfSr
Top Links 1082 China's Oil Reserves. Global Hunger. America's Megadrought & Adorno V. Gehlen.
The latest roundup highlights four distinct developments: China’s proven oil reserves have expanded, pushing the nation closer to energy self‑sufficiency; the United Nations warns that global hunger now affects over 800 million people, a record high; the United States is grappling...
The Strait of Hormuz Energy Crisis Shows the EU’s Carbon Pricing Is the Right Approach
Recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global energy prices, forcing Europe to spend an additional €24 billion (about $26 billion) on fossil fuel imports. In response, the European Commission unveiled the AccelerateEU package, a set of non‑binding short‑term...
Iran War, U.S. Court’s Tariff Ruling Delays India Trade Deal — but a Bigger Risk Lies Ahead
The India‑U.S. trade agreement remains unsigned, with negotiations stalled by the Iran war and a recent U.S. court ruling that upheld a 10% baseline tariff for all partners. India faces a June deadline for the Section 301 investigation, after which higher...
Rupee Logs Steepest Weekly Drop in over Three Years as Iran War Worries Resurface
The Indian rupee fell 1.4% to 94.2475 per dollar, marking its steepest weekly decline since September 2022. The slide was triggered by renewed worries that the U.S.–Iran ceasefire could collapse, pushing Brent crude up 2% to $107 per barrel. RBI’s short‑term...
India's FY26 Growth Forecast Slashed to 5.9% as West Asia War and Tariff Doubts Bite
Goldman Sachs and Moody’s cut India’s FY26 growth projection to 5.9%–6% after the Iran‑Israel war drove energy prices higher and trade‑policy doubts resurfaced. RBI policymakers kept the repo rate at 5.25% citing the same geopolitical shock, warning that prolonged supply‑side...
Indian Rupee Slides to 10‑Year Low as Oil Prices Surge and Iran War Fuels Outflows
The Indian rupee slipped to a 10‑year trough of 94.25 per U.S. dollar, driven by a surge in crude oil prices above $105 a barrel and heightened capital outflows linked to the Iran conflict. The slide marks a 4.5% depreciation...
PIMCO Extends Over $10 Billion in Private Loans to Gulf States Amid Dollar Shortage
Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) has lent over $10 billion to sovereign and quasi‑sovereign borrowers in the Gulf, chiefly Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Kuwait, via private placements. The financing surge comes as the war in Iran has strained hard‑currency liquidity, prompting Gulf...
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire While Keeping Hormuz Blockade, Sending Oil Prices Higher
President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire while preserving a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The move tightens Iran's oil exports, lifts Brent crude by several percent and fuels higher pump prices worldwide. European...
China Faces Growing Internal Pressure
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are slated to meet in person later this spring after a brief postponement linked to the Iran conflict. While the summit will be framed as a test of great‑power competition, analysts...
China Bars Unapproved US Tech Investment After Meta Deal
China to Curb US Investment in Tech Companies After Meta Deal Agencies including the National Development and Reform Commission have told several private firms they should reject capital of US origin in funding rounds unless explicitly approved https://t.co/2vTEIkjAgp
Financial Markets and Economic Resilience
A recent New York Fed Liberty Street Economics paper classifies emerging markets by MSCI stock‑market maturity, separating a "Core" group of 22 economies from a larger "Periphery" set. The analysis shows Core markets—such as India, Korea and Taiwan—have posted faster...
Trump’s War Is a Clear and Present Danger to Your Future
World markets are losing the petrodollar lifeline that Gulf sovereign‑wealth funds and central‑bank reserves have provided. The Gulf’s $6 trillion in sovereign‑wealth assets and $1.7 trillion in foreign‑exchange reserves, twice the size of China’s combined reserves, are at risk after President Trump’s...
Dim Sum Bond Borrowing Hits Record RMB300bn This Year
FT: "Total borrowing in so-called dim sum bonds — issued outside the mainland, mostly in Hong Kong, and denominated in renminbi — has hit Rmb300bn ($44 bn) so far this year, more than twice the amount at this point in...
China’s Q1 Income Growth Lags Behind 5% GDP Expansion
1/2 Yicai: "Chinese residents’ income growth slowed to 4.9% in nominal terms and 4.0% in real terms in the first quarter, even as the country’s economy expanded by a better-than-expected 5%." This is one percentage point less income growth than last year. https://t.co/MiWs3mdvcf