Turkmen Gas Is Back on Turkey’s Agenda

Why It Matters

Securing Turkmen gas could reduce Turkey’s exposure to volatile Iranian supplies and help the EU meet its goal of ending Russian imports. However, the $12 billion pipeline’s financing risk and Turkmenistan’s preference for China create uncertainty for investors.

Key Takeaways

• Turkey lost 15% gas imports from Iran after March halt
• Turkmen gas pipeline cost estimated at $12 billion
• Trans‑Caspian route could deliver up to 3 bcm to Turkey by 2025
• Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor operates at roughly 50% capacity
• Turkmenistan favors China, exporting 460 bcm since 2009

Pulse Analysis

The sudden suspension of Iranian gas deliveries has left Turkey scrambling for alternatives. Iran previously supplied roughly 15 percent of Turkey’s natural‑gas mix, and the loss coincides with a 70 percent surge in wholesale gas prices driven by Gulf tensions. With more than 80 percent of its consumption imported, Ankara faces a dual pressure: contain soaring costs and safeguard energy security ahead of the EU’s 2027 deadline to phase out Russian gas. These dynamics have revived interest in Turkmenistan’s vast reserves as a potential lifeline.

Turkey’s energy minister has called for a revived trans‑Caspian pipeline, a project estimated at $12 billion and roughly 300 kilometres long. The route would link Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan’s network, bypassing Iran and Russia, but it must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor currently runs at about 50 percent capacity, limiting immediate transit options, while both Iran and Russia view a Caspian crossing as a threat to their own export ambitions. Securing financing will require investors to tolerate high political risk and uncertain returns.

Meanwhile, Turkmenistan’s strategic calculus remains tilted toward China, which has already received 460 bcm of Turkmen gas since 2009 and is slated to absorb the next 10 bcm from the Galkynysh field. This China‑first approach dampens Ankara’s hopes of a swift supply deal and raises the specter of a competing pipeline to the east. For the EU, a functional trans‑Caspian link could diversify imports and reduce reliance on Russian and Middle‑East routes, but its realization hinges on Turkmen willingness to shift volumes away from China and on a stable investment climate. The outcome will shape regional energy geopolitics for the next decade.