Today's Emerging Markets Pulse
Indonesia launches state‑run export hub to curb under‑invoicing and capture $150B revenue
President Prabowo Subianto announced that exports of selected raw materials will be routed through a new state‑owned enterprise under the Danantara holding. The move targets under‑invoicing, which the government says cost $6.5 billion in 2016, and aims to generate up to $150 billion in annual revenue.
ADB Cuts Growth Outlook of Asia to 4.7% as West Asia Disruptions Deepen
The Asian Development Bank lowered its 2026 growth outlook for Asia and the Pacific to 4.7%, down from 5.1%, citing prolonged disruptions in West Asia that are driving higher energy prices and tighter financial conditions. Inflation expectations were sharply revised upward to 5.2% for the year. The bank assumes oil will average $96 a barrel in 2026, well above the pre‑conflict $69 level, before easing to $80 in 2027. ADB outlined four policy levers—energy‑price pass‑through, targeted fiscal support, demand‑side measures, and transport incentives—to stabilise the region.
India's GDP Surged 9x; Slower Growth Ahead, Still Profitable
Indian GDP 📈 Year 2000: $468 Billion (USD) Year 2025: $4.19+ Trillion (USD) A 9x growth in the size in 25 years The next 25 years we won't get a similar growth rate & it will affect the stock market returns as well Be informed &...
Iran’s Oil Storage Clock Is Ticking Down Fast
Iran’s onshore crude storage is nearing capacity, with Kpler data showing only 12‑22 days of unused space as of April 27‑28, 2026. JPMorgan analysts expect the first production cuts within 15‑16 days and a full export‑equivalent shut‑in by roughly day...
Vietnam at 51: From the Ashes of War to the Arc of a New World Order
April 30 2026 marks 51 years since Saigon fell, highlighting Vietnam’s shift from a war‑torn, centrally planned state to a market‑oriented economy integrated into global supply chains. The Đổi Mới reforms unleashed private enterprise, driving GDP to roughly $514 billion in 2025 and annual growth...
Chips, Oil and Iran: Why US Is Raising Pressure on China Before Xi-Trump Talks
The United States is intensifying a multi‑front pressure campaign on China ahead of President Trump’s planned mid‑May summit with Xi Jinping. The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced 20 new export‑control measures that would tighten allies’ sales of advanced semiconductor equipment...
The United States Is Losing the Race for Central Asia’s Critical Minerals
The United States is falling behind in securing Central Asia’s critical‑mineral wealth, a region valued at roughly $46 trillion and home to at least 32 of the 60 U.S.‑identified critical minerals. While China and Russia together command about 70 percent of the...
Emerging Markets Shift to Gold as Dollar Reserves Shrink
Deutsche’s George Saravelos highlights today that “the share of US dollars in central bank reserves is once more in decline. It has fallen from over 60% to just 40%, while gold’s share has tripled from its lows to 30% today.” And: “...
German Finance Minister Doesn’t Rule Out Emergency Borrowing as ‘Trump’s Irresponsible War’ Bites
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned that Germany will need unprecedented borrowing over the next four years, with a budget plan calling for €200 billion ($215 billion) next year and €600 billion ($645 billion) over the following three years. About €85 billion ($91 billion) will be...
Why Did the UAE Leave OPEC?
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, framing the decision as a policy move designed to limit disruption for producers and consumers. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the timing minimizes price impact and aligns with rising...
The Bangladesh-US Trade Deal Is a Litmus Test for Dhaka’s Strategic Autonomy
The U.S.–Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed days before Bangladesh’s February elections, expands market access to the United States but embeds clauses that restrict dealings with “non‑market economies” and bind Dhaka to U.S. export‑control, energy and defense rules. Those...
Meta's China Risk Low Despite $21.8B Ad Spend
What is Meta’s China exposure? China has ordered Meta to reverse its Manus acquisition, threatening technology transfers and advertising revenue. It invites an interesting question: what is Meta's exposure to China? Despite an estimated $21.8BN in advertising revenue in the country,...
UAE Exit From OPEC Signals New Era for Aviation and Tourism
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC, signaling a strategic pivot from oil to aviation and tourism as primary growth engines. By exiting the cartel, the UAE hopes to gain flexibility in energy policy that could lower jet‑fuel...
Iran War Triggers UN Blockade, Pushes Brent Oil Over 50% Higher
The Iran war has sparked a United Nations‑backed blockade that cut global oil supply by about 10 million barrels per day, sending Brent crude more than 50% above its start‑of‑year level. The shock is reverberating through emerging economies, tightening fiscal space...
UN's ECLAC Cuts Latin America 2026 Growth Outlook to 2.2% Amid Middle East Conflict
The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reduced its 2026 regional growth projection to 2.2%, down from 2.3% in December, blaming the Middle East war and soaring oil prices. The downgrade highlights how geopolitical shocks are...
UAE Leaves OPEC, Boosts Oil Prices and Sparks Rally in Asian Stocks
The United Arab Emirates announced it will quit OPEC on May 1, freeing it to pump up to 5 million barrels per day. The move lifted Brent crude past $110 a barrel and sent Asian equity indices higher as regional oil exporters...
Why China May Benefit From the UAE’s Opec Withdrawal Amid Iran War Oil Crisis
The United Arab Emirates will leave Opec on May 1, ending its role as the bloc’s third‑largest producer, which accounts for roughly 12% of total output. Analysts expect the move to give China greater flexibility to source more Emirati crude, potentially...
EM Lens: Investors Aren’t Packing Their EM Bags Just Yet
In this episode of Emerging Markets Lens, senior EM fixed‑income manager Araf Joshi discusses how the Iran‑related oil shock is tightening LNG supplies and pressuring Asian and African economies, leading to higher bond spreads and fiscal stimulus measures. He contrasts...
Paramount Seeks FCC Waiver to Allow $24 Bn Foreign Investment in Warner Bros. Discovery Merger
Paramount Skydance has filed a petition with the Federal Communications Commission to exceed the 25% foreign‑ownership ceiling so it can incorporate $24 bn from Saudi, Abu Dhabi and Qatari sovereign‑wealth funds into its $81 bn takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. The move,...
India Exports Rise in Early April Despite West Asia Crisis: Piyush Goyal
India's exports rose in the first three weeks of April compared with the same period last year, despite the West Asia conflict. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said exporters remain enthusiastic and are using alternative routes around the Strait of Hormuz....
Thailand Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.6% as Oil Prices Jump to $91 Amid Middle East Conflict
Thailand's Finance Ministry slashed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 2% and raised the crude oil price outlook to $91 a barrel, citing the spillover of the Iran‑Israel war into global commodity markets. The downgrade underscores the vulnerability...
China's Responsible Power Image Raises Expectations for Action
"US unpredictability has allowed China to capitalize on its positioning as the “responsible great power”. Paradoxically, the more China wins the perception game, the more likely expectations will rise for Beijing to deliver not just words but to demonstrate with its deeds." @ChongJaIan argues that the gap between words and deeds could catch up to Beijing as it...
Asian Development Bank Cuts Regional Growth Forecasts on Impact of War in West Asia
The Asian Development Bank slashed its growth outlook for Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, down from 5.1% for both years, citing the war in West Asia. It lifted its inflation projection to 5.2%...
Indian Rupee Slides as Oil Prices Surge, Losing 3.5% Since West Asia Conflict
The Indian rupee weakened by roughly 3.5% against the U.S. dollar after crude oil prices jumped from $63 to above $114 per barrel, a shift tied to the West Asia war. Reserve Bank of India officials warned of heightened external...
IATA Urges African Governments to Elevate Aviation as Driver of Growth and Integration
The International Air Transport Association called on African governments to treat aviation as essential infrastructure, presenting a four‑pillar strategy focused on safety, cost, regulatory ease, and sustainability. Accident rates fell to 7.86 per million sectors in 2025 but still lag...
UAE’s OPEC Exit Signals New Global Oil Order
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+, citing a need for greater production flexibility that aligns with its broader diversification into logistics, finance, aviation, and technology. The move highlights growing strategic divergence among Gulf states, as...
Oil Climbs Above $100 as US Pressures Iran
Oil prices are higher again as the US doubles down on Iran: With news that America's "blockade of the blockade" is now targeting Iranian ports longer-term, WTI oil has followed Brent in trading above $100 (CNBC table below). #economy #oil #markets
OFAC Confirms Hormuz Toll Payments May Trigger Sanctions
OFAC confirms what I’ve been been saying for weeks U.S. Treasury Warns Hormuz ‘Toll’ Payments to Iran Could Trigger Sanctions https://t.co/trxwCyJZO3
Panama Reaffirms ‘Neutrality’ of Canal Amid Middle East War
Panama reaffirmed the canal’s neutrality on April 28 as the Middle East war forces a surge in alternative shipping routes. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil and gas carriers to the Panama Canal, lifting daily transits...
Iran Threatens Military Escalation over US Naval Blockade
Ha! Exactly what we foreshadowed in the Vanda Insights client briefing note earlier today. Iran can re-escalate militarily in the face of a continued US naval blockade. @VandaInsights
Trump's Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Supply Chains
Trump. Extend Hormuz blockade. With no care of what it means. What will global supply chains do? And the global economy?
Interview with AGAGA
Alasdair Macleod argues that China’s massive household savings—estimated at $30 trillion—combined with new gold‑accumulation accounts could enable the country to purchase the world’s entire annual gold output. He contrasts the All‑In Sustaining Cost of top gold miners, which yields roughly $54,000...
Chinese EVs Already Rolling in El Paso Amid Ban Push
I covet a Chinese EV. The U.S. wants to ban China’s high-tech, low-cost cars. They’re already here in El Paso. https://t.co/rMpBgCaqPG
China Pilots Crackdown on Debt‑laden Zombie Firms
1/9 Interesting SCMP article: "China’s top market regulator is intensifying its crackdown on debt-laden “zombie companies” – rolling out a pilot programme in seven economic hubs to facilitate the forced exit of unprofitable firms." https://t.co/MyTz0VUKAc
Bank of Thailand Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged
The Bank of Thailand left its one‑day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.00%, the lowest level in more than three years, after six consecutive cuts that shaved 150 basis points off the policy rate. The decision reflects concerns that higher oil...
China Pivots to Service Consumption for Growth
1/5 Caixin: "Boosting domestic demand remains paramount, but the strategy is evolving. Driven by a resilient service sector that outpaced overall retail sales in the first quarter, Beijing is pivoting toward service consumption." https://t.co/eoPwiFskb4
Nigeria Rebound Exposes Global Benchmark Blind Spot in African Markets
Nigeria’s equity market posted a sharp rebound in April 2026, rallying over 15% after months of underperformance. The surge highlighted a systematic blind spot in global benchmark indices, which largely exclude or underweight Nigerian and broader African equities. Analysts argue...
Hormuz Crisis Revives Thailand’s Land Bridge Plan but Business Case Still Lacking
Thailand is reviving its $30 billion land‑bridge plan that would link ports on the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, a proposal gaining urgency after Iran’s virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul says a special...
Global Monster Banks
Union Bank of India’s latest risk report links the Strait of Hormuz blockage to a sharp rise in oil prices and a looming helium shortage. Attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant have halted about 14% of global helium output, cutting off...
Are Investors Underestimating Emerging Markets?
In this episode, Andrew Van Sickle talks with Charles Gillings, manager of the Utilico Emerging Markets Trust, about why investors may be undervaluing emerging markets and the fund’s sector‑focused, infrastructure‑centric approach. Gillings explains that the recent EM rally was driven...
Are Investors Underestimating Emerging Markets? MoneyWeek Talks
Charles Jillings, co‑fund manager of Utilico Emerging Markets Trust, highlighted the resilience of emerging economies amid Trump‑era tariffs and lingering fallout from the Iran conflict. He argued that markets such as Brazil and the Philippines remain undervalued despite solid growth...
UAE Liquidity Aid Could Cement Dollar Dominance
China probably is short on liquidity If the UAE provides it via US swap lines, that strengthens US dollar dominance, right @izakaminska ? #China #DollarSystem #Geoeconomics #Yuan #GlobalFinance
US-Israeli Conflict Fuels Record Yuan Surge
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China’s currency is gaining. Cross-border portfolio flows hit $712 BILLION in March (+40% vs last year), while the yuan’s share of China’s international transactions rose above 56%, the highest on record. CHINA = BIG WINNER....
Concert Tourism Triggers 60‑80% Hotel Occupancy Surges in India's Tier‑II Cities
Concert‑driven travel is turning India's tier‑II cities into short‑burst hospitality hotspots, with hotels seeing 60‑80% occupancy jumps and up to $1.8 million in weekend revenue. The trend reflects a broader shift toward experience‑led tourism and a new revenue engine for the...
China Projects 4.5% Growth in 2026, Vows Stronger Energy Security Amid Iran Talks
China's leadership announced a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5% and a new push for energy security while Iran peace talks stall. The dual strategy aims to shield the world’s second‑largest economy from external shocks and sustain global commodity demand.
The U.S. Wants to Ban China’s High-Tech Cars, but They’re Already Here in El Paso
Chinese automakers Geely, BYD and Great Wall are selling affordable high‑tech vehicles in Ciudad Juárez, just five miles from El Paso, where U.S. consumers can easily cross the border to purchase them. The Geely EX2 electric compact starts around $20,000 and the...
China Plans Reforms and Technology Investment to Expand Service Sector by 2030
China announced a plan to expand its service sector to 100 trillion yuan—about $14.6 trillion—by 2030. The strategy combines regulatory reforms, digital‑technology investment, and greater openness to foreign cooperation. Key focus areas include producer services that back high‑end manufacturing, AI‑driven software upgrades,...
Scoring the Jensen-Dwarkesh Debate
In a recent podcast, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sparred with interviewer Dwarkesh Patel over U.S. export controls on AI chips to China. Patel argued that maintaining a technological edge is vital for national security, while Huang suggested China could achieve...
Brookfield Corp Leverages $135B Insurance Float to Boost Private‑Equity Platform
Brookfield Corporation is using its $135 billion insurance‑asset base and fresh MOUs in India to expand its private‑equity and infrastructure platform. The move adds long‑duration capital to a business that already generates $3 billion in fee‑related earnings, positioning the hybrid asset‑manager for...
India's 6.7% Growth Forecast Hides Deepening Informal Sector Slump, Poll Finds
A Reuters poll of 54 economists projects India's fiscal‑year GDP to rise 6.7%, unchanged from March forecasts. Yet the same poll warns that the country's vast informal sector, which contributes almost half of official GDP, is under acute pressure from...
Tullow Oil Shares Jump Over 9% as West African Crude Hits $130/Barrel Record
Tullow Oil Plc’s shares jumped over 9% on the London Stock Exchange after the company announced that its West African crude sold at a record $130 per barrel in April, the highest price ever for a Tullow cargo. The premium...